Let's not forget Cleveland won both matchups against the Spurs this year! The first time, the Cavs probably weren't on the Spurs radar, but you know that the Spurs try to beat everyone they play. In the second game, the Spurs really wanted to win and couldn't. So the Cavs can win against the Spurs.
But in a seven game series, it comes down to the best team and based on experience and talent you have to pick the Spurs. That's the logical choice, and the Spurs have demonstrated that they are the best team in the Western conference, and look ready to take another title.
Cleveland on the other hand, is a very young team, centered around a superlative talent in LeBron James. He is the second coming of Michael Jordan, a non-center good enough to overcome another team on his own. Like Jordan before him, he had to go through all the teams in the East and surprised many by beating Detroit in 6.
The final game against Detroit, showed that Cleveland can outplay Detroit even when LeBron isn't involved in the offense as anything more than a passer. Hughes, Pavlovic, Gooden and Ilgauskas played their normal games and Gibson showed that on a given night, he can shoot like Michael Finley.
Detroit is known for their defense, but they had no answer for the Cavs. They took LeBron out of the game and still lost. Scoring only 20 for the Cavs, the team still put up 98 pts, in regulation against one of the better defensive teams in the league.
Detroit lost their poise and swagger in that series. I think they felt they were beat the moment they stepped on the floor in game 6. LeBron did that to them and that counts for something.
The truth is Clevland matches up well with San Antonio. They have the size up front, and a guard tandem that outplayed Billups and Hamilton. They have a better chance than a snowball in hell. This is a dangerous series for the Spurs in as much as they could actually loose. It would be to their advantage to close them out quickly and convincingly. If, like Detroit they merely eek out wins at home, and give Cleveland any hope, it will become a series instead of a formality.
Until I see a game or two, I'm picking the Spurs to win, but unlike most, I think Cleveland has more than a little shot at an upset.