Author Topic: Is Donaghy really 15-2 at picking playoff games due to refs?  (Read 8417 times)

Offline Reality

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http://www.huffingtonpost.com/tim-donaghy/orlando-vs-boston-breakin_b_594441.html
I don't gamble anymore. I'm both in recovery for my own addiction, and I work at Firstep Intervention, owned by Mike Osborne, a gambling treatment facility based in New Jersey. As a former NBA referee, with a story to tell about the crooked officiating in the venerable world of professional basketball, I have observed this years' Playoff Series with interest, and a little fear. In my book, Personal Foul, I created a 'blueprint' off of which most games, and in particular, many particular match-ups, are decided.

This year, to prove my point and with many stern warnings to people who thought they'd use my predictions to place a bet, I used my 'blueprint' to successfully pick the winners in 14 out of 16 games. With 87% accuracy, including having picked the winner of Game 5 of the Boston/Orlando game by 15 points, and having said that after Game 6, Orlando would be dusting off their golf clubs, I believe it's fair to say the 'blueprint' works.  (Reality here, since this article was written he's allegedly won one more, the Flamers over Phoenix Gm 6.)

After every NBA game, each referee is required to review each game and write up a 'deep dive breakdown', a play-by-play analysis of their own performance. A copy of each report is sent immediately to the league office to compare against the report of an independent site observer who also ranks the refs' performances. To illustrate, I watched from start to finish, game 6 of the Boston/Orlando match-up (which I haven't done in three years), and I prepared a 'deep dive breakdown' for your own review. Read for yourself an insider's view of the bad calls, missed calls, and calls that clearly fall within the 'blueprint'. Then I dare you to tell me that the NBA's head office wasn't pulling for Boston...

Also interview with Dan Patrick
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/danpatrick/blog/111801/index.html
DP: Is there a difference in missing a call, or something that should be called, and extending the series.
TD: Well, I can give you another example. How about the 2003 L.A. Lakers and Sacramento game, which I also describe in detail in the book. Certain referees are used in certain situations, and openly discussed that if they were in a Game 5 or a Game 6, they openly favored the team that was down in the series because that's what was best for the league. That's what they were programmed and trained to do. And that's exactly what happened in that series. In my opinion, Sacramento was clearly the best team in the league in 2003, and should have went on to that championship series, and did not because of that Game Six.

DP: But are you saying you were specifically asked to extend that series or was it implied?
TD: When you sit in these meetings, they program and train the referees what to look for and what to let go, and it clearly puts a team like the Lakers in that series at a clear advantage moving forward.

DP: You stand by everything you wrote in that book?
TD: Absolutely, I stand by every word that's in the book. I've had calls and e-mails from owners and players who are excited about the possibility of the NBA now being a true athletic competition and not something where the referees are out there refereeing personalities.

Read More: http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/danpatrick/blog/111801/index.html#ixzz0pfexx626


Offline rickortreat

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Re: Is Donaghy really 15-2 at picking playoff games due to refs?
« Reply #1 on: June 02, 2010, 09:13:36 AM »
That is very damning evidence, and it implies a serious bias in NBA officiating, if the variances allow someone to predivct the outcome before the game begins.

While watching a game we all see the blown calls, the calls that went against the defender when the offensive player initiated contact. and more importantly, the non-calls, like when a player drives the lane, gets hacked and the ball goes out of bounds AND THERE IS NO CALL!

I have always assumed that it was incompetence or the action occurred so quickly that they didn't see it right. After all, we have the advantage of watching the game on television, and we can see the play over and over again in slow motion. One thing that didn't occur to me is that the NBA through it's policies helps to influence or determine the outcome of games through a specific bias.

This only can go so far, no matter how you ref a game if a team like New Jersey last season beat the Lakers, there's no way NJ wins unless the refs make such absurd calls that everyone knows it's a farce. But when teams are as close as the ones who met in the conference finals, it doesn't take too many calls to alter the outcome of a game. The right call at the right time, lie when a team that is down starts to play better, gets a stop or two, but is prevented from converting on the other end because of an offensive foul call, or a  hand reach-in that isn't called and results in a turnover.

Timing is everything in basketball and all teams make runs when they're down, but those runs can be nipped in the bud by the refs, and the opposite is true as well, that a team that is trying to run out to a big lead runs into a succession of 4 or 5 calls that go against them, not necessarily fouls either, but lots of lost possessions as a result of too aggressive defense that is temporarily permitted.

It all comes down to who you believe, unfortunately for the NBA, I believe Donaghy.  The one thing that makes me pause is that he's promoting his book, and has a financial interest. Then again if the book is to be believed so does the NBA, which may not want to see certain teams in the finals because of television revenues.

Offline Reality

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Re: Is Donaghy really 15-2 at picking playoff games due to refs?
« Reply #2 on: June 02, 2010, 09:35:58 AM »
It all comes down to who you believe, unfortunately for the NBA, I believe Donaghy.  The one thing that makes me pause is that he's promoting his book, and has a financial interest. Then again if the book is to be believed so does the NBA, which may not want to see certain teams in the finals because of television revenues.
Stern and the NBA fought tooth and nail to ban the release of his book.
Wonder if the "blue print" he speaks of is in the book?  Or anywhere else to be found.

Offline ziggy

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A third-rate mind is only happy when it is thinking with the majority. A second-rate mind is only happy when it is thinking with the minority. A first-rate mind is only happy when it is thinking.

A quotation is a handy thing to have about, saving one the trouble of thinking for oneself.

AA Mil

Offline Reality

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Re: Is Donaghy really 15-2 at picking playoff games due to refs?
« Reply #4 on: June 04, 2010, 07:50:35 PM »
 :D  Well i know i cashed in on Kobe "Moneybean" Bryant last night.  Any of you?

Donaghy:  "A few things stand out: Kobe is clearly getting different treatment from everyone else."

Whole balanced review of Game 1 by Donaghy here:
http://deadspin.com/5555622/watching-the-watchmen-tim-donaghy-breaks-down-the-officiating-in-game-1

Offline westkoast

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Re: Is Donaghy really 15-2 at picking playoff games due to refs?
« Reply #5 on: June 04, 2010, 09:54:29 PM »
:D  Well i know i cashed in on Kobe "Moneybean" Bryant last night.  Any of you?

Donaghy:  "A few things stand out: Kobe is clearly getting different treatment from everyone else."

Whole balanced review of Game 1 by Donaghy here:
http://deadspin.com/5555622/watching-the-watchmen-tim-donaghy-breaks-down-the-officiating-in-game-1

Yeah.......thats why hes shooting less FTs then any of the other stars in the playoffs?
http://I-Really-Shouldn't-Put-A-Link-To-A-Blog-I-Dont-Even-Update.com

Offline Reality

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Re: Is Donaghy really 15-2 at picking playoff games due to refs?
« Reply #6 on: June 04, 2010, 10:08:18 PM »
# of FTs is hardly the sole indicator of # of bogus calls.  That's basketball 101.
Non shooting fouls, etc.
Read the article.

Also, the Lamers dominated on the boards both ends.  Another key.  Big Baby looks like he is still not out of his concussion funk.  SuperByns def benefitting from the days off.

Offline westkoast

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Re: Is Donaghy really 15-2 at picking playoff games due to refs?
« Reply #7 on: June 04, 2010, 10:42:15 PM »
# of FTs is hardly the sole indicator of # of bogus calls.  That's basketball 101.
Non shooting fouls, etc.
Read the article.

Also, the Lamers dominated on the boards both ends.  Another key.  Big Baby looks like he is still not out of his concussion funk.  SuperByns def benefitting from the days off.

Bottom line if Kobe was getting all the calls in his benefit he would be shooting more than 4 FTs per game in the playoffs.
http://I-Really-Shouldn't-Put-A-Link-To-A-Blog-I-Dont-Even-Update.com

Offline Reality

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Re: Is Donaghy really 15-2 at picking playoff games due to refs?
« Reply #8 on: June 04, 2010, 11:12:48 PM »
You disagree with Dongaghy.  Big surprise.  ::)


Offline westkoast

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Re: Is Donaghy really 15-2 at picking playoff games due to refs?
« Reply #9 on: June 05, 2010, 01:51:45 AM »
You disagree with Dongaghy.  Big surprise.  ::)



Big surprise you agree with Dongaghy because it involves Kobe but completely want to ignore one of your favorite stats of all time to bring up.....FT shooting.

1.    Dwight Howard-ORL    158
2.    Amare Stoudemire-PHO    142
3.    Kobe Bryant-LAL    133
4.    LeBron James-CLE    120
5.    Paul Pierce-BOS    118
6.    Deron Williams-UTA    111
7.    Pau Gasol-LAL    107
8.    Rajon Rondo-BOS    99
9.    Steve Nash-PHO    75
10.    Vince Carter-ORL

Lebron James has been out of the playoffs for 2 rounds now and Kobe just passed him in the last 2 games.  Deron Williams, who played 10 games in the playoffs (i believe), has 111 free throw attempts.  Now if Kobe was getting all the calls this playoffs, wouldn't he have more than 13 free throws than Lebron James even though he has played SEVEN more games than he has?  Shouldn't he have more than a 15 free throw advantage over Paul Pierce?  Kobe is leading the league in FGs and FG attempts in the playoffs so its not like he isn't shooting or trying to get into the paint.  Explain to me how a guy who has the most FG attempts in the league for the playoffs is NOT leading the league in FT attempts yet he is suppose to be 'getting all the calls'

Why did Dongaghy bring up Kobe?  Because hes still in the playoffs and no one would care if he said a player who had been bounced out.  Sadly, no one really cares about Paul Pierce like that across the board.




« Last Edit: June 05, 2010, 02:02:46 AM by westkoast »
http://I-Really-Shouldn't-Put-A-Link-To-A-Blog-I-Dont-Even-Update.com

Offline Reality

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Re: Is Donaghy really 15-2 at picking playoff games due to refs?
« Reply #10 on: June 06, 2010, 10:43:49 PM »
Donaghy directly from his Facebook site on Game 2:  WOW, Kobe Bryant sure didn't get the "STAR TREATMENT" he received in game 1. Things should really heat up in Boston. I am sure Phil Jackson will be on the phone with the NBA league office before he hits the pillow!

Offline Joe Vancil

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Re: Is Donaghy really 15-2 at picking playoff games due to refs?
« Reply #11 on: June 07, 2010, 02:54:34 AM »
You know, this is exactly what the NBA didn't want - Donaghy coming out reviewing games afterward, each time, building upon the idea that the series may be decided so as to make for good drama rather than fair basketball.

What happens when one of the TV networks picks up Donaghy?

Stern promised us more transparency.  We haven't gotten it from him.  That's a hanging curveball for Donaghy.

Fact is that at this point, Donaghy makes for commentary for people who like watching train wrecks.  Those who believe him can watch the NBA, listen to Donaghy, and say, "See?", and those who don't will just ignore what he's saying.  At this point, you have to ask if Donaghy might have found a way to cash in on what many have believed for a long time - that the officiating isn't just bad, it's corrupt.

And one has to wonder if the interest outweighs the cost.  Has the NBA just decided to go the conception that the refs are crooked?  Say nothing, comment no more, and let the chips fall where they may?

The Donaghy storm caused *FAR* *TOO* *LITTLE* real change for a revelation of its magnitude.  That, to me, indicates there's more truth to what he said than some have given him credit for.
Joe

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Offline Reality

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Re: Is Donaghy really 15-2 at picking playoff games due to refs?
« Reply #12 on: June 07, 2010, 07:59:06 AM »
^^ Yep, got to wonder Joe if its Jose Conseco all over again.

Offline Reality

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Re: Is Donaghy really 15-2 at picking playoff games due to refs?
« Reply #13 on: June 08, 2010, 10:09:38 AM »
Donaghy on Gm 2s Boston win:
A lot of strange moments in this one, but the main takeaway is that Kobe Bryant didn't get the star treatment calls in Game 2 that he got in Game 1.
http://deadspin.com/5557203/tim-donaghy-on-the-refs-in-game-2-what-star-treatment

Offline Reality

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Re: Is Donaghy really 15-2 at picking playoff games due to refs?
« Reply #14 on: June 09, 2010, 07:54:13 AM »