How important is a deep bench for the playoffs?

[Lurker]

Here is an interesting take from ESPN insider...

Originally Published: March 30, 2009
Bench Blabber: The importance of depth is yet another playoff myth
By Luke Cyphers
ESPN The Magazine
 
Worn down? Tuckered out? And headed for the NBA playoffs? Well, too bad. Suck it up. Because real champions don't need a bench. Especially not in the postseason.

Since 2004, the O'Brien Trophy winner has ranked 14th, 11th, 19th, first and 16th in regular-season points off the bench. Being in the bottom half of the class really hurt the Miami Heat in 2005-06, eh? And that first-place team with the first-class bench? The 2006-07 San Antonio Spurs, who cheat by bringing an All-Star, Manu Ginobili, off the cozy courtside chairs after the opening tip. The Boston Celtics, last year's champs, were seventh in the league in minutes played by their bench, but that resulted from a surfeit of blowouts, especially early in the season. But when it counts, the Celtics, and every other squad, sit the scrubs. Bench time and bench points decline dramatically in the playoffs.

Q: But wait, what about P.J. Brown? Didn't his minutes go up last season?

A: Yes, they did, and we're glad you asked. Because Brown, who came out of retirement to give the Celtics huge postseason minutes last season, is an anecdote that proves the rule, an exception we'll call the "Big Shot Bob Corollary." In big spots, teams with clutch, mistake-free vets -- guys like Robert Horry -- use them in the playoffs. In the Spurs' 2006-07 title run, Horry logged 16.5 regular-season minutes a game, which increased to 20.1 a game in the playoffs.

Brown was last season's Big Shot Bob. He averaged 11.6 minutes a game for Boston in the regular season, but his playoff time rose to 13.6, and that doesn't even tell the whole story. His playing time grew with each series, until he averaged 19.5 minutes a game in the Finals against the Lakers. Those minutes had to come from somewhere, and the creaky vet took them from the Big Baby. Rookie Glen Davis saw his time decrease from 13.6 minutes a game in the regular season to 8.1 in the playoffs. He didn't get off the bench against the Lakers until the Game 6 blowout.

So yes, you need subs in the playoffs. Just not very many. In the NBA, you stay with your starters (and Manu), and grind them into dust. It might have taken awhile for Dwyane Wade to recover, but that ring was worth it, wasn't it?

SHORTENING THE BENCH
Each of the past five champions has received significantly less production from its reserves in the playoffs, compared with the regular season.

Season Champ Bench MPG (Reg. Season) Bench MPG (Playoffs) Difference Bench PPG (Reg. Season) Bench PPG (Playoffs) Difference
2007-08 Celtics 84.6 69.6 -18% 29.7 21.8 -27%
2006-07 Spurs 97.1 85.0 -12% 36.9 29.5 -20%
2005-06 Heat 79.5 69.4 -13% 26.5 18.0 -32.%
2004-05 Spurs 87.6 75.3 -14% 31.1 26.9 -14%
2003-04 Pistons 77.2 56.2 -27% 26.8 16.0 -40%

You'll find a similar drop-off in minutes and points if you study the runners-up from those five seasons. And that's why this season's contenders shouldn't be concerned about bench production as they prepare for the playoffs.

CURRENT CONTENDERS
The top four teams in each conference this season run the spectrum in terms of bench production.

Team Bench MPG Rank Bench PPG Rank
Cavaliers 80.6 17 25 27
Celtics 74.8 23 27.2 22
Magic 73.2 25 23.2 30
Hawks 67.9 30 25 26
Lakers 83.0 12 29.6 15
Spurs 93.9 1 30.6 13
Nuggets 86.9 6 32.6 5
Rockets 76.2 21 28.4 17

Q: But wait, aren't we supposed to value depth?

A: No. It's one of those myths you get from TV, where the more you watch, the less you know. Or maybe it's driving that does that. We forget. Anyhow, it goes without saying that depth wins championships. It goes without saying because it's false. And it's just as false in the pros as it is in the (we're writing this with a straight face) amateur ranks of the NCAA. Louisville's waves of subs washed out before the Final Four. As ESPN Insider's own inimitable Mike Hume told us, "The teams that are successful in the tournament don't need to throw Harvey Benchwarmer and Sam Splinterpicker into the game." (We said inimitable, but that doesn't mean he's not plagiarizable. By the way, ESPN Research is as we speak gaming out matchups between Splinterpicker and Chief Kickingstallionsims.)

These numbers don't blow up every playoff-basketball clich?. In fact, they probably confirm several, including the following:

-You need to win in the half court.

-You need to ride your best guys.

-Your best guys must avoid foul trouble.

And they confirm any other truism that concludes depth doesn't matter much. Point is, NBA players are well-conditioned athletes, and they're paid well to withstand the rigors of nine months in short pants. The best ones, like Tim Duncan, Paul Pierce and LeBron James, are paid a lot. That's why championship coaches keep them and their best teammates on the court. They can handle it.

Luke Cyphers is a senior writer for ESPN The Magazine

His premise is sound that teams shorten their rotations and play their starters more in the playoffs.  But 10-15 minutes difference is 2-3 minutes per starter.  Stepping up from 34-38 minutes to 37-41 is expected of most starters.  Top stars probably pick up even more minutes.

This can also explain why bench scoring drops by a greater %.  Now when the bench players are in the game there is also more starters/scorers on the floor.  Also defensive specialists get more time in the playoffs.

The flip side is a deep bench allows starters to play less minutes in the regular season and allow teams to maintain their seedings.

[WayOutWest]

The flip side is a deep bench allows starters to play less minutes in the regular season and allow teams to maintain their seedings.

IMO that is the biggest strength of a deep bench, your stars go into the playoffs healthy.  You role into the playoffs tired or hurt and you're gonna get spanked. 

IMO the biggest story in this years playoffs is going to be the Cavs HCA.  IMO the Cavs have built an aura, more of an axiom, of invincibility at home.  I don't think the Cavs are going to lose a playoff game at home until the EC Finals, heck they might not even lose one for the rest of the year.

[rickortreat]

Right.  Deep benches win you more regular season games- and can be the difference between a win and a loss, but once the rotations tighten, those players may not even see the floor.

Very few teams have enough talent that one of their best players starts on the bench.  Typically your best starting five includes all your best players. If a team has a bench player that would be a starter elsewhere, he's a young player, or someone the team will soon loose to free agency. Even if you're good enough to draft well, you can only hold on to them if they're willing to deal with your team and sacrifice some money for the chance to win titles.

Rest becomes important even for the best well-conditioned athlete. A solid bench can buy the starters a few extra minutes that will help them to be rested enough to compete strongly at the end of the game.

[Reality]

Franklin Edwards.
Earl Cureton.