tk and Dbods:
I don't necessarily disagree with tk on Smith. The problem I have is spending that amount of money on a guy who is a year away from us knowing if he will grow into his potential. He is exactly the kind of guy that the current one year rule of college would work for. In fact Ellis and Lou Williams are in the same boat. If they were not becoming FA's for another year we would have a better idea if:
1. Smith - See if he can start to tame his game into an efficient package. Increase the shooting %, improve his rebounding and overall add more substance to his game.
2. Ellis - Show if he can expand his game to the 3 pt. line and see whether he has any more PG skills. He has already shown plenty of value as a scorer, but I just want to see more considering his lack of size.
3. Williams - Perhaps on the opposite end of the spectrum in that he is still on the upswing, but hasn't had a really big year yet, might end up a little underpaid because of it.
Mainly with Smith I feel a little like we are mixing very expensive free agency with a touch of the draft. With Childress, Iggy, Okafor and Gordon, they are young enough to ensure they will stay productive age-wise through a 5-6 year deal, but I am already pretty sure what I am buying with the large amount of money I am spending. They all still have room to improve, but that will be in refining their games. Smith feels like he is still at least a step away and every description of him includes the term "potential." Potential equals gamble. I recognize the talent and the fit he would bring and in fact given our available options I would offer him a very big contract and see what happens. I'm just saying that if Atlanta matches, I may be both disappointed and relieved.
My statements on Ben Gordon and Ellis were meant to compliment Gordon and to simply say that the Ellis mania rumored to be out there may be misplaced, not to say that he is not a very good player. Ellis does have a lethal mid-range game and absolutely amazing, instictive move in traffic around the basket. At the same time he is small both height (6'3'' in his dreams) and weight/strength. I question whether a team making him a go to scorer and starter is getting what they intend to pay for. He absolutely benefits from a GS system that spreads the floor with numerous deadly offensive players, plays at high scoring pace and bascially gambles on steals as their form of D. On a team with less offensive firepower surrounding him he will get more defensive attention. That will require him to vary his offensive arsenal to include a 3 pt shot and show more ball-handling/passing skills becuase he will be double teaned or assigned a top defender more often. Defensively I really worry about him in a system that actually attempts to play D. Guys like Iverson and Arenas and Gordon are much phsically stronger than Ellis desoite their lack of height. Fighting a bigger player for position if they try to take you down town is as much about strength as about heighth. He overall does not look to me to be as explosively athletic or to have the PG skills of other top undersized scorers like Iverson and Arenas. I like him as a player and he should make a lot of money, but having 8-10 teams wanting to essentially max him out right now through S&T (adds that sixth year possibly) is too much for him. In the right system and at the right price you will get a very good player with significant limitations. To his credit he is excellent at maximizing what he can do and plays very much within himself on O, hence his very efficient shooting %. But there appears to be a mania for him that I think is overblown.
Ben Gordon would be a much better fit for what the Sixers need. He can be that guy who takes over a gane offensively and carries your team for a significant stretch of a game. Whne he is on he is nigh unstoppable, although he is certainly streaky. Dbods encouraged me ot re-evaluate his reputation as a chucker and it is overblown. He would provide a high end efficient scorer and three point shooter. He is not a good defender overall, but could become a good team defender and has good strength in his body despite his lack of size. He is under-rated by most teams around the league right now because he over-values himself. He might be worth $10 million a year (in FA the market is inflated) as the average for a 5 year deal. On the Sixers he would be a great complement to high end defenders, great all-around game types like Iggy and Thad are or will be at the swing positions. Split the minutes at 2-3 between those guys, with Iggy at the 3 and Thad at the 4 for a few minutes a game and our lack of scoring is fixed.
Childress at $7 million per is just above what I belive the mid-level is and truthfully I like him for that much more on a finished team that needs him as a lock-down defender and high-end glue player, which is not where we are yet, or to help offset Iggy's loss if we lose him (and look to add a scoring wing in his place with Childress off the bench). I agree that adding him to Iggy and Thad is a less appealing trio of wings, but could be cured by adding a shooting PG and a shooter at one of the "big man" positions.
On Sheed, I know he is capable of being a great defender and doing all of the little things that don't show up in the box score, but only when he is motivated, which seems to be less often these days. His declining numbers do bother me and I think he is moving from starter on a CHiP level team towards a Robert Horry type role on a contender. As a one year rental I fear dealing with Joe Dumars in a trade, I doubt he will be very motivated here, even in a contract year and we do need the rebounding he fails to bring. I also think he is slowing donw considerably and might not be as effective moving back to PF, especially on a running team.
Marion will be in full contract-drive mode this year and will produce up a storm. I think his value at the deadline won't be just as an expiring contract and that he will give the team more of a boost where it needs it. I am also hopimg that a trade for Marion would include a trade of Miller, which is unlikely in the case of Detroit and Sheed. I think we can preserve more cap flexibility in a Marion trade and have a better deadline asset. I also think it is time to move Miller and grab a young PG like Marcus Williams to compete with Lou at PG and see what they both have. I also fear losing more assets in a Sheed trade (i.e. first round picks) and want to preserve our assets to allow us to move up next year in a PG heavy draft and get the guy we want if none of our young PG's looks like the long-term answer.
