lou will close to resigning

[Derek Bodner]

hearing he's close to a deal.  3 years at just under the MLE.  should be finalized soon.

[Skates]

hearing he's close to a deal.  3 years at just under the MLE.  should be finalized soon.

Nice.

[anklebreaker]

I like it.  May I ask where you hear this? 

[Derek Bodner]

sf isn't the only one with connections.  can't really tell more than that (if I want to keep said connections at least)

[anklebreaker]

sf isn't the only one with connections.  can't really tell more than that (if I want to keep said connections at least)

Got it.  I'm on a need to know basis, and I don't need to know. 

Move over SF, there's a new sheriff in town!

[Derek Bodner]

hah.  my source isn't neary as chatty as sf's, so there's no need to move over

[DuckyNinja]

Didn't you do that chat with Eddie last year for RealGM? :-P

Anyway, I like the 3 year part a lot.  As I've said before, the best way to make a bad situation good is to make everything line up.  This puts Dalembert, Evans, Green, and Lou-Will all on the same length contracts.  That's a lot of cap room in 2011 after everybody blows it in 2010.

[anklebreaker]

Didn't you do that chat with Eddie last year for RealGM? :-P

Anyway, I like the 3 year part a lot.  As I've said before, the best way to make a bad situation good is to make everything line up.  This puts Dalembert, Evans, Green, and Lou-Will all on the same length contracts.  That's a lot of cap room in 2011 after everybody blows it in 2010.

Nice call. 

[Sub]

Didn't you do that chat with Eddie last year for RealGM? :-P

Anyway, I like the 3 year part a lot.  As I've said before, the best way to make a bad situation good is to make everything line up.  This puts Dalembert, Evans, Green, and Lou-Will all on the same length contracts.  That's a lot of cap room in 2011 after everybody blows it in 2010.

It's also significant because that's the summer they'll probably look to give Thaddeus a big deal, if things pan out the way most are hoping/expecting.

[anklebreaker]

Didn't you do that chat with Eddie last year for RealGM? :-P

Anyway, I like the 3 year part a lot.  As I've said before, the best way to make a bad situation good is to make everything line up.  This puts Dalembert, Evans, Green, and Lou-Will all on the same length contracts.  That's a lot of cap room in 2011 after everybody blows it in 2010.

It's also significant because that's the summer they'll probably look to give Thaddeus a big deal, if things pan out the way most are hoping/expecting.

another nice call

[TheGuiltyParty]

Your source was right on about the Draft.... or at least 2/3rds of it. As for this signing, I love it! 3 years/$15MIL is perfect. If Lou keeps improving, he'll get a big payday sooner.... however, if we find out that he isn't a part of this team's longterm plans, well a 3 year deal isn't hard to move and I believe he expires the same time as Dalembert, Evans, and Green.

[tk76-]

I understand the reasoning of both parties, but it might put the Sixers in a tough position in 3 years.

I actually think Lou will show himself to be worth a big salary in 3 years.  Assuming Lou and Thad are both deserving of 10M salaries, it means that Sam would be a goner unless the team is willing to go over the tax.  Don't get me wrong, I would love to upgrade from Sam, it is more likely that Sam walks and Speights becomes the starting center.  That means the team would have to find a new PF/C soon after that when Brand needs replacing.

I would much rather take the risk of signing Lou to a 6 year deal, that way he will definitely be making < 10M.  A team can generally only afford up to 4 10M+ players under the cap.  Right now that will be Sam, Miller, Iguodala and Brand.  That could lead to contention since Thad will be a bargain star.  I anticipate in 3 years it will be Iguodala, Brand, Young and Lou.  I doubt that is enough to contend unless Speights fully reaches his potential or they find another diamond in the ruff with a later 1st rounder.

I doubt the team will be able to afford another big signing unless they are willing to go well into the tax.

[TheGuiltyParty]

I just don't see Lou really figuring into this team's longterm success. I don't see him as the PG of the future and therefore, I'm not that concerned about losing him in 3 years if he's even still here. Like I said above, I think 3 years is right for both parties. There's a risk on both sides. What if Lou doesn't continue to develop? What if he gets injured? He may have left $15MIL on the table that he might not see. The risk for the Sixers is that he proves to be a future starter on this team and that we do have to pay sooner than later but I think it's worth the risk.

[Skates]

I like it for both sides.  In three years Lou might still be nothing more than a valuable 25 mpg reserve or he might be a starter.  His UFA status at that point might guarantee he is a little overpaid, but both he and the team will kow much better where he stands.  If he is our starting PG (doubtful), he will get paid like it by us.  If he is a reserve then some team will overpay him as a UFA and we can hopefully have been planning ahead to replace him through the draft.

[tk76-]

Right or wrong (probably wrong ) I project Lou to be a real impact player in a few years, and think at 24 he will demand a near max type contract- one that will not be totally justified, but the market will pay it.

Right now Lou's value is held back over concerns over a lack of position because he has yet to establish himself.  But once a player reaches a certain staure, they are transcend positions, and teams are wiling to try and build around them.  Think Iverson, Arenas and to a lesser degree Monte Ellis.

I'm not saying Lou ever reaches AI's level, but at 24 I see him as a 20+ ppg scorer/creator that can reak havok on a defense.  He likely will never make the jump to being a 30 pt scorer like AI, but at 24 some teams will think he has that potential- and he will be very marketable- since he will make his name on winning Sixers clubs for the next 3 years.

In this scenario I would not want the Sixers to overpay to keep Lou- because AI has taught us the limits of small scoring guards- and Lou will never be as good as AI.  I am hoping the Sixers lock Lou into a 6 yr deal (starting at 4-4.5M) so that they won't have to let him go in 3 years.

Again, I'm probably overvaluing Lou because I am a fan- but remember, all of the Sixers will suddenly be overvalued now that they will get major exposure and should go deep in the playoffs.  I can imagine in 2 years Rondo will be a hot commodity based on Boston's success, whereas he would not be seen as so good if he was still playing for a lousy team.  I think as much as anyone, Lou could capitalize on the improved weapons around him.  And once Thad's handle is good, I think Lou/Iguodala/Thad could work great as a staring combo for a long period of success.