Why Cavs would stand no chance against the Spurs...

[rickortreat]

So who is going to be LeBron's 20 point fishing buddy?

Larry Hughes and Donyell Marshall.

That's two players Rick...and so far the have averaged 12.9 and 3.5 points respectively.  According to my fuzzy Texass math that's a little short of 20.

Besides the Cavs second leading scorer is Z.

You're right, Ilgauskas would be the most likely candidate.  IMO, Fabs is going to have a tough time with Z.

I know a little about Larry, since he was drafted by the Sixers.  He has some game, but hasn't established himself as a reliable second-scorer. He's a bit quicker than Finley, and will be able to guard him as well as anyone can.  On the offensive end, he will have a tough time getting through the Spurs defenders as a primary player, but once all eyes are on LeBron, he'd be a likely candidate to step it up.  He did average 19 pts. against the Cavs first-round opponent. Finley won't be able to keep up with him, but Larry should be able to keep up with Manu.

[Lurker]

So who is going to be LeBron's 20 point fishing buddy?

Larry Hughes and Donyell Marshall.

That's two players Rick...and so far the have averaged 12.9 and 3.5 points respectively.  According to my fuzzy Texass math that's a little short of 20.

Besides the Cavs second leading scorer is Z.

You're right, Ilgauskas would be the most likely candidate.  IMO, Fabs is going to have a tough time with Z.

I know a little about Larry, since he was drafted by the Sixers.  He has some game, but hasn't established himself as a reliable second-scorer. He's a bit quicker than Finley, and will be able to guard him as well as anyone can.  On the offensive end, he will have a tough time getting through the Spurs defenders as a primary player, but once all eyes are on LeBron, he'd be a likely candidate to step it up.  He did average 19 pts. against the Cavs first-round opponent. Finley won't be able to keep up with him, but Larry should be able to keep up with Manu.

But can Larry on a sore foot keep up with Parker...his opposing PG?  Or will Gibson be able to?  Sasha will have to guard Finley/Manu.  Finley should post him up occasionally and Manu will turn him around in circles.

IMHO Detroit is the team I hope the Spurs play.  No one on that squad can defend Duncan.  Sheed is the best but if he spends the energy playing post defense then his offensive game slips.  Webber will be exposed even more.  And the lack of bench will hurt.

The Cavs would be the much tougher opponent for the Spurs.  They have two high energy big men (Gooden/Varejao) that can bump and pester Duncan.  They have Z who can step out and hit the 15 footer.  James will get his points regardless.  And they play a tough pressing defense.  However with Hughes hurting it cuts into their depth at the guard spot.  Also the Cavs are like the Jazz in experience...never been this far (finals) before.  Snow is the only player with finals experience.  I think a big part of their success against the Pistons is because they played them last year in the playoffs. 

Can the Cavs handle Duncan one-on-one to keep the shooters off the arc?  Utah & Phoenix both tried and got burned.  The Spurs are the top 3 pt shooting team in the playoffs.  So you have to pick your poison...Duncan or the shooters.

[JoMal]

A better question might be can James shoot that well consistantly...so far he is just 17-53 (.321) from 3 pt land for the playoffs.  And that includes his amazing 2-3 outing last night.

Last night he had no issues with either the outside OR inside Piston defense - and their team defense (even with Webber) is pretty decent.

Talent-wise...yes I stand by that statement.  Cohesiveness as a team...Cavs are far better than the Lakers.

Clearly. But the East is not really representative of the overall talent in the NBA these days. I would be greatly surprised if the finals goes six games.

[Lurker]

A better question might be can James shoot that well consistantly...so far he is just 17-53 (.321) from 3 pt land for the playoffs.  And that includes his amazing 2-3 outing last night.

Last night he had no issues with either the outside OR inside Piston defense - and their team defense (even with Webber) is pretty decent.

And James did that once in 5 games.  I'll concede him one game like that in the finals...but how will the Cavs win 3 of the other 6?  Back to the consistancy question.

[westkoast]

The Pistons and Spurs do not play the same type of defense.  They play good team defense but they lack someone in the middle who is a true shot blocker.  The Spurs obviously don't have that problem.  Although I do have to admit I think Prince is better suited to attempt to guard Lebron then Bruce Bowen.

[rickortreat]

A better question might be can James shoot that well consistantly...so far he is just 17-53 (.321) from 3 pt land for the playoffs.  And that includes his amazing 2-3 outing last night.

Last night he had no issues with either the outside OR inside Piston defense - and their team defense (even with Webber) is pretty decent.

And James did that once in 5 games.  I'll concede him one game like that in the finals...but how will the Cavs win 3 of the other 6?  Back to the consistancy question.

First things first.  Let's see if Cleveland can close out Detroit in 6 and how they do it.

Who knows what LeBron is capable of?  Now that he can see his way to a title, you can expect him to do everything he can to get one.  He can't carry his team for 4 quarters against anyone, let alone the Spurs, but he can carry a team for 9 minutes in the 4th quarter and close out a game for you.

To me the whole issue is can Cleveland keep the games close enough so that LeBron can influence the outcome?  That means keeping a tie with San Antonio at the end of the third/beginning of the fourth quarter in each game.  For all we know San Antonio will blow them out of the building and they won't be able to keep it close.

If Cleveland can deal with Detroits' front court players, it should be able to deal with San Antonio's.  Their guards have outplayed Hamilton and Billups for the most part. They should be able to deal with Parker and Finley.  It's a lot of pressure for them to deal with, and San Antonio has the experience.

Until we see one game between the teams, it's impossible to make a prediction on how the series can go. But no-one should discount Cleveland just because they're comming out of the East.  This Detroit team won in the finals a few years ago and the Cavs just beat them at home in a critical game 5.   

[JoMal]

A better question might be can James shoot that well consistantly...so far he is just 17-53 (.321) from 3 pt land for the playoffs.  And that includes his amazing 2-3 outing last night.

Last night he had no issues with either the outside OR inside Piston defense - and their team defense (even with Webber) is pretty decent.

And James did that once in 5 games.  I'll concede him one game like that in the finals...but how will the Cavs win 3 of the other 6?  Back to the consistancy question.

Maybe they will win a game or two the same way they won games 3 and 4 against the Pistons, when, as you say, LeBron did not go off like he did in game five.

[Lurker]

A better question might be can James shoot that well consistantly...so far he is just 17-53 (.321) from 3 pt land for the playoffs.  And that includes his amazing 2-3 outing last night.

Last night he had no issues with either the outside OR inside Piston defense - and their team defense (even with Webber) is pretty decent.

And James did that once in 5 games.  I'll concede him one game like that in the finals...but how will the Cavs win 3 of the other 6?  Back to the consistancy question.

Maybe they will win a game or two the same way they won games 3 and 4 against the Pistons, when, as you say, LeBron did not go off like he did in game five.

May be.  Also may be that he doesn't go off on the Spurs like he did in game 5.  Then we are back to square one.

[westkoast]

Hay guys...the series isn't over yet

[SPURSX3]

It's not a surprise to see Rick picking ANY other team than SA to win a series this playoffs. Unlike Lurker I will say that I have my worries about playing Cleveland.  IMHO I feel the Cavs will give us more of a series than the Pistons will.  Oh and as for Bowen having less of a chance than at stopping Lebron I have to wonder if you are saying Prince is a better defender than Bowen - which is NO - he is not.  Bowen does some sneaky stuff out there (like most smart players try to do - F-I-S-H-E-R - ) and can get under anyones skin.  HOWEVER, if you are saying he would do no better than Prince because he will have the nasty task of taking on the King - well I can understand that and will agree with you in that regard.  The Spurs have NO defense for James, the man will run on us all day everyday, no doubt.  I will agree with Lurker in that this is the type of basketball our system is built for, we won't waste five guys on the court to take down one superstar, shut down everyone else (even that guy who looks like 'Side Show Bob') and let James try to take it on his own.  Yes, he did it in the fourth quarter yesterday - give him the whole game and see if we can't make even him get tired out there.  James is going to score and Pop has already taken this into account.  The reason I think Cleveland stands any chance at all of beating us is because AGAIN you have another coach, and front office for that matter, that is basically 'Spurs East.'  They know our system and how we get things done.  It's like taking on another Avery Johnson.  I say the Spurs will win in 6.  No offense but the Pistons look like scrubs right now, they walk with the attitude but they can't back it up any more - still a good team, just not as scary as they used to be.  to be honest the Cavs should have swept them.  James was just too conservative in games 1 and 2.  Now will they do that to us?  I can't see how we can be playing as incredible as we are right now and end up losing to either squad from the east.  I'm saying it now, four trips to the finals, four different teams, four titles (Wow gets paid on his bet.)   

[Lurker]

It's not a surprise to see Rick picking ANY other team than SA to win a series this playoffs. Unlike Lurker I will say that I have my worries about playing Cleveland.  IMHO I feel the Cavs will give us more of a series than the Pistons will. 

I think you misunderstand me.  As I said in a couple posts above...I would rather play the Pistons.  I feel they are the easier matchup.   

I also feel a Cavs series will go 6 or 7 games.  And be very exciting...the Spurs will play them basically like they do the Kobe led Lakers.  Let the one guy go off and control the rest.  The other problem area (like Denver & Utah) is offensive rebounding.  The Cavs are strong at it (because the opposing big men have to react to James). 

I'm saying it now, four trips to the finals, four different teams, four titles (Wow gets paid on his bet.)   

The 99 title was one team.  Otherwise the 03 & 05 teams were the same as this one...Duncan, PArker, Ginobili and Bowen.  The role players have changed Jackson, Kerr, Horry, Finley.  And the two years that they lost (04 & 06) they were close.  In 04 they lost the infamous 0.4 game 5 on their home court.  Then last year that tough game 7 to Dallas.  A couple breaks here or there and THIS Spurs team could be looking for their 5th straight title.  Shows how difficult it is to win year after year.

[Reality]

Pistons:  Isn't it obvious not playing Nazr is costing them big time.

The Lebrons.  Lurker is correct, let him get his 40.  I did not compile these, but check these takes and stats out:

LeBron's game against the Pistons is proof that he is the second coming of MJ, right? No team can contain him, and he has the ability to win a game single-handedly, through sheer force of will. If (when) the Cavs advance, the Spurs are in serious danger, because they have no answer for LeBron. Right?

Well let's see. He scored 30 in regulation - a good game, but not exactly unstoppable. Then he dropped 18 on the Pistons in the two overtime periods (10 minutes), which proves that LeBron can't be contained. So what about Manu dropping 16 points on the Jazz in a 10 minute stretch in the fourth quarter of Game 4? Why aren't people recognizing that Ginobili is unstoppable? What answer will the Cavs defense have for him?

Maybe the difference is that LeBron does it all the time. I'm sure he's done the same thing dozens of other times this season. So let's take a look at LeBron's other big games:

The only other time LeBron scored more than 40 in a game this season? He scored 41, also with the help of OT minutes. Strangely, it was also against the Pistons.

He scored 39 abainst the Bulls - also overtime. But he only had 32 in regulation, none in the last 7 minutes. (The Cavs only scored 2 points in the last 7 minutes, which is the reason the game even went to OT.)

He scored 39 against the Sixers. Double overtime. Cavs lost.
He scored 39 against the Mavs in regulation. Cavs lost.
He scored 38 against the Celtics in regulation. Cavs win by 1.
He scored 37 against Charlotte. Overtime. Cavs lost.
He scored 37 against the Nets in regulation. Cavs Lost.

I've said it before...the Spurs won't get a trophy for beating LeBron. The trophy will be for beating the Cavs (assuming they beat the Pistons). And when LeBron throws up big numbers, his team usually doesn't fare so well.

Most of the time, LeBron puts up numbers a lot like what Deron Williams put on the Spurs. Maybe DeRon was unstoppable....but his team wasn't. And if LeBron is scoring 37-38-39 points, it's because the rest of his team sucks that night, and the Cavs probably don't win the game. The media has to try and create some kind of suspense and excitement for the finals. But Spurs fans don't. If the Cavs can manage to get past Detroit...bring em on. LeBron may be unstoppable. But the Cavs damned sure aren't.

[SPURSX3]

It's not a surprise to see Rick picking ANY other team than SA to win a series this playoffs. Unlike Lurker I will say that I have my worries about playing Cleveland.  IMHO I feel the Cavs will give us more of a series than the Pistons will. 

I think you misunderstand me.  As I said in a couple posts above...I would rather play the Pistons.  I feel they are the easier matchup.   

I also feel a Cavs series will go 6 or 7 games.  And be very exciting...the Spurs will play them basically like they do the Kobe led Lakers.  Let the one guy go off and control the rest.  The other problem area (like Denver & Utah) is offensive rebounding.  The Cavs are strong at it (because the opposing big men have to react to James). 

I'm saying it now, four trips to the finals, four different teams, four titles (Wow gets paid on his bet.)   

The 99 title was one team.  Otherwise the 03 & 05 teams were the same as this one...Duncan, PArker, Ginobili and Bowen.  The role players have changed Jackson, Kerr, Horry, Finley.  And the two years that they lost (04 & 06) they were close.  In 04 they lost the infamous 0.4 game 5 on their home court.  Then last year that tough game 7 to Dallas.  A couple breaks here or there and THIS Spurs team could be looking for their 5th straight title.  Shows how difficult it is to win year after year.

"four different teams" as in four different opponents..

[spursfan-101]

I think the Spurs will let Lebron get his 40, they just won't let anybody else get theirs.

On the flipside, what makes this an interesting series is the SA connection that Cleveland has. Ferry and Brown both know Pops system in detail, he may just cause the Spurs some fits. Spurs are favored and the better team...then again, so were the Mavs against Golden State!

[westkoast]

Honestly I just don't see a rookie getting 31 on the Spurs in the finals.  To me the Spurs need to worry more about Hughes, Marshall, and Z then Lebron.  He is going to get his points regardless if they throw a barrage like the battle at the Alamo at him.  I'd almost say (based on my uncanny ability to assume ) more times then not it is the second and third scorer that are more important then the person you expect to drop 30-40 points.  No answer for one player does not win a series and all finals team have done it with team work.