Kobe OWNS LeBron and....

[WayOutWest]

Who is the 2nd best player in the NBA?  LeBron or DWade?

Warriors arena was chanting:

M V P!
M V P!
M V P!
M V P!
M V P!
M V P!

[ziggy]

Good article from Wages of Wins Journal

http://dberri.wordpress.com/


King James and Kobe
February 15, 2009 ? 48 Comments

Bill Simmons - the latest issue of ESPN the Magazine - examines the evidence that he is a Kobe-hater  http://sports.espn.go.com/espnmag/story?id=3896242.  Simmons provides various definitions of a "Kobe-hater" and explains why none apply to him personally.  Although his list of definitions is quite good, I think he missed the one definition that summarizes the term.  To the legions who are unabashed Kobe-lovers, a "Kobe-hater" is anyone who does not acknowledge that Kobe is the greatest player in the game today, the greatest to have ever played the game, and the greatest who will ever play the game on this planet, in this universe, and in any undiscovered dimensions where basketball can be played.

Anyone who has ever violated this view of Kobe - as I have done in the past http://dberri.wordpress.com/2007/10/18/kobe-myths/- quickly feels the wrath of the Kobe-lovers.  In fact, despite the protests of Simmons, I am sure the argument he makes in his column denying his status as a ?Kobe-hater? has elicited such a response.

Simmons on Kobe, LeBron, and the Knicks

In the column Simmons examines the games played recently by Kobe and LeBron James against the Knicks.

Here are some numbers from the two games:

Kobe Bryant: 61 points, 0 rebounds, 3 assists

LeBron James: 52 points, 9 rebounds, 11 assists,

Simmons looked at these numbers and had the following reaction:

Kobe's 61-point game represented the best and worst of basketball to me. His shotmaking was transcendent: a steady onslaught of jumpers, spin moves and fallaways made in his typically icy style, as efficient an outburst as you?ll ever see. On the other hand, his teammates stood around and watched him like movie extras. In 37 minutes, Kobe took 31 shots and another 20 free throws. He finished with three assists and no boards. He may as well have been playing by himself on one of those Pop-A-Shot machines.

Really, it was the defining Kobe game. He elicited every reaction possible from lovers, haters and everyone in between. When LeBron arrived in New York two days later and notched his amazing 52/9/11, he didn't break Kobe's new record but definitely cheapened it. LeBron's 52 came in the flow of the offense. When the Knicks doubled him, he found the open man. When they singled him, he scored. He dominated every facet of the game. It was a complete performance, basketball at its finest, everything we ever wanted from King James. And it happened 48 hours after Kobe's big game in the same building. Crazy.

I've been comparing those two games ever since. Never has basketball seemed more simple to me: I would rather watch a 52/9/11 than a 61/0/3. I would. It's really that simple. It's a matter of preference. So don?t call me a Kobe hater, call me a basketball lover.
And if Kobe ever put up a 52/9/11, yes, I would love him, too.

Here is my first reaction when I read this column: "Here is a column I agree with by Bill Simmons" (see Speeding Up Time for Bill Simmons http://dberri.wordpress.com/2007/05/15/speeding-up-time-for-bill-simmons/

and I Like Bill Simmons, Really I Do for two examples of disagreements). http://dberri.wordpress.com/2006/06/23/i-like-bill-simmons-really-i-do/

 

The basic message of The Wages of Wins - at least with respect to the evaluation of NBA players - is that there is more to player performance than scoring.  Following this lesson, one would expect that a well-rounded game that results in 52 points is worth more than 61 points without much else.

Comparing Kobe and LeBron

Of course, another lesson from The Wages of Wins is that expectations don?t always match the numbers.  To see this point, consider the simple Win Score model:

Win Score = PTS + REB + STL + 1/2*BLK + 1/2*AST - FGA - 1/2*FTA - TO - 1/2*PF

With this model in hand, let?s look at what Kobe and LeBron did against the Knicks.

Kobe's Win Score = 61 + 0 + 0 + 0.5 + 1.5 - 31 - 10 - 2 - 0.5 = 19.5

LeBron's Win Score = 52 + 9 + 0 + 1 + 5.5 - 33 - 9.5 - 3 - 0.5 = 21.5

Okay, it looks like Simmons was right.  LeBron did a bit more than Kobe.  But Kobe-lovers would note (at least they should note), that Kobe only played 37 minutes.  LeBron was on the court for 44 minutes.  When we consider Win Score per 48 minutes, Kobe appears to be the more effective player ( and that?s true before we consider position played).

Kobe's Win Score per 48 minutes = [19.5 / 37] * 48 = 25.3

LeBron's Win Score per 48 minutes = [21.5 / 44] * 48 = 23.5

So on a per-minute basis, Kobe's less diverse game trumps the all-around effort of LeBron.  How is this possible?

It's thought that the Wages of Wins basketball measures are all about rebounds.  This comparison between Kobe and LeBron, though, suggests otherwise.  The one factor that has the largest impact on Win Produced per 48 minutes [WP48] - the more complex Wages of Wins measure - is shooting efficiency.  And when we look at shooting efficiency, Kobe was amazing against the Knicks.  His adjusted field goal percentage was 66.1%.  So although Kobe was below average with respect to rebounds, steals, and assists, Kobe's amazing shooting efficiency resulted in an overall game that defied the expectations of Bill Simmons (and myself).

Now before the Kobe-lovers get too excited, I thought I would extend the comparison between Kobe and LeBron beyond one game.  And as Table One indicates, when we look past what these players recently did against the Knicks it becomes fairly clear that LeBron is the more productive player (sorry Kobe-lovers).

Table One: Comparing LeBron and Kobe
http://www.wagesofwins.com/KobeLeBronFeb09.html

Both players are above average with respect to almost every statistic.  King James, though, does more.  In fact, LeBron has done more across the past four seasons than Kobe has done in his four best seasons.  And the difference is even bigger if we look at what each player has done in 2008-09.

Turning to Wins Produced we see the same story.  Across the past four seasons, LeBron has produced 79.8 wins and posted a 0.295 WP48.  As noted, LeBron is even better this season.  At the All-Star break his WP48 stands at 0.406.

Again, Kobe is quite good.  But even his best seasons don?t come close to LeBron.  In Kobe's four best seasons he produced 63.7 wins with a 0.250 WP48.  Again, these are excellent marks.  But Kobe has never surpassed the 0.300 mark and he certainly has never been close to what LeBron is doing this year.  And what Kobe did against the Knicks, or the 2009 All-Star game, doesn't change this story.

[Lurker]

Kobe-HATER!


 

[westkoast]

Bill Simmons is a Kobe hater.  I can't believe he is going on and on with this charade. 

Cool article though Ziggy.

Here is another stat:

76% of players polled in the NBA said they would choose Kobe to take the last shot.  The next closest person (who went unnamed) got less than 10% of the vote.

[ziggy]

Here is another stat:

76% of players polled in the NBA said they would choose Kobe to take the last shot.  The next closest person (who went unnamed) got less than 10% of the vote.

Game Winning Shots

http://www.82games.com/gamewinningshots.htm

Ah yes, when it comes to requests for updated stats on features we've done in the past, nothing comes close to the clamor for another look at "game winning shots" in the NBA. The last time we investigated this was way back on 4/13/2006 as part of the Random Stat collection, and Carmelo Anthony came out on top for the most shots made by the definition we used (see below) as well as doing it with a wonderful .647 field goal percentage. That is a long time ago though, so let's see what the current word is!

First off there's really one main issue -- what exactly do we want to define as a game winning shot? If we make it too restrictive, as in a real last second shot at the buzzer, then you are dealing with tiny, tiny sample sizes. So instead, we proposed the following filter:

Game Winning Shot Opportunity = 24 seconds or less left in the game, team with the ball is either tied or down by 1 to 2 points.

Why use this definition?

   1. With 24 seconds or less, then it truly is a "last possession" situation potentially
   2. With a margin from tied to down 2, the team can take the lead with a made basket (including 3's)
   3. By excluding a down 3 situation, we don't have the "gimme two point buckets" that defenses will sometimes yield to the quick bucket/intentional foul strategy option you often see exercised.

Obviously though this definition means a shot may not actually be a game winner -- it may only tie a game (if down two points) or it may allow enough time for the opponents to get a game winning shot of their own. Still it seems a reasonable compromise.

Data sample
Regular Seasons: '03-04, '04-05, '05-06, '06-07, '07-08, '08-09 (thru 2/4)
Playoffs: '03-04, '04-05, '05-06, '06-07, '07-08

So we're looking at five full regular and playoff seasons, with additionally the current 08-09 season so far.


Leading "Game Winning Shot" Players                     
Player   Fgm   Fga   Fg%   Ftm   Fta   Ast   T/O
 League Wide   853    2858    0.298   610    815    352    296 
 LeBron James   17    50    0.34   14    20    6    4 
 Vince Carter   16    51    0.314   10    11    3    4 
 Ray Allen   15    39    0.385   4    6    1    2 
 Kobe Bryant   14    56    0.25   12    15    1    5 
 Carmelo Anthony   13    27    0.481   7    11    1    4 
 Allen Iverson   13    33    0.394   6    8    1    2 
 Ben Gordon   12    34    0.353   6    6    1    4 
 Dirk Nowitzki   12    37    0.324   13    18    1    3 
 Joe Johnson   12    45    0.267   2    3    4    2 
 Paul Pierce   11    32    0.344   15    17    9    3 
 Dwyane Wade   11    40    0.275   13    17    3    2 
 Jamal Crawford   11    43    0.256   4    6    3    3 
 Rashard Lewis   10    26    0.385   10    13    0    1 
 Ricky Davis   10    28    0.357   11    11    2    1 
 Antawn Jamison   9    16    0.563   2    5    0    1 
 Pau Gasol   9    18    0.5   4    6    1    4 
 Steve Francis   9    22    0.409   4    5    2    2 
 Tim Duncan   9    23    0.391   6    7    3    1 
 Gilbert Arenas   9    28    0.321   18    18    0    4 
 Michael Redd   9    30    0.3   8    14    0    1 
 Tracy McGrady   9    32    0.281   8    8    3    1 
 Kevin Garnett   9    33    0.273   3    3    1    0 
 Hedo Turkoglu   8    16    0.5   2    3    3    3 
 Derek Fisher   8    20    0.4   2    2    2    1 
 Chris Paul   8    21    0.381   3    4    5    1 
 Mike Bibby   8    22    0.364   2    2    6    1 
 Richard Hamilton   8    22    0.364   4    4    3    3 
 Andre Iguodala   8    22    0.364   10    11    2    3 
 Jason Terry   8    26    0.308   2    3    5    1 
 Mehmet Okur   7    15    0.467   4    4    1    0 
 Zach Randolph   7    17    0.412   6    8    0    0 
 Brandon Roy   7    19    0.368   3    4    3    1 
 Baron Davis   7    22    0.318   4    4    4    2 
 Raymond Felton   7    24    0.292   4    5    2    1 
 Travis Outlaw   6    7    0.857   3    5    0    0 
 Carlos Boozer   6    9    0.667   1    1    0    1 
 Jalen Rose   6    10    0.6   4    5    0    4 
 Josh Smith   6    11    0.545   3    3    0    2 
 Grant Hill   6    12    0.5   0    0    0    0 
 Damon Jones   6    12    0.5   1    1    1    0 
 Caron Butler   6    13    0.462   6    7    1    1 
 Damon Stoudamire   6    13    0.462   0    0    4    1 
 Kevin Martin   6    14    0.429   2    3    0    0 
 David West   6    15    0.4   2    2    0    1 
 Tyronn Lue   6    16    0.375   4    6    0    0 
 Shawn Marion   6    16    0.375   2    2    1    0 
 Tony Parker   6    16    0.375   0    0    4    0 
 Tayshaun Prince   6    17    0.353   2    2    5    1 
 Deron Williams   6    17    0.353   3    3    5    1 
 Yao Ming   6    18    0.333   9    10    0    1 
 Richard Jefferson   6    19    0.316   3    4    2    1 
 Chris Webber   6    19    0.316   0    0    1    1 
 Manu Ginobili   6    21    0.286   4    7    3    4 
 Chauncey Billups   6    37    0.162   18    19    6    2 
 Eddy Curry   5    7    0.714   2    2    0    0 
 Peja Stojakovic   5    8    0.625   1    1    1    0 
 Kevin Durant   5    14    0.357   1    1    1    0 
 Rudy Gay   5    14    0.357   3    4    0    1 
 Danny Granger   5    14    0.357   0    0    0    0 
 Mike James   5    15    0.333   3    7    2    0 
 Ron Artest   5    16    0.313   1    1    2    3 
 Stephen Jackson   5    20    0.25   1    1    4    2 
 Rasheed Wallace   5    30    0.167   2    2    0    2 
 Ronald Murray   4    4    1.00%   5    6    0    1 
 David Lee   4    5    0.8   0    0    0    0 
 Andrew Bogut   4    6    0.667   0    0    2    1 
 P.J. Brown   4    7    0.571   0    0    0    0 
 Udonis Haslem   4    8    0.5   0    0    0    1 
 James Posey   4    8    0.5   1    1    1    1 
 Michael Finley   4    9    0.444   2    2    4    1 
 Devin Harris   4    10    0.4   0    0    1    0 
 Larry Hughes   4    10    0.4   4    4    3    4 
 Eddie Jones   4    11    0.364   0    1    2    0 
 T.J. Ford   4    15    0.267   1    3    3    2 
 Mike Miller   4    20    0.2   0    2    2    2 
 Jermaine O'Neal   4    22    0.182   4    4    1    0 
   

The first thing to note is that these types of shots are very difficult on a league wide basis: a .298 Field Goal percentage doesn't exactly inspire confidence!

Part of this is that game winning chances may come with just a couple of seconds or less remaining in the game from the inbounds. So manufacturing any shot at all in some cases is to the player's credit. In some cases it can even be a half court heave!

LeBron James was just 4-19 in our previous look at game winning shots, so in the ensuing two and a half seasons, he has come up with a very respectable 13-31 (.419) record and just the other day had a pure game winner at the buzzer to top the Warriors. In addition he has six assists and a healthy number of free throws earned.

Vince Carter doesn't get a lot of love from fans for the most part but is actually #2 in the standings for most game winners over this period.

Ray Allen is in third overall but also leads in most 3's made under our game winning defined situation specifics, with eight three pointers. Long live the NBA's arguably best pure shooter (Ray also currently leads the NBA in Midrange 2pt FG%).

...and then we get to Kobe Bryant. Kobe fans don't like to hear it, but while their man is #4 in the league in total game winners hit, he holds the top spot in a less glamorous category: most game winning opportunity missed shots!

Now we're not Kobe haters by any means and I will readily give him his due as one of the best NBA players (note however, I didn't say the best) but he certainly has an overblown reputation when it comes to the clutch shot: people remember the ones he hits, but not the ones he misses, and heck you think a 56 FGA to 1 assist ratio might be part of the problem? He does have a better record in the playoffs though, which we'll get to down below.

Carmelo Anthony has slipped from the former top spot, but still a worthy challenger with the best fg% of any player with at least 10 makes.

Beyond that, you see a lot of familiar names, most with low success rates, and a lot of players with very low assists.

Paul Pierce is an exception as he stands at the head of the class for 'game winning assists' with nine, ahead of Nash, Kidd, Billups, and the rest.

Oy! you say, what about the up and comers who may not have been playing all that long? Obviously Chris Paul (8-21), Igoudala (8-22), and Bradon Roy (7-19) are climbing the charts rapidly. Let's do a quick tab of the season by season leaders (fgm-fga):

'03-04
Stoudamire 5-9
J.Rose 4-4
Yao 4-7
Carter 4-11
R.Allen 3-5
Z.Randolph 3-5
Redd 3-8

'04-05
Iverson 5-7
Francis 5-8
P.J. Brown (!) 4-6
B.Gordon 4-7
Da.Jones 4-7
Pierce 4-9
Wade 4-11

'05-06
Carmelo 7-10
Gasol 6-9
R.Allen 5-11
J.Johnson 5-16
Fisher 4-6
Crawford 4-8
Webber 4-9

'06-07
R.Lewis 5-7
B.Gordon 5-14
R.Davis 4-8
Carter 4-9
Paul 4-9

'07-08
LeBron 6-14
T.Outlaw 5-5
Ginobili 3-4
R.Allen 3-7

'08-09
Granger 5-7
Roy 4-7
R.Mason 3-3
Durant 3-8
Felton 3-8


Now let's turn back to giving Kobe fans the ammunition they need to continue telling us how Mr. Bryant is the most uber-clutch guy in the NBA...with a look at Playoff Game Winning Shots


Leading "Game Winning Shot" Players: PLAYOFFS                     
                     
Player           Fgm   Fga   Fg%   Ftm   Fta   Ast   T/O
 NBA                   5    159    0.283   28    37    17    19 
 Kobe Bryant   4    8    0.5   0    0    0    0 
 LeBron James   4    8    0.5   0    1    1    0 
 Dirk Nowitzki   3    6    0.5   6    8    1    1 
 Dwyane Wade   2    2    1   2    2    1    0 
 Caron Butler   2    3    0.667   0    0    0    0 
 Gilbert Arenas   2    5    0.4   3    3    0    0 
 Tim Duncan   2    6    0.333   0    0    1    0 
 Manu Ginobili   2    6    0.333   1    2    2    1 
 Chauncey Billups   2    9    0.222   2    2    0    0 


   
So now you have select company with only eight players, all of them all stars, with at least two makes. And yes, Kobe Bryant is indeed tied for first and with an excellent .500 percentage as well.

The truth seems to be that while we want to believe in the infallible hero who comes through every time, in the NBA even the brightest of the bunch are lucky to come through one out of three times.

Ultimately though while this kind of thing is fun, it's not to my mind particularly meaningful, other than indicating that the league as a whole could probably get more efficient in "end game" possessions...one easy place to start might be to try and be less predictable! It's nice to have a go-to guy, but when the other team knows without much doubt that a certain guy is getting the ball, it is going to be a lot easier to defend!

Jordan won a lot of championships, and personally hit a lot of clutch shots, but there were also games where classic second/third option guys like Paxson and Kerr were the ones benefiting from his greatness by getting open looks and delivering...

So instead of "does my team have a great clutch go-to guy" you might want to ask do we have a plan B?

For better quality analysis of clutch play, I prefer a filter of "last five minutes of fourth quarter/overtime, with neither team ahead by more than five points." Each player has a page for the stats accrued under these circumstances, and we also have sortable tables, eg see
    - '07-08 Clutch Player Leaders
    - '08-09 Clutch Player Leaders

[WayOutWest]

...a "Kobe-hater" is anyone who does not acknowledge that Kobe is the greatest player in the game today, the greatest to have ever played the game, and the greatest who will ever play the game on this planet, in this universe, and in any undiscovered dimensions where basketball can be played.

The irony is that is EXACTLY the type of comment I would expect from a "hater".  Haters like to talk in absolutes, whoever wrote that comment is a hater in my book.

[Joe Vancil]

I thought that made him a Sith.

That line in Star Wars was dumb then, and it's dumb now.  No one - NO ONE - believes OR WANTS TO BELIEVE that everything is in constant flux.  I'll be glad to hire anyone who wants their life in a constant state of uncertainty.  The first thing that will be uncertain is their paycheck.  The second will be their workload.

[WayOutWest]

I thought that made him a Sith.

That line in Star Wars was dumb then, and it's dumb now.  No one - NO ONE - believes OR WANTS TO BELIEVE that everything is in constant flux.  I'll be glad to hire anyone who wants their life in a constant state of uncertainty.  The first thing that will be uncertain is their paycheck.  The second will be their workload.

Reality, can you translate what Joe is trying to say here?

[Joe Vancil]

"Only the Sith speak in absolutes...."

[Ted]

I thought that made him a Sith.

That line in Star Wars was dumb then, and it's dumb now.  No one - NO ONE - believes OR WANTS TO BELIEVE that everything is in constant flux.  I'll be glad to hire anyone who wants their life in a constant state of uncertainty.  The first thing that will be uncertain is their paycheck.  The second will be their workload.

Translation: "WoW is a big, fat doodoo head."

[WayOutWest]

"Only the Sith speak in absolutes...."

No shyte Sherlock, going from one extreem to another is a chick move.  "Absolutes" to "CONSTANT state of uncertainty" is a either a chick reaction or a brilliant bit of ironic humor.  I can't say which and it clearly went over Ted's head.

[Joe Vancil]

Actually, I'm saying that it is completely reasonable - even NECESSARY - to speak in absolutes on a very frequent basis.  The Star Wars Jedi philosophy as stated by that particular line makes me think that the Jedi are completely clueless.

Absolutes prevent us from waffling on things - hold us accountable to what we say and what we do.  Without that, debate and discussion are nearly meaningless.

[westkoast]

Actually, I'm saying that it is completely reasonable - even NECESSARY - to speak in absolutes on a very frequent basis.  The Star Wars Jedi philosophy as stated by that particular line makes me think that the Jedi are completely clueless .

Absolutes prevent us from waffling on things - hold us accountable to what we say and what we do.  Without that, debate and discussion are nearly meaningless.

I knew it, a sith in bears clothing.

[JoMal]

Actually, I'm saying that it is completely reasonable - even NECESSARY - to speak in absolutes on a very frequent basis.  The Star Wars Jedi philosophy as stated by that particular line makes me think that the Jedi are completely clueless.

Absolutes prevent us from waffling on things - hold us accountable to what we say and what we do.  Without that, debate and discussion are nearly meaningless.

So what you are saying here is that Republicans are all Siths.

[WayOutWest]

Actually, I'm saying that it is completely reasonable - even NECESSARY - to speak in absolutes on a very frequent basis.  The Star Wars Jedi philosophy as stated by that particular line makes me think that the Jedi are completely clueless.

Absolutes prevent us from waffling on things - hold us accountable to what we say and what we do.  Without that, debate and discussion are nearly meaningless.

Saying something like "you're always late to work" or "all hispanics are thieves" is stupid hater talk much like "Kobe is this...Kobe is that..." at times Kobe is many things but haters make him bad all the time.