Grace period for the Phillies is over

[Derek Bodner]

They drive me flippin nuts.

It's amazing to have so much love for the players and so much hate for the front office.

[bebopdeluxe]

I am assuming that you have a problem with them not offering arbitration to Moyer?

[Derek Bodner]

And Burrell

And Seanez.

[bebopdeluxe]

Seanez?  Meh.

Burrell?  I guess they were concerned that he might go all Millwood on them and accept arbitration...not that I would necessarily object to them signing him to a 1 year/$16m deal, but it seems like that number is just too big for them.  They must think that there is a good chance that - after the top-shelf guys - this market will turn like it did on Kyle Lohse last year...and rather than have themselves tied into Moyer and Burrell for close to $25 million for next season, that they can get more bang-for-their-buck to wait.  Given the economy and the very real potential that ticket sales fall off next season (not necessarily for the Phils, but for the industry in general), the Phillies might think that after the CC/Manny/Lowe-types sign, there is going to be a lot of value out there...and better ways to spend that money than to give close to $25 mil to Moyer and Burrell for one year.

We'll see if they are right.

[DuckyNinja]

While I don't necessarily agree with it, I at least see the logic in it.  They have 10 guys going to arbitration.  Adding Moyer and Burrell to that list, especially if they accepted (and they both definitely could), would almost definitely bump the payroll past 120 mil.  The Phillies won the World Series, not the lottery.

[jemagee]

Burrell is a type A guy - that's two picks folks.

ONE YEAR of Pat Burrell isn't going to break the bank, and now if you want him back it costs a lot more - so say good bye to pat.

My grace period for the phillies was over when they did appoint the moron to GM and let Arbuckle leave - two birds killed with one stone, and not in a good way.

This is just an asinine move - the phils have a lot more problems now - i guess they feel since arbuckle is gone they don't need extra draft picks any more?

This is an embarassment and if an indicator of how amaro is going to run things, enjoy last year, cause they'll never get close again.

[Derek Bodner]

Seanez?  Meh.

Two words:
Draft pick.

Seanez was a type B arbitration eligible free agent.  He made $400k last year.  The "worst case" scenario is he accepts arbitration and we pay him $500k for his services next year and he's an end of the rotation guy.  The best case is he signs somewhere else and we get the compensatory draft pick.

There's absolutely no downside to offering Seanez arbitration.

Likewise, for Moyer, getting him to agree to a 1 year deal is exactly what we want.  The sticking point has been that second year.  So with Moyer it's a win-win.  Either we get him for a year, or we get 2 draft picks between the 1st and 2nd round for him.  Either way, it's a GREAT move.

And Burrell?  This just shows how drastically undervalued he is by the phillies.  Sure, a 4 year deal for Burrell would be bad.  A 1 year deal would have been great.  Burrell's OPS+ the last 4 years: 128, 122, 127, 125.  That's not going to be easy to replace, and certainly not going to come cheaper than the 1 year, 15 million deal Burrell would have gotten in arbitration.  And if Burrell would have signed elsewhere?  Again, 2 more draft picks.

Do you know how the Yankees got Jaba Chamberlain?  You won't like this.  Compensatory pick FROM THE PHILLIES for signing Tom Gordon.  The Yankees gambled that Gordon wouldn't accept arbitration, and it paid off with a potential future ace for nothing.  They also got Ian Kennedy out of the signing.  They got Phil Hughes because they offered Andy Pettitte Arbitration.

Do you know how the Mets got David Wright?  Yup.  Compensation for the Rockies signing Mike Hampton.

What, again, was the downside to offering Rudy Seanez arbitration?

[jemagee]

And Burrell?  This just shows how drastically undervalued he is by the phillies.

According to a poster on another blog i don't think i'll be reading any more - burrell was 'stealing' money and only wanted back if he was making 7-9 million dollars a year

[bebopdeluxe]

The downside to offering Seanez arbitration is that he might accept it.

I don't have a problem with the Phillies thinking that they can do better than Seanez...perhaps they think that Koplove is good enough to be a candidate for that 11th spot on the pitching staff...and they don't have to guarantee the guy $500K.  Loose change, you say?  Perhaps...I just don't have the wood for Seanez that you might...he is an ABSOLUTE end-of-the-bullpen guy, IMO...and I don't think it's worth it to guarantee his contract just to pick up a draft pick.  If you disagree with that, that's OK with me.

I would not have had a problem with offering either Moyer or Burrell arbitration, but again, there is the very real possibility that they would both accept it - which would have locked in close to $25 million in payroll for those two guys next season.  Given the Phillies' existing contracts, and the other guys who at the very least are going to see meaningful salary increases through arbitration, they did not want to add another $24-25 million for Moyer and Burrell right now...it must be their belief that - once you get below the top FA's - the market for the less-than-premier FA's may turn out to be weaker than they expect...which will allow them to either 1) sign guys who can give them reasonable production at these positions for less then they would have to give Moyer and Burrell in arbitration (for example, will Rocco Baldelli cost $16 million?) or 2) resign those guys for a more cost-effective nut once the market shakes out...

I cetainly acknowledge that by not offering those guys arbitration, they lost the opportunity to get those compensatory draft picks, but given that the Phillies are already looking at a $120 million payroll next season already, they are looking to control costs where they can...and it's a lot easier to sell that to your fan base when you just had a parade.

If the market for the less-than-top-tier FA's turns out to be as bad as I think it might, I think that either we sign one or both of those guys (and the draft picks are a moot point), or they fill those holes for less than $25 million for next season.

And here's one just for you, jem...let's say that they sign Baldelli for $8 million next season, and take half of what they save over the arbitration nut for Burrell (lets say $4 million) and put it into the bonus pool for our Latin scouts to use to find more Carrascos...how about that?

(yeah...I'm not holding my breath on that one, either)

[jemagee]

The downside to offering Seanez arbitration is that he might accept it.

Except he makes little to no money and could easily be sent away - while still maintaining the type B compensation if someone else signs him...there's no down side, as derek said.

When Dobbs and Jenkins and Werth make up some kind of asinine LF/RF platoon next year - I hope all you 'burrell makes too much money' folks are happy - cause it's real tiresome.

And here's one just for you, jem...let's say that they sign Baldelli for $8 million next season, and take half of what they save over the arbitration nut for Burrell (lets say $4 million) and put it into the bonus pool for our Latin scouts to use to find more Carrascos...how about that?

And what if lucy liu showed up naked at my office and offered herself to me...this is the kind of 'what if' constructed by people who want this NOT to be asinine and who forget that mike arbuckle is gone....

People on BSG are trying to rationalize this by saying it frees up money for burnett and manny - yeah right

Spin it all you want - this is a kick in the balls to fans who supported this team - but since the phils seemm more 'fan driven' then others, this is the fans who never appreciated pat (the majority of them) reaping what they sow...oh boy now we got an outfield that sucks.   And Raul Ibanez is left handed AND NOT AN UPGRADE

[Derek Bodner]

The downside to offering Seanez arbitration is that he might accept it.

I don't have a problem with the Phillies thinking that they can do better than Seanez...perhaps they think that Koplove is good enough to be a candidate for that 11th spot on the pitching staff...and they don't have to guarantee the guy $500K.  Loose change, you say?  Perhaps...I just don't have the wood for Seanez that you might...

I don't have any "wood" for Seanez.  If he accepts, I'd very likely cut him.  $500k is worth the risk of getting the potential compensatory draft pick.

There is no downside.  When we're talking about a 100+ million payroll, $500k for a 1st round draft pick?

Pocket change.

[bebopdeluxe]

dabods:

That assumes that somebody signs Seanez...and what makes you think that somebody will?  The Phils picked him up for nothing during the season for a reason...right?  If you are ready to cut him (and eat the $500K) if he accepts arbitration, then what does that say about the likelihood that somebody signes him in FA and us getting a compensatory pick - huh?

jem:

I like how you left off the end of my post...it was clear that I was being sarcastic about the Phils plowing money saved from not offering Burrell arbitration to increasing our Latin spend...yes?

I think that the Phils are betting that - once the top-tier FA's are gone - this will be a buyers market for the overwhelming majority of FA's this offseason (kind of a Kyle-Lohse-last-year gone wild)...and I don't think that is an unrealistic assumption.  If that is the case, they will either 1) sign one or both of those guys at more favorable $$$ (making the lost draft picks a moot point) or 2) sign replacement guys at a material discount to the $25ish million that they would pay Moyer and Burrell in arbitration (enough to offset the lost draft picks).

You obviously do not agree with that position, but - even with this team's history of trying to do some things on the cheap - I think that there is some logic to their thinking here.  Unfortunately - $120+ million payroll in 2009 aside - there is enough history of this franchise being cheap to give people the ability to slam them for their decisions here.  We'll just have to see where things shake out by Spring Trainingto see who was right - the Phillies or you guys.

[jemagee]

That assumes that somebody signs Seanez...and what makes you think that somebody will?  The Phils picked him up for nothing during the season for a reason...right?  If you are ready to cut him (and eat the $500K) if he accepts arbitration, then what does that say about the likelihood that somebody signes him in FA and us getting a compensatory pick - huh?

Sometimes GMs do stupid stuff (see Aaron Rowands contract for a very recent example) and if someone gets desperate for an arm and sign seanez the phils get another pick - and if not and they have to 'swallow' 500K - BFD...it's less than one half of one percent of the '120 million' dollar magic number people throw out - it's the concept of risk vs reward that seems lost on the philliess

[bebopdeluxe]

But, jem...there has to be some kind of probability analysis here...

(I can't believe that I am actually defending the Phils' salary/budget decision-making process)

If you have, say, a 60% chance that $500K gets youo a sandwich 1st round pick, that sounds like GREAT risk/reward...but I view the likelihood of Seanez being signed in FA as no more than 5-10%.

Also - if we offer arbitration to a guy like Seanez, does he immediately count against our 40-man roster?

[jemagee]

If you have, say, a 60% chance that $500K gets youo a sandwich 1st round pick, that sounds like GREAT risk/reward...but I view the likelihood of Seanez being signed in FA as no more than 5-10%.

Also - if we offer arbitration to a guy like Seanez, does he immediately count against our 40-man roster?

Again, less than 1/2 of 1% of the projected salary - hard to comprehend I know but it's 'pocket change' to a baseball team

As for the 40 man roster, who cares?  It's not like the phils system is littered with prospects they need to project in Rule V - and with moves like screwing over arbuckle and these idiot arbitration moves - it never will  be