Grace period for the Phillies is over

[bebopdeluxe]

jem:

Like I said, if we have a payroll of less than $120 million next season, and try to band-aid our holes in LF and the back of our rotation, I will take back every thing I have said that suggests that I support what the Phillies are doing this off-season...

[jemagee]

Like I said, if we have a payroll of less than $120 million next season, and try to band-aid our holes in LF and the back of our rotation, I will take back every thing I have said that suggests that I support what the Phillies are doing this off-season...

'band aid the holes' in LF?

Quick - which free agents are better right handed bats than Pat Burrell?

[bebopdeluxe]

Ummm....Manny Ramirez?

The point that I am making is it is begining to sound like it doesn't matter if Burrell is willing to come back on short money (i.e. something like 2 years guaranteed with a 3rd year option based on easily reached numbers for, say, $25-30 million)...it sounds like the Phils want to fill that spot on the cheap (get some RH bat to platoon with the LH garbage we have on the bench).

If they do that without either 1) signing Lowe or 2) spending some SERIOUS cheese on extending some of our core guys, then I am with you.

[jemagee]

Ummm....Manny Ramirez?

Well if they ain't paying Pat they ain't paying Manny

(get some RH bat to platoon with the LH garbage we have on the bench).

Raul Ibanez ain't a RH bat and Baldelli won't stay healthy

And of course there's no one worth starting in right field either.

[bebopdeluxe]

There was a bit of sarcasm there about Manny...

I'm OK with Werth in RF...he does have a boneheaded play now and then, but on balance, he had a decent year.  I would agree that we need a legit RH bopper though, and if it is not Burrell, it is a problem.

[jemagee]

I'm OK with Werth in RF...he does have a boneheaded play now and then, but on balance, he had a decent year.  I would agree that we need a legit RH bopper though, and if it is not Burrell, it is a problem.

He has a history of injury issues - that's why the dodgers let him go - last year I believe was the first year he stayed mostly healthy - depending on werth to stay healthy is a iffy proposition at best

[Derek Bodner]

Ken Rosenthal reporting the phillies willing to offer moyer 1 year, 10 million.  He wants 2 years, 20 million.  If we're willing to offer him 1  year/10, and the sticking point for him is the second year, why again didn't we offer arbitration?

There's a reason that the Phillies are struggling to re-sign left-hander Jamie Moyer, who went 16-7 with a 3.71 ERA and pitched 196 1/3 innings last season. Moyer, 46, wants a two-year deal for more than $20 million, according to a major-league source. The Phillies probably would be willing to pay him $10 million for one year, but don't want to guarantee two. Moyer earned a total of $7 million last season, including performance bonuses . . .

http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/8911104/Sources:-Cardinals-serious-about-Burnett

[bebopdeluxe]

My guess would be that, as part of that deal, the Phillies wanted to get a 2nd year team option...and they couldn't get that through arbitration.  I think there is NO SHOT he gets 2/20 guaranteed from another team.

It looks like Burrell will be lucky to get half of what he would have gotten had we offered (and he accepted) arbitration.

[Derek Bodner]

There is no shot he gets a second guaranteed year.  But arbitration in this case was a win-win slam dunk.  The value of a team option for a 48 year old is minimal over a straight 1 year deal, and not nearly worth enough to lose the leverage of arbitration.

We'll see what Burrell gets (and where) when this is all said and done.  Way to early to come to a conclusion. 

[bebopdeluxe]

dabods:

If you believe that there is no chance of Moyer getting a second, guaranteed year in a deal, then if the Phillies had offered Moyer arbitration (with the expectation that he would get in the range of $10 million from an arbitrator), do you think that another team would pay him MORE than that for one year?

I don't.

You keep coming back to the losses of these draft picks by not offering arbitration to Moyer and Burrell, and I just don't see the Phillies ever getting those picks if we offered arbitration, because - given the current market environment - no team would offer $$$ over those expected arbitration numbers to trigger us getting the picks.

Does that make sense?

In my mind, the probablility of realizing this positive aspect of offering arbitration (getting draft picks) is very low, relative to the downside of offering arbitration...in Burrell's case, being locked into paying a significant premium over current market value (looking more like $5-7 million)...and in Moyer's case, not having the flexibility to potentially take advantage of other values in the market.  I don't know, for example, if Randy Wolf would FINALLY decide to consider playing for us (after jerking us around for the past couple of seasons), but if I had to choose which pitcher to give a 2-year guaranteed deal to - Randy Wolf or Jamie Moyer - I would choose Wolf (and I bet a few GM's would agree with me)...and he might not cost $20 million, either.

[Derek Bodner]

Does that make sense?

No.

I think you're drastically overrating the effect of "the current market conditions".  Despite the economy, you have a team about to file for bankruptcy chasing a pitcher owed over $60 million.

When the domino's fall, Burrell's the second best right handed bat on the market.  He will sign someone for multiple years.  Someone in the AL will offer him more years than they should because of the DH. 

In my mind, heading into FA the best two options with Burrell were:
- Getting him to sign a 1 year deal
- Getting 2 draft picks in compensation for him.

Now, you've lost all leverage of getting him to sign that one year deal, and you've lost your ability to get picks when he does leave.

You're losing Burrell for nothing.  And that is far worse (and now infinitely more probable) than Burrell signing a 1 year deal that may be a couple million over market value.

Randy Wolf or Jamie Moyer - I would choose Wolf (and I bet a few GM's would agree with me)...and he might not cost $20 million, either.

Jamie wouldn't have cost $20 million either.  You could have had him for $7-10 and completely removed his leverage in free agency because nobody was going to give him a multi-year deal AND give up 2 first round picks for a 46 year old.  Now you very well may have ticked him off enough where he'll take a 1 year deal somewhere else. 

At this point continuing the argument is probably pointless.  We'll just have to wait and see.  Now that we have very little leverage on either case, and have very little chance of getting either one of them back, and have very little chance of getting comparable talent, and have no chance of getting compensation picks. 

Instead of getting Burrell back for a 1 year deal, we'll overpay for Ibanez, who not only will be a worse player, but will also be a worse fit (left handed bat with lower OBP), who will be older, who will cost a longer deal, and who will cost us two compensatory draft picks.

yay.

[jemagee]

Of course you don't - anything that indicates the phillies made a bad decision regarding arbitration isn't convincing to you because you don't want it to be a bad decision.

If you believe that there is no chance of Moyer getting a second, guaranteed year in a deal, then if the Phillies had offered Moyer arbitration (with the expectation that he would get in the range of $10 million from an arbitrator), do you think that another team would pay him MORE than that for one year?

I don't

Then please - tell us where the DOWNSIDE of offering him arbitration is...seriously -

[bebopdeluxe]

jem:

The downside of offering Moyer arbitration is that we may be able to upgrade the position for the same money.  I would rather have Wolf....and I doubt that we would try to get him if we already know that we will be giving Moyer $10 million in February.

dabods:

You can talk all you want about wanting Burrell in arbitration - I don't want to pay him $16-17 million for 2009 if the "market value" is $5-7 million below that.  You want to overpay him?  Fine.  Knock yourself out.  I remember everybody who was bellyaching about us not keeping Rowand last fall...I was fine with it then...and I am even more fine with that decision now.  As to whether or not an American League team is going to give him the kind of long-term deal that would convince Burrell to walk away from our 1-year, $17 mil arbitration award (and thereby netting us those draft picks), we'll just have to wait and see how the market is going to shake out....but based on what virtually every observer is saying about the current market conditions, it is hard to envision Burrell getting the kind of multi-year deal that would look better than 1 year/$17 million.

If somebody pays Burrell 2/32 or 3/45 guaranteed, then our decision to not offer arbitration looks bad.

[jemagee]

The downside of offering Moyer arbitration is that we may be able to upgrade the position for the same money.  I would rather have Wolf....and I doubt that we would try to get him if we already know that we will be giving Moyer $10 million in February.

Why would you rather have wolf than moyer?  It's not like wolf has been good the past couple years, and moyer has.

[bebopdeluxe]

Bill (Philly): Some people around here are questioning why the Phils did not offer Burrell arbitration...my take is - based on his salary of $14 mil in '08 - he would be looking at an arbitration award of $16-17 mil for '09...which is WAY out of line with the current market value for "corner/power" guys...right? Why would the Phiiles do that - particularly if they will never see the draft picks anyway (because no other team would come up with the $$$ to convince Burrell walk away from the $17 mil to stay with the Phils)...am I missing something?

 Rob Neyer: (12:16 PM ET ) No, I think you've got it, and without even mentioning Burrell's lousy defense. Faced with the possibility of spending $16 million on a $10 million (at best) player, the Phillies blinked. Maybe they misread the market, but offering him arbitration would have been a real risk.

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OK...so now you guys know my name is Bill....