I don't think anyone believes that Detroit is the more talented team. To me, that means that it's obvious to anyone with half a brain that if Detroit tries to beat LA on talent, that they're going to lose, and to me, that means you don't play the series to win on talent if you're Detroit.
Detroit *CAN* beat LA, but the margin for error is infinitesimal. And the key to beating LA is beating Shaq. As Shaq goes, so go the Lakers, because they have to drag Shaq's ego along with them as they travel. A Shaq that's unhappy at his teammates is the thing Detroit most wants to see.
And the best way to make Shaq unhappy with his teammates is to make Shaq's teammates unhappy with Shaq's effort. That means you work O'Neal until he's too tired to be of any use. Detroit has the big guys to do this. They can use combinations of Ben Wallace, Rasheed Wallace, Mehment Okur, Elden Campbell, Corliss Williamson, and Darko Milicic across the front line. Malone only gets to cover one of those guys. The key is to use the OTHER against Shaq, and attack Shaq directly with the weapons the guys bring to the table. For Ben Wallace, that's mobility, defense, and energy - you run pick-and-roll with Hamilton and Wallace. (Hamilton - not Billups. After all - if you want Kobe upset with Shaq, you rub Kobe's face in Shaq's mistakes.)
With Mehmet Okur, the trick is to make O'Neal run to cover the outside shot. Okur needs to be patient, but aggressive. Okur will end up taking a beating for this, but that's the sacrifice he has to make if he wants the opportunity at a title. Make Shaq run out to cover Okur's shot...and let Okur choose between taking the shot before Shaq can get there, and DRIVING INTO SHAQ AS HE'S COMING OUT. Those calls will go Okur's way, as the NBA calls APPEARANCE, not execution. Okur will get into some ugly collisions...and take some hard hits.
For Rasheed Wallace, you're looking at doing the same thing as Mehmet Okur, except starting on the block. Rasheed should be looking for contact on every post shot he takes.
For Campbell, this is where you let Campbell goon up on Shaq, after he's had his fill of the others. Push Shaq. Make him upset. Plant an elbow in his chest for an offensive foul. An angry and brain-dead Shaq is worth one possession, so INCENSE SHAQ. Make Shaq want to get even...and watch him fume as his teammates don't get him the ball and give him the opportunity.
This strategy is going to fail in game one - guaranteed. There is NO WAY for the Pistons to win game 1. But if you stick with this strategy throughout game 1, it should plant the discontent necessary to swing the series.
The problem is that LA has Malone and Fox - enforcers. Play dirty with Shaq, and these guys will make other people pay for it. And that means you need buy-in by the entire Detroit team, and that Larry Brown needs to work the refs constantly.
Personally, I can't see Detroit posing any kind of threat to Los Angeles if they DON'T do something like this. If they want the title "Bad Boys," then this series, they're going to have to earn it.
I say Lakers in 6.
