Hi, new poster here, posted occasionally on the realgm boards under the same name, but I doubt anyone remembered me.
My thoughts on Smith:
He definitely wouldn't be Number one on my priority list, but he's a decent fit with our current team and would certainly improve it, though not, I fear to the next level. Lukewarm just about sums it up, though I don't think he'll be as bad as some are making it out to be.
The Good:
Smith makes us an even better open court team. Possibly the best in the league, not only at finishing, but also at creating opportunities through steals. Finishing I won't bother going into, it's obvious. Smith, as a second weakside shot blocker would probably allow the rest of the perimeter players to gamble more on steals, leading to fast break opportunities, without negatively impacting their defense too much. I don't have stats or anything to back it up, but I would guess that having a second shot blocker would help out Dalembert a great deal; he wouldn't have to rotate nearly as much from penetrations given up from players unsucessfully playing the passing lanes, and he'd SHOULD be able to contribute more on the defensive glass in boxing out his man if he doesn't have to help. From what I saw near the end of the season, our perimeter defenders were becoming pretty damn good at recovering and contesting jumpshots (case in point, end of Game 1 vs. Detroit, this sticks out most firmly in my mind), and adding Smith would only help our help defense as a whole and our running game. (Didn't even bother trying to justify Smith's blocking as possibly helping our fastbreaks, most of his blocks are simply sent flying into the stands.)
Here are some random players I checked the stats of on 82games: Bryant, Pierce, James, Ginobili, Parker, Iguodala, Johnson, Allen, McGrady, Melo, Nowitzki, Duncan, Garnett, Wallace, Brand. They all have a more than a few things in common, they're stars, and they've all represented their team in all-star games. Here's another: Josh Smith drew fouls at a higher frequency than ALL of them. I've watched Smith play for only 2 games this year, admittedly, but those stats tell you something. Smith wouldn't exactly be a useless vegetable some make him out to be in the halfcourt. He excels at getting to the line, something we were horribly lacking in last year. In fact, if you wanted to obtain someone better than him in this regard, you have two targets--Wade and Howard. Smith would give us that ref-appeal factor we desperately need to, and he would charge up our fan base.
EDIT: Forgot about Iverson (!), who checks in at a rate of 0.1% above Smith.
This has nothing to do with Smith directly, but I think we'll do a good job next year beating a clog the lane or zone defense, even with his addition. It's a myth I've seen perpetuated on message boards that having 3 point shooters is a prerequisite to break down a zone, having consistent shooters out to about 20 feet would be enough to break it. Rip, for example, would be a godsend to this team. We don't have Rip, but we do have players I think that could develop into being decent out to about 20-22 feet. Thaddeus Young and Speights both have excellent forms on their Js and can only improve, while Smith, Miller and Iguodala have already shown this year that they can be a threat from 17-20. Smith and Iguodala can probably improve, along with the likes of Carney and Lou. I count about 6 potential players who could become excellent mid-long range shooters, and if only 2-3 pan out, I think that will be more than enough to somewhat deter teams from using that defense every time down the court.
Smith isn't also a particularly bad playmaker in a halfcourt set, from what I've heard from savvier Hawks fans, he is actually a pretty decent passer, think Kirilenko. I'm told he has the ability to make pretty spectacular passes.
Smith has attitude. We need it. See Evans and what he brought to the playoffs last year. I'm banking on Smith bringing similar intangibles.
It's now or never. There are a TON of expirings next year, and half the teams in the league will be able to sign FAs, not only us Memphis. Plus, the PF FA crop won't be as good (Boozer wants 6/126M???).
Damn, I think I've just convinced myself we need to sign him.
