OT- stupid question of the day...

[jn]

:lol:

You couldn't have picked a worse guy to try and talk into that.  My Academic Advisor in college specialized in studying how people viewed probabilty so I went through four years of probablity studies aimed at show how stupid gambling is.  I would never, ever fall preay to "the tax on the stupid."

By the way, thanks for the reminder to cash in these winning scratch offs.  

 

[Reality]

jn,

you and all boardies (woops make that most) might dig or have dug the Discovery Channels show on "Beating the System".  Show was about a team of MIT students who worked the casino games in teams.  Seems the Vegas Casino greedoids had long since learned how to spot individual or two team system beaters, but they had not a clue how to beat the 4 and even 6 person teams this group put together.  They hozed Vegas for millions before some Casino boot licking private eye firm using extra cameras and facial recognition thus slowly caught onto them.  The group was using costumes to change their identity.  Cowboy Bob one night, Sasparilla Suzie (team had women also), next night business mogul type, etc.

  I was invited to be part of the team.  I can't say it wasn't tempting.  I hate the rip off odds the casinos use to extort.

[jn]

I did see a little of that.  Smart kids who, of course, got greedy.

"Extort" nothing!  It's a business and long odds are how they make money.  They make A LOT of money because people are, in a word, idiots.

The only extortion going on right now is Minnesota sports teams trying to break the Indians exlusive Casino rights to fund stadiums for spoiled millionaire athletes and their billionaire owners.  

[WayOutWest]

Craps, 21 and even Poker are good bets in Vegas.  In Craps you can play like the house if you have the stones.

I don't know about those asian card games.

Regarding the lottery....

The biggest misconception is that you have as good a chance as everyone else to win the lotto.  That is not true.  When you put your money down you are in essence betting against EVERYONE else who bought a lotto ticket.  So it's you vs hundreds of thousands of people.  

The lottory is just a tax for people who are very bad at math, not a tax on the stupid.  A true "tax on the stupid" is Kings and Timberwolves playoff tickets.

[SPURSX3]

Craps, 21 and even Poker are good bets in Vegas.  In Craps you can play like the house if you have the stones.

I don't know about those asian card games.

Regarding the lottery....

The biggest misconception is that you have as good a chance as everyone else to win the lotto.  That is not true.  When you put your money down you are in essence betting against EVERYONE else who bought a lotto ticket.  So it's you vs hundreds of thousands of people.  

The lottory is just a tax for people who are very bad at math, not a tax on the stupid.  A true "tax on the stupid" is Kings and Timberwolves playoff tickets.

LMFAO!

[jn]

"The lottory is just a tax for people who are very bad at math, not a tax on the stupid. A true "tax on the stupid" is Kings and Timberwolves playoff tickets. "


That is pretty funny until you consider it's from a guy who posted a picture of himself at Staples to say "I wisely invested in Clippers tickets!"  

 

[jn]

Now wait a minute WOW.  Are you saying that an increased number of tickets purchased affects the probability of your numbers being picked?

Do explain.  

[Lurker]

Now wait a minute WOW.  Are you saying that an increased number of tickets purchased affects the probability of your numbers being picked?

Do explain.

I had the same thought.  Your chance in the lottery is 1 in 15-16 million depending on the state.  The number of tickets sold has no impact on the results.  It is the same as rolling a die....there is a 1 in 6 chance of your number coming up.  And no matter how many people roll the die the odds don't change.

[WayOutWest]

Now wait a minute WOW.  Are you saying that an increased number of tickets purchased affects the probability of your numbers being picked?

Do explain.

I had the same thought.  Your chance in the lottery is 1 in 15-16 million depending on the state.  The number of tickets sold has no impact on the results.  It is the same as rolling a die....there is a 1 in 6 chance of your number coming up.  And no matter how many people roll the die the odds don't change.

I think it has to do more on wether or not you use fixed numbers or quick picks.  There is not such thing as a random number when it comes to computers, so with quick picks the averages change.

As far as what numbers are drawn, you guys are correct.  The odds of a particular number being drawn in any particular position remain the same.

i.e.  A = max number (in Cali it's 1-53) so your odds of picking the correct sequence is: A * (A-1) * (A-2) * (A-3) * (A-4) * (A).  The last number is A again because it's the bonus number and it can be any number regardless of wether or not it was already used.

My comment was regarding the misconception that your ticket has as much chance of winning as everyone else.  I don't think that's true.  Lets say 10 million people are playing.  You have as good a shot at winning, I'm talking quick picks here cause fixed numbers change the odds, as any one particular person but you're really going up against those 10 million people as a whole.  It's the same as if you buy one ticket and I buy 10 million.  Who is more likely to win?

[Lurker]

Lets say 10 million people are playing.  You have as good a shot at winning, I'm talking quick picks here cause fixed numbers change the odds, as any one particular person but you're really going up against those 10 million people as a whole.  It's the same as if you buy one ticket and I buy 10 million.  Who is more likely to win?

You are more likely to win but it is because you are betting on 10 million different combinations (out of a possible 16 million) while I would be betting on 1 combination.  But the odds of any 1 of your 10 million tickets winning is no different than the odds of my 1 ticket winning.  1 out of approx 16 million.


BTW I read once where you have a better chance of being struck by lightning than winning a lottery.

[WayOutWest]

You are more likely to win but it is because you are betting on 10 million different combinations (out of a possible 16 million) while I would be betting on 1 combination.  But the odds of any 1 of your 10 million tickets winning is no different than the odds of my 1 ticket winning.  1 out of approx 16 million.
 

That's exactly my point.  It's actually your 1 ticket vs 10 million tickets.

[Lurker]

You are more likely to win but it is because you are betting on 10 million different combinations (out of a possible 16 million) while I would be betting on 1 combination.  But the odds of any 1 of your 10 million tickets winning is no different than the odds of my 1 ticket winning.  1 out of approx 16 million.
 

That's exactly my point.  It's actually your 1 ticket vs 10 million tickets.

No, it is my ticket against the numbers selected.  It is everyone's ticket against the numbers selected.  All 10 million tickets could have the wrong combinations and be losers.  That is why there are drawings with no winners....in your scenario there would be a guaranteed winner every time.

[JoMal]

The lottory is just a tax for people who are very bad at math, not a tax on the stupid.  A true "tax on the stupid" is Kings and Timberwolves playoff tickets.

WOW, if that was not the stupidest thing you ever posted, which is saying quite a bit, it certainly makes the top three. While the Spurs provide some playoff intrique with their defense, the Lakers offer absolutely nothing to the entertainment of fans except a circus freakshow off the court.

Since they already have the clown uniforms down, it makes it easier to ignore the game and wait for the sprizter from Jackson in the postgame interview room.

[WayOutWest]

The lottory is just a tax for people who are very bad at math, not a tax on the stupid.  A true "tax on the stupid" is Kings and Timberwolves playoff tickets.

WOW, if that was not the stupidest thing you ever posted, which is saying quite a bit, it certainly makes the top three. While the Spurs provide some playoff intrique with their defense, the Lakers offer absolutely nothing to the entertainment of fans except a circus freakshow off the court.

Since they already have the clown uniforms down, it makes it easier to ignore the game and wait for the sprizter from Jackson in the postgame interview room.

 :rolleyes:  

[Ted]

Just about one year ago, I paid 124K for 4 bed 2 bath 2300 square foot brick house here in UT. It's on a 1/4 acre of land about a quarter of a mile from the base of the Wasatch Mountains. Hell, I even have water rights. Once every ten days I actually have an irrigation turn.
My payment is around 600, so naturally we throw in an extra couple hundred each month. I love it here in Sticksville.