In short, he uses past stats to project the future performance of a team, but does not consider how the addition of certain parts adds much more to the team than the stats would indicate. The Sixers had a point differential of less than a point by the end of the season- a .500 team basically. The addition of Brand with no subtraction, should be at least 10 games
No it really shouldn't.
And maybe he takes into consideration how new players mesh into a team or how an offensive system has to change (as mo cheeks himself said, they threw out last years playbook and now have to come up with an entire new offense)...
Elton Brand is good - Elton Brand does not bring a 10 game win swing to a team...he does make a team 25% better than they were last year.
He doesn't solve the problems the sixers had last year, a big man is great, and will draw double teams, but if your outside shooting STILL SUCKS it still sucks.
Elton brand doesn't make andre miller a better 3 point shooter, or anyone else on the sixers, he doesn't make willie green better, he doesn't make louis williams taller or more of a natural point guard.
What Elton Brand DOES hopefully is limit the offensive touches of Sam Dalembert and hopefully Sam Dalebmert won't whine about it as he has in the past when things don't go his way.
Predictions based on statistics analysis and some history and trends to point at mean a little bit more than predictions based on gut feelings and nothing else to really back em up.
At least to me
But then again to the old schoolers it won't matter because the majority will dismiss it out of hand (my own personal feeling is because they don't want to understand it or just can't)
The analysis and understanding of sports did not stop in the 80s or 90s...i don't see why so many people refuse to think they can evolve and change as our understanding of other things evolves and changes.
20 years ago cancer was uncontrolled cell growth and everyone knew it
guess what - it's not any more
If you say that the addition of Elton makes for a 25% improvement, then you are agreeing with me. The Sixers won 40 games last season, a 25% increase is exactly 10 games more.
Essentially, Brand is replacing Reggie Evans in the starting lineup. That should equal a 12 pt. increase in scoring and another assist and a block or two to the Sixers average production from the 4 spot. That extra 12 points would have won the Sixers more like 20 additional games, had everything else stayed equal last season.
I think statistics give a much more solid foundation for projections that mere gut feelings. Subjective views are highly suspect, views with a basis in fact tend to be closer to reality.
No Brand won't make the other players play better, but he will give them an inside presence which means that they will now be able to score consistently in the half-court, something they were unable to do last season, and the reason Detroit was able to knock them out of the playoffs. When Detroit took care of the ball, the Sixers didn't have a chance. Now, when Detroit plays the Sixers with Brand, they will pound the ball inside and then throw the ball back out to the wing-men coming off screens.
Don't believe that nonsense about throwing out the playbook! The Sixers didn't have much of a playbook last season, because they had no one to throw the ball to. A couple of motion offense plays and post-up for Miller is all they had. Their success if you can call a 2 game under .500 season a success, is that they pressured other teams into giving up the ball and running down the other end and scoring before the other team had a chance to step up. The running game is what makes the Sixers go, and turnovers are what makes the running game go. That is still the way they are going to play.
The only difference now, is that when the Sixers can't run, they can walk it up and dump the ball into Brand. With athletic wing players like Young and Iguoduala, and a strong point guard who is a threat to score himself, the Sixers have the basis for a sound half-court game, even without a three point shooter. There isn't a team in the NBA that can cover the entire area within the 3 pt. line well enough to keep the Sixers from scoring, even when Brand is doubled.
With a retooled offense in place, the Sixers should be much more competitive than last season, able to stay in games where their superior athleticism and quickness can't get them enough turnovers to outscore the other team. Sound teams in the NBA, like the Spurs, Pistons, Celtics and Lakers don't give up the ball easily, and play strong defense themselves. Even teams like Orlando and Toronto were good enough last season to beat the Sixers. This season, they should have a chance most nights simply because of the addition of Brand.
But the Sixers added a couple of other pieces as well, Kareem Rush and Ivey to add depth to the guard spots, Theo Ratliff to replace the injured Jason Smith, and a first-round draft pick that the scouts seem to think is one of the most talented but lazy players. Marreese Speights.
Brand gets them to the point where they are a playoff team, but if Rush and Speights can play and give us better back-up depth than we had last season, the Sixers have a chance to contend for a title. That's probably more than Hollinger's stats could project, since he has no NBA data on Speights and no way to project the potential for improvement in their young players.
