the 20 least effective NBA players this season after 41 games

[ziggy]

This is based upon Win Shares.  I will post the top 25 players later.


Only players included are those who have played a minimum of 27 games (67% of the games), and a minimum of 20 minutes per game.  That made for 195 eligible players.  (sorry I wish I could display a table better, but I don't know how).

Most surprising player is Thaddeus Young.  My son has him on his fantasy team and has complained regularly about him.  he has played 41 games at 34 minutes a game, and he is on pace to produce -2.5 wins or 2.5 losses.

I have never thought Corey Brewer was a very effective player, so this is not a surprise to me.  I can give Jonny Flynn a break being a rookie PG.  Overall 64% of Minnesota's minutes have gone to 7 players (Brewer, Hollins, Flynn, Gomes, Sessions, Pavolvic, Cardinal), and those 7 players have produced -4.8 wins using this methodology.  That is horrible.

Other players who play significant roles are Boris Diaw, Al Thornton, Al Harrington, Mehmet Okur, JR Smith, and Roy Hibbert.  Roy Hibbert is 7-2 280 lbs, and is playing 24 minutes a game, while grabbing a whopping 5.8 rebounds a game.  Since mid-November he has played 31 games, and had 10 or more rebounds twice.  That is pathetic.

Rank   Player   Team   Games   Min/Game   Minutes   WP48   Wins Produced
1   Corey Brewer   Minnesota   41   31   1,261   -0.055   -1.4
2   Dahntay Jones   Indiana   40   29   1,142   -0.06   -1.4
3   Thaddeus Young   Philadelphia   41   34   1,413   -0.043   -1.3
4   Jonny Flynn   Minnesota   41   30   1,211   -0.051   -1.3
5   Al Thornton   LA Clippers   39   30   1,159   -0.046   -1.1
6   Rafer Alston   New Jersey   27   28   766   -0.071   -1.1
7   Andres Nocioni   Sacramento   40   22   862   -0.058   -1
8   Terrence Williams   New Jersey   38   20   754   -0.059   -0.9
9   Brad Miller   Chicago   41   21   843   -0.045   -0.8
10   Vladimir Radmanovic   Golden State   28   25   707   -0.048   -0.7
11   Boris Diaw   Charlotte   41   35   1,422   -0.016   -0.5
12   Al Harrington   New York   39   31   1,193   -0.014   -0.4
13   Spencer Hawes   Sacramento   40   27   1,070   -0.014   -0.3
14   Zydrunas Ilgauskas   Cleveland   40   21   855   -0.012   -0.2
15   Mehmet Okur   Utah   37   29   1,081   -0.005   -0.1
16   Ronald Murray   Charlotte   35   21   728   -0.007   -0.1
17   J.R. Smith   Denver   34   28   941   0.001   0
18   Nenad Krstic   Oklahoma City   39   23   885   0   0
19   Derek Fisher   LA Lakers   41   27   1,102   0.004   0.1
20   Roy Hibbert   Indiana   41   24   969   0.007   0.1

[jn]

I just assumed the first 12 players would be the Wolves roster.

[Lurker]

I can't believe there are only 2 Nets in the top 20.

[jn]

I was thinking the same thing Lurker.  The two that surprise me most are Big Z and Nocioni.

[Joe Vancil]

I've been complaining about Okur, who's on my Fantasy team, all year long.  He's really been bad this year.  But he's finally starting to do some damage lately, now that Boozer may be out.

[rickortreat]

Is Thad Young a bad defensive player, or a player being played out of position.  He's 6'8" and 220 lbs. and 22 years old. He should be playing small forward where he wouldn't be over-matched physically.  But in Philadelphia, where we seem to have a penchant for picking seriously deficient coaches, he's being played almost exclusively at the 4 spot.

I think Thad is getting a bad rap because he can't defend bigger players in the post.  I don't think that's his fault. I think his coach is a moron.

[Derek Bodner]

he's actually 21 (will be the entire season).

[westkoast]

Is Thad Young a bad defensive player, or a player being played out of position.  He's 6'8" and 220 lbs. and 22 years old. He should be playing small forward where he wouldn't be over-matched physically.  But in Philadelphia, where we seem to have a penchant for picking seriously deficient coaches, he's being played almost exclusively at the 4 spot.

I think Thad is getting a bad rap because he can't defend bigger players in the post.  I don't think that's his fault. I think his coach is a moron.

So what about a guy like Rose who was the same size yet was playing centers? 

[rickortreat]

Is Thad Young a bad defensive player, or a player being played out of position.  He's 6'8" and 220 lbs. and 22 years old. He should be playing small forward where he wouldn't be over-matched physically.  But in Philadelphia, where we seem to have a penchant for picking seriously deficient coaches, he's being played almost exclusively at the 4 spot.

I think Thad is getting a bad rap because he can't defend bigger players in the post.  I don't think that's his fault. I think his coach is a moron.

So what about a guy like Rose who was the same size yet was playing centers? 

Rose weighed a lot more than Thad. Thad is a skinny kid, who will eventually fill out (Probably) Rose was stocky and very strong. I think like 260 or so. Maybe in 5 or 6 years Thad will fill out enough to guard these bigs, but why should the Sixers do that when they have a seven-footer and two 6-11 guys to guard them instead?  Some players, like LeBron and Barkley were shorter players who could go inside because they were wide-bodies. Skinny players like Thad can't bull their way in, or keep a bull out.

Besides it's good for the Sixers IMO, to have a size advantage. It's stupid to expect Thad to guard Gasol or Bynum. He can't even handle Odom!

[westkoast]

Is Thad Young a bad defensive player, or a player being played out of position.  He's 6'8" and 220 lbs. and 22 years old. He should be playing small forward where he wouldn't be over-matched physically.  But in Philadelphia, where we seem to have a penchant for picking seriously deficient coaches, he's being played almost exclusively at the 4 spot.

I think Thad is getting a bad rap because he can't defend bigger players in the post.  I don't think that's his fault. I think his coach is a moron.

So what about a guy like Rose who was the same size yet was playing centers? 

Rose weighed a lot more than Thad. Thad is a skinny kid, who will eventually fill out (Probably) Rose was stocky and very strong. I think like 260 or so. Maybe in 5 or 6 years Thad will fill out enough to guard these bigs, but why should the Sixers do that when they have a seven-footer and two 6-11 guys to guard them instead?  Some players, like LeBron and Barkley were shorter players who could go inside because they were wide-bodies. Skinny players like Thad can't bull their way in, or keep a bull out.

Besides it's good for the Sixers IMO, to have a size advantage. It's stupid to expect Thad to guard Gasol or Bynum. He can't even handle Odom!

He is 30 pounds heavier than Thad but is shorter and has a much smaller wing span.  There are not many power forwards in this league who are very strong and can bully around people.  Gasol and Odom certainly are not the type to use their strength go get into position.  Gasol is stick skinny and so is Odom.  They use their foot work and speed to score.  The days of Duncan and Barkley big men are over IMO.  What power forwards are so strong that they can move him with ease?  I see more KG, Gasol. Dirk types than I do Barkley types.

[ziggy]

Lurker, JN,
Part of the lack of NJ data is that I set a limit of 27 games and 20 minutes per game, so some would not necessarily show on the bottom 25 list because they didn't have the minutes.

Here is the NJ only data

Brook Lopez   New Jersey   41   36   1,490   0.141   4.4      41   8.8
Josh Boone   New Jersey   35   19   673   0.104   1.5      22   2.9
Courtney Lee   New Jersey   34   33   1,113   0.053   1.2      29   2.4
Trenton Hassell   New Jersey   34   24   813   0.033   0.6      19   1.1
Devin Harris   New Jersey   30   34   1,023   0.028   0.6      27   1.2
Kris Humphries   New Jersey   4   24   96   0.238   0.5      0   1
Chris Douglas-Roberts   New Jersey   32   35   1,112   0.016   0.4      30   0.7
Yi Jianlian   New Jersey   17   34   581   0.014   0.2      16   0.3
Keyon Dooling   New Jersey   17   18   304   -0.017   -0.1      1   -0.2
Chris Quinn   New Jersey   6   6   36   -0.208   -0.2      0   -0.3
Jarvis Hayes   New Jersey   9   17   149   -0.143   -0.4      0   -0.9
Eduardo Najera   New Jersey   13   16   204   -0.095   -0.4      2   -0.8
Tony Battie   New Jersey   11   9   104   -0.234   -0.5      0   -1
Sean Williams   New Jersey   20   11   227   -0.117   -0.6      0   -1.1
Bobby Simmons   New Jersey   23   17   395   -0.092   -0.8      2   -1.5
Terrence Williams   New Jersey   38   20   754   -0.059   -0.9      3   -1.9
Rafer Alston   New Jersey   27   28   766   -0.071   -1.1      13   -2.3


Here is all the Minnesota data
Kevin Love   Minnesota   23   31   718   0.431   6.4      19   12.9
Al Jefferson   Minnesota   39   34   1,313   0.111   3      39   6.1
Damien Wilkins   Minnesota   40   21   831   0.138   2.4      25   4.8
Ramon Sessions   Minnesota   41   21   871   0.049   0.9      0   1.8
Ryan Gomes   Minnesota   35   28   967   0.018   0.4      24   0.7
Nathan Jawai   Minnesota   32   11   361   0.043   0.3      2   0.6
Wayne Ellington   Minnesota   39   18   706   0.016   0.2      1   0.5
Jason Hart   Minnesota   1   5   5   0.033   0      0   0
Oleksiy Pecherov   Minnesota   30   12   360   -0.047   -0.4      5   -0.7
Brian Cardinal   Minnesota   20   9   176   -0.174   -0.6      0   -1.3
Sasha Pavlovic   Minnesota   38   14   526   -0.072   -0.8      0   -1.6
Jonny Flynn   Minnesota   41   30   1,211   -0.051   -1.3      41   -2.6
Corey Brewer   Minnesota   41   31   1,261   -0.055   -1.4      41   -2.9
Ryan Hollins   Minnesota   35   17   610   -0.148   -1.9      8   -3.8

[rickortreat]

Is Thad Young a bad defensive player, or a player being played out of position.  He's 6'8" and 220 lbs. and 22 years old. He should be playing small forward where he wouldn't be over-matched physically.  But in Philadelphia, where we seem to have a penchant for picking seriously deficient coaches, he's being played almost exclusively at the 4 spot.

I think Thad is getting a bad rap because he can't defend bigger players in the post.  I don't think that's his fault. I think his coach is a moron.

So what about a guy like Rose who was the same size yet was playing centers? 

Rose weighed a lot more than Thad. Thad is a skinny kid, who will eventually fill out (Probably) Rose was stocky and very strong. I think like 260 or so. Maybe in 5 or 6 years Thad will fill out enough to guard these bigs, but why should the Sixers do that when they have a seven-footer and two 6-11 guys to guard them instead?  Some players, like LeBron and Barkley were shorter players who could go inside because they were wide-bodies. Skinny players like Thad can't bull their way in, or keep a bull out.

Besides it's good for the Sixers IMO, to have a size advantage. It's stupid to expect Thad to guard Gasol or Bynum. He can't even handle Odom!

He is 30 pounds heavier than Thad but is shorter and has a much smaller wing span.  There are not many power forwards in this league who are very strong and can bully around people.  Gasol and Odom certainly are not the type to use their strength go get into position.  Gasol is stick skinny and so is Odom.  They use their foot work and speed to score.  The days of Duncan and Barkley big men are over IMO.  What power forwards are so strong that they can move him with ease?  I see more KG, Gasol. Dirk types than I do Barkley types.

I thought he was the same height, 6'8" and 250 is a lot bigger than 220!   If we had a time machine- who would win between Rose and Young? Rose would keep him from going inside and from getting boards. Thad is quicker and faster, but he has to be in the open floor to use his advantages.

Every good team in the league has 2 big men in at all times, the Lakers, Cavaliers and Celtics are all big teams.  The Sixers are already short, since they have Elton Brand for their power forward. It makes sense to play Thad as a three because he can't guard a Garnett or Perkins. He can't guard a Shaq or a Bynum or a Gasol. If the Sixers are going to be competitive they have to match up well with the better teams. The closest player in size to Young is Tayshaun Prince. Would you play Prince as a 4?

The only thing worse than not having good big men, is having a dumb-ass coach who doesn't play them! The Sixers have three big men on their bench, two of whom are 2nd year players who show potential when they play. If the Sixers have any chance of competing they need to get bigger and they need to have a more effective offense. Clearly, the two go hand in hand. As does moving Thad to the three spot, and Iguodala to the 2.

It's not like the Sixers were winning with Thad at the 4 spot. If they were, I wouldn't think it was a problem, but how many times do you need to see the other team getting 2nd chance shots and you aren't getting any on your end before you realize you don't have enough rebounding strength? It only has to happen a couple of times a game and that's all it takes for the team to lose and for Thad to have his stats show up on the list! 


What could be more simpler or easier for the Sixers than to play him as a three, and giving the other bigs the available minutes. The Sixers are guard oriented, because they're comfortable with Iverson, Williams, Green and Holiday. I understand that, but I also see that they're not winning. Just that one little change and the Sixers entire season would look completely different.