I friggin hate the phillies

[jemagee]

Tough to guage other run production type numbers because Colorado has had some awful pitching over the last 'x' number of years.

Park factor is independent of the quality of pitching staffs. 

It seems all that matters is the home runs

BTW - Fuentes isn't any better than romero this year, so why is he an improvement?

[Derek Bodner]

BTW - Fuentes isn't any better than romero this year, so why is he an improvement?

Depth.

do we have another left handed reliever?

(that kid they called up from the minors that throws a fast ball about 75 mph doesn't count).

I'd have interest in Fuentes, but probably not for what it would cost to give up.

[jemagee]

I'd have interest in Fuentes, but probably not for what it would cost to give up.

I'd rather go after another scrap heap arm like romero worked out last year

Fuentes value is just nuts and I was just saying, if he was jc romero who was on four teams last year that they were talkinga bout trading for (with the same numbers on the rockies) people just wouldn't like it, they are remembering what fuentes was, briefly, and not recalling that relievers are fungible more often than not...

[Derek Bodner]

they are remembering what fuentes was, briefly, and not recalling that relievers are fungible more often than not...

Fuentes is having a good year.  It's not like he's not producing.  But I agree his stock is way, way too high.

[The Sixer Fixer]

Tough to guage other run production type numbers because Colorado has had some awful pitching over the last 'x' number of years.

Park factor is independent of the quality of pitching staffs. 

How is it independent?  If all their SP's suck, the opposing teams scores a lot more runs, thus the things that go into a measuring a park factor are affected.  If you have an excellent staff, the opponent doesn't score as much and the park looks like a pitchers park.

[jemagee]

Tough to guage other run production type numbers because Colorado has had some awful pitching over the last 'x' number of years.

Park factor is independent of the quality of pitching staffs. 

How is it independent?  If all their SP's suck, the opposing teams scores a lot more runs, thus the things that go into a measuring a park factor are affected.  If you have an excellent staff, the opponent doesn't score as much and the park looks like a pitchers park.

Park Factor has been in place for quite a few years and is accepted by a large majority of people who work on things like this as being a good and fair way to compare the different benefits or deficiencies batters get at different parks.

Park Factor indicates that CBP is NOT as much of a band box as - and that Coors is much more batter friendly than CBP.

[Derek Bodner]

How is it independent?  If all their SP's suck, the opposing teams scores a lot more runs, thus the things that go into a measuring a park factor are affected.  If you have an excellent staff, the opponent doesn't score as much and the park looks like a pitchers park.

PF = ((homeRS + homeRA)/(homeG)) / ((roadRS + roadRA)/(roadG))

It's total runs, not just your runs.

For example, let's go by averages.  Let's assume a team (both pitching and hitting) scores the same amount at home as on the road.

Every game of the year, they lose 7-5.  They give up 2 home runs, only get 1.
((1 + 2)/(81) / ((1 + 2)/(82)
=
(3/81)/(3/81)
= 1.0

The fact the teams pitching staff stinks has no correlation to the park factor, because (presumably) the same stink rotten pitching staff is increasing the road runs per game as well.

Now, if the team has an away pitching staff and a home pitching staff, that would throw things for a loop.  I don't recall the rockies employing that method though

If all their SP's suck, the opposing teams scores a lot more runs, thus the things that go into a measuring a park factor are affected.  If you have an excellent staff, the opponent doesn't score as much and the park looks like a pitchers park.

This is exactly what Park Factor is meant to work against.  It's also part of the reason I think CBP has been labeled a hitters park (we've had great hitters, which generally lead the league in runs scored, playing there 81 games per year the past few years, and horrible pitching staffs, which creates the illusion that it's the park, and not the hitters and pitchers, scoring the runs).

[The Sixer Fixer]

I disagree.  Yes, Matt Holliday has been much better in Coors that anywhere else, but he'd go from Coors to possibly an even better hitters park.

What!?!?!?

This myth that Citizens Bank Park is one of the top hitters parks has got to stop.

First, ESPN's park factor.  Updated daily. 
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/stats/parkfactor

The stat is defined on the page.  Citizens Bank Park is a middle of the pack pitchers ballpark.  It's actually in the lower half of the league (16 out of 30) in terms of hitters parks.  A better pitchers park than hitters park!

(last year Citizens Bank Park was 14th out of 30).

Ok, need more evidence?  Let's look at individual players.  If Citizens Bank Park is such a great hitters park, it would make sense that our starting pitchers have a better ERA on the road, and our hitters have better numbers at home:
Hamels: 2.79 ERA at home, 3.53 on the road.
Myers: 3.81 at home, 8.18 on the road
Kendrick: 4.69 at home, 5.02 on the road.

Eaton does have a higher ERA at home, but he actually gives up more home runs on the road than at home (1 hr every 11.5 IP at home, 1 home run every 6 on the road.

Batters (home run rate):
Howard: 1 hr every 12.2 at bats at home, 1 every 13 at bats on the road.
Burrell: 1 hr every 20.8 at bats at home, 1 every 9.2 on the road
Utley: 1 every 11 at bats at home, 1 every 23 on the road (for what it's worth, Utley does have a higher OPS on the road).

There is no evidence to point to Citizens Bank Park to be one of the top hitters parks in the game.  It actually looks fairly well balanced.  3 of our starting 5 gives up less runs at home than on the road.  Of our big 3 hitters, 1 hits pretty much the same amount of home runs at home vs on the road (Howard), one hits considerably more on the road (Burrell), and one hits considerably more at home (Utley).

I would say CBP favors left handed pull hitters with a short porch in right field, but pretty unforgiving in left and center (which becomes even more troublesome for the right handed hitting Holliday).  It was a slight hitters park the first season, but the changes have leveled it out to where it's about average.  There's no way you can argue that CBP is anywhere near the hitters haven Coors field is, which has been a hitters park since its exception with (2nd in park factor in 2001, 1st in 2002, 4th in 2003, 1st in 2004, 1st in 2005, 2nd in 2006, 3rd in 2007, 6th in 2008.

Seriously, there's just no way.

in '04 - 5th best park for HR's
in '05 - 2nd best park for HR's
in '06 - 6th best park for HR's
in '07 - 1st in HR's
in '08 - #'s down but still 12th

Power wise, this is one of the most favorable parks in the majors and that's a fact.

In run production, in those same years, we have been 12th, 2nd, 8th, 14th and 16th.  When you talk about runs, there a lot more factors that dictate that.  P staffs, lineups, etc.  With HR's that really takes out many of the other factors and is just individual batter vs. individual P

[Derek Bodner]

In run production, in those same years, we have been 12th, 2nd, 8th, 14th and 16th.  When you talk about runs, there a lot more factors that dictate that.  P staffs, lineups, etc.  With HR's that really takes out many of the other factors and is just individual batter vs. individual P

Please re-read my post.  Park Factor/runs has nothing to do with pitching staffs and lineups.  It's a much better indicator than solely home runs.


Also, compare who has benefited.  Howard has 79 home runs at home, 79 home runs on the road for his career.  Since 2004, Burrell has 70 at home, 72 on the road.  Guys like Utley are the ones benefiting.  Dead pull left handed hitters.  Not power right handers, or guys like Howard who go to center and opposite field quite a bit.  Hollidays a right handed hitter.  If you look at the splits of our right handed power hitters, they do not benefit.

[Skates]

Don't need Fuentes, once Myers sucks again as a starter his home will become the 8th inning and we call up Happ or Carasco to take a spot in the rotation.  Holiday's splits away from Coors have always scared me.  He is overvalued, mainly a Coors creation.

[The Sixer Fixer]

In run production, in those same years, we have been 12th, 2nd, 8th, 14th and 16th.  When you talk about runs, there a lot more factors that dictate that.  P staffs, lineups, etc.  With HR's that really takes out many of the other factors and is just individual batter vs. individual P

Please re-read my post.  Park Factor/runs has nothing to do with pitching staffs and lineups.  It's a much better indicator than solely home runs.


Also, compare who has benefited.  Howard has 79 home runs at home, 79 home runs on the road for his career.  Since 2004, Burrell has 70 at home, 72 on the road.  Guys like Utley are the ones benefiting.  Dead pull left handed hitters.  Not power right handers, or guys like Howard who go to center and opposite field quite a bit.  Hollidays a right handed hitter.  If you look at the splits of our right handed power hitters, they do not benefit.

I'm tired so maybe I'm misunderstanding this, but let me ask this...

If you take Coors numbers on park factor, a lot of the favorable #'s could be attributed to the fact that they play the majority of their road games in seriously favorable pitcher parks (SD, LAD, ARI, SF).  Would than not make Coors run production look extreemly favorable?  Also, those are parks that Holliday has struggled pretty bad with in his career, thus impacting his splits more than other players.  

Also, maybe his disparity is more due to the comfort of playing at home (more a mental thing).  Who's to say he would not adopt CBP like that?  I serioulsy think some people focus on #'s too much.  Holliday is a great hitter...I don't care where's he's hitting, he's better than our options like Burrell, Jenkins, Taguchi, Werth, etc.  

[Derek Bodner]

If you take Coors numbers on park factor, a lot of the favorable #'s could be attributed to the fact that they play the majority of their road games in seriously favorable pitcher parks (SD, LAD, ARI, SF)

Ari, SF, and LAD really aren't huge pitchers parks.  Arizona is actually a very good hitters park.  Sf and lad are about league average.  Petco's the only hugely favorable pitchers park.

Holliday is a great hitter...I don't care where's he's hitting, he's better than our options like Burrell, Jenkins, Taguchi, Werth, etc. 

He is better than those guys, but not worth the cost of upgrade (both in terms of salary, which would then cost us players currently on our roster, and in terms of prospects).

I guess we'll just have to disagree.  I don't see Holliday sustaining his success when moving away from Coors, and while he will still probably be productive, I don't think he's worth the cost.  If I'm going to mortgage the farm (and Marson + Carrasco is trading our two best prospects IMO), I want to do it for pitching.  If you make this move, you have absolutely nothing to use in future years should this not work out.

[The Poster]

Seems Jason Stark does not agree with most of the consensus on this board...even is ok with Blanton trade...

http://proxy.espn.go.com/chat/chatESPN?event_id=21637


Maybe it will work out for the Phils. But their chances for WS are not going to happen this year.

[jemagee]

What does Steve Philips think though?

[jemagee]

So

Blanton/Santana
Myers/Maine
Moyer/Perez

and ESPN tells me the phils have a pitching advantage in shea?  Are you kidding me?

Oh yeah, Todd Zolecki openly compares Blanton to Eaton - woo hoo - mediocre 5th pitcher for mediocre 5th pitcher...thank god they gave up two of their best prospects for a fatter adam eaton