Author Topic: Let's help Geoff Petrie "Fix" the Kings.  (Read 2564 times)

Offline JoMal

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Let's help Geoff Petrie "Fix" the Kings.
« on: December 28, 2007, 05:35:07 PM »
Since we are spending a considerable amount of time on the progress of such teams as the Utah Jazz (Ted - your wife is calling; Dead Ted, tell your wife to stop calling), and the Philadelphia 76'ers (Rick, it is simple, get bigger and more athletic in your front line), I have decided you are all ready to help Geoff Petrie with his problems - namely, to make the Kings more competive.

First off, draft picks are next to useless. Unless you are getting a truly bonifide superstar our of college, a Foreign League, or high school (HS superstars not going to happen any longer), that lottery pick has a fifty-fifty chance of giving you nothing but lack of cap space to go after a free agent who REALLY might help your team.

That said, Petrie has been fairly successful in drafting useful NBA players out of either Europe or lesser known programs, and that is even with the harder task of having to chose AFTER the "bonifide" lottery players are all gone. Guys like Jason Williams, Gerald Wallace, Peja Stojakovich, Hedo Turkoglu, Kevin Martin, and more recently Francisco Garcia, Quincy Douby, and Spencer Hawes have shown that he certainly knows what he is doing there, because none of these players looked likely to succeed immediately on the NBA scene...and none did... but later they all had something to offer or appear they might some day.

The problem is, Petrie is not getting that bonifide superstar from his picks. Martin is the closest, but unless he morphs into the modern version of Reggie Miller (same build), that hidden gem of an NBA player that comes along after the tenth pick is just a dream. So while the Kings are loaded with potential, it does not appear to be happening via the draft.

Another unfortunate problem for the Kings is that they make way too much use of the injured list. Every year, at least one significant player is out for weeks, but usually it is more like three or four players. Mike Bibby and Sharif Abdur-Rahim have yet to play this year, and SAR is unlikely to. Martin will be out a month with a strained groin. So the Kings are once again looking at February on to have at least most of their players healthy, just like in any of the last ten years or so.

So we are looking at how Petrie fills out his squad in a typical year. He waits. He watches. Things tend to clear up after the season starts, or right before. He notices that a Beno Udrith is on the outs in San Antonio, waits for them to dump him off on the Wolves, who don't even bother to look at him before cutting him, and bingo, the Kings have a terrific fill-in point guard until Bibby gets back. Then what? Well, the trade deadline in February is likely to see Bibby traded. But who, and for what, will be willing to deal for him? Udrith clearly can handle the point for now, so Bibby could bring in some relief elsewhere.

The other trade bait has always been Artest, but with his current level of play, I do not see Petrie moving him any longer before the end of the season. Sure, he can opt out of his contract after this year, and certainly plans to, but he is a nightmare for opposing players to deal with. As a small forward, he simply overpowers anyone put in front of him. And this year, he is doing everything better then he did before, so Petrie is not so interested in trading him. Unless......he gets what he really wants in return.

While Mikki Moore is decent, and Brad Miller certainly did himself no harm in getting in terrific shape in the off-season (losing twenty pounds and adding strength), the big man gap (can you say rebounding help?) between the Kings and everyone else is huge. Along with a lack of overall team athletism, the Kings are doomed for a long season regardless of the success Theus has actually brought to this team. I know, there are skeptics out there about how well Reggie Theus would do, but at least on that point, the Kings have greatly improved. Theus actually has done more then just say the team had to improve defensely - it has, incredibly, accomplished just that. And the team ball movement is getting better and better, so we are seeing less and less of the isolation plays, even by Artest, which is simply amazing.

But how would all this work out if Theus had some bonifide talent spread out on the team, especially help at the four position, which is not looking good yet, though Hawes may be the long term answer there? Spencer has a high basketball IQ, but questionable knees. Still, he looks like he will eventually belong.

Trades and free agency. Those look like how best to fix what ails this team. We are loaded at the two spot, with our last three draft picks before Hawes all natural shooting guards, or "swingmen" (I hate that term). Needed - rebounders/shotblocker and athletism.
"We must not confuse dissent with disloyalty.....We will not be driven by fear into an age of unreason.....We are not descended from fearful men, not from men who feared to write, to speak, to associate and to defend causes that were for the moment unpopular....We cannot defend freedom abroad by deserting it at home."

Offline westkoast

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Re: Let's help Geoff Petrie "Fix" the Kings.
« Reply #1 on: December 28, 2007, 05:49:23 PM »
How about Mike Bibby and SAR for Dalembert and Andre Miller  :o

All corny jokes aside.... Brad Miller is only getting older and SAR is just a body.  That is it.  You literally could replace him with anyone that is 6'10 in this league.  So right now they are really lacking in the big man department.   Poor rebounding and next to none when it comes to shot blocking.  The Kings are horrible on the back boards.  If you say their defense has improved ill have to go with that but why are they so bad on the glass?  Clearly it is hard to score the basketball as much as the other squad if you are always being out rebounded.
« Last Edit: December 28, 2007, 05:54:04 PM by westkoast »
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Offline JoMal

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Re: Let's help Geoff Petrie "Fix" the Kings.
« Reply #2 on: December 28, 2007, 06:24:41 PM »
Yeah, the Kings started the year like the basketball was greased, trying to rebound it. They now have a few games where the Kings actually outrebounded the opponent, but it takes 48 minutes of solid effort for those games. The defense has just improved. Better rotations - hands in the passing lanes - staying in front of their man more consistently. It all adds up by the end of the game. But the lack of a go-to player (Artest likes to be considered that guy, but clearly is not. Martin could be, but not with Artest around) makes it hard to finish games. We won that Denver game - until Udrith and Miller missed four foul shots at the end. We just need one for overtime.

The atrociousness in the lack of athletism is galling. Miller never was fast or could jump, but he was 'quick', if you know what I mean. Moore as a starting power forward is just weird. He has very poor hands, for one, but he can't put on any weight, period. He likes to thunder down dunks, which is okay, but he needs to, you know, BE THERE to receive the pass and then it would work better if he handled the passes when he is. He brings enthusiasm, though. I cringe when Theus has to put Kenny Thomas in the game.

The thing is, there is some talent on this team, but it is not there in EACH game, and for this team to win consistently, they have to devote 48 minutes to winning, and they can not do it. Salmons has been great in driving the lane and scoring (plus 1), but against Denver, Camby shoved his lane shots back in his face over and over. That type of thing. Artest was lights out shooting the ball at the start of that game, then missed everything against Boston. Miller averaged a double/double on the last road trip and now seems to be out enjoying the holidays back home while the games are going on. 
"We must not confuse dissent with disloyalty.....We will not be driven by fear into an age of unreason.....We are not descended from fearful men, not from men who feared to write, to speak, to associate and to defend causes that were for the moment unpopular....We cannot defend freedom abroad by deserting it at home."

Offline westkoast

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Re: Let's help Geoff Petrie "Fix" the Kings.
« Reply #3 on: December 29, 2007, 12:18:27 PM »
JoMaL if you feel they are not getting the most out of their players each game wouldn't that fall under Reggie's domain? 

I didn't get to catch the game last night because it wasn't on at the place I was at last night but they got out rebounded again!

Would it be beneficial to maybe move Artest in order to get a big man?!  Seems like you feel he does more harm then good as far as getting the team into a flow.  Or is it that no one else wants to step up and take that role so he takes it upon himself?    Maybe a Bibby/SAR package deal for a rebounder/defender type guy and a pick?  Maybe instead of Kenny Thomas...Kurt Thomas  :D
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Offline rickortreat

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Re: Let's help Geoff Petrie "Fix" the Kings.
« Reply #4 on: December 29, 2007, 12:48:36 PM »
It's hard to fix a team if you don't know what they have.  The last time they played the Sixers, they destroyed them, and Mikki Moore had a field day.  Last night was a revenge game for the Sixers and demonstrated how far they have come.  Artest wasn't playing in last night's game and he may have made a difference, but the Sixers were a different defensive team, and I doubt Ron-Ron could have done anything about that.

When the Sixers went into their zone at the end of the game, they broke it open- using Igoudala, Young and Williams to press the ball handlers.  Udruh needs some help and the Kings need more discipline on offense, gone are the days of half-court execution that made the Kings so dangerous.  The don't know how to handle pressure anymore with their players.

I would say that we have to wait to see what the Kings have in their injured players before they decide what to do.  It seems pretty clear that they are vertically challenged, which is a bad thing in the WC.  Miller is a serviceable stiff but Moore is a very marginal player, not a starter. I don't know anything about the salary cap or if the Kings have flexibility there. 

It appears their best players are Artest and Salmons in that order.  I never liked Bibby, and if the team can get something for him they should.  Off hand- I'd say right now they are further away from a championship than Phila.

They need more front-line players and should probably just try to get as many of them as they can to see if any of them can play. Even if Martin pans out, he plays the same position as Salmons. They need rebounding and shot-blocking and some more speed players.  Kurt Thomas would be a big improvement over Kenny!

Offline Reality

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Re: Let's help Geoff Petrie "Fix" the Kings.
« Reply #5 on: December 29, 2007, 05:18:55 PM »
What is Bibbys contract status for would be takers?

Offline westkoast

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Re: Let's help Geoff Petrie "Fix" the Kings.
« Reply #6 on: December 29, 2007, 05:25:11 PM »
What is Bibbys contract status for would be takers?

He's signed up until 2009.  The Kings gave him a good sized contract back in 2002.

I would imagine that there is a couple of teams out there who would take Mike Bibby.  Bibby + SAR for a solid player + a #13 from Mcdonalds.
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Offline JoMal

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Re: Let's help Geoff Petrie "Fix" the Kings.
« Reply #7 on: December 31, 2007, 12:31:59 PM »
What is Bibbys contract status for would be takers?

He's signed up until 2009.  The Kings gave him a good sized contract back in 2002.

I would imagine that there is a couple of teams out there who would take Mike Bibby.  Bibby + SAR for a solid player + a #13 from Mcdonalds.

Bibby is also the highest paid King at this time, at $13.5 million this year and $14.5 million next year. Artest can opt out of the remaining year on his contract this summer, so that is an issue for the Kings and the main reason he could get traded in February. The biggest hindrance for the Kings by far are the contracts still being paid out for Kenny Thomas (due over $22 million through 2010), and SAR (due almost $19 million over the same period). Neither figures to be front line solutions to the team's need to get bigger and more athletic at the power forward spot. The long-term contracts for Brad Miller and John Salmons are easier to live with.

The Kings have Thomas and SAR for at least until February of the 2009/10 season, at which time their expiring contracts could bring something in return. Until then, who would want either one of them? Theus plays Thomas sparingly and his contribution is consistent with that. SAR is on the IL for the season with his second knee surgery of 2007. Guess THAT will certainly make him easier to trade.

What Petrie needs to do is trade Bibby and probably Artest (though his value to the Kings has increased with his more stellar and all-round play this season) for either expiring contracts, young talent, or draft picks, or some combination of these. Martin is safe, but anyone else on the roster could be included to round out trades.

The reality of the situation is that two players who have little to offer are blocking the development of the Kings until they can be let go in some way. A dry spell seems to have landed on top of Sacramento until at least the second half of the 2009/10 season.

Oh, and not to scare the heck out of Kings' opponents, for the next two weeks, we will be playing NBA games without our top three players - all out hurt. Martin's strained groin is healing slowing and he should be available around the 15th of January, when Bibby should also return from surgery to repair a torn ligament in his thumb, and also when Artest is expected back as well. It was announced in this morning's paper that Ron-ron is having surgery on his elbow to remove a bone fragment that has been locking up his arm at times. Two weeks out, minimum.

So the King's saga goes.
"We must not confuse dissent with disloyalty.....We will not be driven by fear into an age of unreason.....We are not descended from fearful men, not from men who feared to write, to speak, to associate and to defend causes that were for the moment unpopular....We cannot defend freedom abroad by deserting it at home."

Offline westkoast

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Re: Let's help Geoff Petrie "Fix" the Kings.
« Reply #8 on: December 31, 2007, 12:44:51 PM »
What is Bibbys contract status for would be takers?

He's signed up until 2009.  The Kings gave him a good sized contract back in 2002.

I would imagine that there is a couple of teams out there who would take Mike Bibby.  Bibby + SAR for a solid player + a #13 from Mcdonalds.

Bibby is also the highest paid King at this time, at $13.5 million this year and $14.5 million next year. Artest can opt out of the remaining year on his contract this summer, so that is an issue for the Kings and the main reason he could get traded in February. The biggest hindrance for the Kings by far are the contracts still being paid out for Kenny Thomas (due over $22 million through 2010), and SAR (due almost $19 million over the same period). Neither figures to be front line solutions to the team's need to get bigger and more athletic at the power forward spot. The long-term contracts for Brad Miller and John Salmons are easier to live with.



I think it's going to be real tough to dump Ron Artest in a month if he is going to have surgery on his elbow next week.  You think someone is going to want to give the Kings a fair trade with Artest out?  I don't see that happening.  Maybe in the off-season but not before the trade dead line.  If it's two weeks minimum he'll be gone that leaves like a week or two to mash out a deal with another team. 
« Last Edit: December 31, 2007, 12:46:44 PM by westkoast »
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Offline JoMal

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Re: Let's help Geoff Petrie "Fix" the Kings.
« Reply #9 on: January 02, 2008, 12:27:55 PM »

I think it's going to be real tough to dump Ron Artest in a month if he is going to have surgery on his elbow next week.  You think someone is going to want to give the Kings a fair trade with Artest out?  I don't see that happening.  Maybe in the off-season but not before the trade dead line.  If it's two weeks minimum he'll be gone that leaves like a week or two to mash out a deal with another team. 

It is more likely that Petrie has already been on the phone with potential suiters. I agree they all might want to wait to see how Artest does after the surgery, but it is somewhat minor surgery, the removal of a bone chip. Knowing Petrie, he probably has already negotiated a deal and is just waiting for the optimum time to spring it.
"We must not confuse dissent with disloyalty.....We will not be driven by fear into an age of unreason.....We are not descended from fearful men, not from men who feared to write, to speak, to associate and to defend causes that were for the moment unpopular....We cannot defend freedom abroad by deserting it at home."

Offline ziggy

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Re: Let's help Geoff Petrie "Fix" the Kings.
« Reply #10 on: January 02, 2008, 01:59:25 PM »
Actually Petrie has done a very good job of managing his payroll.  Would you expect any less from a Princeton grad?  At the end of 09-10 they will have only $12 million committed and the add in an extension for Martin at about $10 million, Garcia at about $6 million, Artest at about $8 million, and 2-3 draft picks at about $4-5 million, and they are at about $36 million overall.  That should give them about $14 million to spend on FA. That would be 1 top flight FA, and another good solid FA.  Last thing the Kings should do right now is trade Thomas or Rahim and get salaries that extend out past 09-10.  If your payroll is structured to have a lot of cap space in one season do everything you can to protect that one season and give it your best shot.  Rahim was always a loser, but he is now a supreme stiff.  They took a shot with him on a decent contract, and it didn't work.  Don't compound a decision that didn't pan out, by taking on another longer term deal just to get rid of him.  Kenny Thomas was what they had to take on to get rid of Chris Webber, so again don't blow that smart fiscal decision by extending out even farther with another longer term bad contract.
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Offline westkoast

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Re: Let's help Geoff Petrie "Fix" the Kings.
« Reply #11 on: January 02, 2008, 02:04:05 PM »
Actually Petrie has done a very good job of managing his payroll.  Would you expect any less from a Princeton grad?  At the end of 09-10 they will have only $12 million committed and the add in an extension for Martin at about $10 million, Garcia at about $6 million, Artest at about $8 million, and 2-3 draft picks at about $4-5 million, and they are at about $36 million overall.  That should give them about $14 million to spend on FA. That would be 1 top flight FA, and another good solid FA.  Last thing the Kings should do right now is trade Thomas or Rahim and get salaries that extend out past 09-10.  If your payroll is structured to have a lot of cap space in one season do everything you can to protect that one season and give it your best shot.  Rahim was always a loser, but he is now a supreme stiff.  They took a shot with him on a decent contract, and it didn't work.  Don't compound a decision that didn't pan out, by taking on another longer term deal just to get rid of him.  Kenny Thomas was what they had to take on to get rid of Chris Webber, so again don't blow that smart fiscal decision by extending out even farther with another longer term bad contract.

I agree Rahim needs to go but it's got to be impossible to move him.  Petrie has the skills but it's hard to sell turds to put it bluntly.

Zigs..as usual I appreciate you coming in with the contract information.
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Offline JoMal

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Re: Let's help Geoff Petrie "Fix" the Kings.
« Reply #12 on: January 02, 2008, 04:03:44 PM »
ziggy -

That is a very good take on the King's situation. But as a fan, it does take some committment to the team, knowing that we are not likely to be very competitive for the next two years until those contracts go away. I still cannot believe anyone actually gave Kenny Thomas that long term contract. But then, I can't believe Petrie actually felt he had swung a major coop by 'stealing' Abdur-Rahim away from the Nets because Sharif failed the medical exam for the Nets over his cronic knee problem, which, "surprise", has felled him for the season.

But I do feel that what Petrie expects to receive in return for Bibby and possibly Artest, will be expiring contracts, young talent, draft picks, or a combo of the three. But then, what GM doesn't want to accomplish that with a big trade. This is clearly a rebuilding team and I do not expect much till the 2009/10 season, at the earliest.
"We must not confuse dissent with disloyalty.....We will not be driven by fear into an age of unreason.....We are not descended from fearful men, not from men who feared to write, to speak, to associate and to defend causes that were for the moment unpopular....We cannot defend freedom abroad by deserting it at home."

Offline Skandery

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Re: Let's help Geoff Petrie "Fix" the Kings.
« Reply #13 on: January 02, 2008, 04:21:04 PM »
If SAR fooled Petrie, then he most certainly fooled me, too.  I always considered him a very good player-yes, lackadaisacal on defense; but you know so is Carlos Boozer.  Throughout those Vancouver and Atlanta days, I thought he bore too much of the blame for being on despicable teams and never making the playoffs.  Being traded to Portland, I couldn't believe they sat him for the likes of Darius Miles.  Injuries took their toll on him the next year, but as I remember it, he did alright when he was in the lineup and getting significant minutes.  I thought the Nets talked themselves out of a good player when he failed there physical and lauded Petrie for snagging him away.  I admit, the Kings haven't gotten near the return on investment I would have thought and its made me re-think the passes I've given him in the past.



Oh and JoMal, the guy who gave Thomas that contract was the recently fired Billy King.  Then again, can you think of a semi-decent rotation player Billy didn't outbid himself for.  Thomas, Green, Dalembert, the list just goes on. 
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Offline ziggy

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Re: Let's help Geoff Petrie "Fix" the Kings.
« Reply #14 on: January 02, 2008, 05:38:27 PM »
If SAR fooled Petrie, then he most certainly fooled me, too.  I always considered him a very good player-yes, lackadaisacal on defense; but you know so is Carlos Boozer.  Throughout those Vancouver and Atlanta days, I thought he bore too much of the blame for being on despicable teams and never making the playoffs.  Being traded to Portland, I couldn't believe they sat him for the likes of Darius Miles.  Injuries took their toll on him the next year, but as I remember it, he did alright when he was in the lineup and getting significant minutes.  I thought the Nets talked themselves out of a good player when he failed there physical and lauded Petrie for snagging him away.  I admit, the Kings haven't gotten near the return on investment I would have thought and its made me re-think the passes I've given him in the past.



Oh and JoMal, the guy who gave Thomas that contract was the recently fired Billy King.  Then again, can you think of a semi-decent rotation player Billy didn't outbid himself for.  Thomas, Green, Dalembert, the list just goes on. 

Actually they benched Miles so they could play SAR.  He played SF alongside Zack Randolph, and it is no coincidence that they were horrible that year.  I never watched SAR that much in Vancouver or Atlanta, just watched his numbers, and occasionally I would watch them play.  Once he got to Portland, I watched him up close, and I became convinced that he bears a great deal of the blame for his teams constantly losing.  The more he played the fewer games his teams won, and the less he played the more games his team won.  That isn't an opinion it is a fact based upon the numbers.  He was a lazy defender, and a lazy player all the way around.  He did more to slow the pace than any player on the floor.  He set lazy picks.  He was always the last player down on offense, and the last player down on defense.  In a slow down deliberate game he could rack up good numbers, but it didn't help his teams win.  He has the second worst lifetime winning % of any player in the league, and made the playoffs just once.  Until Sacto he was always one of the stars of his team.  The only player with a worse lifetime winning % is Jamal Crawford, and while he is not nearly the focus that Rahim has been, I do not believe it is a coincidence that his teams lose at an alarming rate (nearly 75% of the time).

Rahim is the greatest example of how the typical stats of PPG, RPG, APG can be very deceiving.  His stats made him look far better than he really was.  I believe Petrie probably got a little starry eyed with the stats, like me and a lot of other people in Portland did.  At the same time, Petrie started out paying him $5 million per and I believe the plan was to play him about 25 minutes per night.  With that salary and those minutes he is now the 4th option, and that is what he is.  In that kind of role playing against other second units he can probably be reasonably effective.  Sacto made the playoffs with him in that role, so from that perspective Petrie made the right call.
A third-rate mind is only happy when it is thinking with the majority. A second-rate mind is only happy when it is thinking with the minority. A first-rate mind is only happy when it is thinking.

A quotation is a handy thing to have about, saving one the trouble of thinking for oneself.

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