Basketball Thoughts, WC

[Laker Fan]

My lucid, erudite thoughts on the WC, now that it's all over but the seeding.

Spurs: everyone quakes at the mere mention of this team, and before this season that was a valid response, their steady professionalism, solid core, and deft defensive fundamentals make them the biggest threat in any given year, until this one. SA has taken the season series against how many teams with winning records? 3, three, THREEEEE!!!!!!!!!!! And only 1, Utah, from the WC, and the best they can hope for is an even split with the Hornets. This team has added some new pieces, especially Mason and Gooden but the age of the core is taking its toll, and if losing Manu cooks their goose, well, 'nuff said. All told I said even at midseason this team still scares me, they worry me not at all now, they will face either Portland or NO first round and if the Hornets take care of business before the season is out, they will have lost the series 1-3 to both these teams, they are likely to not make it out of the first round.

Nuggets: Where'd these cats come from? Oh yeah, the Spurs fell on their faces. Really though, serious contenders have handled them quite nicely, they swept Dallas (big deal) and they had better hope they face Dallas instead of Utah first round or they are done. This is not to say Billups has not been a HUGE addition to this squad but Martin has dropped off and they are also one of those teams that has climbed to the top beating no one, and climbing over the backs of an injury riddled Spurs and Rockets team . If ever a team was a paper tiger, it is Denver.

Jazz: Confusing team, better I think than their record but man did Dallas whale on them last night! This is a deep team with lots of raw talent and if they hold serve and finish 7th, the only roadblock to the WCF is New Orleans, assuming new Orleans takes the Spurs and even an injured Spurs team is not done just yet. If Utah has a weakness it is they are locked into playing Boozer instead of Milsap, who is better at every aspect of the game, because he plays to win, Boozer plays for money. This is THE ONE TEAM THAT CAN UPSET LA. Personally, I would love to face them in the WCF and if they catch the Hornets second round, that could very well be the case, otherwise the Spurs seem to have Utah's number. The matchup I think will rock? Paul against Williams. I think Williams is better, bigger, stronger, more in control of his game, but Paul can flat play out of his mind, looking forward to that possible series.

Blazers: Once again a fun team to watch but too young and inexperienced, if they finish tied with Houston, they lose home court and hence the first round. IF they get out of the first round, LA is too much for them. But look out in the future, this team is gonna be good.

Rockets: Have a legit shot at making it out of the first round McGrady will be happy, oh wait, never mind. All they will do if they beat Portland is earn the right to get spanked by LA.

Hornets: Really fun team to watch, if they get past the Spurs, to whom they lost the season series, (but that was before Manu went down) Utah should give them all they can handle and more as Utah swept the season series against Paul and company and are too physical for them. They've played pretty well against playoff bound teams, and I'm interested in the impact Posey will have come playoff time. I don't discount them, just think they have the toughest road to the WCF, and it could be their undoing.

Mavericks: Terrible against playoff bound teams, and whether they face LA or Denver, it matters not, they are done first round, how sweet it is! Too bad for them they won't get to play Portland they might have had a chance.

Lakers: Terrible habit of playing down to the level of their competition which will always bite you, just glad we won't face the Bobcats in the playoffs. They have won or split every series against +.500 teams except Orlando, and possibly Charlotte, no other team can say that, in fact, those are the ONLY 2 teams that took the season from LA. Bynum is supposed to play tonight and while it may take a round or 2 to get him back in rhythm, those first 2 rounds pose not much challenge, unless Utah finishes 8th. LA's lack of defensive intensity will cost them some games but their ability to rally late in games, while infuriating because they too often put themselves in a position where the HAVE to rally late, is proof that they play well enough to win most of the time. The fact that they are probably the most well rested elite team coming into the postseason should serve them well and is a testament to the depth and talent overall of the squad. I want to face Boston in the Finals for the revenge factor and Cleveland I honestly think will be the easier opponent with Bynum back, but really either one will do, Orlando could give us matchup issues and they swept the series from us this year. Bottom line, if LA plays like they're capable of, NO ONE gets in our way on the way to the title.

[WayOutWest]

The fact that they are probably the most well rested elite team coming into the postseason should serve them well and is a testament to the depth and talent overall of the squad.

Where did you get that info Dan?  I know early in the season when the Lakers were winning games by the end of the 3rd quater the Lakers starters were getting a lot of rest but since mid-season the bench can't seem to hold a lead let alone expand one, and close a game.  I've heard over and over how Gasol needs rest since he's been playing a lot of minutes.  It seems Kobe has been in "cruise control" for a lot of games and sometimes he's not able to kick it into gear and close out games against the teams the Lakers should destroy.  I didn't think they were rested but it's good news if it's true.

[Laker Fan]

Only Gasol and Bryant average over 30 minutes per game and Phil is very good at giving them rest when they need it most, the end of and start of quarters. I agree the bench has been having trouble holding leads and that has been one of my chiefs complaints, but they Kobe and Pau don't just get little breaks, they get good long rests, especially late in the game, when they need it most. I suppose it is more my opinion than hard statistical fact, but they don't look tired when they play, just bored, I sure hope they turn up the energy in these last few games, they have a serious shot at home court in the Finals if they can win their last 4 and Cleveland loses just one. Gasol hasn't looked tired to me and Fisher is getting good rest.

I suppose I feel they have really coasted through big stretches of the season and while they aren't as sharp as I'd like right now, they are talented and deep enough that I don't think that will matter in the first round, but they sure better step it up after that.

[Lurker]

Hollinger's take on how it will play out...

Two days ago I looked at the West's top threats to battle the Lakers for the conference crown. In the 48 hours since, something very interesting has happened: The standings separated into three distinct groups.

At the top is L.A., obviously, plus Denver is now all but assured of the second seed. The Nuggets will clinch the Northwest Division with one more win, and given that they play Sacramento at home Friday, I think we can pretty much pencil them in for that. Clinching the No. 2 seed outright would require only one additional win (at L.A. or at Portland) or one loss by Houston. So let's presume the Nuggets are No. 2.

Behind them is where it gets interesting as we now have two blocks of three: an upper tier with Portland, Houston and San Antonio, each of which is 50-28; and a lower tier of New Orleans, Dallas and Utah, with only a game separating those three. Where those clubs finish in their three-team blocks has huge implications for the playoffs, obviously, particularly in the upper tier where one of the teams won't have home-court advantage in the first round.

That's where we get into the nitty-gritty, and we'll start with the upper tier. The Playoff Odds project all three teams to finish with 53 wins, making for a messy tiebreak situation.

For starters, we still don't have a clear winner in a tie between San Antonio and Houston. Both teams have six division losses and 16 conference losses, meaning that if each wins out from here, the tiebreak would be record against playoff teams in the conference -- which belongs to the Rockets right now (13-12 versus the Spurs' 10-13) and would continue to do so in any scenario where the teams tied in regular-season and division record.

So basically, if the two teams tie, it could come down to when the losses happen -- Houston still has two tough division games left, while the Spurs host New Orleans on the last day of the season. But as long as they stay tied in division losses, Houston will win the tiebreak by virtue of its record against conference playoff teams.

San Antonio will also lose the tiebreak to Portland based on head-to-head record, so that would push the Spurs down to the No. 5 seed if they don't win their division. But the Spurs will beat out Portland for the No. 3 seed if they're both tied and San Antonio wins the division -- a new rule put in this season automatically gives tiebreakers to division champions.

The Blazers, incidentally, lose home-court advantage to Houston if they both finish tied at No. 4 based on the Rockets' 2-1 series win (a rule that needs serious revision, by the way -- Houston got both wins on its home court and there wasn't a fourth game in Portland to even things out, so it seems horribly unfair to give the Rockets home-court based on this).

Given those parameters, the remaining schedules and the injuries facing San Antonio, the most likely outcome would appear to be Houston winning the division and going in as the No. 3 seed, Portland entering the playoffs at No. 4 and San Antonio limping as the fifth seed and visiting Portland to start the postseason.

We have a similar tangle to unravel at the bottom of the playoff picture, where Dallas has made a strong push to blast out of the No. 8 position and near-certain first-round elimination against the Lakers. The Mavs caught Utah at 47-31 on Wednesday night and are just a game behind No. 6 New Orleans, which they play twice this weekend.

The big problem for the Mavs right now is the tiebreaker situation. Dallas loses the tiebreak to Utah based on conference record and will lose it to New Orleans based on division record even if it sweeps both games this weekend (the Mavs lost their first two meetings, so they wouldn't prevail on head-to-head).

The schedule isn't doing them any favors either. Utah has a suddenly winnable game in San Antonio, and got a gift from the league with an Apr. 14 game at L.A.: There's a good chance Cleveland will have clinched the top overall seed by then and the Jazz will get to romp past the Lakers' scrubs; the Mavs are likely to get no such luck in their season-ender against Houston.

What it basically means, then, is that Dallas will be the No. 8 seed unless it wins both games against the Hornets this weekend. In the latter scenario, a move up to No. 6 is possible, though No. 7 still would seem more likely.

The Jazz also can pass the Hornets, who finish with a difficult four-game slate that includes the two Dallas games, a visit to San Antonio and a game at Houston. Utah owns the tiebreak by virtue of a 3-0 season sweep, and two of their final four games shape up as automatic W's (home against the Clippers and Golden State). If you're a glass-half-full guy, however, the Hornets still retain a sliver of a chance of winning the division if they can win all four games.

The Playoff Odds still see New Orleans hanging on to No. 6 by a game over Utah, but they don't know there's a good chance the Lakers punt that final game, or that the Jazz's visit to reeling San Antonio is much more winnable now than it looked a few days ago.

So I'll maintain that the most likely scenario remains Utah at No. 6, New Orleans at No. 7 and Dallas at No. 8 -- with the latter two swapping spots if the Mavs pull off the unlikely weekend sweep.

If it plays out that way, we'll get Lakers-Mavs, Nuggets-Hornets, Rockets-Jazz and Blazers-Spurs in the first round. Of course, the standings in the West shift rapidly given how tightly packed the teams are, so I expect a few more course corrections between now and Wednesday.


John Hollinger writes for ESPN Insider. To e-mail him, click here.

[Laker Fan]

Hollinger's take on how it will play out...

If it plays out that way, we'll get Lakers-Mavs, Nuggets-Hornets, Rockets-Jazz and Blazers-Spurs in the first round. Of course, the standings in the West shift rapidly given how tightly packed the teams are, so I expect a few more course corrections between now and Wednesday.

John Hollinger writes for ESPN Insider. To e-mail him, click here.

If it does play that way, the Hornets/Nuggets should be interesting, but I think the Hornets take that series. Jazz will spank Houston and the Spurs have a good shot at coming out of the first round if they face Portland. Dallas is done regardless I think. I must admit, the math and scenario's for seedings confuse me a little so that is why I gave my all else being equal scenarios.

I don't think Utah will get a gimme on the 14th, especially if Cleveland loses this weekend, if that happens LA has too much to play for, in which case Utah will destroy Denver. if they finish 7th, to me it what they should hope for, it is in their best interest to avoid LA in the first round. But even at 6th seed, Utah should have no problem with Houston or Portland, SA may be a a different story. There, did I get those possible scenarios correct or am I worse at this than I thought?

[ziggy]

I think the big question in the west is do you take the Lakers, or the field to go to the finals?

[Laker Fan]

The field this year, barring a meltdown of Dallas versus Miami proportions, is just fodder for the Purple and Gold, just sayin' what no one else seems to want to say.

[Lurker]

The field this year, barring a meltdown of Dallas versus Miami proportions, is just fodder for the Purple and Gold, just sayin' what no one else seems to want to say.

At this point I would agree.



Spurs 5 weeks ago...expecting Manu back, working Gooden in.  Duncan would get more rest.  They would have had a good shot...then Manu goes down.  And Duncan seems to be worsening by the day.

Jazz with everyone starting to play. Sloan on the bench.  And the rough style...they would have a decent shot.  But just haven't jelled.  And are really struggling on the road.  If Sloan can get this team's head on straight they can be dangerous.

Rockets...they have the defense to throw at Kobe/Odom with Battier/Artest.  But I don't think they are disciplined enough offensively.  But if a couple shooter heat up for a series...they could beat the Lakers.

Blazers...I could see them put a scare into the Lakers.  McMillian isn't getting the COY talk he should be for leading this young team.  It is athletic and they are very disciplined offensively.  They have the bodies to bang inside with Oden & Pryzbilla.  But I think lack of playoff experience will cost them in a game 6 or 7.  If they can steal one of the first 2 and then hold home court for a 3-1 edge...  Let's just say game 6 in the Rose Garden should be fun.

Nuggets IMO are smoke & mirrors.  Also I don't think Karl is an effective postseason coach.  Too many head cases...Melo, JR, Martin.  I wouldn't be surprised if they lost in the first round.

NO...need a lot more depth.  I don't think they will make the second round...unless they draw Denver.

Dallas...JoeV thinks their dangerous.  Best I could come up with.  And the whole Shaq/Cuban media farce has to be great for the team.

[westkoast]

I think Dallas looks dangerous at the moment  but when the pressure is on I don't expect them to continue to look that way.  They still have on answer in the post for Gasol or Bynum, Tim Duncan, Yao Ming, or even a Greg Oden.

Jazz/Blazers to me are the deadly sleepers who seem to have been ignored or pushed to the side.  Seems as if people want to focus in on the Lakers, Nuggets (due to them being hot up until last night), and Dallas for the same reason as Denver.  The Jazz have all the pieces (though lacking in the middle a bit against some of the big men) and are a well disciplined team.  The Blazers have the players to cause matchup problems for a number of the WC teams.

Nuggets...Don't see them doing much.  Even with Chancey Billups there they just don't have the defense to give anyone fits.  I think they go down to whomever they match up with, honestly.

Houston has the defense.  That alone will keep them in a series and should help them get out of the first round. Uutside of Yao Ming who is a real threat on the offensive end in the playoffs?  If they are depending on Von Wafer and Artest to carry the load T-Mac normally does they are in for a rude awakening.  Not that Artest or Wafer are poor offensive players they are just not ones who you have faith in to dominate a series on the offensive end.

SA...as a sometime Spurs fan it sucks to see that Manu is gone.  Sorry REALSPURS but with out Manu it's tough for them to get by the top talent in the West.  You can get away with doubling Duncan and letting Parker go off with no Manu to run wild if you do that.  For all the injuries this season to have them win 50 games is very impressive.  I don't care what anyone really says. 

Lakers?  Been beaten to death by fellow posters and the media.  I have nothing to really add here.

[Laker Fan]

The field this year, barring a meltdown of Dallas versus Miami proportions, is just fodder for the Purple and Gold, just sayin' what no one else seems to want to say.

Spurs 5 weeks ago...expecting Manu back, working Gooden in.  Duncan would get more rest.  They would have had a good shot...then Manu goes down.  And Duncan seems to be worsening by the day.

Spurs are still a good team , they're just too beat up to survive a 7 game series with LA let alone their likely opponent, Portland, they are in trouble, bad trouble.


Jazz with everyone starting to play. Sloan on the bench.  And the rough style...they would have a decent shot.  But just haven't jelled.  And are really struggling on the road.  If Sloan can get this team's head on straight they can be dangerous.


This is a dangerous team, they scare me the most, but as you point out, they will be the road team come playoff time and that has to worry Sloan.


Rockets...they have the defense to throw at Kobe/Odom with Battier/Artest.  But I don't think they are disciplined enough offensively.  But if a couple shooter heat up for a series...they could beat the Lakers.


LA OWNED houston in theregular season 0-4, withand without McGrady, NO, they can't beat the Lakers.


Blazers...I could see them put a scare into the Lakers.  McMillian isn't getting the COY talk he should be for leading this young team.  It is athletic and they are very disciplined offensively.  They have the bodies to bang inside with Oden & Pryzbilla.  But I think lack of playoff experience will cost them in a game 6 or 7.  If they can steal one of the first 2 and then hold home court for a 3-1 edge...  Let's just say game 6 in the Rose Garden should be fun.


A scare yes, beat them no, they can't beat LA, despite WOW's doom and gloom worries, for the reasons you cite no playoff experience, too young, McMillian doesn't deserve COY when Cleveland is playing out of their minds.

Nuggets IMO are smoke & mirrors.  Also I don't think Karl is an effective postseason coach.  Too many head cases...Melo, JR, Martin.  I wouldn't be surprised if they lost in the first round.


Touche' Lurker, paper tiger like I said, and in LA last night LA NEVER looked out of control of that game, even when they fell behind in the 3rd. This team is an illusion.


NO...need a lot more depth.  I don't think they will make the second round...unless they draw Denver.


They should draw Houston right? I too think they beat Denver but Houston will give them problems, actually anyone except maybe Dallas or SA and Denver can and should beat them.

Dallas...JoeV thinks their dangerous.  Best I could come up with.  And the whole Shaq/Cuban media farce has to be great for the team.


Boy, if ever Joe was wrong, it is right here, Dallas is the second worst team in the WC playoffs behind Denver, and I don't think they can beat them. There is nothing dangerous or intimidating about them, how's that Jason Kidd trade workin' for ya there, Cuban?

[Laker Fan]

You know, I can and do build enterprise level servers, I have NEVER bought an off the shelf PC, I can troubleshoot ANY hardware and even most software problems you can possibly think of, I can make any PC talk to any other PC, for several years I lived and breathed computers and computer networking;

BUT I CANNOT FIGURE OUT THE STINKING ROTTEN LOUSY QUOTE FEATURE ON THIS STUPID "SIMPLE" MACHINES FORUM PROGRAM!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[jn]

You know, I can and do build enterprise level servers, I have NEVER bought an off the shelf PC, I can troubleshoot ANY hardware and even most software problems you can possibly think of, I can make any PC talk to any other PC, for several years I lived and breathed computers and computer networking;

BUT I CANNOT FIGURE OUT THE STINKING ROTTEN LOUSY QUOTE FEATURE ON THIS STUPID "SIMPLE" MACHINES FORUM PROGRAM!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

[Skandery]

The field this year, barring a meltdown of Dallas versus Miami proportions, is just fodder for the Purple and Gold, just sayin' what no one else seems to want to say.

Excuse Moi, Laker Fan. 
I believe I stated this exact sentiment about 15 months ago.  And unless I declare otherwise, this will continue to be my sentiment for the next 4 years.  Thank you Memphis.


In all seriousness, I don't see how the Lakers lose this year, period.  Still, one never gives up ALL hope:

GO UTAH!!!!!   

[WayOutWest]

Spurs 5 weeks ago...expecting Manu back, working Gooden in.  Duncan would get more rest.  They would have had a good shot...then Manu goes down.  And Duncan seems to be worsening by the day.

Spurs are still a good team , they're just too beat up to survive a 7 game series with LA let alone their likely opponent, Portland, they are in trouble, bad trouble.

Jazz with everyone starting to play. Sloan on the bench.  And the rough style...they would have a decent shot.  But just haven't jelled.  And are really struggling on the road.  If Sloan can get this team's head on straight they can be dangerous.

This is a dangerous team, they scare me the most, but as you point out, they will be the road team come playoff time and that has to worry Sloan.

Rockets...they have the defense to throw at Kobe/Odom with Battier/Artest.  But I don't think they are disciplined enough offensively.  But if a couple shooter heat up for a series...they could beat the Lakers.

LA OWNED houston in theregular season 0-4, withand without McGrady, NO, they can't beat the Lakers.

Blazers...I could see them put a scare into the Lakers.  McMillian isn't getting the COY talk he should be for leading this young team.  It is athletic and they are very disciplined offensively.  They have the bodies to bang inside with Oden & Pryzbilla.  But I think lack of playoff experience will cost them in a game 6 or 7.  If they can steal one of the first 2 and then hold home court for a 3-1 edge...  Let's just say game 6 in the Rose Garden should be fun.

A scare yes, beat them no, they can't beat LA, despite WOW's doom and gloom worries, for the reasons you cite no playoff experience, too young, McMillian doesn't deserve COY when Cleveland is playing out of their minds.

Nuggets IMO are smoke & mirrors.  Also I don't think Karl is an effective postseason coach.  Too many head cases...Melo, JR, Martin.  I wouldn't be surprised if they lost in the first round.

Touche' Lurker, paper tiger like I said, and in LA last night LA NEVER looked out of control of that game, even when they fell behind in the 3rd. This team is an illusion.

NO...need a lot more depth.  I don't think they will make the second round...unless they draw Denver.

They should draw Houston right? I too think they beat Denver but Houston will give them problems, actually anyone except maybe Dallas or SA and Denver can and should beat them.

Dallas...JoeV thinks their dangerous.  Best I could come up with.  And the whole Shaq/Cuban media farce has to be great for the team.

Boy, if ever Joe was wrong, it is right here, Dallas is the second worst team in the WC playoffs behind Denver, and I don't think they can beat them. There is nothing dangerous or intimidating about them, how's that Jason Kidd trade workin' for ya there, Cuban?

I'm starting to think the guys who wrote "Logan's Run" had "something"...... 

[Laker Fan]

The field this year, barring a meltdown of Dallas versus Miami proportions, is just fodder for the Purple and Gold, just sayin' what no one else seems to want to say.

Excuse Moi, Laker Fan. 
I believe I stated this exact sentiment about 15 months ago.  And unless I declare otherwise, this will continue to be my sentiment for the next 4 years.  Thank you Memphis.


In all seriousness, I don't see how the Lakers lose this year, period.  Still, one never gives up ALL hope:

GO UTAH!!!!!   

Well at least you can take solace in the fact that I, for one, consider Utah our biggest threat in the WC. As for 15 month ago, I am the type of fan who thinks we should win it every year, I'm sick and delusional that way.