No, I have to say the Colts are more likely to win for several reasons.
First, the Bears have Rex Grossman, who should not be the quarterback face of a team going to the Super Bowl. If this is a close game, Grossman is NOT the guy you want trying to lead your team down the field in the waning moments to try to tie or take the lead. Now picture Peyton Manning in the same scenario. No contest.
Second, the major weakness of the Bears this season has been giving up the big play, most often on deep passes. We may have a bit of a mismatch there, folks.
Third, the most prolific threat for the Bears? Its Hestor. The Bears will no doubt be handed excellent field position all day due to him, plus the defense is so good at taking the ball away. So it just might come down to how well the Colt defense can maintain the line of scrimage and keep the Bears out of the end zone and force them to try field goals. The problem for the Bears in these terrific situations? Again, their quarterback. He is more likely to misfire on his passes due to his high level of anxiety, so can the Bears run the ball on the Colts? To a point, but the Colts of late have actually been tackling and keeping the runners in front of them. That is mostly due to Sanders being healthy and playing once again. That one guy seems to energize that entire defense by himself. A difference maker.