ESPN Insider....all decline team

[jemagee]

What is a "key" defensive play?  Why do people have a hard time understanding that a missed FT or TO means just as much in the first minute of the first quarter as they do in the last minute of the 4th?

For the same reason people continue to believe things like 'clutch' exist and certain players raise their game at certain points of the game (the counter point of course being they play the rest of the game at a lower level than they are possible?)

Same reason people think games that are lost late in the season are worth 'more' than losses early in the season (whereas - if you think about it - they less impact on winning percentage later in the season )

[Derek Bodner]

For the same reason people continue to believe things like 'clutch' exist and certain players raise their game at certain points of the game (the counter point of course being they play the rest of the game at a lower level than they are possible?)

Clutch is not about raising your game.  It's about not losing your composure among pressure.  It's about not dropping your game, which is the common reaction to pressure.

I believe in clutch.  What I don't believe is that there is a good way (currently) to measure it.  As much as it drives me crazy when people use one instance to determine clutch, it drives me equally insane to see people throw the mental aspect of sports out completely.

[westkoast]

For the same reason people continue to believe things like 'clutch' exist and certain players raise their game at certain points of the game (the counter point of course being they play the rest of the game at a lower level than they are possible?)

Clutch is not about raising your game.  It's about not losing your composure among pressure.  It's about not dropping your game, which is the common reaction to pressure.

I believe in clutch.  What I don't believe is that there is a good way (currently) to measure it.  As much as it drives me crazy when people use one instance to determine clutch, it drives me equally insane to see people throw the mental aspect of sports out completely.

I don't know if there would ever be a good way to measure it to be honest.  There would be too many variables.  Though at the same time there are some really interesting break downs using numbers.  Ziggy has really opened my eyes to some of it over the years.

[jemagee]

I don't 'throw away' the mental aspect of the game, I believe it exists, I believe Cole Hamels is suffering from Carrscoitis and should stop throwing his curve ball - I believe that Brad Lidge has no faith in his control of his slider and thus THATS why he can't throw it when there's a man on 3rd base, cause he has no idea where it's going.

I don't buy the argument that players who are 'clutch' are only clutch near the end of a game, I believe that players who are 'clutch' at the end of the game are also clutch in the first quarter with a 10 point lead - I don't believe said players raise their game, I just believe their accomplishments become more memorable to fans and media because of the 'intensity of the moment'

Football outsides recently did a study of current NFL quarterbacks who are supposedly 'clutch' in 4th quarter comebacks, and aside from one really big outlier on each side (eli manning to the good and donovan mcnabb to the bad) - what their numbers showed is that QB's who perform well in the 'clutch' don't really have better numbers outside the clutch than inside the clutch.

I believe in a mental aspect, never said I didn't, I just don't believe these great clutch players play at a 'lower level' for most of the game and then raise their game - i believe they play at that high level for the entirety of their performance and that the 'clutch' moments are just more memorable.

[Derek Bodner]

I believe in a mental aspect, never said I didn't, I just don't believe these great clutch players play at a 'lower level' for most of the game and then raise their game - i believe they play at that high level for the entirety of their performance and that the 'clutch' moments are just more memorable.

Why are we arguing a point I didn't make?

Did you read my post?

Let me re-post.

Clutch is not about raising your game.  It's about not losing your composure among pressure.  It's about not dropping your game, which is the common reaction to pressure.

Do you want to debate that?  Or do you want to just use it as an opportunity to go on a rant?

A clutch player is not a player who takes it easy for innings 1-8 and plays his best in the 9th.  A clutch player is one who is able to maintain his high level of play and concentration during "clutch" (RE: pressured, mentally) situations.

[rickortreat]

I agree that, clutch players make those plays all the time, even when the "pressure" is greatest. No one is disputing that. And, therein lies the problem; "pressure" is subjective. When you are watching a game sometimes you see a crucial play that changes the game. The team leading the game sees their lead dwindle and the other team take over, all because of that one momentum swinging play.  To me that is just as much a "clutch" situation as a game winning shot.  Same thing is true with defense, as that often a blocked shot or a called third strike is a momentum changer. We all know some plays are bigger than others and recognize them when they happen, but we also know that the basket and the ball are the same as they always are, and a good shot still goes in.

Something like that doesn't show up in raw numbers, there are lots of guys who put up points but no one even notices them. Raw numbers don't take context into account. When someone makes 4 or 5 shots in a row and shoots his team back into a game is just as clutch shooting the first one as the 5th one. That's a big time player, even if he's not the one you give the ball to at the end when you need a bucket.  You have to define "clutch situations" and then give them specific weighting based on altering the outcome of a game. Once we all agree on the criteria with specific things having to occur for the situation to be "clutch" we can then do a better analysis and adding to the argument of who the best players really are.

[Joe Vancil]

Well, let me be the dissenter, because I *DO* believe in "clutch."  I believe that some players rise to a moment - that while their contributions are steadily good, in the proper moment, at the time when the game is to be decided, they make the momentum play - the play that shifts the game.  Those momentum plays are, to me, what define clutch.

Too many folks look at clutch as the "last x seconds of a close game."  To me, that constitutes an invalid look at clutch.  You're looking at a performance across a time, rather than the making of the "one or two big plays that change the game."

Those of you who've played know what I'm talking about;  you've been in that situation where your team is down, you're starting to fight back, and then, all of a sudden, there's "that guy" - he catches the ball, and you think to yourself as he's shooting, "Oh no.  Not like that.  We can't give *THAT* up."  You feel your heart sink as the shot goes up, and when it comes down - and drops in - you're completely deflated.  And you knew what was happening the minute he touched the ball.  And you knew it was going in from the moment he released it.  Maybe it's early in the game, but it's the play that just completely takes the wind out of your sails.  And over and over and over again, when you deal with that particular player, you find him making that critical play - over and over and over and over again.

And here's why that's NEVER going to show up in the studies:  1)  it happens at different times throughout the game, 2) studies measure performance at defined times, and compare that against times that "aren't" that, but they fail to look and see the PERCENTAGE of times the player in question is involved in the plays across the two, 3) there is a huge mental component to this, not only on the part of the player in question, but on the part of his opponents, and 4) even BROKEN plays can sap the strength of an opponent (i.e. even though the player missed the shot, the very fact that he got it triggers the belief - which becomes self-fulfilling prophecy - with the opponent that they've lost the game).

If I had to define clutch, I'd define it this way:  the propensity of a play by the particular player to reshape belief of team and opponent that the eventual outcome is now decided (in favor of the player's team) when previously it had not been.  In other words, the ability to deflate the opponent at the game-deciding juncture.

[jemagee]

Plus there's the concept of small sample size.

My problem is - if they can step up at that moment - why don't they just play at that level the entire game?

[westkoast]

Plus there's the concept of small sample size.

My problem is - if they can step up at that moment - why don't they just play at that level the entire game?

Sometimes the situations do not arise for them to do so.  For example if Kevin Garnett makes a big time block down the stretch it is possible that prior to that he was not close enough to provide that help defense previously.   Trevor Ariza didn't steal the ball every time Denver took it out because the passes were not off enough for him to do so.  When they did it just happened to be in crunch time. 

A number of the players people would define as clutch such as Lebron James, Kobe Bryant, and Carmelo Anthony do play at a high level the entire game.

[jemagee]

Well that's not the same - they aren't making plays they could have made earlier in the game, based on your examples, they're making plays they'd usually make if the opportunities present themselves...to me that's a different can of worms.

A number of the players people would define as clutch such as Lebron James, Kobe Bryant, and Carmelo Anthony do play at a high level the entire game.

Right - they play at the same level the ENTIRE game, and thus what is 'clutch' about their performance that isn't clutch at other times in the same game aside from the perception of the importance of that moment?

[Joe Vancil]

And my take is more akin to the "small sample size" that jem mentioned.

And as for the Ariza example:  Does Ariza get that same steal if he's in the first quarter?  Maybe - maybe not.  Perhaps the adrenaline flowing, the feeling of pressure on him, a heightened sense of alertness - subtle physical and psychological changes - mean he gets that steal in the crucial moment but doesn't at the beginning of the game.

It's well established that not everyone reacts the same way under pressure off the court;  why is it such a leap to assume that not everyone reacts to pressure the same way ON the court?

[westkoast]

Right - they play at the same level the ENTIRE game, and thus what is 'clutch' about their performance that isn't clutch at other times in the same game aside from the perception of the importance of that moment?

  Perhaps the adrenaline flowing, the feeling of pressure on him, a heightened sense of alertness - subtle physical and psychological changes -

Jem, this about sums up why it's different when Lebron makes a jumper 2 minutes into the 1st quarter than when he does with 2 minutes go go in the 4th.  Players, unlike numbers, are aware that not every shot is equal.  A shot in a key part of the game (whether thats 2 minutes before the game ends or in the midst of a huge comback at the end of the 3rd) is going to put more pressure on a player no matter what.  Even if they play at a high level that shot is not going to be handled the same mentally.

On top of that if you've been battling for an entire game and you are being asked to strap the team on your back at the very end you could argue that it's also physically more demanding to have to push yourself just an inch farther to take care of business.   Maybe that is using the last bit of your energy to force a scorer to miss a shot that could tie up the game or you yourself have to make the shot to tie it.

[Derek Bodner]

Yeah, I honestly can't see how it's even a question.  I can understand the difficulty in measuring clutch, but for someone to deny the psychological impact of pressure situations (both positively and negatively) I can only surmise has never been in that situation.  It's the perfect example of things pure stat-heads just don't get, and want to spend their time denying because they don't get it.  Adrenalin CAN cause a player to raise his game to peaks he doesn't reach in the first quarter, and pressure CAN make a shot/play more difficult.

I mean, this isn't voodoo magic we're talking about.  Adrenaline's ability to boost oxygen levels in the brain and muscles (as well as other actions) is very well documented.

[Lurker]

Joe & jem...is Shaq a clutch player?  Is Howard a clutch player?  Maybe defensively but offensively would you want the ball in their hands or with another playmaker on their team?

I see "clutch" as being the person that you want to controll the ball in that "we-just-have-to-have-a-basket-NOW" possession regardless of the game clock. Most people don't think about "clutch" in terms of defense.  Even the best defenders are seldom referred to as clutch.

It is easy to pick examples but it is harder to define.

[jemagee]

I see "clutch" as being the person that you want to controll the ball in that "we-just-have-to-have-a-basket-NOW" possession regardless of the game clock. Most people don't think about "clutch" in terms of defense.  Even the best defenders are seldom referred to as clutch.

Except that you can have clutch defensive plays, someone mentioned a block from Garnett...so if you believe in clutch - don't you have to believe in it at both ends of the court?  Your team just made the go ahead basket and someone 'shuts down' the star player on the other team -  forcing a low percentage shot or a turnover - that's a clutch defensive play - I think if you believe in clutch you have to believe in it both ends of the court...you gotta believe there are guys you want on the court defensively at the end of the game as much as the guy you want taking the shot (And no eddie jordan, it's not Royal Ivery or Lou Williams when Jrue Holliday is available)