Billups for Miller?

[jemagee]

citypaper.net blog writer...

With the summer league over and training camps not begun, it is a sad time to be an NBA junkie. Some of us few die-hards get our fix from Olympic ball, some watch old game tapes, some turn their focus to the next generation of pro ballers and see what prep school kid is making a name for himself on the summer circuit. I dabble in these, but mainly I get through the long days and hot nights by playing GM - it was in doing this that I came across a trade possibility that simply makes too much sense to ever happen: Andre Miller for Chauncey Billups, straight up.

Both players averaged 17 and just under 7 last year and they were born within months of each other. They both play the point and both are second-tier stars, talent-wise. There are differences between them though - Billups is signed for four years while Miller is locked up for just one, and Billups has shown that he can be the man when the pressure is turned up.

Why the Sixers Do It

With the addition of Brand the Sixers have suddenly switched to win-now mode. Having Billups around would make Iguodala?s life so much easier, both because he would have a PG who can reliably knock down an open 3 and because he?ll have a guy to be the man on the team in the backcourt. Miller was good, but he never really scared you - plus because so many of his points came in the high post, his effectiveness might actually be mitigated a little by having a guy like Brand. Further, as this team grows up they?re going to want stability at the 1, and it is no secret that Andre Miller prefers the West Coast - the four years on Chauncey?s contract wouldn?t scare the Sixers at all.

 

Why the Pistons Do It

It is no secret that Pistons? GM Joe Dumars is open to blowing up the Sixers? core and moving building around his young core (Maxiell, Stuckey, Amir Johnson). This trade allows the Pistons to remain competitive while highlighting that core - Miller is more pass-first than Billups will ever be - and clear absurd cap space next offseason when both Miller and Sheed come off the books. They?ll get the playoff money this year and have a chance to reload without ever having to rebuild.

 

The contracts work - who says no?

(NOTE: this proposal is not based on inside information and it is not meant to be a legitimate rumor. The Philadelphia City Paper is not reporting on anything in this post)

[TheGuiltyParty]

This was also getting thrown around a bit on the other board and while I would do this deal... I just can't see why Dumars would trade Billups to a team in it's conference that would then figure to supplant them as the #2 team in the East. Plus, making such a move would finally solve the mystery that is Andre Miller.

[tk76-]

According to hoopshype, Billups 4th year is a team option:
http://hoopshype.com/salaries/detroit.htm

This would allay my concerns, because it would make Billups be only a two year contract after this year (and the 2nd year being an expiring the same time Sam, WG and Evans come off the books and Young gets reigned.

If this info is wrong, and Billups has the option to stay 4 years instead of three, I would be scared away by his contract.

Regardless, the team is looking to be overthe cap, and if they are willing to use the MLE and go into the tax, it could make them quite a team for the next 3 years- especially since Billups is big enough to play next to Lou.

If Miller is planning on going elsewhere, or won't resign to a reasonable deal, I would think this kind opf move would be a best case scenario- although I doubt the Pistons do the deal without some kind of sweetener.

[Derek Bodner]

I'd do it without thinking twice.  I think Detroit would have a hard time agreeing to it

[sixers hoops]

I think this guy is reading my realgm posts. He posted this a couple-of-hours after I suggested it on realgm, using similar reasoning.

[jemagee]

I'd do it without thinking twice.  I think Detroit would have a hard time agreeing to it

DUmars did imply a shake up this off season, and singing kwame i'm not sure qualifies...be interesting, hell i just like a writer acknowledging the long term point guard issue

[TheGuiltyParty]

I think this guy is reading my realgm posts. He posted this a couple-of-hours after I suggested it on realgm, using similar reasoning.

I honestly thought that the above blog was yours. :-)

[carolina blue]

I'm not sure I'd do it.

If you just look at the numbers, it makes some sense - they're the same age, but Billups contract isn't that long and he shoots the 3.

I'm more concerned with the intangibles.  Miller was a big part of what made the Sixers overachieve last year, he was the veteran leader of a team that showed up and played hard just about every night.  Billups was a central figure on a team that was less consistant in that regard, and I'd guess that he would be a primary part of it if Dumars were looking to trade him.

I'd probably pass and let the team try to build on last year as is.  If Miller's in great shape and the team meshes well, look to extend him for 2-3, if not look to deal in season or let him walk.

[jemagee]

I'm more concerned with the intangibles.  Miller was a big part of what made the Sixers overachieve last year, he was the veteran leader of a team that showed up and played hard just about every night.  Billups was a central figure on a team that was less consistant in that regard, and I'd guess that he would be a primary part of it if Dumars were looking to trade him.

Chauncey billups had a ring, he's an 'all-star', and his team has been one of the best in the conference year in and year out...your assertions about a piston team that is less consistent in my estimation are absurd...second best record in the league, year in and year out for the past 5 seasons one of the best regular season teams inthe league...youi'd have no idea what dumars motivations are for trading billups, maybe he can't move anyone else, maybe he wants to clear cap space for 09 (since rasheed expires as well) maybe he has to move SOMEONE and no one wants Rasheed Wallace, but your argument that Miller has more intangibles (whatever the frack they are in general) than Chauncey Billups is just silly.

I'd probably pass and let the team try to build on last year as is.  If Miller's in great shape and the team meshes well, look to extend him for 2-3, if not look to deal in season or let him walk.

That's an excellent idea, let him walk and then you're fracked at point guard (even louis williams doesn't think he's a point guard) with no way to sign a high caliber point guard cause you've got no cap room left?

[Skates]

Cool, using "frack" and "fracked" in the same post.  Commander Adama would be proud of you. 

[carolina blue]

I'm not sure how you can have "more" of something that's intangible - your words, not mine.

My point is that Miller fit really well with the roster last year, I'd rather build on that than trade for Billups before I see what I have in 08-09.

In your rush to be argumentative you seemingly skipped over my openess to trade in-season.  But really, it is a lot to ask for you to read an entire post before you spew the same vitriol that you have on every sixers/philly board on the interwebs.

Who, exactly, are these "high-caliber" pointguards that are free agents in 2009?

You cite that Lou Williams "doesn't think he's a point guard" - how tangible is that?

[sixers hoops]

I think, gathering information from different articles on the state of the Pistons, that Dumars realizes this team is not going to win another title with Billups, Rip, Prince, and Sheed as its primary 4 players. Since their title season they can't get past the conference finals and they're only getting older.

I think Dumars would like to reload to win in two or three years with Stuckey, Rip, probably Prince, and Maxiell. He can keep these four players and have cap room to make a run at a max player to complement this group. Therefore, moving Billups now means that in the summer of 2009 or 2010 he could take Billups 13 million and go get a player that would be younger, better, and allow playing time for Stuckey.

However, why make this move now? Why not wait a year? I think trading Billups now guarantees the caproom to take a shot next summer, they could have a large amount of room, and/or the following summer. Teams rarely get a player like the sixers did with their caproom, so you want to provide yourself more opportunities to use it.

Ultimately, 3 seasons from now, Dumars could envision a team with Rip, Prince, Stuckey, Maxiell, and a key free-agent. This could be more desirable than sticking with Billups for the next three years, likely not winning a championship, struggling to get Stuckey minutes, and letting Billups expire after you re-sign Rip, Stuckey, and Maxiell and have no shot at cap room.

For those who think Dumars is worried about making the Sixers better than the Pistons, I only suggested Dumars make this trade if he is willing to step back for two seasons to retool. If he is willing to take a step back by trading Billups for cap space, then winning either of the next to titles is not likely in his plans. Trading Billups for the always unreliable cap space is risky, but when considering that they likely aren't going to win the title in the next two years, I would definitely looked to the future.

[tk76-]

Looking at http://hoopshype.com/salaries/detroit.htm , if Kwame takes his 4M option, and Maxiel has a 6M cap hold, it puts the Pistons at 55M- or basically around MLE type of cap space.  The move for Miller would would drop this number to 43M, meaning 17M of cap space even with Maxiel's cap hold.  That puts them in position to get Smith or Gordon (assuming they take the QO) or maybe even Boozer.

The problem is that Detroit I believe would have to waive their Bird rights to Sheed to free up his 13M.  They would really need a center, and I dn't know who would be on the market.

[TheGuiltyParty]

Who are the key FAs next summer???

[sixers hoops]

Who are the key FAs next summer???

I don't know, but I'm guessing Josh Smith will be one.