I have been meaning to post on the Iraq war and US strategy for a long time. I've been studying strategy a lot lately (business, economic, foreign policy, etc.)
More and more, I am beginning to think that neither WMDs or oil or Saddam were the real reason underlying reason for going into Iraq. I think it goes much deeper.
It has to do with the strategy tool known as the Nash Equilibrium. Many of you are probably familiar with it. Back in 1991 when Saddam invaded Kuwait, he did so because he did not believe there was a credible threat of retaliation. He chose to attack believing it would offer the greatest payoff, but he was wrong; there was a credible threat in the form of the Coalition.
After the Gulf War, the Coalition imposed sanctions and restrictions on Iraq. And the only way those restrictions would work is if there were a real credible threat of retaliation unless Iraq complied. Well, Saddam decided again that there was no real credible threat. This time was right. He threw the inspectors out, and we lobbed a few cruise missiles. Saddam wins his payoff, we lose A LOT.
On 9/11 we get attacked on our home soil for the first time in a very long time, and things change drastically for a lot of people. Our government adopts a new strategy of proactively destroying enemies and those who harbor them, AND to create democracy in the region of the Middle East as one of the primary weapons against the extremism that fuels fundamentalist terror groups.
The appearance of strength internationally is now the paramount goal of foreign policy. We destroy Afghanistan and turn our eyes to Iraq. This is where the absolute necessity of a credible threat of retaliation comes in to play. In this strategy (whether right or wrong), the US MUST show a credible threat if it wants its strategy to end in a payoff rather than a loss. So, when Iraq chose to not cooperate with UN resolutions (yes, inspectors were there, but they were deliberately impeded), the US was forced to do something about it. Whether the strategy was right or wrong, the only way for the US to come out ahead once it leveled its threats of force was to show that those threats were indeed credible.
Now I'm not saying this was the best strategy to take in the first place. What I'm saying is, that having chosen to level those threats, the only way for the US to reach a positive equilibrium is to back up those threats, to make them credible. In any strategy, the only way to reach an equilibrium that is beneficial to you is to get competitors to understand that to choose the way they would like would cost them more than to choose your way. The only way to accomplish this understanding is to present a credible threat of retaliation if they don't do what you say you will.
I don't like the fact that we're in Iraq right now. But given the strategy our government took to deal with the new threat of terrorism, I don't know what else they could have done. The problem is, I don't know if anyone has thought of a better strategy for us. One that never demanded war would be nice, but I'm not sure such a strategy exists.
Ted
P.S. If you're interested, you should read about the Nash Equilibrium and its implications in economic and political strategy. It makes a lot of sense and is applicable in all kinds of "strategery." As it so happens, the Nash in question is the same guy who recently won the Nobel Prize and is the subject of the movie, A Beautiful Mind.