Basketball Thoughts, WC

[Reality]

Portland:  We shall see how seeding plays out, but zig as you well know it is looking real good for #4 seed hence host R1 in Portland.
@ Clippers (please, do not choke this one Blazers)
OKC (dangerous but very beatable)
Denver in a game that probably will mean nothing to Denver, hence the Nuggets will toss it out.

Climb to #3??  Well, Houston does have to play New Orl and then Dallas, altho Dallas may have nothing to play for.  I would say root for the Jazz at this point to stay on Dallas' butt hence make the finale of Houston vs Dallas meaningful.

Spurs I'm hoping Cementavich will rest Timmy Dunks all three games, altho certainly the 2nd of the upcoming b2b.  Can't see them going 3-0 hence i think Portland even going 2-1 will secure home court R1.

Access to seats zig?

[Reality]

Spurs Duncan.  This could be just Duncan doing PollyAnna talk, but if true the dream for a 5th Duncan RealChampionship lives:

An upbeat Tim Duncan said after tonight's victory over Utah that the tendonosis that has plagued his right knee for more than a month is starting to show signs of dissipating.

For the first time since mid-February, Duncan did not play with a brace on that knee. He wore one on his left knee, as he has since underdoing surgery on it after the 1999-2000 season.

"I'm getting my right leg back," Duncan said. "It (the pain) is basically gone, so it was good to be out there without a brace on and kind of play well."

Duncan scored 14 points on 5-of-11 shooting and grabbed nine rebounds against the Jazz. It came two nights after he managed just four points in a loss to Portland, in which Gregg Popovich had to pull him out of the game in the fourth quarter due to health concerns.

"I felt a lot better tonight," Duncan said. "It was good to have a day off and come out here and run up and down and have a lot less pain."

http://blogs.mysanantonio.com/weblogs/courtside/2009/04/duncan-tendonos.html

[Reality]

The Magic are going to win 60+ this season. They're the team most are discounting, even though they've beaten everyone, including the elite teams.  IF they get to the finals, they're going to take it.

Will you put money on it if the Lakers come out of the WC?  I will. 

Maybe lets see who meets up in the Finals.   

Make him pay you in gold.

We'll get to his blathering about the Atlantic having only ONE team above .500 in a few days.  Go Sixers!

[WayOutWest]

Blazers: Once again a fun team to watch but too young and inexperienced, if they finish tied with Houston, they lose home court and hence the first round. IF they get out of the first round, LA is too much for them. But look out in the future, this team is gonna be good.

Did you see why I worry about the Blazers?  The Lakers had them, the Lakers PROVED to the Blazers that when the Lakers get serious on both ends of the court the Blazers have no shot at beating the Lakers.  Did the Blazers listen?  Hell no!  The Lakers were winding up for a knock out blow but the Blazers quickly kicked them in the nuts and got back into the game because at home the Blazers have NO fear, they don't get down, the don't say "die".

As I stated earler, my concern is the Lakers lose one of the first two at home and then the Blazers hold fast on their home court and take the series in 6.  Luckily that concern is now gone, I don't think the Blazers sneak away with a win in LA in the first two games because I saw Kobe interviewed after the game and he was PISSED!  IMO the Lakers might sweep the Blazers if they meet in the playoffs after getting punked at Portland again. 

I am content.  

[ziggy]

Portland:  We shall see how seeding plays out, but zig as you well know it is looking real good for #4 seed hence host R1 in Portland.
@ Clippers (please, do not choke this one Blazers)
OKC (dangerous but very beatable)
Denver in a game that probably will mean nothing to Denver, hence the Nuggets will toss it out.

Climb to #3??  Well, Houston does have to play New Orl and then Dallas, altho Dallas may have nothing to play for.  I would say root for the Jazz at this point to stay on Dallas' butt hence make the finale of Houston vs Dallas meaningful.

Spurs I'm hoping Cementavich will rest Timmy Dunks all three games, altho certainly the 2nd of the upcoming b2b.  Can't see them going 3-0 hence i think Portland even going 2-1 will secure home court R1.

Access to seats zig?

I went to the Laker game, great atmosphere.  I can get access two sets of 4 tickets whenever I need, but there is 5 of us, plus I have homework, and the oldest is playing HS baseball, so I doubt we will make more than an occasional Sunday game.

Blazers playing really well right now.  Have won 10 of their last 13.  Only losses were
1.)  in OT to Cleveland in Cleveland,
2.)  a loss at home to Philly in OT where we shot 40% (our 8th worst % of the season), and Philly shot 52%.  We played poorly, and we still took it to OT.
3.)  A loss at Houston

Overall in the last 13 we have a positive differential per game of nearly 10 points, of the 10 wins, we won by double digits in 8 of them.  If we win out that will be 13 of 16 to end the season, the only losses would be Cleveland & Houston on the road, and Philly at home.  I guess will will see if peaking come playoff time really is a good omen or not.

[Reality]

Interesting stats re seeding.  Incentive to try to climb to #3.  Whoever finishes outside of 1-2-3 is going to have to be the 1st team this decade to reach the West Finals.  I still think SA should rest Duncan, but it might help Portland or Hou to obtain/maintain #3.

Week in Review/Preview: Spurs set to miss May madness
By Douglas Pils - Express-News commentary

When the NBA playoffs start on Saturday, take a look at the top three teams in each conference.

The NBA champion will come from one of those six squads, proof positive that in the NBA the regular season counts and only in college does postseason madness prevail.

The only team outside its conference's No. 3 seed to reach the NBA Finals this decade was the 2006 Dallas Mavericks, who despite being a No. 4 seed had the West's second-best record at 60-22. (Rules have been changed to keep that from happening again.)
This decade, the top three seeds are 48-6 in the first round of the NBA playoffs.

Now that you've got that number, here's another  zero. Of the six teams who pulled off the first-round upsets  five No. 6 seeds and a No. 8  none made it past the next round.

In case you were wondering, no fifth seed, the Spurs' slot as of Saturday, has reached the conference finals this decade.

Consider that when you hear the following sentiment expressed between games at Sacramento today and Golden State on Monday.

Gregg Popovich says he's more concerned about the Spurs' health and not so much about their playoff seeding when the postseason begins.
He's not talking about health as it relates to this year's playoffs. He's talking about the 2010 playoffs.
So, for those thinking that Tim Duncan missing a few minutes here and a few seconds there might mean something when the Western Conference finals begin sometime in May, start planning those summer vacations if the Spurs don't leapfrog Houston and Portland.
And that's assuming you don't already consider the Spurs dead without Manu Ginobili.
By late May, those in Silver and Black will be talking about how happy they are that this summer includes no World Championships, no Olympic qualifying and no Olympics.  That will give older legs, balky knees and surgically repaired lower legs time to rest.

2001: (6) Hornets beat (3) Heat (lost to Bucks, East semis)
2003: (6) Celtics beat (3) Pacers (lost to Nets, East semis)
2005: (6) Pacers beat (3) Celtics (lost to Pistons, East semis)
2006: (6) Clippers beat (3) Nuggets (lost to Suns, West semis)
2007: (6) Nets beat (3) Raptors (lost to Cavs, East semis)
2007: (8th) Warriors beat (1) Mavericks (lost to Jazz, West semis)

[rickortreat]

The Magic are going to win 60+ this season. They're the team most are discounting, even though they've beaten everyone, including the elite teams.  IF they get to the finals, they're going to take it.

Once again, Rick displays his lack of understanding.

No one is discounting Orlando, indeed, they HAVE beaten the elite team, they split with Boston, took the season series with Cleveland, swept the Lakers, and not that this team matters one whit, they SWEPT the Sixers. The problem is they will likely face the Celtics, game over. IF they make it past Boston, they have a legit shot at the Final as I think they are more well rounded than Cleveland, but, despite the regular season sweep of LA. THEY WILL NOT BEAT LA IN THE FINALS!

Poor Rick, your Sixers are drawing the team that will humiliate the talentless east coast scrubs that hail from Philly, must drive you nuts, wait, you are already nuts. 

What IS NUTS is that you are discounting the Magic even though you say they aren't!  If they face the Celtics (probable) there's no certainty the Celtics will win.  Orlando beat them when KG was healthy!  And even thought they beat LA is the only two games this season you say they won't beat them in the finals.  So all you are doing is asserting that Orlando even has no chance, even though their playing says they do.

Thanks I needed a laugh! 

[ziggy]

Interesting stats re seeding.  Incentive to try to climb to #3.  Whoever finishes outside of 1-2-3 is going to have to be the 1st team this decade to reach the West Finals.  I still think SA should rest Duncan, but it might help Portland or Hou to obtain/maintain #3.

Week in Review/Preview: Spurs set to miss May madness
By Douglas Pils - Express-News commentary

When the NBA playoffs start on Saturday, take a look at the top three teams in each conference.

The NBA champion will come from one of those six squads, proof positive that in the NBA the regular season counts and only in college does postseason madness prevail.

The only team outside its conference's No. 3 seed to reach the NBA Finals this decade was the 2006 Dallas Mavericks, who despite being a No. 4 seed had the West's second-best record at 60-22. (Rules have been changed to keep that from happening again.)
This decade, the top three seeds are 48-6 in the first round of the NBA playoffs.

Now that you've got that number, here's another  zero. Of the six teams who pulled off the first-round upsets  five No. 6 seeds and a No. 8  none made it past the next round.

In case you were wondering, no fifth seed, the Spurs' slot as of Saturday, has reached the conference finals this decade.

Consider that when you hear the following sentiment expressed between games at Sacramento today and Golden State on Monday.

Gregg Popovich says he's more concerned about the Spurs' health and not so much about their playoff seeding when the postseason begins.
He's not talking about health as it relates to this year's playoffs. He's talking about the 2010 playoffs.
So, for those thinking that Tim Duncan missing a few minutes here and a few seconds there might mean something when the Western Conference finals begin sometime in May, start planning those summer vacations if the Spurs don't leapfrog Houston and Portland.
And that's assuming you don't already consider the Spurs dead without Manu Ginobili.
By late May, those in Silver and Black will be talking about how happy they are that this summer includes no World Championships, no Olympic qualifying and no Olympics.  That will give older legs, balky knees and surgically repaired lower legs time to rest.

2001: (6) Hornets beat (3) Heat (lost to Bucks, East semis)
2003: (6) Celtics beat (3) Pacers (lost to Nets, East semis)
2005: (6) Pacers beat (3) Celtics (lost to Pistons, East semis)
2006: (6) Clippers beat (3) Nuggets (lost to Suns, West semis)
2007: (6) Nets beat (3) Raptors (lost to Cavs, East semis)
2007: (8th) Warriors beat (1) Mavericks (lost to Jazz, West semis)

If we finish #3 then in all probability we face Dallas.  Of SA, NO, Utah, Dallas the last team I want to face is Dallas.  They have two scorers who can take over a game (Dirk & Terry), and they have a big physical PG.  You take who you get, but I would prefer to face someone besides Dallas.

[Reality]

Bogus call lets the Spurs avoid OT tonight vs Kings.  I don't want those kinds of wins.  They're for the Laker Bois.
Pass by Parker is wayy too late.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2fiZjER5E68&eurl=http%3A%2F%2Fwww%2Espurstalk%2Ecom%2Fforums%2Fshowthread%2Ephp%3Ft%3D122551&feature=player_embedded

Well zig, does Portland own any and all tiebreakers with Houston and SAS?  I know Portland does not own the Denver tie.  This is going to be an interesting last two games.  Sorry but I'm gonna pull for OKC.

[WayOutWest]

If we finish #3 then in all probability we face Dallas.  Of SA, NO, Utah, Dallas the last team I want to face is Dallas.  They have two scorers who can take over a game (Dirk & Terry), and they have a big physical PG.  You take who you get, but I would prefer to face someone besides Dallas.

I don't remember who posted it but IMO the Lakers are better off facing the Jazz early.  The Jazz have a seed of doubt in their minds regarding the inability to win away from home.  Couple that with the loss to the Lakers last year and it makes for an easier 1st round matchup for the Lakers.  The Lakers will probably face them in the second round if they meet Denver in the 1st and by then the Jazz might have shaken off the demons.

Portland is the flip, their confidence is sky high.  They know the Lakers have not had any success in Portland for a long time so all they have to focus on is taking one of the first two at Staples and it's "game on". 

Everyone else in the WC should get spanked by the Lakers.

[Lurker]

Well zig, does Portland own any and all tiebreakers with Houston and SAS?  I know Portland does not own the Denver tie.  This is going to be an interesting last two games.  Sorry but I'm gonna pull for OKC.

Houston/SA tiebreaker takes precedence because it is for the division title.  THEN the tiebreaker with Portland to decide the #4 seed.

[ziggy]

Well zig, does Portland own any and all tiebreakers with Houston and SAS?  I know Portland does not own the Denver tie.  This is going to be an interesting last two games.  Sorry but I'm gonna pull for OKC.

Houston/SA tiebreaker takes precedence because it is for the division title.  THEN the tiebreaker with Portland to decide the #4 seed.

Lurker is right.  The first order of business is to decide who wins SW, and Houston owns that tie breaker, but you have to go 3-4 deep to get that.  After that then it is for the #4 seed, and Portland owns taht tie breaker against SA.  Houston owns tie breaker with Portland so if SA wins division outright then Houston gets HC against PDX.

I agree with WOW about Utah right now.  Utah has a real nice stretch in Feb, but that was against teams they should have beat.  The big issue was going to come in March and April, and Utah has not played all that well.  Utah is the weakest link in the WC right now.

[JoMal]

Hokey Smokes Bullwinkle! Do you care to explain older man than me, why you think Houston is or would be even a remote threat to LA's path to glory? Is it Battier's defense of Kobe? Artest's? Do you know Kobe shot well over 50% 3 of the 4 times they beat Houston this year? With those 2 shutdown defenders? Is it the scathing offensive firepower of Ming, who averaged less than 17 points in those 4 losses? McGrady's THREE points in his one and only appearance? Artest's scintillating shooting? What is it JoMal? The world wonders.

First off, sorry, WOW, for confusing YOUR nonsensical pinpoint critique of Lakerisms with Dan's nonsensical pinpoint critique of Lakerisms. Two pees in the same punch.

Second, Dan, older man that I am, I foresee a wasted struggle on your part in keeping up as you ripen yourself, being that you apparently have a mighty fear of what is to come now that you have passed the point of no return on your personal age scale. Calm down, the symtoms you are experiencing may NOT be demetia, just...well....your mental acumen kicking itself for not seeing this coming.

Basketball strategists adapt, and I have seen Rick Adelman achieve some remarkable things against all odds. The 2002 playoffs the Kings played against the Lakers was essentially a standstill, and no one else came close to rocking the Laker boat that year but the Kings, who did NOT have the most dominant player and his annoying sidekick to fall back on, along with an incredible bias on the part of the refs of game six. On a fair playing court, it would have been the best situation in basketball there could have been, but that series is still why I have been losing interest in the pro game ever since.

The Rockets don't have McGrady, and at this point it would favor other teams in the playoffs if he were to come back. The Rockets would have to acclimate him back into the rotation and that would take at least a month, not the few days of a playoff series. Houston also is aware of the Laker games played against them all too well. If the Lakers play the same, and I see no reason for Jackson to change things, it leads other teams to adjust, and Adelman is going to, believe me. He has never had the line-to-line talent of the Lakers to work with, but he has still managed to make his teams competitive against Jackson while he has coached the Lakers once in the playoffs and I see him doing the same, especially since the Lakers beat the Rockets so often in the regular season.

Artest is a different player in the playoffs. Completely different. You get much, much more of the Artest you hear about. Battier and Ming will be harder to deal with, especially Yao. I still see the Lakers coming out of the West. They should, as they have the best talent and the least injury issues of any team. But don't dismiss the Rockets as being the team this year that threatens that the most. 

[Joe Vancil]

Well zig, does Portland own any and all tiebreakers with Houston and SAS?  I know Portland does not own the Denver tie.  This is going to be an interesting last two games.  Sorry but I'm gonna pull for OKC.

Houston/SA tiebreaker takes precedence because it is for the division title.  THEN the tiebreaker with Portland to decide the #4 seed.

Lurker is right.  The first order of business is to decide who wins SW, and Houston owns that tie breaker, but you have to go 3-4 deep to get that.  After that then it is for the #4 seed, and Portland owns taht tie breaker against SA.  Houston owns tie breaker with Portland so if SA wins division outright then Houston gets HC against PDX.

I agree with WOW about Utah right now.  Utah has a real nice stretch in Feb, but that was against teams they should have beat.  The big issue was going to come in March and April, and Utah has not played all that well.  Utah is the weakest link in the WC right now.

I wouldn't call Utah the weakest link.  They're a playoff-ready, physical kind of team, and the playoffs may very well bring out the best of the team, like it has in past years.  The weak link, in my opinion, is still Denver.

That said, if I'm LA, I want the Jazz in the first round.  You put your foot on their neck early, you eliminate them before they start to roll, and at the same time, given the team, you get to crank up your own intensity.  And if you're going to catch a Portland or San An in round 2, then I DEFINITELY want to have "warmed up" against the Jazz.

And finally, I want to address the idea of LA losing the final regular season game against Utah...how'd that work out for the Mavericks and Golden State?  If LA is smart, they HUMBLE the Jazz in that meeting.  Get Jazz players making vacation plans early again. 

Utah should want *DENVER*.  That's a beatable team, and it gives you a chance to get right...and maybe be finely tuned by the time you face the Lakers in the conference finals.

[Reality]

I wouldn't call Utah the weakest link.  They're a playoff-ready, physical kind of team, and the playoffs may very well bring out the best of the team, like it has in past years.  The weak link, in my opinion, is still Denver.

While I agree they may not be the weakest link, until you, Skander, Ted, FanDan or anyone can explain their lousy road record (15-25) they are WCFs at best.  Much more likely 1st or 2nd Round outers.
http://forums.phillyarena.com/index.php?topic=5316.0