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« on: June 30, 2008, 01:52:54 PM »
Here is my look at the teams in each conference (in order of last season's records) and how I think they will do in the short (2008-2010 seasons) term and longer term future based on where they are today:
EASTERN CONFERENCE
Celtics - Probably have a two year window at a very high level, long term they will have to convert the big three's future expiring contracts into talented new faces or it's back to the lottery.
Pistons - Short term window is still open, but prospects not as high as C's right now. Long term will likely transition semi-smoothly to a younger, play-off caliber team, but how long until they reach the top of the conference after the curent core departs?
Magic - Short and long term they look like second round playoff victims. The Rashard Lewis deal has killed their flexibility to take the team to the next level and absent an injury to D. Howard their draft picks won't be very high.
Cavaliers - LeBron can always carry this team to to the finals, but doubtful that he will be carrying them after the summer of 2010.
Wizards - Similar to the Magic, especially if they kill their future cap for Arenas and Jamison.
Raptors - May be competing with the C's for Eastern supremacy in the next two years if O'Neal is healthy. Long term - can they keep Bosh in 2010? Might depend on the strength of the Canadian dollar.
76ers - Short term is very unpredictable, but definitely a team on the rise. Long term looks promising if they don't screw the cap with a bad FA signing.
Hawks - Look like a 42-46 win team in the short term, new management team gives some hope for converting the young core into championship contender material in the long term, screwed up ownership issues scare me.
Pacers - Just starting the rebuild, expect to see Tinsley and Williams jettisoned as they clean out the head cases. No superstar to build around, long term chances depend on luck in future lotteries.
Nets - Just biding time until the trade deadline or summer of 2010, it will be boom or bust then. If they don't strike it big then they should at least have enough good, young talent to be a low level playoff team.
Bulls - Should be a team on the rise, if they suck this year Paxson will get the boot and their long term future will look brighter.
Bobcats - MJ + LB + mediocre talent + strange draft = overachieving in the short term, followed by the usual post-LB fall-off. MJ becomes the modern day Elgin Baylor of personnel moves, and Elgin is insulted.
Bucks - I have no idea what they are doing, but they are doing it forcefully. Looking to model themselves on the Hawks plan of playing 5 small forwards together at some point? Scott Skiles will improve them to a possible 8 seed for a while, then the burn-out begins.
Knicks - See what I said about NJ, except without the young talent.
Heat - Short term Spoelstra will work hard to mesh the currently disparate parts, long term expect them to pull in a big star in 2010 and for Riley to be back on the bench with spoelstra getting a pat on the back for doing the heavy lifting while Riley enjoys the good times.
WESTERN CONFERENCE
Lakers - Short term contenders when Bynum return, long term they need to start planning for the post-Kobe era, his is piling up mileage fast, but the Lakers have been in the lottery less than anyone for a reason.
Hornets - Already very good and likely to get better.
Spurs - Similar to the Celtics, need to re-tool short term and hit the lottery and/or FA post-Duncan in a couple of years.
Jazz - Short term look like contenders to reach the conference finals, long term depends on Boozer staying, and staying healthy, for a long run at a high level.
Rockets - I am getting the same kind of bad feeling about them I had about the Heat last year. Injury prone superstar players surrounded by role players is not a great way to build a team. Unless they stay healthy I don't see many more big winning streaks in Houston.
Suns - If they still have a CHiP window, it is closing fast. Long term looks mediocre.
Mavericks - Already heading into mediocrity, but may make some noise in the next year or two.
Nuggets - They need to make big changes this summer or this will be team fun to watch, frustrating in the play-offs for the foreseeable future.
Warriors - Short term will entertain, but win nothing of significance. Similar to Denver, but way more young talent, so the long term may be better once Nellie's liver gives out.
Trail Blazers - Oodles of young talent, regional competition moving to OKC, aggressive GM with lots of stashed Euros and future picks, plus Paul Allen's checkbook. They can be very good even if Oden doesn't fully recover, dominant if he does.
Kings - Mediocre would look pretty good right now, long term Kevin Martin will become one of those good players on perenially bad to mediocre teams.
Clippers - I have no clue, and neither do they usually.
Timberwolves - Kevin McHale and no one on the team who can play adequate D at their position. 'nuff said.
Grizzlies - Bad organization, bad things happen to bad organizations. Call them the anti-Blazers.
SuperSonics - Short term I see more trips to the lottery. Long term should be much more promising, although some of their moves are befuddling they will have too much talent to not win a lot of games down the road.
Balancing the conferences long term, in the East once the C's and Pistons start to fail there are no sure things. Teams on the rise like the Sixers, Hawks and Raptors all have cloudy or dangerous, but potentially bright, futures. Miami and Chicago could make quick turn-arounds with some smart personnel decisions. NJ and NY are looking long-term only.
In the West the usual suspects from last year (Spurs, Lakers, Hornets and Jazz) should rule the roost for now, with the Hornets, Blazers, and Sonics with very strong long term outlooks, plus the Jazz, warriors and Lakers are likely to be good and/or rebuild quickly if they slip. Overall the biggest difference is the better run organizations in the West. I think the balance will get closer, but give the strong edge to the West in the short and long terms. The worst organizations are also in the West in Minnesota and memphis. They are essentially a lottery pick feeder system for the good teams.
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