Grace period for the Phillies is over

[Derek Bodner]

Can't compare him to Rowand, because of the YEARS Rowand got in his contract, and because of him coming off a career year.  Pat's consistently produced (he may slump in season, but at the end of the year, he's remarkably consistent).  Rowand wasn't overpaid by $4 million.  He was overpaid by $20 million.

You keep floating that $5-7 million as if it's fact.  As if you know what he would have gotten in arb, and you know what other outfielders will get.  You don't.

And our decision doesn't look bad if Burrell gets a big money deal elsewhere.  Our decision will also look bad if he leaves and we don't replace him with anything comparable (which, in reality with this FA class, is only Manny).

[bebopdeluxe]

dabods:

I refer you to the post that I just put up...I would think that Rob Neyer knows more about the current economics than I do.  Burrell made $14 million last year, and he had a good year.  When have arbitrators EVER taken into account the current environment for FA in their arbitration awards?  (EDIT: Neyer also said at the end of the chat that 1) arbitrators don't take into account the "current market" in their awards and 2) they almost never take into account defense...which is two big points when the Phillies look at what Burrell would get in arbitration this year)

I think this is all a moot point...personally, I would love to see them resign Burrell for, say, 2 years (with a 3rd year option that is reasonable) at the current market value (say, $20ish million)...but it sounds like the Phillies aren't even going to do that...which makes even the thought of them extending arbitration to the guy a difficult sell from the jump.

[Derek Bodner]

Right.  Because ESPN guys are never wrong.

(and I disagree with him about Burrell's "lousy" defense).

(And about him benig a "$10 million player at best").

[bebopdeluxe]

dabods:

It's not just "ESPN guys"...virtually every sports media outlet has devoted substancial copy to the situation that Burrell (and a host of other guys) are currently facing.  One of the media outlets is actually trying to confirm whether the Dodgers have left their 2/45 offer on the table for Manny...you know, the offer that was portrayed as a joke and being done solely for the Dodgers to save face with their fans.

I would also love to know what percentage of starts Burrell was pulled for defensive purposes and how compares to the league average.

jem would not answer my question of what his prediction would be in terms of the contract that Burrell would eventually sign...will you?  I said one year/$11 million or 2 years/$22 million guaranteed (excluding options).  You seem to be reasonably sure that Burrell will sign the kind of long-term deal that would have gotten us draft picks had we offered him arbitration...I'm just curious about what kind of number you think that will be...

[bebopdeluxe]

As in rightfield, there doesn't seem to be a huge correlation between doing well in left and winning. The Royals displayed the best defense at the position, while the Phillies came out at the bottom of the pack.

The list of individuals in left shows that very few teams employ a regular at the position:

Individual Leftfielder PMR, 2008, Visit Smooth Distance Model, 2008 data only (1000 balls in play) Player In Play Actual Outs Predicted Outs DER  Predicted DER Ratio
Skip Schumaker 1085 85 73.79 0.078 0.068 115.20
David DeJesus 1522 136 121.91 0.089 0.080 111.56
Brandon Boggs 1818 131 118.10 0.072 0.065 110.92
Matt Joyce 1249 94 84.77 0.075 0.068 110.89
Ben Francisco 2021 150 138.34 0.074 0.068 108.43
Juan Pierre 1816 125 116.83 0.069 0.064 107.00
Willie Harris 1685 145 135.55 0.086 0.080 106.97
Carl Crawford 2715 231 217.97 0.085 0.080 105.98
Conor Jackson 1944 146 139.06 0.075 0.072 104.99
Gregor Blanco 1547 86 82.08 0.056 0.053 104.78
Jay Payton 1293 132 126.31 0.102 0.098 104.51
Luke Scott 2668 200 196.08 0.075 0.073 102.00
Johnny Damon 1998 155 152.00 0.078 0.076 101.97
Ryan Braun 3919 275 270.93 0.070 0.069 101.50
Wily Mo Pena 1260 99 97.68 0.079 0.078 101.35
Carlos Lee 2840 187 185.42 0.066 0.065 100.85
David Dellucci 1164 75 74.64 0.064 0.064 100.48
Adam Dunn 2942 210 209.06 0.071 0.071 100.45
Alfonso Soriano 2653 186 185.23 0.070 0.070 100.42
Fred Lewis 2622 178 177.57 0.068 0.068 100.24
Carlos Quentin 3465 228 228.42 0.066 0.066 99.81
Jack Cust 1753 129 129.74 0.074 0.074 99.43
Emil Brown 1229 89 89.70 0.072 0.073 99.21
Chase Headley 2159 156 157.62 0.072 0.073 98.97
Matt Holliday 3850 240 243.20 0.062 0.063 98.68
Manny Ramirez 2894 190 193.40 0.066 0.067 98.24
Adam Lind 1712 113 115.52 0.066 0.067 97.81
Xavier Nady 1212 87 89.04 0.072 0.073 97.71
Chris Duncan 1012 73 74.80 0.072 0.074 97.59
Raul Ibanez 4203 303 312.07 0.072 0.074 97.09
Garret Anderson 2113 144 148.53 0.068 0.070 96.95
Jose Guillen 1098 83 85.62 0.076 0.078 96.94
Luis Gonzalez 1547 105 109.32 0.068 0.071 96.05
David Murphy 1317 86 89.62 0.065 0.068 95.96
Josh Willingham 2551 166 173.80 0.065 0.068 95.51
Eric Byrnes 1209 76 80.12 0.063 0.066 94.86
Jason Bay 4215 254 268.19 0.060 0.064 94.71
Marcus Thames 1537 120 127.42 0.078 0.083 94.18
Delmon Young 4209 282 301.19 0.067 0.072 93.63
Pat Burrell 3646 202 223.39 0.055 0.061 90.42

Ryan Braun is the first player on the list on the field in left for over 3000 balls in play. Some of this was caused by injuries (Soriano, Matsui), but for the most part, managers mix and match at the position. The move to left was clearly the right one for Braun.

The other rankings of note belong to Manny Ramirez and Jason Bay. Manny actually did better than Jason in 2008. I'm going to need to break down the two by team to see how much the parks might have made a difference. Bay certainly looked better than Manny watching him play for the Red Sox.

All those late inning substitutions Charlie Manuel made for Pat Burrell looked proper, also. Pat ranks as the worst leftfielder in baseball in 2008, so it's no wonder Charlie wanted a better glove in left when the Phillies had the lead late.


(www.baseballmusings.com)

____________________________________________________________________________

I'm not a big stat guy, but my gut tells me that defense isn't Pat Burrell's strong-suit.

[Derek Bodner]

I would also love to know what percentage of starts Burrell was pulled for defensive purposes and how compares to the league average.

Which, of course, doesn't prove anyones defensive ability, only Charlie's managerial style.  There are much better (and more advanced) metrics used to measure defensive performance.

jem would not answer my question of what his prediction would be in terms of the contract that Burrell would eventually sign...will you?  I said one year/$11 million or 2 years/$22 million guaranteed (excluding options).  You seem to be reasonably sure that Burrell will sign the kind of long-term deal that would have gotten us draft picks had we offered him arbitration...I'm just curious about what kind of number you think that will be...

Reading through the mlbpa's cba, I don't believe there's such a thing as "a long term deal that would have gotten us draft picks".  If he signs elsewhere, we get draft picks.  Period.

I also don't think it's a slam dunk that he wins $17-20 million in arbitration.  10 year vets in arb don't generally have their salaries skyrocket.  I think $15 million is a reasonable goal.

I think he would accept a 2 year/$24 million deal, and he'll get somewhere in that range.  Possibly with an option/partial guarantee for a 3rd.

Personally?  For us, I think a 1 year, 15 million deal is better than a 2/24.

And, finally, I'm tired of debating the same points, so this really is my last post on the subject.  I'm sorry I brought it back up.

[bebopdeluxe]

dabods:

Thanks for ending this...I was about to pull the stats from Bill James' on line site where he posts the Fielding Bible's 3-year stats that lists Burrell as having the worst +/- of any LF in baseball.

 

Just so we are clear - I would sign Burrell for 2/24 in a heartbeat, if that is the market value.  I simply think that the Phillies did not want to take a chance that they might actually have to pay Burrell $15-17 million for next year (a realistic possibility had they offered him arbitration).  It was more important to them to not have to pay that number then take the chance that another team might sign him and they get draft picks...and they are not alone in MLB in this line of thinking.

[bebopdeluxe]

If the Phillies sign Derek Lowe, I will...I will....I will....

 

[jemagee]

Two interesting points of news this morning

Check out Sabathias Contract - 7 years 160 million dollars

Red Sox and Yankees both want Derrick Lowe - no way he signs with the phillies - he knows boston and both teams will offer better contracts - thank god they fracked up with Moyer huh?

[jemagee]

http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/news;_ylt=Ah6NGKCruiU4Lin8KaeTLf0RvLYF?slug=ti-parkphillies121008&prov=yhoo&type=lgns

Give up yet bebop?

[bebopdeluxe]

I don't see any way that Park is a starter...and certainly not a replacement for Moyer.

My guess is this deal - and the Paulino deal - are precursers to sending Happ and Coste outta here for DeRosa.  Park can fill the same role that Durbin did last fall - a cheap arm who can either be a 6th-7th inning guy or an end-of-the-rotation.

If they try to sell Park as Moyer's replacement, I take back everything supportive that I said about the Phillies in ths thread.

[Derek Bodner]

He better not be a friggin starter.  He's the epitome of Jem's favorite word, fungible.  His peripherals are worse than his ERA.  If he goes out and gives up a .264 OBA, he's going to give up a lot more than 3.4 earned per 9.

What's the deals of the contract?  I've heard reports of a one year, $3 million range.

I'd have rather taken that $3 million and given it to Burrell in arbitration than waste it on a junky middle reliever.  But what do I know.

Don't necessarily like the Paulino deal.  He's young enough that I guess you bank on him returning to his rookie year, but his last two years have been sorely below average, even for a catcher.  He has historically hit LH pitching well (but not last year), but he'd be platooning with Ruiz (RH bat) and Marson (RH bat), so I'm not sure how they're going to handle that.  Not that I'm upset over losing Jaramilo, but I'd like to see Marson get a shot.  There's little shot of them carrying 3 catchers, so I'm worried Paulino will block Marson.

And I'm worried about trading Happ.  I like DeRosa, but if we trade Happ, we're putting all our eggs in one basket with Carrasco.  We don't really have another pitcher in the minors that's a season or less away from the bigs.  I like Bastardo, but he's got some time before he's ready.  I'd really prefer to keep Happ.  I think he's going to be a solid #3-4 type pitcher relatively soon.

Our pitching staff is really shaping up to be Cole Hamels and a bunch of unknowns.

[jemagee]

Trading Happ for DeRosa is just another bad sign, I don't trust it at all.  I'd rather keep Coste than Paulino as well...if you believe in chemistry AT ALL you gotta think the 35 year old rookie adds to that chemistry in a way not measurable.

And it's nice to see why the phils are tinkering and putzing around the mets are at least making some moves to improve their biggest weakness last year...

[jemagee]

"Hot in pursuit" of Ibanez - who is left handed - a worse defender and four years older than pat burrell - and not as good a bat

Considering  Atkins - before you get too excited, check his splits

edit - misleading headline - finally read the article - rockies want carrasco for atkins - phillies won't give him up - i think atkins value is down pretty much

[bebopdeluxe]

Actually - the Mets are the ones who are "Putz"-ing around.