Grace period for the Phillies is over

[jemagee]

Whether or not he would have turned it down - one year at 15 million (or even 18 million) is better than 2 years at 22 million because it's one freaking year...it's a sunk cost for one year and if he doesn't earn it - he's gone - what if he doesn't earn the 11 million next year - you're on the hook for another 11 million the year after...the fact that almost NO ONE offered arbitration this year smells a lot like collusion to me

[Derek Bodner]

I understand the whole picks thing, but what are the chances Burrell would have turned down arbitraction? 

It has sounded like the team wasnt to go in a different direction, and its hard to assume a player will turn down arbitration. 

I think last year 3 players offered arbitration accepted it.  3.  I'll try to find the exact numbers.

Burrell's going to want a multi-year deal.  The odds are very low he would have accepted, IMO.

Offering arbitration leads to the following, IMO:
- Burrell signs elsewhere, you get two first round draft picks.
- Burrell accepts arbitration.  We get him for 1 year, not having to worry about a multi-year deal and the problems that come with it.

There's no guarantee that Burrell's going to get a contract that you're happy with in FA.  And the other possibility, that he leaves for nothing?  That's certainly not a win.

[bebopdeluxe]

But here's the thing, jem...I think that - because of the economy and the aversion by many teams to spend big $$$ on anything but top-shelf talent - there are going to be a LOT of guys who are going to take short-term deals (1-2 years) to try to prove themselves, and then get bigger money when the economy improves (similar to what Lohse did).  I think that Burrell falls right into that catagory.  So, why would the Phillies commit to arbitration - and thereby paying Burrell probably $4-5 million MORE that he will likely get on the open market - as opposed to letting the market set the price, and then see if they can THEN invoke the ol' "hometown discount"?

If a team like, say, the Rays offer him a 2 year/$23 million contract (with a 3rd year option based on reasonably achievable numbers), would the Phillies come back give him a deal with the numbers close to  those (say, 2 years/$20 million) and a 3rd year option that has slightly higher triggers?

Doesn't that make sense?

If we all agree that the Phillies would have been on the hook for $15-16 million next season in arbitration with Burrell, and the market is nowhere near that number, why would we still give him that number - especially when, by giving him arbitration, it would force another team to REALLY pay above-market to sign him...and that team would have to give up picks to boot?

Forget a hometown discount...the Phillies would 1) have to pay $4-5 million more than market value and 2) they wouldn't get any picks (because no team would match or top that arbitration number in this market)...

Right?

[jemagee]

The assumptions of what the market is are baffling to me - no ones signed yet - no one has a fracking CLUE what the market is - everyone is ASSUMING the economy will make a difference but there's no evidence yet.

Manny Ramirez
CC Sabathia
Mark Teixiera (how ever the hell you spell his name)

Until these 3 guys sign - no one has a god damn clue WHAT the market is and what the market will bear - they're still throwing out 140 million dollar numbers for sabathia who is a very fat pitcher - how well do long term contracts for fat pitchers in their late 20s do in history?  and for Tex...

You keep 'creating' these scenarios to prove your case - like you have some sort of visionary psychic ability - there is no market yet - the market isn't set - but every year people talk about 'rationale' contracts, and almost every year it doesn't happen cause GMS has a mandate to win and it only takes two teams to throw a contract out of control...

By offering arbitration the phillies made it much more likely Burrell was coming back - they had leverage - and now they have none.

Period

Moyer I can understand he's 46 freaking years old - he should be retired - and the phils have some solid back end pitching the minors

BUT THEY HAVE CRAPOLA in terms of out field prospcts ready any time soon and they NEED a strong right handed bat in their lefty heavy line up

There are people who just WANT this to be a good move for the phillies so they are coming up with predictive scenarios that MAKE it a good move in hindsight

[Derek Bodner]

Here's a counter to the "the economy is crap, FA's won't get paid":

Both NY clubs lost last season.  Both NY clubs are typically the highest salaries in baseball.  One of the NY clubs is shedding $50 million in payroll.  Both NY clubs are getting HUGE influxes in revenue due to new ballparks.  Both NY clubs will overspend for the top free agents, setting the bar for the lower level FA's.

Counting on the economy to downplay spending is a huge risk.  A risk which you've lost both the ability to get 2 picks if he signs elsewhere, and any leverage you previously had with Burrell.

[bebopdeluxe]

tk:

Given this market, I believe that there is ZERO chance that Burrell turns down arbitration (see: Millwood, Kevin).

It is my opinion (as well as the opinion of guys like Olney and Gammons) that a LOT of guys are going to take short deals in the hope that the economics improve over the next year.  If the number that Burrell would have gotten in arbitration is, say, $16 million, I feel reasonably comfortable saying that Burrell signs a 1-year deal elsewhere, it will be $4-5 million below that...and he doesn't get to stay in Philly, either.  And for the multi-year deal he wants?  If he wants a guaranteed 3-year deal, I would be floored if he got more than, say, $12 mil a year...again, well below what he would see next year from us in arbitration...with the opportunity to test the waters again next year when the economic environment may very well be better.

Olney said that teams like the Blue Jays - who he thought going into the offseason were going to be pretty material players in FA - have materially changed their outlook on their payroll in light of what is going on in the markets and the economy.  I'm sure that oter teams have adjusted their thinking as well.  The stock market is down close to 40% this year...over half-a-million people lost their jobs last month, and we will probably be looking at close to 8% unemployment by the time the 2009 season starts.

So, how are those ticket price increases and corporate suite/season ticket reorders looking, guys?

(the teams know...and I bet it ain't pretty)

It's not "collusion", jem...it's the economy.  And even if it is collusion, the teams have the "mother of all excuses" available to get away with it...

[bebopdeluxe]

dabods:

You and I both know that the NY teams are a special situation...between cable contracts and new ballparks they will continue to spend the $$$...although it was interesting to Buster Olney that the Yankees declined to offer Abreu arbitration - a month ago, he thought that it was a lock that they would offer Abreu arbitration.

You say that the market for these less-than-top-tier FA's will be set by the NY teams...I think the market will be set by the teams in the middle...not the NY/BOS/CHI teams...not the PIT/KC/MIA teams...but the teams in the middle...which makes Olney's comments about the Jays (and how he sees a material change in their outlook towards FA spending in light of the weakening economy) so interesting.

[jemagee]

Bostons a special situation, the angels are a special situation, the dodgers are a big market team with lousy ownership and a stupid GM...there are teams out there that will spend money year in and year out.

Pat Burrell can play left field
He can also play first base
he can also DH

People are just assuming pat's back in Philadelphia at a bargain - but he's a type A free agent for a reason, his numbers against lefties are pretty much the second best of the outfielder in the free agent market and still pretty damn good for a first baseman or a DH

Again, people are making excuses for the phillies ownership...operating like mid market ownership in a large market city - taking all that extra 'world series' good will money and putting it in their pockets - though i'm not surprised they screwed this up - they screwed up the new GM and by doing so also screwed up the best guy the scouting department has seen in a long time and dallas green still has influence

It's going to be another 25 years isn't it?

[jemagee]

"Clayton Kershaw is kind of like the Dodgers Joba"

Read that somewhere, maybe one of you can tell me how that makes sense?

[bebopdeluxe]

jem:

Still jazzed about the game tonight, but...

1) For the record, what is your prediction (years and dollars) of what Burrell will get from one of these "dumb money" teams?

2) Forget the "hometown discount"...if the Phils get taken to arbitration, they will likely be paying Burrell $4-5 million over what his current market value is, IMO (based on what I am hearing and reading).  So...we rip Billy King for bidding against himself for Willie Green, but we want the Phils to do something that a lot of teams (including the Yankees) are not doing - offer arbitration to a "corner-power" guy?

3) If the Phils had offered arbitration to Burrell, most teams would have know that he would probably get in the range of, say, $16 million...so, a team who wanted to sign him away from his "hometown" team were going to have to do better than that, for longer years...and right now I doubt that any team is going to give him 2/$35 or 3/$45 (making the loss of draft picks from not offering him arbitration a moot point, IMO)...in case you haven't heard, over half a million people lost their jobs last month...and probably 2-3 million more people will lose their jobs between now and Opening Day 2009 - something that is not lost on the "dumb money" teams who don't have a cable channel named YES or SNY refilling the trough.  If you are not named CC, Tex or AJ, you are waiting, and they will get to you when they are ready...

4) For a team that most observers say will have a 2009 payroll north of $120 million (top 10?), how can you say the Phillies are cheap?  This isn't 2001 anymore.

(that is not an apology...that is simply the numbers)

Whether it is teams' being legitimatly concerned about ticket sales or corporate suite renewals...or (as you suggest) collusion...the Phillies are not alone in passing on arbitration...letting the market set the price, not an arbitrator who will do "2008 salary + did you have a decent year?" to determine what my guy's salary will be.

Their decision makes perfect sense to me...but I do reserve the right to rip them if the market is what I think it is, and we enter the 2009 season with a payroll of less than $120 million and holes in LF and the back of the rotation.

I'm done.

[jemagee]

Their decision makes perfect sense to me...but I do reserve the right to rip them if the market is what I think it is, and we enter the 2009 season with a payroll of less than $120 million and holes in LF and the back of the rotation.

I'm sure you do (and no just because you asked again i'm not going to pointlessly pick a contract number) and I reserve the right to point out to you that one year of pat burrell at 16/17 miliion would be better than the holes that will exist in LF

[bebopdeluxe]

But, jem...read what ANYBODY is saying right at ESPN, CNNSI, Fox Sports...if Abreu or Dunn is looking at $8-10 million a year, why in God's name should the Phils give Burrell $17 million?

Does that make sense?

[jemagee]

But, jem...read what ANYBODY is saying right at ESPN, CNNSI, Fox Sports...if Abreu or Dunn is looking at $8-10 million a year, why in God's name should the Phils give Burrell $17 million?

How often are those folks wrong about what markets will bear?  I'm telling you - if Pat Burrell isn't in left field next year for the phillies - the phillies will not be as good as he was - whatever the frack he makes.

[bebopdeluxe]

I think that the Phillies will have a chance to give Burrell a 2 year/$20 million contract...if they choose to pass on that (without doing something like, say, signing Lowe), then I am with you.

[jemagee]

Baseball Prospectus

Phillies: New GM Ruben Amaro Jr. wants to continue to bolster the pitching staff. After becoming impatient in their attempts to re-sign left-hander Jamie Moyer, they have made Lowe their primary focus. Regardless of public statements to the contrary, they have no desire to re-sign Burrell. While they have interest in signing Ibanez as a possible replacement in left field, they are more likely to add someone to platoon with a holdover such as Greg Dobbs, Geoff Jenkins, or Matt Stairs.