Lakers/Spurs Series

[WayOutWest]

Who wins? Why? What do you look for? 

Lakers will probably get pounded on the glass.  TD and Kurt will be all over the boards.  I expect the Lakers front line to get roughed up a bit in this series like they were against the Jazz.  Experience will be a factor but not as much as it was in the Hornets/Spurs series because Kobe and Fisher will know what to do in crunch time.  The role and bench players are where the Spurs have the advantage.  The Lakers will have their hands full with TP and Manu but the key will be how the Lakers defend TD.  If the Lakers have to double team TD on a consistent basis the Spurs long range shooters will have a field day because the Lakers suck defending the 3, they do not close out on shooters well.  Plus, having to double TD or collapse on penetration by TP and Manu will allow Kurt or Fabs to have a field day on the glass, something Kurt might do anyways.

This is going to be an amazing series, as will be the Celtics/Pistons series.  Great baskeball is on the horizon.

[SPURSX3]

Spurs in seven....the reason?  Because we still owe L.A. for .4 seconds...


whoever wins will eat up detroit...

[westkoast]

I pick.....wait for it...

Wait for it.....


Wait for it.....

The Lakers 

I have a few areas that I think the Lakers have an advantage in and should put them over the top.  These are based on being able to watch both teams quite a bit in the playoffs.  I've pretty much thrown out anything from the regular season.  Not going to pick number of games but it won't be a short series that's a guarantee.

1) The Hornets did not have a Kobe Bryant.  Chris Paul is a great player but when it comes to clutch baskets, solid defense at the end of the game, and scoring at will he is not there.  While the Spurs have two defenders who play Kobe well he is still the best player in the game and his reads on the defenses this far have been top notch.  Bowen had more success with Kobe when Kobe tried to take more shots in a game.  Now that he moves the ball better then he has in the past I don't think Bowen does as good of a job.  Just my take.  I still expect Bowen to do a solid job but not fare quite as well.

2)  Lakers interior passing could be an issue for the Spurs.  With both the Suns and Hornets the Spurs faced teams where 80% of the assists were coming from a perimeter player.  With the Lakers they share the ball very well and Pau Gasol is an extremely talented post passer.  As is Lamar Odom.  As is Luke Walton.  This will either pull Duncan away from the basket cuz he will be on Gasol or it could cause Tim to work harder on defense to come over to provide help on a cutter.  Fabs or Thomas are going to be in foul trouble often.

3) Forcing the score to stay around 80-85 points a game against an offense clicking as well as the Lakers offense is for 3 games is tough.  If they are able to do it then it's a true testament to how great this squad is on that end of the floor.  The reason I say 80-85 for 3 games is I don't think they can outscore the  Lakers more then one game.  It is going to have to be done with defense if they want to get 4. 

I'd like to hear everyone else's keys/takes on the series as well.  I think it is going to be awesome and should provide a lot of quality basketball talk on this board.

[SPURSX3]

I still see the same formula for beating LA, not that that makes the task any easier, but let kobe think he has to carry the team - shut everyone else down.  The triangle should work MUCH better against the Spurs with this squad since you have a kobe, odom, gasol option now - but I still think if our bench steps up and hits three's that will undermine the Laker defense quite a bit.  Hit a few outside shots and drive it in, hit a few from outside and then drive it in, Tony and Manu have to be ON every game - no doubt.  I Don't see Gasol being able to handle Tim, so we will see how PJ decides to help out.  I going to stick with 7 games being eeked out by the Spurs.

[Lurker]

Great analysis koast...where is the defensive side of it?   


I thought it was funny how the TNT crew kept harping about how difficult it would be for the Spurs to score against the length and athleticism of the Lakers.  How they kept harping about the Lakers defense.  And how the Hornets lost the game/series but not how the Spurs won.

I don't have time for more analysis but IMO the difference will be on defense.  The Spurs play a physical defense but not the foul them senseless approach of the Jazz.  Bowen makes Kobe work for his points by playing great at denying him the ball.  Gasol has always struggled against Duncan at both ends of the court although he has never had a player like Kobe to help him get easy looks.  But still Pau has never been able to contain Duncan.  And I want to know who will stop both Parker and Ginobili from the perimeter.  Kobe can guard only one and if he has to put 40+ minutes of effort on the defensive end then his offense will suffer.

Another key will be the short turnaround for the Spurs between series.  If they continue with the intensity they showed last night then I think they can take one of the first two in LA.  And then I expect the Spurs to win.  If the Lakers win the first 2 then I think they take the series.

[msc]

This is like deja vu all over again. 

I picked the Spurs to win it all this year so I'll say the Spurs in 7.

I agree with Lurker that it will come down to defense and the Spurs have shown that they can play on that end of the floor more consistently than LA. 

Bench production will be critical as well, IMO.  If the Spurs "seasoned" bench are knocking down their outside shots LA's in trouble.  On the other side, LA needs it's young bench to step up.  Farmar has to regain his confidence.  Vujacic, Ronny and Luke have to show up for us to have a chance. 

[SPURSX3]

Is Farmar the kid with HUGE ears??? 

[westkoast]

Great analysis koast...where is the defensive side of it?   

I am taking the cue from my team and only briefly mentioning it for short stretches.  3 minutes at a time.

Defensively I don't think Fisher has any chance with Tony Parker.  He is just too fast for him and he doesn't have first hand experience with him in practice like he did with Deron.  I think he is the player you let go off.  While his jumper is money now I still think you live with giving him those looks.  I much rather see him shoot jumpers then get lay ups obviously.

Pau Gasol may not be able to guard Duncan but Derek Fisher's help defense in the post is top notch.  Which also plays into what I mentioned above about conceding jumpers to Parker.  If Fish cheats into the middle to help Pau with Duncan that gives Parker open jumpers.  If they can bait him into taking those and Fisher is able to be effective in making Duncan cough the ball up that would be excellent for their chances.

Also..Trevor Ariza is back.  While his timing isn't there (which matters more on the offensive end) the coaching staff says he looks very good and they are very happy that he is back as it gives them another quality perimeter defender.  I would imagine he gets the task of guarding Manu.  Welcome back to the squad...your first assignment is to guard Ginobili!!!  Awesome gift from the coaching staff to Trevor.

The Lakers could out score the Spurs if the defense starts to sputter for stretches (and it will).  Not that I think that is the way to go and of course it didn't work for the Hornets or Suns but I feel the Lakers are a better defensive squad, when they actually put in the effort, then either of those teams.

[WayOutWest]

Also..Trevor Ariza is back.  While his timing isn't there (which matters more on the offensive end) the coaching staff says he looks very good and they are very happy that he is back as it gives them another quality perimeter defender.  I would imagine he gets the task of guarding Manu.  Welcome back to the squad...your first assignment is to guard Ginobili!!!  Awesome gift from the coaching staff to Trevor.

That is excellent news!  My biggest concern is Kobe guarding Manu.  Kobe can not expend too much energy for an entire game/series trying to guard Manu.  Manu could also get Kobe into foul trouble.  For the Lakers to have a change Kobe needs to be on the floor as much as possible.  Since Manu does not have to guard Kobe it is not like Kobe can force Manu to play D and have it affect his offense.  With Ariza back I think the Lakers are looking good.  I think the Lakers take this series, 6 or 7 games is the safe bet.

[Lurker]

Also..Trevor Ariza is back.  While his timing isn't there (which matters more on the offensive end) the coaching staff says he looks very good and they are very happy that he is back as it gives them another quality perimeter defender.  I would imagine he gets the task of guarding Manu.  Welcome back to the squad...your first assignment is to guard Ginobili!!!  Awesome gift from the coaching staff to Trevor.

That is excellent news!  My biggest concern is Kobe guarding Manu.  Kobe can not expend too much energy for an entire game/series trying to guard Manu.  Manu could also get Kobe into foul trouble.  For the Lakers to have a change Kobe needs to be on the floor as much as possible.  Since Manu does not have to guard Kobe it is not like Kobe can force Manu to play D and have it affect his offense.  With Ariza back I think the Lakers are looking good.  I think the Lakers take this series, 6 or 7 games is the safe bet.

But who's minutes does Ariza take?  Radman's - give up the outside shooting?  Walton - give up the passing?  Fisher - give up the leadership?


Does PJ pull an Avery and change his rotation to match up with the lower seed?

[WayOutWest]

Also..Trevor Ariza is back.  While his timing isn't there (which matters more on the offensive end) the coaching staff says he looks very good and they are very happy that he is back as it gives them another quality perimeter defender.  I would imagine he gets the task of guarding Manu.  Welcome back to the squad...your first assignment is to guard Ginobili!!!  Awesome gift from the coaching staff to Trevor.

That is excellent news!  My biggest concern is Kobe guarding Manu.  Kobe can not expend too much energy for an entire game/series trying to guard Manu.  Manu could also get Kobe into foul trouble.  For the Lakers to have a change Kobe needs to be on the floor as much as possible.  Since Manu does not have to guard Kobe it is not like Kobe can force Manu to play D and have it affect his offense.  With Ariza back I think the Lakers are looking good.  I think the Lakers take this series, 6 or 7 games is the safe bet.

But who's minutes does Ariza take?  Radman's - give up the outside shooting?  Walton - give up the passing?  Fisher - give up the leadership?


Does PJ pull an Avery and change his rotation to match up with the lower seed?

Easy call, Radman loses minutes.  If Manu comes off the bench I expect Ariza to follow him into the game.

[westkoast]

Also..Trevor Ariza is back.  While his timing isn't there (which matters more on the offensive end) the coaching staff says he looks very good and they are very happy that he is back as it gives them another quality perimeter defender.  I would imagine he gets the task of guarding Manu.  Welcome back to the squad...your first assignment is to guard Ginobili!!!  Awesome gift from the coaching staff to Trevor.

That is excellent news!  My biggest concern is Kobe guarding Manu.  Kobe can not expend too much energy for an entire game/series trying to guard Manu.  Manu could also get Kobe into foul trouble.  For the Lakers to have a change Kobe needs to be on the floor as much as possible.  Since Manu does not have to guard Kobe it is not like Kobe can force Manu to play D and have it affect his offense.  With Ariza back I think the Lakers are looking good.  I think the Lakers take this series, 6 or 7 games is the safe bet.

But who's minutes does Ariza take?  Radman's - give up the outside shooting?  Walton - give up the passing?  Fisher - give up the leadership?


Does PJ pull an Avery and change his rotation to match up with the lower seed?

I think you give up Radman's streaky shooting to keep Kobe's energy level high and to keep him out of foul trouble.  Really Radman's outside shooting is nice but his brain farts on defense really negate anything positive he does on the offensive end.

Walton will come off the bench so I don't see Ariza taking his minutes or they slide one of them down to the PF spot.  They don't have to worry about size playing against Kurt Thomas or Oberto on the offensive end.

[Lurker]

They don't have to worry about size playing against Kurt Thomas or Oberto on the offensive end.

Unless you are trying to keep them off the boards.

[westkoast]

They don't have to worry about size playing against Kurt Thomas or Oberto on the offensive end.

Unless you are trying to keep them off the boards.

Doesn't matter either way.  The Lakers couldn't out rebound the Sparks at this point.

[WayOutWest]

Doesn't matter either way.  The Lakers couldn't out rebound the Sparks at this point.

Exactly.  Even Turiaf, a guy who is all energy and hustle, was not very effective on the boards.  The only positive is the Spurs do not put 4 guys on the court who will crash the offensive boards.  When you had Okur, Boozer, AK and Harpring on the court you had 4 guys who could crash the boards and out muscle which ever Laker was guarding them, especially when you put Milsap into the mix.  The Spurs do not have that much size at that many positions to do what the Jazz did to the Lakers.  The only lineup the Spurs can put on the court that could dominate the Lakers the way the Jazz did would be to put TD, Kurt and Flabs on the court at the same time but I have not seen that lineup yet.

I think the Spurs will win the battle of the boards but they will not dominate the way the Jazz did, at least I hope not.