I think the Spurs championship hopes pretty much start and end with Duncan. When Duncan is playing his game, there's not really any player in the league that is going to do well against him, and everything everyone else does complements him. Anyone else on the Spurs can be taken out of their game, but not Duncan - when he's really geared up and going.
That said, Ginobili has been sensational this year. I have to admit I was skeptical that he'd be what he used to be, and instead, he's shown that he's got even more to give. Most of us knew it was there, but didn't see it as a feature thing, and this year, it has been. That gives the Spurs a very different look, and gives Duncan a very big cushion. But ultimately, for the Spurs to win it all, it will be because Duncan is still the best offensive player in the game in the post.
And despite the trouble I like to give Reality about him, Blair is better than what he's shown so far this season. McDyess is solid, and will be there when it counts, and Hill is starting to pick back up after a dreadful start. Would I take San An over Dallas? Probably not, but that's because I'm really high on Dallas's potential and loaded roster, and different looks that they can throw at you. But you can't dismiss San An.
That said, I still think it's going to be the Lakers coming out of the West. Gasol is having a great year, and as long as the Lakers don't go too far away from him, you're going to get great offense. Bryant and Artest are big and physical for their position, Odom is talented and Bynum is big (when he's healthy), and you've got Fisher and Blake who understand their role. I think than when they play the Lakers, San An will forget that their advantage is Duncan, not Ginobilli or Parker or Jefferson, and ultimately, that will be their undoing. Of course, Kobe could shoot LA out of a series, too, so you never know.
And out of the East, I have Orlando.
