Basketball Thoughts, WC

[Laker Fan]

Spurs 5 weeks ago...expecting Manu back, working Gooden in.  Duncan would get more rest.  They would have had a good shot...then Manu goes down.  And Duncan seems to be worsening by the day.

I'm starting to think the guys who wrote "Logan's Run" had "something"...... 

You're a jerk WOW, care to give me the "quote feature for dummies" breakdown? Or are you too happy you know something I don't to hook me up? My guess is the latter.

[WayOutWest]

I think this is what you were shooting for Dan:

The field this year, barring a meltdown of Dallas versus Miami proportions, is just fodder for the Purple and Gold, just sayin' what no one else seems to want to say.

Spurs 5 weeks ago...expecting Manu back, working Gooden in.  Duncan would get more rest.  They would have had a good shot...then Manu goes down.  And Duncan seems to be worsening by the day.

Spurs are still a good team , they're just too beat up to survive a 7 game series with LA let alone their likely opponent, Portland, they are in trouble, bad trouble.

Jazz with everyone starting to play. Sloan on the bench.  And the rough style...they would have a decent shot.  But just haven't jelled.  And are really struggling on the road.  If Sloan can get this team's head on straight they can be dangerous.

This is a dangerous team, they scare me the most, but as you point out, they will be the road team come playoff time and that has to worry Sloan.

Rockets...they have the defense to throw at Kobe/Odom with Battier/Artest.  But I don't think they are disciplined enough offensively.  But if a couple shooter heat up for a series...they could beat the Lakers.

LA OWNED houston in theregular season 0-4, withand without McGrady, NO, they can't beat the Lakers.

Blazers...I could see them put a scare into the Lakers.  McMillian isn't getting the COY talk he should be for leading this young team.  It is athletic and they are very disciplined offensively.  They have the bodies to bang inside with Oden & Pryzbilla.  But I think lack of playoff experience will cost them in a game 6 or 7.  If they can steal one of the first 2 and then hold home court for a 3-1 edge...  Let's just say game 6 in the Rose Garden should be fun.

A scare yes, beat them no, they can't beat LA, despite WOW's doom and gloom worries, for the reasons you cite no playoff experience, too young, McMillian doesn't deserve COY when Cleveland is playing out of their minds.

Nuggets IMO are smoke & mirrors.  Also I don't think Karl is an effective postseason coach.  Too many head cases...Melo, JR, Martin.  I wouldn't be surprised if they lost in the first round.

Touche' Lurker, paper tiger like I said, and in LA last night LA NEVER looked out of control of that game, even when they fell behind in the 3rd. This team is an illusion.

NO...need a lot more depth.  I don't think they will make the second round...unless they draw Denver.

They should draw Houston right? I too think they beat Denver but Houston will give them problems, actually anyone except maybe Dallas or SA and Denver can and should beat them.

Dallas...JoeV thinks their dangerous.  Best I could come up with.  And the whole Shaq/Cuban media farce has to be great for the team.

Boy, if ever Joe was wrong, it is right here, Dallas is the second worst team in the WC playoffs behind Denver, and I don't think they can beat them. There is nothing dangerous or intimidating about them, how's that Jason Kidd trade workin' for ya there, Cuban?

[JoMal]

You know, I can and do build enterprise level servers, I have NEVER bought an off the shelf PC, I can troubleshoot ANY hardware and even most software problems you can possibly think of, I can make any PC talk to any other PC, for several years I lived and breathed computers and computer networking;

BUT I CANNOT FIGURE OUT THE STINKING ROTTEN LOUSY QUOTE FEATURE ON THIS STUPID "SIMPLE" MACHINES FORUM PROGRAM!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

...^...
...< look up >

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

[WayOutWest]

Spurs 5 weeks ago...expecting Manu back, working Gooden in.  Duncan would get more rest.  They would have had a good shot...then Manu goes down.  And Duncan seems to be worsening by the day.

I'm starting to think the guys who wrote "Logan's Run" had "something"...... 

You're a jerk WOW, care to give me the "quote feature for dummies" breakdown? Or are you too happy you know something I don't to hook me up? My guess is the latter.

Dan,

Do you write any software?  If you do, the best way to explain it is that for every "For" you must have a "Next" to make the function work properly.

For every '[ quote author=Laker Fan link=topic=5517.msg60882#msg60882 date=1239382757 ]' you must have a '[ /quote ]' to close the loop.  They must be in pairs, if you have one too many it gets messed up or if you have one too less it gets messed up.

FYI: I put an extra space after the '[' so it wouldn't show up as an actual quote.

[ziggy]

Lakers  -  Obvious favorite.  BBR has them as a 50% probability to win the West, and I would take them over the field.  As far against Dallas, I think it could be a sweep, but Dallas could take it 6.  Dallas has a very good offense, and as a result they can get hot.  I really believe they can win at least 1 in Dallas, and if they get hot in one game in LA they could take it 6.

Nuggets  -  BBR has them as an 11.5% chance to win the West.  At this point they play the Jazz.  Denver wins in 5 or 6.  In my opinion the Jazz are down substantially this year.  I was very high on the Jazz last year, but this year I am unimpressed.  The Jazz have no greater home court advantage than the rest of the WC teams, and they are clearly worse on the road.  When evaluating the WC teams each of them are in the top 1/5 in either offensive efficiency or defensive efficiency (the Lakers are top 1/5 in both), except the Jazz and the Hornets.  Even Dallas is in top 1/5 in offensive efficiency.  The Jazz cannot rely on their offense to bail them out or their defense to bail them out.
Denver is 6th offensively and 8th defensively.  The two most important Nuggets are Billups and Nene.  Melo has definitely progressed as a player, and JR Smith can take over a game, but Billups is a winner, and Nene has finally stepped up and become a top flight big-man.  He is somewhat hidden, but his emergence is the key to their success this year.

Rockets  -  BBR has them as 10.1% chance to win the West.  They play NO right now.  NO has a minimal chance without a good healthy Tyson Chandler.  The only difference between Utah and NO is that Chris Paul is capable of taking over a series, and the Jazz have no one like that.  D Williams may be able to match up well against Paul, but he is not able to take over a series like Paul.

Blazers  -  BBR has them as a 14.2% chance to win the West.  They play the Spurs in round one, and BBR  gives them a 6.9% chance to win the West.  They have beat the Spurs 3 of 4.  They have struggled handling Parker, and SA 3 point shooters.  When the Spurs rebound well they win, but if not they struggle.  That is one of the keys to SA gaining the advantage in FG% differential.  Portland is the best or one of the best rebounding teams in the league.  They have averaged a +5 all season, +10 in wins, and -2 in losses.  

The Blazers are the #1 rated team in offensive efficiency, but #17 in defense.  
The Spurs are 14th in offense, and 5th in defense.
It comes down to if SA's defense can stop the Blazers offense, and how well they rebound.  
Blazers are #1 in offensive rebounds, and the Spurs are #1 in defensive rebounds.  
Blazers are #7 in defensive rebounds, and Spurs are 30th in offensive rebounds.
That is the key differential, and that is why I believe the Blazers will win in 6.

[WayOutWest]

Lakers...

You had me at "Lakers" ziggy. 

Looking at the playoff brackets the matchups I would find the most interesting seem to involve a lot of Blazers.

Blazers vs Lakers
Blazers vs Spurs
Blazers vs Jazz
Jazz vs Lakers
Spurs vs Rockets

Very entertaining to watch, everything else would be boring or very predictable.

[JoMal]

LA OWNED houston in theregular season 0-4, withand without McGrady, NO, they can't beat the Lakers.

Actually, this should scare the s**t out of Laker fans, if Houston ever gets into a series with Los Angeles. The regular series is a prelude. Houston is the one team that can eradicate the Laker pandemic from infecting the championship series once again with its tiresome presence.

The Spurs are going to let the Ginobili absence affect them too much, the Jazz are tough, but can be individually outplayed, Portland still a year or two away from playoff dominance, the Nuggets <> are they even IN the playoffs (?), and the Hornets have two terrific players and a bunch who like to watch them play. Dallas is also a team for wishful thinkers. They would have won by now if they had any realistic hope.

I also think that the Cleveland LeBrons are more likely to come out of the East then either the Majik or Keltics. They have THE player who can make a huge difference in a playoff series. The Keltics seem to have lost that desparate edge that led them from start to finish last year, and the Majik, which should be more dominant, just have lost too many games for no discernable reason. They are missing something, and for lack of a better word, it must be leadership.

[WayOutWest]

LA OWNED houston in theregular season 0-4, withand without McGrady, NO, they can't beat the Lakers.

First off, I didn't say that, that was Dan. 

They are missing something, and for lack of a better word, it must be leadership.

IMO they are missing a "closer".  The Cavs have one of the, if not THE, best closers in the game.  Miami has one, Lakers have one, and the Spurs HAD one.  P2, CP3 and Melo can be closers at times but not at the level of LeBron, Kobe, and DWade.

[Laker Fan]

LA OWNED houston in theregular season 0-4, withand without McGrady, NO, they can't beat the Lakers.

Actually, this should scare the s**t out of Laker fans, if Houston ever gets into a series with Los Angeles. The regular series is a prelude. Houston is the one team that can eradicate the Laker pandemic from infecting the championship series once again with its tiresome presence.

The Spurs are going to let the Ginobili absence affect them too much, the Jazz are tough, but can be individually outplayed, Portland still a year or two away from playoff dominance, the Nuggets <> are they even IN the playoffs (?), and the Hornets have two terrific players and a bunch who like to watch them play. Dallas is also a team for wishful thinkers. They would have won by now if they had any realistic hope.

I also think that the Cleveland LeBrons are more likely to come out of the East then either the Majik or Keltics. They have THE player who can make a huge difference in a playoff series. The Keltics seem to have lost that desparate edge that led them from start to finish last year, and the Majik, which should be more dominant, just have lost too many games for no discernable reason. They are missing something, and for lack of a better word, it must be leadership.

Hokey Smokes Bullwinkle! Do you care to explain older man than me, why you think Houston is or would be even a remote threat to LA's path to glory? Is it Battier's defense of Kobe? Artest's? Do you know Kobe shot well over 50% 3 of the 4 times they beat Houston this year? With those 2 shutdown defenders? Is it the scathing offensive firepower of Ming, who averaged less than 17 points in those 4 losses? McGrady's THREE points in his one and only appearance? Artest's scintillating shooting? What is it JoMal? The world wonders.

[rickortreat]

LA OWNED houston in theregular season 0-4, withand without McGrady, NO, they can't beat the Lakers.

Actually, this should scare the s**t out of Laker fans, if Houston ever gets into a series with Los Angeles. The regular series is a prelude. Houston is the one team that can eradicate the Laker pandemic from infecting the championship series once again with its tiresome presence.

The Spurs are going to let the Ginobili absence affect them too much, the Jazz are tough, but can be individually outplayed, Portland still a year or two away from playoff dominance, the Nuggets <> are they even IN the playoffs (?), and the Hornets have two terrific players and a bunch who like to watch them play. Dallas is also a team for wishful thinkers. They would have won by now if they had any realistic hope.

I also think that the Cleveland LeBrons are more likely to come out of the East then either the Majik or Keltics. They have THE player who can make a huge difference in a playoff series. The Keltics seem to have lost that desparate edge that led them from start to finish last year, and the Majik, which should be more dominant, just have lost too many games for no discernable reason. They are missing something, and for lack of a better word, it must be leadership.

The Magic are going to win 60+ this season. They're the team most are discounting, even though they've beaten everyone, including the elite teams.  IF they get to the finals, they're going to take it.

[Laker Fan]

The Magic are going to win 60+ this season. They're the team most are discounting, even though they've beaten everyone, including the elite teams.  IF they get to the finals, they're going to take it.

Once again, Rick displays his lack of understanding.

No one is discounting Orlando, indeed, they HAVE beaten the elite team, they split with Boston, took the season series with Cleveland, swept the Lakers, and not that this team matters one whit, they SWEPT the Sixers. The problem is they will likely face the Celtics, game over. IF they make it past Boston, they have a legit shot at the Final as I think they are more well rounded than Cleveland, but, despite the regular season sweep of LA. THEY WILL NOT BEAT LA IN THE FINALS!

Poor Rick, your Sixers are drawing the team that will humiliate the talentless east coast scrubs that hail from Philly, must drive you nuts, wait, you are already nuts. 

[WayOutWest]

The Magic are going to win 60+ this season. They're the team most are discounting, even though they've beaten everyone, including the elite teams.  IF they get to the finals, they're going to take it.

Will you put money on it if the Lakers come out of the WC?  I will. 

[Joe Vancil]

Well, first of all, mark me down as having DALLAS as the #7 seed, matching them up with Denver.

Denver looks to me to be the smoke-and-mirrors team that many of you seem to think it is.  I'm 100% in favor of giving George Karl Coach Of The Year honors.  You dump Marcus Camby for stale doughnuts, you trade Iverson, and you win the Northwest?  That's COY material.

That puts Utah against the Lakers in the first round.  That's not good news for the Jazz.  They stand a better chance of beating the Lakers in a later round;  in the early going, they're going to be whisked away rather easily.

San An isn't San An without Ginobilli.  Houston is still Houston, which means first round elimination is still a very legit possibility.  New Orleans isn't what they were last year, and while the Blazers are a year older, they're still awfully young.  Take whichever team you want against LA and Dallas - I like LA and Dallas better.

Dallas/LA is an oddball match-up.  Dallas has a mix-and-match kind of line-up that I really like.  Does anyone believe Kobe is going to be thrilled with continually dumping it into Bynum, just because he's got a match-up advantage on Dirk or Dampier?  Gasol, perhaps, but Bynum?  And Dallas has a ton of flexibility with Terry, Howard, Carrol, George, Green, and Wright across the 2/3.  And finally, the person who I feel could really impact the series is Brandon Bass.  He's solid.  This is make-or-break time for his career.

If LA goes big and Dallas goes little, I think Dallas has at least a chance.  Of course, if Dallas goes little and LA does too, which is what I think will happen, LA is going to mop the floor with them.

Let's face it;  if we were talking a Western Conference Team against any of the folks out East, I'd give the West a fair chance at winning.  But it's the rest of the West versus LA first;  LA is going to win that one, hand's down, this year.

Boston, Cleveland, Orlando - vs LA - and that's pretty much a toss-up, but I like LA's chances - especially so against Boston and Orlando.

[Reality]

Portland must really be afraid of the Lakers.

[rickortreat]

The Magic are going to win 60+ this season. They're the team most are discounting, even though they've beaten everyone, including the elite teams.  IF they get to the finals, they're going to take it.

Will you put money on it if the Lakers come out of the WC?  I will. 

Maybe lets see who meets up in the Finals.  No KG means Boston is in trouble. 

A note about the Sixers since for some of you, my pain is your pleasure. You can't whitewash a 4-game slide, even if it's accompanied by an injury.  There was only one game the Sixers were really in, defense was attrocious and the offense just wasn't there.  Hopes of a 4th or 5th seed are fading, meaning a first round with an elite team and a probable quick exit, even with Thad Young back.

I figure they would have done much better without the injuries to Brand and Young, enough for a 10 game swing or better from where they are. They also would be better if they played their rookie Speights more minutes, as he would put up a double-double with regular pt. The team is still not ready to play with the elite, they need a better coach, and a few more players to upgrade at certain spots.  They do have a solid young core, with Iguodala, Young, Williams and Speights with two solid vets in Miller and Brand, so they're not that far away.  All 4 of the young players are well above average and project to be top 10 or better at their positions. But no Center and weak guard defense and poor three-point shooting are serious weaknesses to overcome.

Just too bad, since a first round match-up against the Hawks would have gotten them to the 2nd round. There isn't a team in the league that can loose 2 of their best players and not have a drop-off.