ESPN Chat Stuff

[TheGuiltyParty]

Lots of Sixer questions but there were a few that interested me that didn't involve the Sixers....

Mayank (Philadelphia, PA): If the 76ers clear $15 million in cap space and FAIL to sign Elton Brand, will they throw the kitchen sink at PF Josh Smith and do the Hawks have the stones to match an offer starting at $15 million per year?

SportsNation John Hollinger: Yes, that's the plan, and kudos to Sixers GM Ed Stefanski -- I had thought he'd need to trade Andre Miller to create enough space, but he found a different path that worked. I suspect the Hawks would still match Smith, but obviously it's a different equation at $15 mil than it is at $12 mil. And one other thing -- if the Hawks match Smith, Stefanski can go after both Maggette AND Childress with his cap war chest if he so chooses.

Josh (St. Paul, MN): What do you think of this rumored deal between Philly and Minnesota that helps Philly clear cap space? Is it a good deal for the Wolves too?

SportsNation John Hollinger: I think so -- they're basically getting Rodney Carney and a late first-rounder for free. Carney isn't just a contract, he's actually a useful player (though at a position where Minny has about 30 other guys).

Josh (Scottsdale, AZ): Is Elton Brand really considering signing up with the sixers? I mean, REALLY? I understand the point about heading out East. But even with the West being stacked, I'm still not seeing anyone getting past Boston/Detroit in the next 2 years except maybe Orlando or an out-of-this-world-Lebron and scrubs. Isn't he better off rolling with Baron and hoping Gordon becomes a stud?

SportsNation John Hollinger: No, the Sixers have far more potential than the Clips or Warriors -- loaded with young talent like Thaddeus Young, Louis Williams and Andre Iguodala, plus a couple solid starters with Dalembert and Andre Miller. I actually think adding Brand makes them really, really dangerous.

Darnell (Otown): Things have been very quiet in Detroit. What do you see them doing?

SportsNation John Hollinger: Staying quiet ..., until mid-August or so. Look, usually the trades don't happen until the free agent frenzy is done and everybody sees what they have. I know this is driving Pistons fans crazy while they wait for the other shoe to drop, but you probably need to hang tight for at least another month.

Brad (Memphis): Since Rodney Carney is a local player and they have a need for more swingmen, doesn't Carney make more sense to go to Memphis than Minnesota?

SportsNation John Hollinger: For Carney, absolutely. I'm not sure it works as well for the Sixers though, because they can stuff another contract into Minnesota's trade exception.

Eric (Elkhart,IN): Will the Hawks not have to match any offer now that it seems the Sixers are going to get Brand?

SportsNation John Hollinger: Could be the case, as Memphis hasn't made any kind of move and Golden State seems lukewarm on Smith too.

Talib, Philly: Your gut feeling, Brand will be a part of the Sixers or Clippers tommrow?

SportsNation John Hollinger: Sixers. I don't think they'd be dealing away Carney unless they saw some smoke signals coming from Brand's tepee. But that's just me speculating.

Greg (Denver, CO): Does Philly get the benefit of using the entire $5.2 exception that they are acquiring in the Minnesota trade?

SportsNation John Hollinger: They don't get any of it because they're already under the cap, so there's nothing to be 'excepted'.

Alex (Levittown, PA): Hypothetically, do you envision Philly making any more changes if they succeed in locking up Brand?

SportsNation John Hollinger: Yes, they need to get a shooter somehow, but that may be easier to come by if they're established themselves as a potential contender.

Mike (Minneapolis): Are there restrictions preventing the Wolves from flipping Carney to Memphis for a PG like Lowry?

SportsNation John Hollinger: No, I believe it's possible under the cap to make it a three-way trade and do exactly that, which would help both teams I would think.

Andrew ( Philly): Wouldn't it make sense for philly to try and trade AI2 and a first rounder or two for Ellis. He seems like the more ideal fit at the 2 if they get Brand?

SportsNation John Hollinger: Sixers already have a carbon copy in Louis Williams. He's not as good as Ellis, but he does exactly the same things.

Eli Myer (E. Northbrook, IL): John- Is it possible G. State, after getting turned down by Brand, throws the kitchen sink at Deng and the Bulls do NOT match? And be forced into a sign and trade? Or is Pax matching at all costs?

SportsNation John Hollinger: That's the real wild card here -- what does GST do if it doesn't get Brand? They could go after Deng, or Iguodala, or Maggette, or Smith ... a lot of options there.
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I find it interesting that we could see GSW go after Iguodala although it has been speculated about before. Also, I really think Rip Hamilton should be on our radar for possible players who could be available. I'm sure Iguodala will get his deal sooner than later but I really think that if we took one more step this summer we could be contenders.

[jemagee]

Andre Iguodala AND a first rounder or two for ellis?  Dude, that deal stinks

[jemagee]

Mike (Minneapolis): Are there restrictions preventing the Wolves from flipping Carney to Memphis for a PG like Lowry?

SportsNation John Hollinger: No, I believe it's possible under the cap to make it a three-way trade and do exactly that, which would help both teams I would think.

This would irritate me a bit

[tk76-]

I liked this article by Hollinger so much I decided to just paste it- too many good bits to chose from:

http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/columns/story?columnist=hollinger_john&page=Brand-Sixers-080709

Brand new Sixers are instant East challengers
Elton Brand is expected to become a Sixer, and let's just say the Eastern Conference race is now a lot more interesting.

Are the Philadelphia 76ers, as presently constituted, good enough to win the East in the 2008-09 season? Doubtful.

But are the Sixers good enough to win a playoff series or two and scare the bejeezus out of Detroit and Boston? You bet. And if they add a shooter and get another year of growth from all their young studs, will they be in position to win the conference in 2010? Absolutely.

It's amazing to think this is the same team that dealt Allen Iverson less than two years ago because their prospects had become so grim, and the same squad that fired general manager Billy King last winter in the wake of several awful contracts.

The Sixers' turnaround may not seem fast compared to Boston's worst-to-first U-turn, but has been amazingly swift by anyone else's standards. Even without Brand, Philly had rebounded impressively enough from a 5-13 start to take the Pistons to six tough games in the first round of the playoffs this spring. And Philly did this with two gaping, open sores on their roster: power forward and shooting guard.

Brand, obviously, fills the power forward slot quite nicely and gives the Sixers the half-court, low-post threat they so obviously needed. Philadelphia's primary option there last season was Reggie Evans, a warrior and a gamer whose low skill level is reflected in his stats: a pedestrian 11.05 player efficiency rating, just 9.0 points per 40 minutes and 43.8 percent shooting. The Sixers also used Thaddeus Young, a teenaged rookie who is going to be unbelievably good but was undersized for the 4 spot at 6-foot-8, 220 pounds, and another, much less impressive rookie in Jason Smith.

Now they can replace Evans and Smith with Brand, move Young back to his natural small forward spot, and plug Evans into the backup big man role that he was meant to play. Plus, moving Young to small forward means moving Andre Iguodala to shooting guard, which takes care of the other problem in the Sixers' starting lineup.

Willie Green moves to the bench and soaks up the minutes vacated by the trade of Rodney Carney, Louis Williams stays in his sixth-man Microwave role behind Andre Miller at the point, and everybody lives happily ever after.

Here's how the math works. Let's be conservative and say Brand isn't quite the player he was before the Achilles injury, and puts up a PER of "only" about 20. (His career PER is 22.7, and not counting his 2007-08 lost season, his lowest mark in L.A. was 21.7.) That's still better than anybody on the Sixers had last season, and nearly doubles the PER of Evans and Smith. My basic rule of thumb is every additional point of PER over 2,000 minutes of play is worth an additional win, meaning replacing the Smith/Evans combo with Brand should be worth nearly 10 wins.

If so, that takes the Sixers from 42.5 wins a season ago (their expected wins based on their point differential) to 52 in 2008-09.

And 52 wins in the East makes you a pretty strong contender.

That, mind you, is without considering any improvement from the rest of the roster. But one has to think the Sixers would have been better in the coming season even without adding Brand. Consider that Young boated a 16.58 PER as a 19-year-old rookie last season even while playing half his minutes out of position, or that Williams was at 16.71 when he should have been a junior in college, or that Smith can still get better and first-round pick Marreese Speights should provide added frontcourt beef.

Conversely, the only key player one could reliably expect to perform worse than last season is Miller, a 32-year-old point guard. Even here, the Sixers are somewhat insured -- he's in his walk year, and Williams is waiting in the wings.

If there's a reason the Celtics shouldn't be exactly quaking in their boots quite yet, it's because Philly still has one glaring weakness: outside shooting. Philly was last in 3-point percentage last season and at some point the Sixers need to get a shooter to make defenses pay for double-teaming Brand and collapsing against the drives of Iguodala, Miller and Young.

Unfortunately, the Sixers had to trade an ace shooter, Kyle Korver, in order to generate the cap space to bring in Brand. It's a deal they'd do again in a heartbeat, obviously, but it's also somewhat ironic. Fortunately, they're now in position to nab prospective veteran free agents who are looking to join a contender -- a status that was unthinkable nine months ago -- and should be able to pick up a shooter on the cheap at some point between now and the playoffs.

Philly also has to do some housekeeping by retaining Iguodala -- a restricted free agent who could become the target of a big-money raid by the Clippers, especially if they're hell-bent on revenge -- and Williams, who is also restricted. But that shouldn't be a major obstacle given their solid cap position and ability to match any offer.

Even with poor shooting, the Sixers should ascend into the East's upper crust. Boston and Detroit are obviously where the discussion begins in this conference, and Orlando (which made an underrated pickup of their own today in Mickael Pietrus), Cleveland and perhaps Toronto also have to be seen as strong threats.

But none of those teams bursts with potential the way Philly does, and now the Sixers have a 29-year-old low-post rock to be the centerpiece. Much like Kevin Garnett in Boston, Brand could become the key piece to a conference champion. The big difference is that, given his new team's youth, in Brand's case it will likely take more than a year to break through.

John Hollinger

[tk76-]

I would counter to Hollinger's closing:

It may take Brand more than  the year it took KG, but Brand's Sixers are better equiped to challenge for the foreseeable future, and did not morgage their best young players for the chance to contend.

[DuckyNinja]

I would counter to Hollinger's closing:

It may take Brand more than  the year it took KG, but Brand's Sixers are better equiped to challenge for the foreseeable future, and did not morgage their best young players for the chance to contend.

To be fair, he did say the Sixers were bursting with potential and now have a rock.  That's pretty much the same thing.

[jemagee]

Who can forsee the future of the sixers at point guard?

[johnny broad-street]

The Shadow knows.....

Honestly, I think we have learned that so many things are possible that it's really hard to pin down scenarios. I will say this....Ed has earned some trust from me bby doing what needed to be done and making a move that good teams make.

[jemagee]

My point is that the 'forseeable' future seems like a year because they need a PG one way or another after next season, be it miller extending or working a deal, and there are still all the issues dbodner points out, whether people want to recognize them or not they seem to be real issues.

They are a top 4 team in the east, but it seems to me that the east is top heavy, with a 1 (and maybe a 2, who knows what they do in the off season) and then a dropoff before you get to 3/4/5, and then another drop off to 6/7/8.

It's a step in the right direction but a few more steps need to be taken....again, i want the teams i root for to be considered TITLE contenders, not just 'upper half' of conference, win a series, teams...so he ain't done yet. (Ed)

[jemagee]

Nice to see Tom Moore get some run on ESPN this morning, he's my fave sixer writer

[jemagee]

Skip Bayless is a total putz

[Skates]

Skip Bayless is a total putz

And in other news the sky is blue and the sun rose in the east today.

[tk76-]

Nice to see Tom Moore get some run on ESPN this morning, he's my fave sixer writer

Agree- he is the best of the bunch by a comfortable margin.
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Ed has clearly proven he can handle the vagaries of being an NBA GM and get big moves done.  The Sixers still have a ton of chips they can move around over the next few years- especially if their young players pan out.

A simple move like Miller+Evans for Marion would catapult the team into contender status this year (Thad 30 mpg off the bench)- but it would require a Rondo-esque leap of faith with Lou at the PG leading a stacked line-up.

I'm not trying to throw out some randowm fantasy trade- just trying to show that I think Brand is just the first huge move for Ed, and he will at very least tinker from here.

[jemagee]

Obtaining shawn marion and forcing louis williams to elevate his game to here to fore plateaus unknown ain't tinkering, tinkering is trading willie green for a guy off the bench who shoots the 3 better than the rest of the team

Like I said yesterday, when the sixers get brand, the next step is what's next, and that's how i feel the GM should be thinking as well...enjoy the moment, moments over, do the next thing, cause this team ain't done yet.

[shadowTerp]

Obtaining shawn marion and forcing louis williams to elevate his game to here to fore plateaus unknown ain't tinkering, tinkering is trading willie green for a guy off the bench who shoots the 3 better than the rest of the team

Like I said yesterday, when the sixers get brand, the next step is what's next, and that's how i feel the GM should be thinking as well...enjoy the moment, moments over, do the next thing, cause this team ain't done yet.

I agree... but Ed's hands are tied until we sign Igoudala and Williams... which is what he should be concentrating on (and noting to Iggy how Brand took roughly 10% less to sign with Philly instead of Golden State). 

Do you think we traded Carney away because there was a market for Green?  I guarantee you that if Minnesota was willing to take the UTH 1st + Green (without sending us a 2nd round back) that we would have gladly done that instead.  Ed's a good GM, but he's not a miracle worker.  We're stuck with Green unless he's part of a Miller deal.