Are You Thinking What I'm Thinking? Or not.

[RickyPryor]

As I watch our poor Sixers play against teams the likes of Boston and those Lakers, I can't help noticing that we aren't in the same league with some of these teams.  I mean not even remotely in the same league.  I was at the Lakers game and it appeared as though they just toyed with us for awhile.  And then they beat the shit out of us.  Last night...same thing.

I mean the distance separating those teams (and others) from us is vast to me.  Much greater than I thought it would be entering this season.  It's the friggin' Grand Canyon, for crying out loud.

I'm beginning to think last year's run (at the end) is mostly due to young guys' legs running with more purpose when games didn't matter to alot of other teams.  Hey - I love supporting a team that tries.  Nothing better for me than intensity, desire, offensive rebounds, off the ball energy, loose ball-getting.  But that only takes us so far, right?

I think our mediocrity comes down to a combination of most everything:  No superstar...no all star caliber second guy...no very strong third guy.  (Depending on the order you choose, I think we could be considered semi-close to having these things with Brand, Miller and then Iggy...)  We don't have some exceptional coach.  School's out on the GM.  The owner's never been one to make winning Priority 1.

What's my point?

I'm wondering how many years you believe - I mean really believe - it'll be until we are legitimate contenders for a ring.

I gotta tell you...I'm thinking it might be years and years and years.  Consider:

-We'll first need a top draft pick who'll need 4-5 years until superstardom
-Or the deep pockets, know-how, luck and ammo to land a super-superstar via FA.  But once he's in place, another 2-3 years to add the pieces around him?
-Once one of these scenarios is in place...maybe another 1-2 years of being playoff-tested.

During all that we need to land a real coach (not saying Tony isn't it just yet)...and replace about, what, 8-9 of the guys we currently have?  (After all, we're now talking 7 years from now.  Who the hell will still be here in that time frame, in this day and age?)

Depressing.  On Christmas Eve no less.

Someone please bring me an early X-mas gift.  Tell me how we can get there in less than 7 years from now (and that's if everything works out just right).  Tell me how we can make it to the Promised Land in 1-2-3 years.


Because that game last night, and the one when Kobe came to town, are real eye openers for me.

[tk76-]

Things are not as bad as they seem.  I agree that this year's team falls far short of expectations, but that is do more to a poor fit then a lack of talent. 

This team has four palyers who are potential impact players:
Young age 20
Speights Age 21
Lou Age 22
Iguodala Age 24

Its possible none of them end up as superstars, but it is a nice young core that not many team's have (Maybe just Portland.)

It brings into question what the Sixers are hoping from its older players Sam, Miller and Brand.  Do they expect the young guys to be in their prime in time, or will there have to be a major turnover of the 27 and over crowd?

I'm not really going to get distraught unless Ed starts dealing away the young players for band-aid vets.

[RickyPryor]

Things are not as bad as they seem.  I agree that this year's team falls far short of expectations, but that is do more to a poor fit then a lack of talent. 

This team has four palyers who are potential impact players:
Young age 20
Speights Age 21
Lou Age 22
Iguodala Age 24

Fair enough...  But haven't most championship teams historically had a superstar, along with an all star...or maybe two?  (Maybe not Detroit, it could be argued...but teams rarely play that way these days, and they had 5 all stars.)

By the time you get decent assets for Brand, Miller and Sam...that'll be, what, 2 years?  We still need that superstar (in my way of thinking), and then role players.  After all - the young kids you mention...by that time...will not BE role players, but legitimate starters.

Am I wrong to think that, even under your vision, we're still 4 years out?

[tk76-]

Superstars do get moved in trades- usually for a really good young player, cap space and picks.  I think Shaq for Odom, picks and expirings was a perfect example.  The Sixers could be in good position to make a similar deal in a couple of years using one of the young players and an expiring Sam or Evans.

They tried to cut the corner signing Brand, but they didn't really have to sacrifice much to do it (other than some future cap flexibility.)  I would say this team is probably 3-4 years from being a legit contender, but that doesn't mean they can't be an enjoyable winner on the way up in the meantime.

We just have to get past the expectations of this season and start looking toward the future.  The Brand signing was not so much a mistake as a cause of unreasonable expectations.

[tk76-]

I guess another question is how good will Young, Speights, Lou and Dala be in 3 years?  Thoughts?

[Skates]

It all depends on how fast the youngsters come along and what changes the team makes around them.  Stefanski has been patient with the young'uns, but has stated on several occasions that being patient with the team as a whole is not his style.  There is a fine line he must walk between sacrificing the future for a lesser short term gain (think Kidd for Devin Harris trade), waiting forever for the youngsters to mature with little change around them (Atlanta Hawk model), making seminal changes that make you an instant contender (current Celtics after the trades for Allen and Garnett), or some variation in between there.

Are we at least three years away from being contenders, counting this current season as year one?  Yes, very likely we are.  I think our young talent has at least one franchise level player and one or two borderline all-stars in there as a realistic goal.  Most contenders also have a trade or two, or unheralded FA signing, that they pull off that are very lopsided that help them make that jump.  Sometimes it is for a known guy like Gasol, sometimes it is for a youngster like Kobe or for a guy that has flown under the radar or disappointed in the past - Nash going to the Mavs, Chauncey Billups type, even throw our prior trade to get a young Eric Snow in here.  This is the kind of trade or signing that we need to solve our PG problem in a big way.  I constantly rack my brain about this and who the candidates might be.  Foye is a guy who often pops into my mind as a guy who might make that kind of jump if put into a better situation, but if it was that easy I would be a successful NBA GM instead of hanging out on a message board postulating about it.

[RickyPryor]

I guess another question is how good will Young, Speights, Lou and Dala be in 3 years?  Thoughts?

Young might be my favorite of these guys.  Imagine how effective he'll be when less...raw.  Love his intensity, his willingness to do the small things.  Heck he's even a decent low-post threat.  (Do defenders forget he's left handed??)

Next, I like Lou Will alot, too.  He paid close attention to AI when he was here and has become a super-aggressive offensive player.  His mistakes, late in games last year, had me frustrated with him.  But he seems to mature all the time.  Tough kid.  Downsides?  For a guy as quick as he is...man, does his 'd' suck.  Rondo went wherever he wanted with and without the ball.  Further, I just think his size - someday - will b a factor in his longevity.  Much like DeSean Jackson's will be.

Speights.  As noted, I like tough kids.  He sure is one...  Good size, all that.  Frankly, I need more time watching him, and he needs more time being watched.  Interested to see what he's like in 2 years.

Iggy.  While he does many things well...he negates many of them by his immaturity.  He claims to be unselfish, yet there are times he has NO intentions of passing.  His ball-handling has not improved one iota.  His sissy-ish arguing with refs makes me vomit.  Most nights he can't shoot.  And his TO's late are legend.  I don't hate him...I just don't believe he should ever be built-around, or considered anything more than a THIRD guy on a great team.

Having said all that...in three years I believe Williams will be gone and maybe Iggy, too.  And if that becomes true...we might have picked up some very valuable pieces.

[Skates]

Iggy's skills are ill-suited to being a number one guy.  Once the team has an established alpha dog, he will fit in better.  Brand is not that guy as he is a second tier star as well.  I also now firmly believe that Iggy and Thad cannot co-exist long term.  Both really are small forwards and both are likely to play at too high of a level to have one come off the bench for too many more years.  Iggy is not a full-time Sg and Thad is overmatched by real PF's.  They are fine for now and even through next year, but once Thad is fully developed he will be too good to be a sixth man.

[tk76-]

I also now firmly believe that Iggy and Thad cannot co-exist long term. 

I'm still holding out hope.  Neither are finished products, and they are playing next to a PG who can't shoot.  I still hold out hope that they can be a dominant defensive pairing that triggers lots of run outs using their length.  Not just on steals, but off of contested jumpers and rebounds (both are above average for their position.)

[jemagee]

I believe they can co-exist long term - with the right coach and the right PG - someone who knows what they do well and what they don't - because Iguodala and Young do different things well and can compliment each other I believe, but it will take a better point guard and the right coaching staff

[Skates]

The only way this Thad and Iggy thing would work is:

1.  Add a better PG with long range shooting.
2.  Play an offensive scheme/defensive scheme that fit's their talents - i.e. proper coaching staff
3.  Add a shooting wing reserve like Posey
4.  Have bigs that can shoot fromthe outside as well - we are well on our way here with Brand, Speights and Jason Smith all capable from varying ranges out to the three point line for Smith (eventually).
5.  Have Thad keep developing his outside shot, while Thad and Iggy both develop their post games.

[RickyPryor]

Brand is not that guy as he is a second tier star as well. 

Is he?  Or is he possibly not fully recovered from last year's injury.  I think you can build a winner around a 20/10 PF.  Imagine how much better he'd be with a legitimate threat at the 5, and a couple outside threats on the court.

[tk76-]

I've lowered my expectations for Brand.  He certainly isn't going to carry a team on many nights, but he is a very good PF with few hole in his game when healthy.  I think his poor finishing close in has been due to health and should improve.

I am excited about the prospect of Brand and Speights really being a great combo.  Add in an improved Smith and you could have the makings of a good frontcourt rotation.  Speights has exceeded expectations, and his PF/C size concerns are lessened playing next to Brand, who can cover most centers on switches.

[Skates]

Even the 20 and 10 guy I expected, and think we may still see, is not a dominant, franchise type player.  he is or has been (bad words there) the type of player you need as your all-star level second guy.  A potential high level producer, but not a take the game by the throat guy.  Very efficient and highly productive, in fact give me a bunch of guys with varying skills at Brand's expected levels, play rock-solid D and you could have a Pistons like non-name contender.  But to ask him to carry a franchise, I don't see that he has ever done that.

BTW, I wonder how much of his loss of explosion is physical (I know he was not a leaper before, but he moved better) and how much is mental.  Being a hated Cowboys fan I recall Greg Ellis coming back from his achilles and hitting a mental wall.  He did not look explosive and the docs said there was nothing physically wrong, but that he had reached a point where he had to "punch through" so to speak, a mental barrier before he could really explode.  He eventually came around and was actually a little quicker than he was before (like Brand he dropped some weight).  Hopefully, that is all this is.

[tk76-]

I hope so.  Brand did show so promising signs with blocks and dunks before he got hurt again. 

As I said before, I think Speights will really help Brand.  No way you can ignore Speights to cheat on Brand or he will dunk on your team and talk smack (this team needed an attitude other than the Iguodala whine.)  Also, Speights has a good feel around the basket and finishes well.  he also can cover quicker PF's that might cause Brand problems.  Should be a great tandem- esp once Speights gets better on the boards.

How long until Thad, Speights and Lou are the primary scorers on this team?  Not by accident, but by design? 

I'm guessing by next year if the coaches let them.  There will be mistakes and some inconsistency relying on such young guys, but Iguodala and Brand being great glue guys should only help.