New power ranking on ESPN have the Spurs at the top.

[WayOutWest]

After all the big moves in the West the Spurs, not surprising, find themselves atop the West.  What else is new?  Two years ago the Spurs looked older and Manu and Parker hadn't come into their own yet, which is why I picked the Mavs to take them out.  Last year it should have been the Mavs again but since they blew it in the first round the Spurs had nobody to get in their way except the Suns, since they had HC I thought that would be enough to put them over the top.

This year is a little different.  The Mavs and Suns have regressed.  The Jazz have gotten better as have the Lakers.  Still it is hard to bet against the Spurs.  With Manu playing as well as he has lately and Tony comming back they seem to be the favorites.  Despite everyone claiming the Lakers are the favorites, they are mostly unproven in the playoffs.  Only Kobe and Fisher have the championship experience to carry the Lakers.  Bynum, Gasol and Odom are going to have to learn on the job and that's alot to ask of these guys when facing the Spurs.  While IMO the Lakers have the best bench in the league right now they are all unproven.  I see that PJ is keeping guys like Sasha and Jordan in the game in critical situations in order to prepare them for the playoffs but it's a whole nother ball game when you are actually in the playoffs.  If the Lakers can have HC against the Spurs I would pick the Lakers because this young team needs HC to succeed IMO.  If the Lakers face the Spurs without HC I think it will be too much for them to handle this year unless PJ can figure something out to pull it out.  A team like the Spurs will do enough to prevent Kobe from winning the series, they will force the other Lakers to prove themselves, Gasol and Fisher will probably be up to the task but I don't think anyone else will be able to handle that pressure, especially Odom.

The Jazz also present a MAJOR obsticle for the Lakers, they have a very good shot a beating the Lakers in the playoffs.  They have the right combo of size, speed and system to beat the Lakers, when all else fails for the Jazz they can always send Deron into the lane to disrupt the Laker defense.  I hope Bynum and Gasol can control the paint and mimimize the impact of Deron and the Jazz front line.  IMO the Jazz have the toughest front line in the league right now.

The playoffs are going to be great, hopefully no more injuries since the Rockets were robbed of a legit shot at a title with Yao going down for the season.

[Reality]

I'm on the one-day-at-a-time program as to who the Spurs opponents will be and who has HC.
But your speculation that Spurs-Lakers or Lakers-Spurs are seeded #1-2 is fine with me.

Kurt Thomas' playoff role.  Really want to see how this plays out.
So far he's been a beauty, in 41 minutes clearing 21 rebounds.

Parker looked very good yesterday, his presense is huge.
Whether or not its he, Duncan or SuperManu for another Finals MVP makes no difference to me.

[msc]

The Spurs should be, and should always have been, ranked #1 in that stupid Power Rankings thing.  Besides the fact that they're the defending champs and have all of that experience playing together, they have the least amount of losses in the Western Conference.  All the media heads are jumping on the Lakers bandwagon and picking them to win it all.  Stupid, stupid, stupid.  Like WOW points out, only two of the Lakers have deep playoff experience.  Obviously, nothing would make me happier, but realistically, I don?t' see the Lakers winning it all this year.  I'm just hopeful they compete well in the playoffs and have a chance, but I think the Spurs experience and consistent defensive toughness would prove out in a 7 game series against the Lakers and anyone else in the West. 

[Skandery]

msc, your working that subconcious reverse-psychology hard, man.  You should be a guru.


j/k

[Lurker]

The Spurs should be, and should always have been, ranked #1 in that stupid Power Rankings thing.  Besides the fact that they're the defending champs and have all of that experience playing together, they have the least amount of losses in the Western Conference.  All the media heads are jumping on the Lakers bandwagon and picking them to win it all.  Stupid, stupid, stupid.  Like WOW points out, only two of the Lakers have deep playoff experience.  Obviously, nothing would make me happier, but realistically, I don?t' see the Lakers winning it all this year.  I'm just hopeful they compete well in the playoffs and have a chance, but I think the Spurs experience and consistent defensive toughness would prove out in a 7 game series against the Lakers and anyone else in the West. 

Part of the Spurs not being #1 all year is that the rankings are supposed to be based on standings + current level of play.  And the Spurs went through a couple month struggle with various injuries.  They were #1 when they were sitting 17-3 before the injuries. 

The Lakers have a couple questions that need to be answered IMO.  First is how Bynum & Gasol will play off each other on the court...it looks great on paper but actual playing together could be different.  Will they mesh defensively?  Communication and familiarity are keys to solid team defense...can the Lakers establish that in a short time?  Does Bynum clog up the lane for Gasol offensively?  Maybe moving towards the offensive boards too soon and drawing another defender into the paint?  Second is playoff experience.  Gasol has not looked good in his playoff series with the Grizzlies.  It may have been the fact that he was "the man" as opposed to a complimentary player but it still has to be seen how he responds.  

But I still see the Lakers and Jazz as the biggest obstacles to the Spurs repeating.  I don't think Dallas can win 4 games in a series against the Spurs any more...

[westkoast]

Kobe Bryant seems to agree.  When asked what the young players need to do to prepare for the playoffs he said that they need to watch the Spurs and Pistons to see how they play tough, consistent defense because defense is what wins championships.

I said it earlier last month that the road to the championship still runs through SA until someone beats them in the playoffs.  This is almost becoming Deja Vu where every season for the past 4-5 years the Spurs are questioned about where they are at in Jan/Feb then when March and April hits they are in full stride for the playoffs.

[Skandery]

The Lakers have a couple questions that need to be answered IMO.

These seem a lot like the questions people asked about how good Gasol would fit in after Memphis' gift.
Experience matters, no question, though . . .

[WayOutWest]

Kobe Bryant seems to agree.  When asked what the young players need to do to prepare for the playoffs he said that they need to watch the Spurs and Pistons to see how they play tough, consistent defense because defense is what wins championships.

I said it earlier last month that the road to the championship still runs through SA until someone beats them in the playoffs.  This is almost becoming Deja Vu where every season for the past 4-5 years the Spurs are questioned about where they are at in Jan/Feb then when March and April hits they are in full stride for the playoffs.

That's the other side of the coin, unlike past years, just getting to the finals does not ensure a championship for the WC winner.  Detroit, more than Boston but Boston as well, could defeat the WC winner  just as convincingly as a WC team can take out another WC team.

[JoMal]

ABTSOSO,LMH (*)











*Anybody but the same old same old, like maybe Houston.

[msc]

msc, your working that subconcious reverse-psychology hard, man.  You should be a guru.


j/k

  

Well, maybe there's some subconscious truth to that, but it's more reverse psychology for my own head.  I've always been the type of fan that sets myself up for a loss.  I never expect my teams to win, that way I'm not (or at least I try not) to be as disappointed if/when they lose.  The problem with this is that it usually doesn't work. 

Regardless of all that nonsense, I do believe the Spurs still got it.  Their time on top is running out though.  All good things must come to an end as is the case with any dynasty. 

[rickortreat]

My own power rankings are a little different.

1.  Houston
2.  L.A. Lakers
3.  Detroit
4.  Toronto
5.  San Antonio
6.  Boston
7.  Orlando
8.  Philadelphia
9.  Denver
10.Cleveland

These are the top 10 teams in plus-minus over the past 10 games.

If you want to argue that the view should be even more recent. Here is the top 10 over the past 5 games:

1. Houston
2. Detroit
3. Boston
4. Orlando
5. L.A. Lakers
6. San Antonio
7. Cleveland
8. Golden State
9. Dallas
10.Toronto

Even if you go to the full totals for the season- which I don't think is valid as a result of the trades and injuries, San Antonio has never been at the top of the stats in any area. Based on the most recent results Boston is climbing back up to the top. Detroit has been steadier and better than San Antonio so far. Houston has been better than everybody, and they've been doing it for a while now. That may change with Yao gone, but so far they are the leaders.

[WayOutWest]

My own power rankings are a little different.

1.  Houston
2.  L.A. Lakers
3.  Detroit
4.  Toronto
5.  San Antonio
6.  Boston
7.  Orlando
8.  Philadelphia
9.  Denver
10.Cleveland

I would put Detroit and the Spurs ahead of the Lakers cause those teams are doing it with defense, the Lakers are just flowing great on offense and playing average defense.

[rickortreat]

My own power rankings are a little different.

1.  Houston
2.  L.A. Lakers
3.  Detroit
4.  Toronto
5.  San Antonio
6.  Boston
7.  Orlando
8.  Philadelphia
9.  Denver
10.Cleveland

I would put Detroit and the Spurs ahead of the Lakers cause those teams are doing it with defense, the Lakers are just flowing great on offense and playing average defense.

That's a subjective viewpoint.  The Lakers are playing enough defense to outscore teams by a higher margin than the Spurs. Right now, they're doing it better than the Pistons.

If my team wins by 15, I really don't care how many points I gave up. I prefer watching a team like LA play than a team like Detroit. 

Of course the real question is what happens when the Lakers play a team like Detroit or the Spurs.  Is LA strong enough now to force the tempo, and make Detroit play their style.  If the answer is yes, then they're the better team, if on the other hand Detroit or SA can still impose their will on them and force that slow execution oriented half-court ball, then that would give the Pistons the edge.

This ranking is as good as one can have mid-season, but 10 games is too small a sample to be absolute. It simply shows who's playing the best right now, against the rest of the league, not necessarily quality opponents.  LA can impose it's will on a lot of teams now, and that's why they've moved up in the standings. Houston deserves the credit for being on top, T-Mac seems determined to keep the Rockets rocking.

[Lurker]

Rick...there are too many flaws with your method.  Strength of schedule, home vs away, current performance and others.  But rather than having you spend too much time trying to account for all of those things you can just go to ESPN and look at Hollinger's daily ratings.  The backbone of his ratings is point differential but he takes into account the other factors I listed.  It is also updated daily.

Here is his formula if you want to disect the mathematics of it...

HOLLINGER'S FORMULA
RATING = (((SOS-0.5)/0.037)*0.67) + (((SOSL10-0.5)/0.037)*0.33) + 100 + (0.67*(MARG+(((ROAD-HOME)*3.5)/(GAMES))) + (0.33*(MARGL10+(((ROAD10-HOME10)*3.5)/(10)))))


SOS = Season Win/Loss percentage of team's opponents, expressed as a decimal (e.g., .500)

SOSL10 = Season Win/Loss percentage of team's last 10 opponents, expressed as a decimal (e.g., .500)

MARG = Team's average scoring margin

MARGL10 = Team's average scoring margin over the last 10 games

HOME = Team's home games

HOMEL10 = Team's home games over the last 10 games

ROAD = Team's road games

ROADL10 = Team's road games over the last 10 games

GAMES = Team's total games
 

And here is his top 10...
1. Lakers
2. Pistons
3. Celtics
4. Spurs
5. Rockets
6. Jazz
7. Magic
8. Raptors
9. Mavs
10. Hornets

[rickortreat]

Thanks for that Lurker.  It is a better method obviously, although I'm not sure if the weightings are the way I would set them up.  Ordinarily, by this point in the season the number of games takes care of all of your concerns. 

The main criticism I have, which may or may not be valid depends on whether or not you can change the time period.  The NBA site only allows the season to date, last 10 games or last 5.  Because of all the changes with key teams personnel, it makes sense to focus on where these teams are now over the past 2-3 weeks, and how they will change over the next 4 weeks.  It's more important to me to focus on these games, as the teams try to work the new additions into their play and at the same time be in a pressure situation of winning or getting chased out of the playoffs.

Teams change over time, and some teams develop to the point where they displace the teams above them.  A good example of this is the Sixers, who have demonstrated that they are now a playoff team even though they have a below .500 record.  The reason is that since they developed a new style of play and figured out how to win, they are now playing better than .500 ball.  This change showed up in the point differential first, and now it's revealing itself in the standings.

And those who want to say this is simply the result of a weak schedule, they did beat Orlando, Dallas and Phoenix.  Maybe not the best teams, but all three are legit contenders. When over the last 10 games they're winning by an average of over 5 pts, they're not the 15th or 16th team but the 8th best team in the league.