http://blog.derekbodner.com/2008/06/30/thoughts-on-the-nba-draft/
# I take Derrick Rose with my first pick. I?ll make another post about this shortly, but I do agree with him as the top selection.
# I don?t really like the Mayo/Love swap for either teams. Minnesota got a coup trading some bad contracts for the guy they wanted and another contributor (Mike Miller). That being said, I do think Mayo is the considerably better talent. Love?s foot speed is always going to scare me at the next level. Whereas I think Mayo will be an above average (and possibly very good) wing defender, I think Love?s always going to be a liability defensively, particularly on the pick and roll. I do think Love?s going to be a good player, I just don?t think he has great player potential because of his defense. Meanwhile, I like that Memphis got the better player, but with their already crowded backcourt, was that a position of need? Plus the bad contracts they received are going to hamper their rebuilding. Wasn?t the reason Gasol was traded to get yourselves financial flexibility? Will Mayo even want to be there in 4 years? I don?t know. Memphis could be in for a disastrous few years.
# Selecting Westbrook at 4 would scare me. Westbrook is a fine prospect, and may very well turn into one of the better players in the draft, but he has a LOT of question marks. He did increase his level of play when Collison was out earlier in the year, but that was a very small sample size. After playing very little his freshman year, he had a relatively small role in the Bruins half court offense this year, getting nearly 30% of his offense in transition. Will he have the playmaking ability to play the point full time? Will he have the size and outside shot to play the SG full time? That?s a lot of question marks for a guard drafted 4th overall.
# On Seattle, Ibaka?s a nice talent at that level in the draft, but will he even come over? Seems like a huge risk, when there were other talented players available.
# Count me as one of the few not in complete love for Danilo Gallinari. It?s not that I don?t think he can be a productive player in the NBA, he certainly can. He has a very diverse offensive skillset. But just like Love, his foot speed is going to be a huge, huge concern. Can you really build your team around a wing player with mediocre (or worse) defense? That?s what NY is going to try to accomplish. Good luck to them, but I don?t see it. That?s not even questioning whether he has the ballhandling to create opportunities for his teammates.
# I thought Eric Gordon went at the right spot in the draft. Hopefully they don?t try to pigeon hole him into playing the point, which he?s not.
# I don?t think Joe Alexander is worth his draft position. I liked Alexander as a prospect when he was in the teens, but at 8? I know he?s a great athlete, and the combine numbers were freakish. But at some point, you have to play basketball too. It?s not that Joe can?t play, he?s definitely got some skills. But we?re talking about a SF with questionable ball handling, an inconsistent jump shot, and worries about his lateral quickness defending NBA 3?s.
# DJ Augustin?s a head scratcher at 9. I do like his overall PG play, but his size is a huge, huge question mark going forward. Not only will he probably struggle defensively because of it, but he may find it harder to get his shot off in the pro?s. You don?t want to put too much into one game, but his game against Memphis has to raise at least a yellow flag about this with the struggle he had against the taller, more athletic, Derrick Rose. And when you just drafted a PG top 5 a few years ago? Head scratcher.
# I think Brook Lopez is a good value pick at 10. He?s not a superstar, but in a league starved for coordinated size, I have little doubt Brook will be a starter, and possibly even an all-star once or twice down the line.
# At what point do we admit that Kevin Pritchard is making other GM?s look foolish? Ending the season with the 13th pick, and all of a sudden ending the draft with Bayless and Batum is masterful. Not only is Bayless an incredible talent for where he went, but he fits Portland incredibly well. There?s no question Bayless has the tools to score in this league, and score he will. The questions came over whether he had the instincts to play the 1 or the size to play the 2. With Brandon Roy, it won?t matter. Brandon can take the distributing pressure off Bayless, allow him to score, and Roy can defend the SG position. Absolutely perfect.
(And I do think Bayless has a chance to become a good distributor as well. The only real concern I had was a team drafting him to be their SG, as I felt he?d struggle defensively. Problem solved).
# I thought Thompson went high. I think Sacramento probably panicked when both Augustin and Bayless went 9 and 11. With Indiana just getting Ford, they probably figured at least Augustin would be there at 12, and got absolutely giddy when Bayless fell out of the top 10. I just don?t think Thompson?s going to be that productive of a pro. I don?t see his post game translating, I think he?s primarily going to be a face-up PF in the NBA. And I think his frame is going to become an issue. He might develop into a starter, but I think his potential is limited.
# Randolph and Rush went about where I expected them to. I don?t think Rush is an answer for Indy, but he?s at least a piece. Had they not just traded for Ford, I thought Bayless would have been a much better piece for them. But I don?t think Ford and Bayless could have co-existed (you know how I said Roy might be the perfect SG for Bayless to play next to? Ford might be the worst PG for him to play next to. Oil and water). Randolph just worries me as a prospect. His athleticism, length, body control and ability to handle the ball in the open court are things you drool over. His lack of consistent perimeter game makes him a questionable fit at SF, and his 197 lb frame make it hard to imagine him as a PF prospect. I guess he was drafted to make Brandan Wright feel better about his muscle development.
# I thought Robin Lopez went too high. Just too much talent left to draft a role player. I don?t see him being much more than a bench player throughout his career. A good one, but I shoot for a starter here.
# In a similar vein, I thought Hibbert went about where he should have.
# Next you have the project PF?s. I won?t spend too much time on Speights, as I?ll do that in a later post, but I did have him as the highest rated out of Speights/Hickson/Arthur/McGee/Koufos/Jordan. This is pretty much the list of ?guys who should have gone back to school? portion of the draft.
# Next on my list was Hickson. He?s a project (little face-up game, work in progress jump shot, bad team defense), but he has one one skill set that is extremely valuable in today?s NBA. His footwork in the post was as good as anyone in this draft. Had he gone back to school, he has lottery talent.
# McGee intrigues me, but he?s a guy who to me has a much higher chance of being a career backup than he does of putting all his physical tools together. He just has very little offensive game, and even his rebounding is suspect at times. Clearly there?s room in this league for a shotblocker, but I thought he went a few spots too high. He joins a long line of specialist big men at Washington, all of whom aren?t good enough to be a complete player.
# Arthur?s drop was surprising. The concerns about his Kidney I thought were overblown. The bigger concern to me was his size (6′8.5″) and weight (216 lbs). Particularly the latter. If he can put in 15-20 lbs in the next few years, he?s going to make a lot of people look foolish. Had he gone back to Kansas as the focal point of the offense I thought he could have gone a long way towards quelling some of the fears about his inconsistency. Again, he probably shouldn?t have stayed in the draft.
# Koufos probably had the least to gain by returning to school. I think he?s an interesting prospect offensively, and that jump shot is one of the prettier ones to come out in recent years for a big man, and I think he might have a fair (but not huge) amount of success in the post. But his defense and rebounding are huge question marks. And is he a good fit with Okur? I?m not sure I see it. Still, a nice value pick this late in the draft.
# I didn?t like Donte Green as a prospect in the teens. His shot selection and defense were too big of question marks that I didn?t think had a great chance of being corrected. At 28? Great value, as he clearly has talent. I do think Memphis is a bad fit for him though, and he may be forced to try to play out of position at PF to get some minutes.
# Another player I hated in the teens (or even higher as he was considered top 5 at one point) is DeAndre Jordan, who was the epitome of project and had no business being in this draft. He didn?t have the basketball skills, basketball IQ, or fundamentals to be considered a top prospect. And he found this out the hard way. That being said, someone with his size, length, and athleticism is a great find at the un-guaranteed contract of 35.
# One last player comment, put me on the Alexis Ajinca fan club. I got a chance to watch a lot of tape on him, and he?s not a 7′ stiff. His jump shot is consistent, and should be a weapon in the NBA, and his potential as a shot blocker with that wingspan is obvious. He even has some ballhandling, and a little bit of post moves (although he?s going to have a devil of a time establishing and holding post position, with that high center of gravity and very slight frame). He?s the type that if he goes top 10, he has a high chance of being a bust in a few years. But at 20? Very little ?bustability?.
Thanks Derek, I always appreciate hearing your thoughts.
I understand your point on Mayo, I think he could be great. I just think many people are undervaluing Love. He has his flaws, but he is a surprisingly good athlete. He went 35" in vertical leap at the combine, which was well into the top 1/2 of the players, same as Beasley. He doesn't have a huge reach, but it is more than acceptable. I understand your concerns about D, but there have been a lot of players who were not quick nor particularly good defenders who were great players, including his new GM, and his teammate in Boston the GM at Indy. I think he will be a very good pro, but Mayo has a higher ceiling.
I liked Bayless as a pick. I believe that between him and Roy they can be a very effective backcourt. Read somewhere that statistically Bayless projects to be similar to Barbosa, or Ben Gordan, two players Portland tried hard to trade for before the draft. I think Bayless will be very effective in the pick and roll, because if the guard goes under the pick he shoots over the top, and if he goes over the pick, Bayless goes to the basket, giving LMA and Oden a mismatch against a guard. This will work very effectively as well in a pick and pop with LMA, Outlaw, Webster and Frye. I like that he goes hard to the rim, and can finish at the basket, and I think he will be effective in an uptempo game. When the Blazers need to become more deliberate, and have a pace for running a set offense, then I think you will see Brandon Roy initiate the offense. He is very good in the pick and roll, and feeding the post because of his height, and he is also very good with his hesitation/change pace moves. He uses this to create space for himself and others like LMA and Outlaw, and I think he can make Martell Webster more effective.
I know nothing of Batum, and of all the great things KP has done I am getting a little frustrated with the buy a pick and use it on a Euro who may or may not work out. It is OK to do that once in a while, but this is the 5th time he has done it, and right now it looks like only Fernandez is even a likely rotation player. The total cost of all these moves could well end up being $30 million for just one guy. We went though this spending unwisely phase once before I would just as soon not do it again. Now maybe Batum will work out great and that would be super, but personally I would have preferred Arthur.
