Can anyone beat the MVP?

[Joe Vancil]

The Celtics this year aren't the Celtics of last year.  Last year, this wasn't just a hungry team of veterans, but a hungry team of veterans needing to be validated.  This year, they're just a veteran team.

Cleveland is for real, and no one is more surprised by this than me.  I felt this team was LeBron and a bunch of cast-offs, but the truth of it is that this is a TALENTED, DEEP team.  They've got lots of UNDERRATED players to go alongside of LeBron.  Right now, I think you have to call them the favorites in the East - even if Boston gets Garnett back and healthy.

Orlando is for real because of Howard's ability to change a game, but they are relying heavily on the outside shot.  That can do some damage, and might even knock off a Boston or Cleveland on occasion, but ultimately, against the Lakers, this is pretty much doomed to fail, assuming they could get that far.

The Lakers are the Lakers, and the biggest weaknesses they have are if they play "flip the switch" basketball or if Kobe gets it in his head that he has to upstage someone (like LeBron) individually.  If they play their typical game, I see them walking though the West.

Utah?  I'm about as ambivalent about their chances as they seem to be about some of the opening quarter of some of their games.  It seems like it takes a while to get the competitive juices flowing, and that's a horrific way to be playing come playoff time.

San An?  Without Ginobilli, I don't see it.

My dark horse out of the West is Dallas.  This is a team that hasn't really been whole all year, and that is still adjusting to a new coach and a new style.  It is also very deep at some positions, and has some proven players at the top of the roster.  They're just missing the kind of chemistry we've seen from previous Dallas teams.  As they start to get all of their players playing together, they might develop that chemistry.

So I'm looking at LA vs. Cleveland, which, unless Kobe goes individualistic, should go to the Lakers rather handily.

[WayOutWest]

My dark horse out of the West is Dallas.  This is a team that hasn't really been whole all year, and that is still adjusting to a new coach and a new style.  It is also very deep at some positions, and has some proven players at the top of the roster.  They're just missing the kind of chemistry we've seen from previous Dallas teams.  As they start to get all of their players playing together, they might develop that chemistry.

Joe, we're discussing the 2009 playoffs.

[Joe Vancil]

And Dallas is the team that no one is watchng for.  They have a solid scoring core that hasn't spent a lot of time together this year, some break-out capable talent on the bench, and a coach that is working to shape a more defensive-minded structure.  It will take a lot of things coming together, but it's not a ridiculous thing.  And what's worse, in Nowitzki, you've got the odd kind of player that makes for a difficult match-up.

[WayOutWest]

And Dallas is the team that no one is watchng for.  They have a solid scoring core that hasn't spent a lot of time together this year, some break-out capable talent on the bench, and a coach that is working to shape a more defensive-minded structure.  It will take a lot of things coming together, but it's not a ridiculous thing.  And what's worse, in Nowitzki, you've got the odd kind of player that makes for a difficult match-up.

I hear you Joe, many Lakers fans do not see the problems that a Dirk/Dampier can cause for the Lakers.  Tough and versatile kills the Lakers, expecially tough.  Then they have speedy guys that destroy the Lakers defense. 

Still, I don't think Kobe is going to let a team like Dallas beat the Lakers, and when it's "do or DIE" time, Kobe is going to win and the Mavs are going to fold.

[Lurker]

Dallas cannot play consistantly enough to win 4 games against LA.  The Mavs best chance to make it to the second round would be the 7th seed playing Denver.  The Nuggets IMO are not a strong playoff team...although Chauncey helps.

[Derek Bodner]

No dominant superstar and no bench, the Celtics are not in the same class as last years Celtics let alone this years Cavs/Lakers.

As opposed to the superstar they had last year?

This is the "problem" with sharing the load.  People say "god, I wish teams played good team basketball", then when they do, they say "this team can't win because they don't have a dominant superstar".

Meanwhile their top 4 offensive players are shooting 46%, 48%, 53%, and 50.5%.

The Celtics are outscoring people by 9 per game.  They're doing it at nearly 49% from the field and 39% from 3.  They're a dominant defensive team, and a great defensive rebound team.  Yet they're dismissed.

Heck, if there's anyone who should be biased against the Celtics, it's me.  But, just like before last year, when everyone said "there's not enough basketballs to satisfy the big 3".  Now it's "oh, they don't have the drive anymore".

They're #2 in point differential.  #1 in rebounding.   #2 in fg%.  #1 in opp fg%.  #1 in 3pt% and #4 in opp 3pt%.

And this is all with Garnett missing the time he did.

I'm not going to dismiss them quite so easily. 

[WayOutWest]

As opposed to the superstar they had last year?

Agreed they had no dominant superstar last year but Paulina filled that role when it mattered.  They're bench is not as good as last year and their starters are too old to carry the 7 game load vs Cavs or Magic, they'll probably have to beat both. 

I will go ahead and dismiss them none the less and I'm putting my money where my mouth is this weekend.

[JoMal]

And Dallas is the team that no one is watchng for.  They have a solid scoring core that hasn't spent a lot of time together this year, some break-out capable talent on the bench, and a coach that is working to shape a more defensive-minded structure.  It will take a lot of things coming together, but it's not a ridiculous thing.  And what's worse, in Nowitzki, you've got the odd kind of player that makes for a difficult match-up.

<ahem> DALLAS???

[Joe Vancil]

Well, I would have said "Sacramento," but it would be a bit obvious that no one's watching for them, don't you think?

[JoMal]

Well, I would have said "Sacramento," but it would be a bit obvious that no one's watching for them, don't you think?

The point is, you might as WELL had said Sacramento.

[rickortreat]

Not in the same class as the Lakers and Cavs, you're right, they're a cut above, having actually won it last season!

No dominant superstar and no bench, the Celtics are not in the same class as last years Celtics let alone this years Cavs/Lakers.

Leave it to a Laker fan to diss the World Champions.  No dominant superstar, who do you think Garnett is and just who do you think Paul Pierce is?  They are as dominant at their positions as Kobe is at his. They lost Posey off the bench and you think they're done?  Keep dreaming, and pray that Garnett doesn't come back healthy! 

If they get to the finals they will roll over the Lakers again, unless Bynum is back and playing starter min.

But my darkhorse candidate is Orlando.  They kicked Cleveland's butt something awful.  They don't play the same style as most teams and defending against them is much more difficult because they have shooters to spread the floor.  They are patient enough on offense to see how they're being defended and know how to look for mismatches on switches.  They also have Hedo to do a Ginobli like performance, only Hedo is a better shooter.  They also have Dwight Howard, who is the best Center in the league. 

 

[Lurker]

  They also have Hedo to do a Ginobli like performance, only Hedo is a better shooter.  
 

rick, do you ever bother with facts or just claim your seat-of-the-pants opinions are right?

Manu   .454 FG%  .884  FT%   .330 3pt%  career  .454/.821/.376

Hedo   .409 FG%  .809  FT%   .364 3pt%  career  .428/.801/.386

Turkoglu is a slightly better 3 point shooter.  Manu beats him from everywhere else.

[rickortreat]

I was looking at totals, not shooting percentage.  But you are right, Ginobli is a significantly better shooter.  But both players are very difficult to guard.  And Orlando plays at a higher pace than SA, which makes each shot less significant.

[WayOutWest]

Leave it to a Laker fan to diss the World Champions.  No dominant superstar, who do you think Garnett is and just who do you think Paul Pierce is?  They are as dominant at their positions as Kobe is at his. They lost Posey off the bench and you think they're done?  Keep dreaming, and pray that Garnett doesn't come back healthy! 

Garnett has always been a 2nd banana.  Where have you been all these years Rick?  The constant knock against KG is that he was never "the man", he would rather pass for an assist on a game winning shot rather than take the shot himself.  He has always put up superstar numbers but he was not a closer like Kobe.  I can't say anything pro or con about Paulina since he never really had a shot on the big stage until last year but he never seemed to get his team very far in the playoffs and had it not been for the addition of Garnett and Allen he never would have.

If they get to the finals they will roll over the Lakers again, unless Bynum is back and playing starter min.

Bynum or no Bynum the Lakers will beat the Celtics, I'd put money on it, would you?  I am not so certain about the Lakers beating the Cavs.

They also have Hedo to do a Ginobli like performance, only Hedo is a better shooter.

Wow rick, you ARE an idiot with no clue about basketball.  You're a waste of time if you cannot recognize the versatility of Manu.

[rickortreat]

Leave it to a Laker fan to diss the World Champions.  No dominant superstar, who do you think Garnett is and just who do you think Paul Pierce is?  They are as dominant at their positions as Kobe is at his. They lost Posey off the bench and you think they're done?  Keep dreaming, and pray that Garnett doesn't come back healthy! 

Garnett has always been a 2nd banana.  Where have you been all these years Rick?  The constant knock against KG is that he was never "the man", he would rather pass for an assist on a game winning shot rather than take the shot himself.  He has always put up superstar numbers but he was not a closer like Kobe.  I can't say anything pro or con about Paulina since he never really had a shot on the big stage until last year but he never seemed to get his team very far in the playoffs and had it not been for the addition of Garnett and Allen he never would have.

If they get to the finals they will roll over the Lakers again, unless Bynum is back and playing starter min.

Bynum or no Bynum the Lakers will beat the Celtics, I'd put money on it, would you?  I am not so certain about the Lakers beating the Cavs.

They also have Hedo to do a Ginobli like performance, only Hedo is a better shooter.

Wow rick, you ARE an idiot with no clue about basketball.  You're a waste of time if you cannot recognize the versatility of Manu.

Have you even watched Hedo play?  He is every but as versatile as Ginobli, but he's also taller, which makes matching up even more difficult.  They also beat LA twice.
 
And, there is no way I'd favor the Lakers over healthy Celtics.  They play much better defense than the Lakers and they are better rebounders.  Pierce is bigger and stronger than Kobe, and Garnett is better than Gasol.  Pierce has alwasy been a great player, he just never had a cast around him to showcase his talents. Further the Lakers have no one, save Kobe who can stay with Ray Allen, and they can't afford for him to waste his energy there.