Author Topic: Bynum out 8-12 weeks  (Read 5704 times)

Offline Reality

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Re: Bynum out 8-12 weeks
« Reply #15 on: February 04, 2009, 11:56:19 AM »
They won it last year without Superbyns, so they can certainly do it again.  As far as the 8-12 week thing this injury seems more severe than last years, so I would expect 12 weeks minimum.

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I'm with you ziggy.  This Lakers team is now the same one that won the WC last year.  Except with experience together.  Even Jackson knows the score...
Does this mean we will not be seeing the Lakers given another Collusion roster addition?

Offline rickortreat

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Re: Bynum out 8-12 weeks
« Reply #16 on: February 04, 2009, 06:10:19 PM »
That is a major setback for the Lakers chances in the finals, if they get there.  Injuries definitely can mess up a good team.  Bynum was starting to play in a way that really benefited the Lakers, but they weren't dependent on him, so they can maintain a certain level of play.

It's just a matter of how far down they slide without his services?  San Antonio is old and suspect. their bench isn't what it used to be.  Houston is another team that is way overrated since they haven't done anything, except put together a long win streak last season. T-Mac isn't what he used to be either. At one point, you would think he could do anything Kobe did. Kobe still does it.  When was the last time T-Mac even had 40?

If the Jazz get Boozer back, look out for them. Otherwise I think the Hornets when healthy are the best challenge for the Lakers.

They weren't good enough to beat last season's Celtics.  With Bynum, I thought they may have had the edge, without him, that edge is gone. The one thing LA now has in it's favor is that the East is now the better conference, and the three other elite teams are in the East, where they will beat each other up on the way to the finals. At this point it's not certain which team will get the first seed in the East, but that will be huge since they will only have to play one of the other teams. The 2nd and 3rd seeds will face each other and the winner will get the chance to beat #1.

Offline WayOutWest

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Re: Bynum out 8-12 weeks
« Reply #17 on: February 04, 2009, 09:20:58 PM »
The one thing LA now has in it's favor is that the East is now the better conference, and the three other elite teams are in the East, where they will beat each other up on the way to the finals.

Have you checked the standings this year?

While the EC has three "elite" teams, every other seed would have a hard time even MAKING the playoffs in the WC.  The WC has FIVE teams with 30 wins, the #4 seed Hawks at 27-20 are barely better than the Jazz at 27-22 who are not even in the playoff picture right now.  The Lakers are as good as anyone in the EC and I'd put money on the Spurs over the Cavs and Magic.

In what fantasy land is the EC better than the WC?
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Offline westkoast

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Re: Bynum out 8-12 weeks
« Reply #18 on: February 04, 2009, 10:26:38 PM »
Phil Jackson is saying Bynum will be resting for 2 weeks then after that he will do light training, on pace to resume basketball duties in a month?

Doesn't sound right to me...
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Offline rickortreat

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Re: Bynum out 8-12 weeks
« Reply #19 on: February 04, 2009, 11:50:56 PM »
The one thing LA now has in it's favor is that the East is now the better conference, and the three other elite teams are in the East, where they will beat each other up on the way to the finals.

Have you checked the standings this year?

While the EC has three "elite" teams, every other seed would have a hard time even MAKING the playoffs in the WC.  The WC has FIVE teams with 30 wins, the #4 seed Hawks at 27-20 are barely better than the Jazz at 27-22 who are not even in the playoff picture right now.  The Lakers are as good as anyone in the EC and I'd put money on the Spurs over the Cavs and Magic.

In what fantasy land is the EC better than the WC?

Try the REAL WORLD where the East has a winning record against the Western Conference.  And, your interpretation of the standings, fails to take into account the absolutely abysmal records of the bottom of the West where 5 teams have less than 20 wins.  Those WC records of the top teams are inflated by the easy pickings in their conference.

I wouldn't take the Spurs over either of those teams, and the fact remains that the Lakers have an easier road to the finals than their EC counterpart. 

Offline WayOutWest

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Re: Bynum out 8-12 weeks
« Reply #20 on: February 05, 2009, 12:44:14 AM »
Try the REAL WORLD where the East has a winning record against the Western Conference.  And, your interpretation of the standings, fails to take into account the absolutely abysmal records of the bottom of the West where 5 teams have less than 20 wins.  Those WC records of the top teams are inflated by the easy pickings in their conference.

Do you have any links to back up your claim?  I've been looking for a site that lists the WC vs EC records head to head, I have real money on the WC and I'm hoping some site will have those numbers rather than me having to crunch the numbers to collect my money.

There are 6 teams with losing records in the WC and 9 in the EC so how does that make the EC any better?  While there are a few more bottom dwellers in the WC, there are also a few more teams with playoff records.  The fact that two teams with losing records would make it into the playoffs EC while the #4 seed in the EC would probably not even make the playoffs is a pretty telling sign.

I wouldn't take the Spurs over either of those teams, and the fact remains that the Lakers have an easier road to the finals than their EC counterpart. 

I completely disagree.  While the EC champ will probably have to beat two "elite" teams, the rest of the teams that champ faces are going to be "cake walk" teams with losing records.  There will be ZERO "cake walk" teams in the WC.  The closest thing to "cake walk" teams in the WC are the Suns and Dallas.  The same Suns who have Shaq/Amare/Nash on the roster and could have HC advantage in the 1st round in the EC and the same Mavs who would definately have HC in the first round.  Heat/Sixers/Buck?  PLEASE!  They would be swept in the first round against any top seed in the WC.
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Offline Lurker

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Re: Bynum out 8-12 weeks
« Reply #21 on: February 05, 2009, 10:13:10 AM »
Try the REAL WORLD where the East has a winning record against the Western Conference.  And, your interpretation of the standings, fails to take into account the absolutely abysmal records of the bottom of the West where 5 teams have less than 20 wins.  Those WC records of the top teams are inflated by the easy pickings in their conference.

Do you have any links to back up your claim?  I've been looking for a site that lists the WC vs EC records head to head, I have real money on the WC and I'm hoping some site will have those numbers rather than me having to crunch the numbers to collect my money.
 

Rick is right that the EC has a winning record vs the west.  But his analysis of why that is so is faulty.  From this site: http://www.dougstats.com/08-09Records.html

Quote
Conference Records for 08-09

 
       Eastern   (155-135) 0.534
       Western   (135-155) 0.466
 
 
     East at home = 86 - 55 (0.610)
     West at home = 80 - 69 (0.537)
 
 

Division Records for 08-09

 
       Atlantic  (104- 96) 0.520
       Central   (109- 95) 0.534
       Southeast ( 97- 99) 0.495
       Northwest ( 97-103) 0.485
       Pacific   ( 81-120) 0.403
       Southwest (110- 85) 0.564
 
 
            Atlantic  Central   Southeast Northwest Pacific   Southwest
 Atlantic  (  0-  0) ( 24- 30) ( 33- 18) ( 12- 20) ( 19- 13) ( 16- 15)
 Central   ( 30- 24) (  0-  0) ( 25- 25) ( 16- 20) ( 23- 12) ( 15- 14)
 Southeast ( 18- 33) ( 25- 25) (  0-  0) ( 21- 10) ( 21- 11) ( 12- 20)
 Northwest ( 20- 12) ( 20- 16) ( 10- 21) (  0-  0) ( 24- 26) ( 23- 28)
 Pacific   ( 13- 19) ( 12- 23) ( 11- 21) ( 26- 24) (  0-  0) ( 19- 33)
 Southwest ( 15- 16) ( 14- 15) ( 20- 12) ( 28- 23) ( 33- 19) (  0-  0)
 
 


Where Rick misses the point is that the EC has beat up on those same bottom 6 teams in the west.  Those team's records vs the EC:

Wolves      8-9
Warriors     8-15   
Grizzlies     5-12
Thunder     5-17
Kings         0-21
Clippers     3-13

If you remove these 6 teams then the EC record vs the WC is: 68 - 106  or .390


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Offline rickortreat

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Re: Bynum out 8-12 weeks
« Reply #22 on: February 05, 2009, 11:00:39 AM »
Look. the WC teams play each other more than they do EC teams and vice-versa.  5 teams in the WC have 17 wins or less. This naturally inflates the WC records of the remaining teams in the conference.  The EC elite beats up on everyone, but gets to play the weak teams in the WC only twice, whereas they get 4 cracks at the weak teams in the East. The teams in the West play those weak teams there twice as often!

Comparing records between the conference as the final arbiter of their relative strength makes little sense. You are comparing apples and oranges,because the schedules aren't the same, and because of the difference in the records and numbers of teams in the two conferences.

You can use head to head competition, or records against common opponents to get a better idea.  Even the stats are corrupted by the extreme weakness of the bottom 5 in the West.  The Lakers have a much better point differential against those teams than it does against the rest of the conference and league.  It makes them look better than they actually are, statistically.

Looking at the stats Lurker posted, the best conference in the West is the Southwest, with a .564 winning percentage, the best in the league.  But what about their collective record against the East?  They have loosing records vs. the Atlantic and Central and a big lead over the Southest conference, the home of the weakest teams in the East.

SO the weak teams in the West benefit the leaders of the WC more than the weak teams in the East benefit their Elite teams. I will agree that there is more parity in the West than the East, but it's pretty clear by now that the East has 3 really good teams, and the West only 1.

Offline Reality

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Re: Bynum out 8-12 weeks
« Reply #23 on: February 05, 2009, 12:04:15 PM »

Where Rick misses the point is that the EC has beat up on those same bottom 6 teams in the west.  Those team's records vs the EC:

Wolves      8-9
Warriors     8-15   
Grizzlies     5-12
Thunder     5-17
Kings         0-21
Clippers     3-13

If you remove these 6 teams then the EC record vs the WC is: 68 - 106  or .390
And if you remove the Wests record vs the bottom 6 East teams, what is the resulting West record?

Offline Lurker

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Re: Bynum out 8-12 weeks
« Reply #24 on: February 05, 2009, 01:07:14 PM »

Where Rick misses the point is that the EC has beat up on those same bottom 6 teams in the west.  Those team's records vs the EC:

Wolves      8-9
Warriors     8-15   
Grizzlies     5-12
Thunder     5-17
Kings         0-21
Clippers     3-13

If you remove these 6 teams then the EC record vs the WC is: 68 - 106  or .390
And if you remove the Wests record vs the bottom 6 East teams, what is the resulting West record?

Tough to do because except for the Wizards the bottom 6 in the EC changes daily.
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Offline Reality

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Re: Bynum out 8-12 weeks
« Reply #25 on: February 05, 2009, 01:21:49 PM »
^^ psssshh. 
Just pick a recent day.

Offline Lurker

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Re: Bynum out 8-12 weeks
« Reply #26 on: February 05, 2009, 01:30:10 PM »
Look. the WC teams play each other more than they do EC teams and vice-versa.  5 teams in the WC have 17 wins or less. This naturally inflates the WC records of the remaining teams in the conference.  The EC elite beats up on everyone, but gets to play the weak teams in the WC only twice, whereas they get 4 cracks at the weak teams in the East. The teams in the West play those weak teams there twice as often!

Comparing records between the conference as the final arbiter of their relative strength makes little sense. You are comparing apples and oranges,because the schedules aren't the same, and because of the difference in the records and numbers of teams in the two conferences.

You can use head to head competition, or records against common opponents to get a better idea.  Even the stats are corrupted by the extreme weakness of the bottom 5 in the West.  The Lakers have a much better point differential against those teams than it does against the rest of the conference and league.  It makes them look better than they actually are, statistically.

Looking at the stats Lurker posted, the best conference in the West is the Southwest, with a .564 winning percentage, the best in the league.  But what about their collective record against the East?  They have loosing records vs. the Atlantic and Central and a big lead over the Southest conference, the home of the weakest teams in the East.

SO the weak teams in the West benefit the leaders of the WC more than the weak teams in the East benefit their Elite teams. I will agree that there is more parity in the West than the East, but it's pretty clear by now that the East has 3 really good teams, and the West only 1.

Rick, you are the one arguing that the EC is stronger because of their record vs the west.  So let's break that down:

East vs top 9 teams in the west:   68-106
East vs bottom 6 in the west:      87-29

So Rick the same bad teams that inflate the west records have INFLATED the eastern conference records also.  Heck the entire 20 game advantage that the EC has over the WC can be laid at the door of the Kings who are 0-21 against the East.  Remove 1 WC team and the two conferences are playing .500 ball.

So want to look at another measure...let's remove the EC top 3 and see what the interconference record are:

EC vs WC              155-135       .534
Top 3 vs WC           47-12         .797   (overall winning % .801)
Rest of EC vs WC    108-123       .467  

I'll do the same for the top 3 in the west (LA, SA, Denver)
WC vs EC            135-155         .466
Top 3 vs EC           35-18          .660
Rest of WC vs EC  100-137        .421

So the next step is to break down the "rest" of each conference...using the #4-9 seeds as of today:
EC 4-9 vs WC       59-56           .513

WC 4-9 vs EC      70-48            .593

Your argument that the WC teams inflate their records vs the bottom dwellers by playing them 4 times has a correlation.  They also have to play the other top 8 teams 4 times each also.  Meanwhile the top 3 in the EC are padding their records by playing the weaker 4-9 seeds 4 times each.  Overall the EC has the top 3 teams then the next 9 are in the west.  
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Offline Lurker

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Re: Bynum out 8-12 weeks
« Reply #27 on: February 05, 2009, 02:36:41 PM »
Rick, here is what I mean about the EC top 3...

Boston  vs WC         12-5
           vs top 9        6-4
           vs bottom 6   6-1

Cavs    vs WC         16-2
           vs top 9        8-2
           vs bottom 6   8-0

Magic   vs WC         19-5
           vs top 9        8-4
           vs bottom 6  11-1

It is obvious, Rick, that the top 3 in the EC have padded their record vs the WC against the bottom teams.
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Offline Reality

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Re: Bynum out 8-12 weeks
« Reply #28 on: February 05, 2009, 02:42:19 PM »
^^ as has the WC. 
Show us the top 3 WC vs the top 9.

Offline Lurker

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Re: Bynum out 8-12 weeks
« Reply #29 on: February 05, 2009, 02:49:25 PM »
^^ as has the WC. 
Show us the top 3 WC vs the top 9.

That is irrelevant.  The issue is EC vs WC so how the WC performs against the rest of the WC is immaterial to the discussion.

But if you are that interested take a few minutes and figure it out yourself.  All I used was ESPN's standings page and a calculator.
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