Predictions/Discussions for the Magic series

[DuckyNinja]

O/U:
5.5 games played
94.5 ppg scored for the Sixers
104.5 ppg scored for the Magic
2.5 3PM for the Sixers
7.5 3PM for the Magic
35% shooting for Andre Iguodala
19.9 ppg for Thad
Sixers win the series

I'm going with:
Over
Over
Under
Over
Under
Over
Over
Hell no, but I'll root for em anyway!

[DuckyNinja]

So uh, when your team is releasing headlines like "the two guys we have that can really kill the other team might be able to play", you're probably in trouble.

http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/playoffs/2009/news?id=4074296

It's very possible that pulling out that win in Cleveland, no matter how ugly, could punch our ticket to the second round and a matchup with the Garnett-less Celtics or I guess potentially the Bulls.  We need to jump on them early, get them demoralized, and step on their throats.

We can do that, right?

...shit.

[rickortreat]

The Magic are beatable, but the Sixers haven't figured out a way this season. Whenever I think of teams that are a matchup problem for the Sixers, I think of the Magic and their style of play. With injuried to two of their starters, however, the Sixers may have a chance after all.

One thing the Sixers do have going for them is youth and athleticism. A short-handed magic team might be run into the ground.  The only player the Sixers don't have an answer for is Dwight, but he isn't a huge scorer for them anyway. I like Iguodala and Young over Turkogulo and Lewis.  I also think Miller is a better player than Alston.

It's a matter of which team can force the other one out of their comfort zone on offense. Orlando doesn't have great one on one players, but they can all spot up and shoot. if the Sixers can avoid switching and play their men straight up and not help, they should be able to get stops.

On offense, if Young continues to play as he has, I think the Sixers are unstoppable, provided Dileo manages the team properly.  With Iguodala and Young in the lineup the Sixers are very difficult to defend. They can both shoot from the outside and drive the lane and finish.  They will draw extra defenders and there should always be an open man. I was hoping to see something of a post-up offense, but they rarely gave Speights the chance.  In fairness, he is a little too weak and gets pushed around by other players. On the other hand, he has the moves, and is able to convert at the line as well.

It's no secret that when he is in the game, Iguodala and Young both start looking to pass as well. The Sixers seem to have a shortage of players willing to simply spot up and make shots. I would have liked to have seen more of Donyell at the end of the season, to finally put the whole offense together, but the Sixers coaching staff seems clueless.  It's frustrating when it appears they have the pieces but don't put them together, or keep them on the floor very long.

With Miller, Iguodala and Young all putting up 20+ the Sixers should be close.  They will obviously need scoring from Williams, Green and Speights, plus some three's from Marshall. They can do that, but probably not enough times to win the series. Unless the Sixers can jump on them early and steal a game there, Orlando will take them out in 5 or 6.

[RickyPryor]

The Magic are beatable, but the Sixers haven't figured out a way this season. Whenever I think of teams that are a matchup problem for the Sixers, I think of the Magic and their style of play. With injuried to two of their starters, however, the Sixers may have a chance after all.

One thing the Sixers do have going for them is youth and athleticism. A short-handed magic team might be run into the ground.  The only player the Sixers don't have an answer for is Dwight, but he isn't a huge scorer for them anyway. I like Iguodala and Young over Turkogulo and Lewis.  I also think Miller is a better player than Alston.

It's a matter of which team can force the other one out of their comfort zone on offense. Orlando doesn't have great one on one players, but they can all spot up and shoot. if the Sixers can avoid switching and play their men straight up and not help, they should be able to get stops.

On offense, if Young continues to play as he has, I think the Sixers are unstoppable, provided Dileo manages the team properly.  With Iguodala and Young in the lineup the Sixers are very difficult to defend. They can both shoot from the outside and drive the lane and finish.  They will draw extra defenders and there should always be an open man. I was hoping to see something of a post-up offense, but they rarely gave Speights the chance.  In fairness, he is a little too weak and gets pushed around by other players. On the other hand, he has the moves, and is able to convert at the line as well.

It's no secret that when he is in the game, Iguodala and Young both start looking to pass as well. The Sixers seem to have a shortage of players willing to simply spot up and make shots. I would have liked to have seen more of Donyell at the end of the season, to finally put the whole offense together, but the Sixers coaching staff seems clueless.  It's frustrating when it appears they have the pieces but don't put them together, or keep them on the floor very long.

With Miller, Iguodala and Young all putting up 20+ the Sixers should be close.  They will obviously need scoring from Williams, Green and Speights, plus some three's from Marshall. They can do that, but probably not enough times to win the series. Unless the Sixers can jump on them early and steal a game there, Orlando will take them out in 5 or 6.

I agree with some of this, especially the part about using our "athleticism".  But my take on it would be to use that attribute for the purposes of good defense.  These guys shoot well, especially from downtown.  We need to get out (and stay out) on them outside.  And while I know the goal is to try to play smash-mouth with Howard...for me, that means deny, deny, deny.  That way there's less need for our 'd' to sag...thereby leaving the oputside guys open.

Howard is the guy you want to play agressively, and so our combo of Sam, Reggie and Theo (and their 18 fouls between them) should be rotated constantly.  Put that fella on the line; let him shoot his 59% from there instead of from 2 feet.

I also wouldn't mind seeing him in foul trouble for a couple of these games.  We don't have the low post guy for that...but we do have slashers like LWill, Iggy and Miller.  Go at him.

[DuckyNinja]

I agree with most of your post, but one thing I really disagree with is your assessment of how the coaching staff has handled lineups.  When Speights is in the game, everybody looks for him simply because he has a knack for getting open, even if he doesn't always hit.  Him and Lou work very well together.  We don't need Marshall in that lineup because Speights is the spot-up shooter in it.  I'm perfectly okay not seeing Marshall.  He's not good enough defensively to justify using him unless we desperately need 3s.

And Ricky, I actually fully agree with you.  I think that's a first.  And in case you're wondering, last time we faced them, Howard went for 12 and 8 in 33 minutes and fouled out.

[Reality]

Rashard Lewis and TurkeyGlue out?
Seize the moment 6ers!!

Then a KGless Boston possibility?
Wow.

[RickyPryor]

The problem with my take is that Sam is a terrible deny defender.  He often waits at 3 feet for his man to arrive to HIM...instead of meeting him at 8-9 feet and keeping him there.  He's gotten better, but not good enough. 

Reggie is best at this articular skill...but not nearly tall enough to be effective in this regard over substantial minutes.  Theo is the best low-post man defender on the team...so maybe we'll see his minutes increase for this series.  But we won't win if we have to rely on Theo being our featured center.

I agree with most of your post, but one thing I really disagree with is your assessment of how the coaching staff has handled lineups.  When Speights is in the game, everybody looks for him simply because he has a knack for getting open, even if he doesn't always hit.  Him and Lou work very well together.  We don't need Marshall in that lineup because Speights is the spot-up shooter in it.  I'm perfectly okay not seeing Marshall.  He's not good enough defensively to justify using him unless we desperately need 3s.

And Ricky, I actually fully agree with you.  I think that's a first.  And in case you're wondering, last time we faced them, Howard went for 12 and 8 in 33 minutes and fouled out.

[WayOutWest]

Howard is the guy you want to play agressively, and so our combo of Sam, Reggie and Theo (and their 18 fouls between them) should be rotated constantly.  Put that fella on the line; let him shoot his 59% from there instead of from 2 feet.

Howard is shooting 57% from the field so you are actually worse off putting him on the line.  As long as a guy shots 50% from the FT line you are not going to beat him by putting him on the line.  This point has been argued to death with Shaq and his FT woes.  There are situations where it makes sense to put a guy on the line when he typically only makes half his FT's but as a game/series strategy it will not work, the percentages and some basic math will bear out.  Fouling a guy consistently also allows the guy to get into a rythm and lets the other teams defense set up.

IMO you pull a Bill Russell/Phil Jackson on the Magic to beat them.  Play Dwight strait up and hope you can keep it close.  Stay at home on the shooters all game long until the closing minutes then start to double/triple team Dwight and force the Magic shooters to win the game.  Russell used to do it Wilt and PJ used to do it to Tim Duncan.  Play them one way early then switch it up late in the game.  PJ used to do the reverse to TD as well, he would double/triple TD then in the closing minutes he would let Shaq play TD strait up.  I don't know if the Sixers have someone who can play Dwight as well as Shaq played TD but that's another curve ball you can throw at the Magic.  Dwight is not playoff tested, nor is he considered a critical possesion guy because of his FT shooting.

[Skates]

Howard is the guy you want to play agressively, and so our combo of Sam, Reggie and Theo (and their 18 fouls between them) should be rotated constantly.  Put that fella on the line; let him shoot his 59% from there instead of from 2 feet.

Howard is shooting 57% from the field so you are actually worse off putting him on the line.  As long as a guy shots 50% from the FT line you are not going to beat him by putting him on the line.  This point has been argued to death with Shaq and his FT woes.  There are situations where it makes sense to put a guy on the line when he typically only makes half his FT's but as a game/series strategy it will not work, the percentages and some basic math will bear out.  Fouling a guy consistently also allows the guy to get into a rythm and lets the other teams defense set up.

IMO you pull a Bill Russell/Phil Jackson on the Magic to beat them.  Play Dwight strait up and hope you can keep it close.  Stay at home on the shooters all game long until the closing minutes then start to double/triple team Dwight and force the Magic shooters to win the game.  Russell used to do it Wilt and PJ used to do it to Tim Duncan.  Play them one way early then switch it up late in the game.  PJ used to do the reverse to TD as well, he would double/triple TD then in the closing minutes he would let Shaq play TD strait up.  I don't know if the Sixers have someone who can play Dwight as well as Shaq played TD but that's another curve ball you can throw at the Magic.  Dwight is not playoff tested, nor is he considered a critical possesion guy because of his FT shooting.

It depends on when and where you foul him.  I imagine that if he has the ball 3-4 feet from the basket in good position, his shooting % is considerably higher than 57%.  So fouling him then, and if you can prevent it from being a potential three point play by actually stopping him from scoring, makes sense.  If he is shooting a jump hook for 8 feet away, just try and get a hand in his face.  Of course, asking Sammy to be smart with when he commits a foul is like asking water to be dry, ain't gonna happen.

[WayOutWest]

It depends on when and where you foul him.  I imagine that if he has the ball 3-4 feet from the basket in good position, his shooting % is considerably higher than 57%.  So fouling him then, and if you can prevent it from being a potential three point play by actually stopping him from scoring, makes sense.  If he is shooting a jump hook for 8 feet away, just try and get a hand in his face.  Of course, asking Sammy to be smart with when he commits a foul is like asking water to be dry, ain't gonna happen.

I know:

There are situations where it makes sense to put a guy on the line when he typically only makes half his FT's but as a game/series strategy it will not work, the percentages and some basic math will bear out.

But when you talk about the 18 fouls you have to give, the post I quoted, you start getting into "Hack-A-Shaq" and that just doesn't work consistently enough to win a series.

[RickyPryor]

Howard is shooting 57% from the field so you are actually worse off putting him on the line. 

That's incorrect.  Especially when you consider that a field goal is worth two; and a foul shot one.

[DuckyNinja]

Howard is shooting 57% from the field so you are actually worse off putting him on the line. 

That's incorrect.  Especially when you consider that a field goal is worth two; and a foul shot one.

Ricky: always there to look at things in the most simplistic way possible.  It's been shown that using hack-a-center for more than end-game situations will almost always result in failure.  There's not much debate.

[RickyPryor]

Howard is shooting 57% from the field so you are actually worse off putting him on the line. 

That's incorrect.  Especially when you consider that a field goal is worth two; and a foul shot one.

Ricky: always there to look at things in the most simplistic way possible.  It's been shown that using hack-a-center for more than end-game situations will almost always result in failure.  There's not much debate.

As always - you missed the point.

We aren't discussing 'hack-a-howard'.  At least I sure as hell never brought it up.  If I had my preference, and the ball gets too deep - we have the depth of Bigs to play the guy physically.  That's what I said.

Now.

This fella then went on to argue that Howard's percentages were equal from both the foul line and from the field.  And that's (also) not true.  Obviously.  Consider he needs to make TWO free throws to offset the one FG.


But hey, ya know what?  Maybe that WAS simple.

[rickortreat]

Howard is the guy you want to play agressively, and so our combo of Sam, Reggie and Theo (and their 18 fouls between them) should be rotated constantly.  Put that fella on the line; let him shoot his 59% from there instead of from 2 feet.

Howard is shooting 57% from the field so you are actually worse off putting him on the line.  As long as a guy shots 50% from the FT line you are not going to beat him by putting him on the line.  This point has been argued to death with Shaq and his FT woes.  There are situations where it makes sense to put a guy on the line when he typically only makes half his FT's but as a game/series strategy it will not work, the percentages and some basic math will bear out.  Fouling a guy consistently also allows the guy to get into a rythm and lets the other teams defense set up.

IMO you pull a Bill Russell/Phil Jackson on the Magic to beat them.  Play Dwight strait up and hope you can keep it close.  Stay at home on the shooters all game long until the closing minutes then start to double/triple team Dwight and force the Magic shooters to win the game.  Russell used to do it Wilt and PJ used to do it to Tim Duncan.  Play them one way early then switch it up late in the game.  PJ used to do the reverse to TD as well, he would double/triple TD then in the closing minutes he would let Shaq play TD strait up.  I don't know if the Sixers have someone who can play Dwight as well as Shaq played TD but that's another curve ball you can throw at the Magic.  Dwight is not playoff tested, nor is he considered a critical possesion guy because of his FT shooting.

I completely agree with this approach.  Dwight is not their primary scorer anyway.  As long as a defender stays in front of him, (Dalembert did fine with that this season) Howard isn't going to win the game for them. 

It's Hedo and Lewis shooting from outside that will do us in, if anything will.  Fortunately, they will be paired up with Young and Iguodala, and I am confident our forwards will outscore theirs.

If the Sixers can keep the Magic from shooting three's and avoid fouling them, they can win the series. Their tendency is not to stay at home, but help and switch on every play.  The Magic are very adept at using screens to create mismatches, and it will be very hard for the Sixers to play them the right way.  The better they are at it, the better their chances, the more injured Hedo and Lewis are the better as well.

I'm afraid the Sixers aren't ready, but they might get lucky.

[Derek Bodner]

Dwight's "only" averaging 15.7/10 against us.
http://nba.phillyarena.com/players/Dwight+Howard/

It's the rest of the team.  We collapse on dwight, and they kill us.  I would try to play Dwight man-up as much as possible.  I'd feel a lot better if we had Brand.  I'd actually try to go small as little as possible.  They do a pretty good job of setting screens to get Dwight on the smaller frontcourt player.