Foreign 1st Rd picks

[Reality]

There have been 20 first-round international draft picks from 2002-04, and only Yao Ming has been a major impact player.

Not sure who wrote and researched this for Dick Vitale, but it makes total sense so far.  Of course some of these draftees may still develop and become impact players.

Recent international first-rounders lack impact
Dick Vitale SPECIAL TO ESPN.COM June 30, 2005 | ESPN.com's NBA draft coverage

2004 DRAFT
Andris Biedrins – Golden State (No. 11) – 30 games, 3.6 ppg
Pavel Podkolzin – Dallas (21) – 5 games, 10 minutes, 0.2 ppg
Viktor Khryapa – Portland (22) – 32 games, 4.2 ppg
Sergey Monia – Portland (23) – DNP
Sasha Vujacic – L.A. Lakers (27) – 35 games, 2.9 ppg
Beno Udrih – San Antonio (28) – 80 games, 5.9 ppg

2003 DRAFT
Darko Milicic – Detroit (No. 2 – 37 games, 254 minutes, 1.8 ppg
Mickael Pietrus – Golden State (11) – 67 games, 9.5 ppg., 42.7% on FGs
Zarko Cabarkapa – Phoenix (17) – 40 games, 6.0 ppg (Phoenix and GS)
Sasha Pavlovic – Utah (19) – 65 games, 4.8 ppg (with Cleveland)
Boris Diaw – Atlanta (21) – 66 games, 4.8 ppg
Zoran Planinic – New Jersey (22) – 43 games, 5.0 ppg
Carlos Delfino – Detroit (25) – 30 games, 3.9 ppg
Leandro Barbosa – San Antonio (28) – 63 games, 7.0 ppg (with Phoenix)

2002 DRAFT
Yao Ming – Houston (No. 1) – 80 games, 18.3 ppg, 8.4 rpg
Nikoloz Tskitishvili – Denver (5) – 35 games, 1.4 ppg (Denver and GS)
Nene Hilario – Denver (7) – 55 games, 9.6 ppg, 5.9 rpg
Bostjan Nachbar – Houston (15) – 71 games, 7.0 ppg (Houston and NO)
Jiri Welsch – Golden State (16) – 71 games, 6.5 ppg (Boston and Cleveland)
Nenad Krstic – New Jersey (24) – 75 games, 10.0 ppg, 5.3 rpg

Clippers coach Mike Dunleavy recently said on radio that analysts are on TV to make noise. He said I was misinformed concerning international players.

I went on to state the facts regarding international players. The bottom line is this: The numbers don't lie. There haven't been very many impact international players in the first round in the past three years.

There have been 20 first-round international draft picks from 2002-04, and only Yao Ming has been a major impact player.  
This is more than just an opinion. This is a fact.

I do admire what NBA commissioner David Stern has done in terms of the globalization of the NBA. He has done a terrific job, and the sport has a tremendous following worldwide.

As I said on ESPN's draft coverage Tuesday night, I feel there are times when American players are scrutinized more than foreign imports. I believe scouts find the warts and faults of many American college players.

This year, only four foreign imports were taken in round one (I don't include Andrew Bogut, since he played at Utah). I haven't seen enough of Fran Vazquez, Yaroslav Korolev, Johan Petro or Ian Mahinmi. But I can tell you that when Vazquez and Korolev came off the board, Sean May, Danny Granger and Gerald Green were still available – and that surprised and disappointed me.

Dunleavy defended the Clippers' first-round selection of Korolev, and only time will tell which picks work out and which don't long-term. My only question is, when you look at the last three years, have the international players taken in the first round really had a major impact in the NBA?

Again, as I said on draft night, the answer is no – and that's a fact. There have been 20 first-round international draft picks from 2002-04, and only Yao Ming has been a major impact player. Yes, a few have contributed, like Nene Hilario in Denver, Mickael Pietrus at Golden State, Nenad Krstic with New Jersey and Jiri Welsch, though he has bounced around.

I have nothing against drafting an international player over an American if he is clearly the better talent. Obviously, over the years stars like Dirk Nowitzki, Manu Ginobili and Tony Parker have been major forces in the NBA game.

However, my statement on draft night was that over the last three years, only one international player out of 20 drafted in the first round made a major impact. Mr. Dunleavy, let the record speak for itself! The facts are the facts.

Let's look at the names, and you tell me if there has been an impact international first-rounder other than Yao (with the team that originally selected the player, the number of the first-round pick and 2004-05 stats).

The numbers speak for themselves. What I said on draft night is a fact, backed up by the statistics shown here. The draft isn't an exact science, and it isn't easy to project how well prospects will perform in their careers.

Of course, Dunleavy will defend his team's selection of Korolev. I hope Korolev works out well and fulfills your team's dream, Mr. Dunleavy! Meanwhile, the Charlotte Hornets are happy Sean May fell to them No. 13.

Thanks, Mike ... like I needed this extra chore after a long night working the draft, baby! I had nothing better to do than to statistically chart every player drafted in the first round the last three years. But a simple reminder, Mike: I still love you! The Dunleavys have always been some of my favorite people.

 

[Derek Bodner]

Pietrus is going to be an impact player very, very soon.

Jaric is very good as well, IMO.  Take a look at those assist/turnover and steal/turnover ratios.

*ack, nevermind, jaric was technically a 2nd round pick, 30th*

[ziggy]

Here are all the 1st round college seniors in the last 3 years, and what pick they were taken at.

8   Rafael Araujo
10   Luke Jackson
7   Kirk Hinrich
12   Nick Collison
13   Marcus Banks
20   Jameer Nelson
25   Tony Allen
15   Reece Gaines
16   Troy Bell
18   David West
20   Dahntay Jones
24   Brian Cook
29   Josh Howard
14   Fred Jones
17   Juan Dixon
19   Ryan Humphrey
23   Tayshaun Prince
26   John Salmons
28   Dan Dickau

There have been 20 college seniors taken as first round picks, since 2002.  Which of those have made a major impact?
Kirk Hinrich
Tayshaun Prince
Neither has made an all-star game, but Yao has.

Those that made a reasonable impact.
Josh Howard averaged 28 minutes on a good team.
Fred Jones was the #8-#9 guy on a good team.
Dickau was the starting PG for 1/2 the season on the worst team in the league.
Jameer Nelson started about 20 games for a 36 win team.

Vitale is being highly disingenuous.  He takes only the last 3 years, which is a time frame at which it is difficult to measure players.  He also doesn't give any other data such as the performance of another subset.  In other words, he sets the thing up to indicate what he wants.

Lets look at high school seniiors over the same time frame, drfated in the first round.

1   Dwight Howard
4   Shaun Livingston
12   Robert Swift
13   Sebastian Telfair
1   Lebron James
9   Amare Stoudemire
15   Al Jefferson
17   Josh Smith
18   J.R. Smith
19   Dorell Wright
23   Travis Outlaw
26   Ndudi Ebi
27   Kendrick Perkins

In that group of 13 you have 3 absolute studs (Howard, LeBron, Amare), better than any senior, and at this point I believe all three are better than Yao.  Telfair started about 30 games in Portland, Jefferson played 18 minutes a game in Boston, Josh Smith won the Slam Dunk contest and averaged 28 minutes and 10 points a game, JR Smith averaged 10.5 points and 25 minutes, and Travis Outlaw averaged over 11 points per game in 21 of his last 24 games (after he started getting reasonable minutes).

From that it is quite clear that it is better to draft a HS senior than a college senior, and an international player has about as much success as a college senior.

OH BABY DICK VITALE IS AN IDIOT

[Reality]

From that it is quite clear that it is better to draft a HS senior than a college senior, and an international player has about as much success as a college senior.

So you are agreeing with Dick[/size]?

[Reality]

Vitale is being highly disingenuous.  He takes only the last 3 years, which is a time frame at which it is difficult to measure players.  He also doesn't give any other data such as the performance of another subset.  In other words, he sets the thing up to indicate what he wants.

zig,

What happens if one opens it up to 1998-onward?

Also it seems 2nd Rd ITNL picks are kicking booty more then 1st Rdrs.

[ziggy]

From that it is quite clear that it is better to draft a HS senior than a college senior, and an international player has about as much success as a college senior.

So you are agreeing with Dick[/size]?

I am not arguing his facts as they stand today, but I am saying his way to measure the quality of international players is bogus.  He is looking at 3 years, and using that to make a judgement that NBA teams shouldn't draft international players so high.  At the same time he says nothing about the or lack there of college seniors.  He also makes no reference to player age, and if they have contract conflicts in Europe, or injuries.  Look at the age of all the international players

2004 DRAFT
Andris Biedrins 18  (Had multiple 10+ rebound games, shot 57% from floor, and is 7'.  In 3 to 4 years Biedrens will be an NBA starter, and clearly a better player than say Rasho, another Euro center)
Pavel Podkolzin 19  (Health problems played 5 games)
Viktor Khryapa 21  (Broken foot played 30 games)
Sergey Monia 21 (Played in Europe)
Sasha Vujacic 20  (next seniors selected in that draft were Jackson Vroman, Lionel Chamber, Andre Emmett.  It si not like the Lakers passed on a lot of other highly talented players)
Beno Udrih 21 (Played regular minutes on the NBA Champ)

2003 DRAFT
Darko Milicic 18  So far a major bust, a great big WHO KNOWS.
Mickael Pietrus 21 (20 minutes 9.5 points, see me in 3 years and lets see how many college seniors from the last 3 drafts are as good or better than him, my guess 2 maybe 3)
Zarko Cabarkapa 22 (had a bad injury his rookie year, but has had a number of double digit point games)
Sasha Pavlovic 19 (played regular minutes with Utah and Cleveland)
Boris Diaw 21  (see Pietrus, maybe not quite as good.  I saw him play twice and both times I was impressed with his athleticism))
Zoran Planinic 20  (played a lot of minutes while Kidd was out, and he did OK)
Carlos Delfino 20  
Leandro Barbosa 20 (averaged 21.4 minutes as a rookie, and 17.3 in year 2 backing up Nash).

2002 DRAFT
Yao Ming – Houston  21
Nikoloz Tskitishvili 19  (Big time bust so far)
Nene Hilario 19 (starts and plays good minutes for Denver)
Bostjan Nachbar 21 (in 55 games after being traded to NO, averaged 8 points in 21 minutes.  I wonder how many of the seniors did that?)
Jiri Welsch 22  (Averaged 27 minutes and 9 points for Boston in 03-04. only seniors comparable to or better than him are Hinrich, Howard, Jones and Prince, and in time Luke Jackson)
Nenad Krstic 19  (as a 21 year old rookie center averaged 10 points 5.5 rebounds in 26.2 minutes.  He had 10 double doubles, and in his last 32 games he averaged 32 minutes, 13.5 points, 7 rebounds, and 53% from the field)

Based on age of these international players, I would say that in 3 years it will be clear that, at least for these 3 drafts, it made a great deal more sense to draft an international player than a college senior.

I would like to here some other opinions, like Joe, Derek, Skandery, Lurker.
 

[ziggy]

Vitale is being highly disingenuous.  He takes only the last 3 years, which is a time frame at which it is difficult to measure players.  He also doesn't give any other data such as the performance of another subset.  In other words, he sets the thing up to indicate what he wants.

zig,

What happens if one opens it up to 1998-onward?

Also it seems 2nd Rd ITNL picks are kicking booty more then 1st Rdrs.

Since 1995 college seniors that have been impact players, and what there draft position was

1   Tim Duncan
5   Ray Allen
1   Kenyon Martin
2   Keith Van Horn
3   Raef LaFrentz
6   Wally Szczerbiak
6   Antoine Walker
7   Kirk Hinrich
7   Damon Stoudamire
8   Andre Miller
8   Kerry Kittles
10   Jason Terry
10   Erick Dampier
10   Kurt Thomas
13   Derek Anderson
15   Steve Nash
15   Brent Barry
17   Desmond Mason
18   Theo Ratliff
19   Jamaal Magloire
21   Michael Finley
22   Kenny Thomas
23   Tayshaun Prince
41   Cuttino Mobley
43   Eric Snow
26 out of 327 players drafted or 8%, and there is not one other senior that I see ever making a significant impact

International players
1   Yao Ming
9   Dirk Nowitzki
3   Pau Gasol
14   Predrag Stojakovic
20   Zydrunas Ilgauskas
24   Andrei Kirilenko
28   Tony Parker
57   Emanuel Ginobili
8 out of 84 players drafted or 9.5%, and I think there are potentially 3 to 5, and in the right situation maybe 7 to 8 international players that could eventually be in the same performance level as Snow, Mobley, Kenny Thomas, Desmond Mason, Tayshaun Prince, Derek Anderson.

[Derek Bodner]

You can't evaluate a draft class in under 3 years, much less international players.  That's absurd.

[Reality]

You can't evaluate a draft class in under 3 years, much less international players.  That's absurd.

I don't think Dick[/size], zig, you or I are absurd. :rofl:   Actually i do think Dick Vitale is absurd.

Seriously zig props for the stats.  I was hoping you can also respond to my other thread on The Secondary Market in Draft Rights.

What has been established in that in the last 3 years, 90% of 1st R draft picks, be it ITL, College Senior, or high schooler are not making a major impact.  But as zig posted, certainly a much higher % are contributing, with time telling how much moreso they will contribute in the next 2-5 years.  As they heal from injury, maybe even change teams/coaches the contributor % could and lets just say will go up.

[westkoast]

He is looking at 3 years, and using that to make a judgement that NBA teams shouldn't draft international players so high.

International players comming here to America need time to adjust.  Much like a HS player needs time to adjust to playing the pro game. Granted some international players have come over here and picked up quite quickly (Dirk, Manu, Peja, Vlade) most do not.  1-2 years is not an ok period of time to judge a players performance when they have to learn  about new styles of playing defense/ofense, rules, sometimes the english language,  American way of life, constant media attention,  etc etc etc......the list goes on and on.

Dick Vitale is an annoying idiot and forever "riding" for college basketball.  This kind reminds me of the whole 'you should only buy American cars' debate.  If there is a better product (or in this case player) overseas then I am going for the better product.

[Reality]

International players comming here to America need time to adjust.  Much like a HS player needs time to adjust to playing the pro game. Granted some international players have come over here and picked up quite quickly (Dirk, Manu, Peja, Vlade) most do not.  1-2 years is not an ok period of time to judge a players performance....

So thus it becomes vital, (is that Vitale?) that a teams scouts know how to select foreign talent.  Who rules in this regard?:

Besides Manu and Parker wearing two rings, we have the Argentine Center for the 2005-6 Spurs.  But it doesn't end there.  As for young whippersnappers up and coming:

" 6'10" Georgian shooting forward Viktor Sanikidze, drafted last year, still only 18. Sanikidze is probably the best prospect under 20 among those international players already drafted."  
http://www.phillyarena.net/forums/index.php?showtopic=2233

westkoast it's time you made the switch to the Spurs.  I think you are ready.  There is going to be an adjustment period, learning about new styles of playing defense/offense, rules such as not recieving bogus favoritism, sometimes the Hoop language, Spurs way of life, no drama queen constant media attention, etc etc etc......the list goes on and on.

But i think you are ready.

[ziggy]

http://www.nbadraft.net/profiles/viktorsanikidze.asp

Strenghts: Has a bad shooting technique but good touch and accuracy ... Great athleticisim, long limbs: arms and legs ... An excellent rebounder ... A tough player ... Caoachable, willing to learn the game ... Great energy, enthusiastic type of guy, very positive, active ... A relentless worker ...

Weaknesses: Inexperience, Needs strength, lack of weight ... Inexperience at a high level, he hasn't played many minutes with seniors yet, ballhandling to work on ... Must develop his understanding of the game ...

Notes: The biggest sleeper in the draft. Worthy of first round consideration. He played for Globe Tech Junior college in New York for one season and returned to Europe, therefore by rule he is automatically entered into the 2004 draft. Given a few years in Europe, he definitely would have been a first round pick.
 




 

[Skandery]

If you break down the 2002 and 2003 first rounds into just internationals, seniors, and high-schoolers.

2003:

International:  Milicic, Cabarkapa, Pavlovic, Diaw, Delfino, Pietrus, Planinic, Barbosa.

Seniors:  Hinrich, Collison, Banks, Gaines, Bell, West, D. Jones, Howard, Cook

HS:  LeBron, Outlaw, Perkins, Ebi

In this class I would say the seniors, with players like Hinrich, Collison, Banks, and Howard, have had a little more impact.  The International players have Pietrus who has regularly produced but really all the others have yet to make significant long-term contributions.  Interestingly is that ALL the international players remain on the landscape whereas players like Gaines, Bell, and West have fallen off the radar.  Besides LeBron, I don't think anything of the HS players in this class, but LeBron was ROY and is the best player period....hmmm.

2002:

International:  Ming, Tskitishvilli, Hilario, Nachbar, Welsch, Krstic

Seniors:  Ely, F. Jones, Dixon, Humphrey, Prince, F. Williams, Salmons, Dickau

HS:  Stoudemire

This class is a little more even amongst the Ints and the Seniors.  Intls are (2-3-1) (Starter-Role-Bust) and the Seniors are (2-4-2).  Now I think that Hilario has the talent to start and Tskit just averaged double figure points in the LVSL but you never know.  But Amare was ROY is the best player period.......hmmm.

The moral of the story is that if you have a top high school prospect with great NBA size for their projected position (LeBron, Amare) take 'em quick.  It was no surprise that Orlando went with Dwight Howard, not Emeka Okafor.  As for the Seniors, its a crapshoot, you can get a starter, a role player, or an absolute bust.  With the Internationals, it is going to be rare that you get an absolute bust, but you ain't gettin' Dirk Nowitzki every year either.  I think International players have a bit of an advantage in that they start playing professionally at a younger age and have a great team-oriented style of play (most of the time) that gets incorporated within their games.  So generally a bench player like Cabarkapa is going to be a better passer and cutter than say John Salmons.  I also think Scouts too often mistake good play for the reflection of what a better player on the team is doing.  In the 2002 draft, Milicic, Cabarkapa, and Pavlovic were all on Serbia-Montenegro's team.  Are all top-flight NBA prospects or did they benefit from playing alongside Stojakovic, Divac, Radmonavic, and Krstic.  

My opinion is that Dick Vitale is an idiot, college players in the first round are often just as big of a risk as International players.  Besides Bron, I think Hinrich is the second best (in 2003) and I wouldn't be surprised if Pietrus catches him and besides Amare (in 2002), Ming is head and shoulders above everybody else.  So the ceiling is higher on these Intls.  

Is he an idiot for saying Granger and Hodge should've gone before Vasquez and Korolev, time will tell, but probably yes..he's an idiot.  Now he's not an idiot for saying Gerald Green should have gone before Vasquez and Korolev.  Gerald Green, top high school prospect with great NBA size for playing SG....hmmmm.

[westkoast]

International players comming here to America need time to adjust.  Much like a HS player needs time to adjust to playing the pro game. Granted some international players have come over here and picked up quite quickly (Dirk, Manu, Peja, Vlade) most do not.  1-2 years is not an ok period of time to judge a players performance....

So thus it becomes vital, (is that Vitale?) that a teams scouts know how to select foreign talent.  Who rules in this regard?:

Besides Manu and Parker wearing two rings, we have the Argentine Center for the 2005-6 Spurs.  But it doesn't end there.  As for young whippersnappers up and coming:

" 6'10" Georgian shooting forward Viktor Sanikidze, drafted last year, still only 18. Sanikidze is probably the best prospect under 20 among those international players already drafted."  
http://www.phillyarena.net/forums/index.php?showtopic=2233

westkoast it's time you made the switch to the Spurs.  I think you are ready.  There is going to be an adjustment period, learning about new styles of playing defense/offense, rules such as not recieving bogus favoritism, sometimes the Hoop language, Spurs way of life, no drama queen constant media attention, etc etc etc......the list goes on and on.

But i think you are ready.

I love the Spurs defense.  Always have.  I personally am all about defense.  Scoring, dunking, and all that is cool, love that too.  However, what really impresses me is a guy like Bowen shutting someone down the last 3 minutes of a game rather than seeing Vince Carter drop 6,000 on the Hawks.

Spurs recieve favoritism just like any other top team in the league.  You are chosing not to see it because everyone else does, including Spurs fans.

Now back to the International player debate....

I think its hard for scouts to judge things other than raw talent.  A scout really cannot determine how well a player will adjust to his life in America, the english language, media attention....you know things like that.  IMO its even harder than judging a HS player at times.  Some of these guys are set in the euro style of basketball and need to unlearn that in a sense.  


 

[Reality]

I love the Spurs defense.  Always have.  I personally am all about defense.  Scoring, dunking, and all that is cool, love that too.  However, what really impresses me is a guy like Bowen shutting someone down the last 3 minutes of a game rather than seeing Vince Carter drop 6,000 on the Hawks.

Spurs recieve favoritism just like any other top team in the league.  You are chosing not to see it because everyone else does, including Spurs fans.

It's gonna take you some more time, but you are progressing nicely.  I have seen people take 40+ years to accept the Light of Hoop.

Maybe 2006 playoffs, maybe not.  Maybe 2007 playoffs we can sit down and root for the Spurs together.

Now back to the subject of ITNL player scouting.

The Spurs ITNL scouts 1999-2005 are the best.

Simply the best........be ter then alll the rest.