Kirilenko happy

[Skandery]

You gotta just love a guy like Jerry Sloan for his brutal honesty.  The phrase in his quote I bolded just multiplies the respect I have for the man, which was already quite considerable.

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http://sports.yahoo.com/nba/news;_ylt=AlaXaq1NkUJG0ZUQgc.sDbyLvLYF?slug=ap-nbanotes&prov=ap&type=lgns

After rough season, Utah's Kirilenko bounces back following success with national team
 
By BRIAN MAHONEY, AP Basketball Writer
December 1, 2007

National team duty can sometimes feel like a burden for NBA players, cutting into a summer that already seems too short.

For Andrei Kirilenko, it might have rescued his career.
 
The Utah forward was unhappy and at times unproductive in 2006-07, the worst season of his career. But he never thought about getting away from basketball for a while, not with the European championships taking place in September in Spain.

Kirilenko ended up winning MVP honors after carrying Russia to a stunning championship and an Olympic berth, and says now that the experience "kind of restored my mind a little bit."

"It was a tough year last year, a lot of disappointment for me," Kirilenko said. "In your mind you start to talk to yourself a little bit."

There were none of those negative thoughts following the Russians' upset of host Spain, the reigning world champion, in the title game. Kirilenko scored 17 points in the victory and made huge news in his home country.

"It's really important for the players, especially who have already been successful individually," Kirilenko said of the Russians' first European title since the Soviet Union won in 1985. "You really think about if I'm good enough, I need to win something with the team, so it's kind of in your head. It's really helped me make my career achievement."

Kirilenko averaged 8.3 points last season, lowest of his career and a seven-point drop from the previous year. He struggled with everything from Jerry Sloan's criticisms to his offensive schemes, but they discussed their differences on the eve of training camp, and the coach says Kirilenko has been "terrific" this season.

"He has a lot of different things he does and we haven't done a very good job probably coaching him the last couple of years," Sloan said. "I think with that he's done a better job this year, and we've tried to do a better job coaching him. He's put in a lot of work."

That's evident on the court, where his stats were all up from last season as he headed into the weekend. And it's obvious in his mind-set. After telling a Russian newspaper of his unhappiness and expressing a desire to leave Utah over the summer, Kirilenko says he no longer lets basketball be his No. 1 priority, and seems more at peace as he refuses to discuss what went on last season.

"Right now I'm changed completely. I feel way different," he said. "I don't want to get back to it, there's a lot of controversy, there's a lot of things which is media created.

"Right now we're playing pretty good. I'm trying to do my best ... so let's keep doing it."

That would be the best thing for Utah's Western Conference title hopes. But Sloan knows better than to guarantee it will happen.

"I don't know what tomorrow brings with anybody," he said. "I don't mean that in a negative way, that's just the way life is. You don't know that about this business then you're going to be shocked when something happens. And I haven't been shocked too many times."

[westkoast]

It's amazing what winning does for upset players.  Sometimes you have to sit back and think about the kind of team you are on.  I think that  had a lot to do with it.  The Utah Jazz have a young core with a lot of talent.  Much better then getting shipped off to somewhere that is older or has a lot less talent.

Props to Jerry Sloan for admitting that he messed up a bit as well.  Although I don't know if they really did a bad thing by not making him one of the first 2-3 options on offense.  Honestly there are still 3 guys who should be shooting before AK.  I believe that was one of the things he was upset about right?

[Skandery]

Honestly there are still 3 guys who should be shooting before AK.  I believe that was one of the things he was upset about right?

I really think this is a huge misnomer--the fact that AK was upset about not getting a lot of shots.  The first thing a player does when he is pissed off about not getting a chance to shoot the ball is shoot the ball.  Usually low percentage shot since they are frustrated.  Last year, AK decreased his attempts by 4.5 shots per game while raising his FG%.  So I highly doubt the assertion AK was pissed about not getting enough shots. 

I believe AK's true dissatisfaction stemmed from his under-utilization in the offense period.  Not just shooting, but having the ball work through him some of the time to utilize his offensive creativity.  He's not stupid and realizes he is surround by talented players, its not like he's gonna turn into JR Rider overnight; he just had no chance of using his players since he was being virtually ignored on that side of the ball last year.  Part of that was Jerry Sloan's fault (as he admitted) and part of that was Deron Williams fault (as he admitted). 

He is now getting that opportunity on the offensive side of the ball and his Assists per game have doubled!  Low and behold, his defensive numbers have returned because psychologically he feels more into the game.     

[Ted]

I agree with koast. Kirilenko was not part of the offense last year, and the difference this year is huge. First of all, AK is the type of player who can pick up 10-15 pts on pure hustle, put-backs, and broken plays. And his jumper is starting to fall with more regularity as well. But if you watch him now, you will see a player who will again and again pass up an open shot to make a sweet pass to a teammate. And it doesn't hurt that he's one of the top 5 defenders in the league. Not too many guys who are lockdown defenders and weakside help nightmares all in one.

If things continue the way they are, AK will once again, very soon become my favorite player.

[JoMal]

Well, he certainly did not look too happy after last night's game.

[Ted]

I still have no idea why he wasn't put on Ron Ron in the fourth quarter. Boozer was getting worked over with 5 fouls. Gotta give credit to Salmons and Artest; they were the aggressors. They earned the 47 trips to the free throw line.

[westkoast]

He is a better defender then offensive player so he should be looking to get points and assists by doing something nice on that end of the floor.  There is no reason to have the ball go through AK when you have Boozer in the post and Deron on the outside.  He should be an after thought.  I don't see the problem with that.  If the ball comes to him then it comes to him but to run it through him in any sense of the phrase? No way.  Now Deron icing him out for not working hard in the gym or practice is a whole nother story because if AK should be getting touches it should be on fast breaks and hard cuts.  I just don't agree with letting him create himself.  I don't think his offensive game is that creative at all actually.

[Ted]

I think you're underrating Andrei as a passer. He is the best passer on the Jazz behind Deron; he's long and he's the best finisher on breaks and backdoor cuts. When he plays that kind of game, he's the perfect fit for the Jazz offense. Last year his problem was that he wanted to prove he had a jump shot and inhibited the movement of the ball, so Deron just stopped passing to him. That's my theory from what I saw at least.

[Skandery]

Westkoast:  He should be an after thought.

Sorry Westkoast, I wholeheartedly disagree with you.

Having the ball work through someone doesn't mean they dominate the offensive position.  It means they are an intricate part of the offensive system designed to produce high percentage field goal attempts.  

Let me speak in Laker terms.  While the Lakers have Kobe Bryant and Lamar Odom that the offense centers around, many times (moreso last year) the offense runs through Luke Walton who facilitated the offensive possession.  He would do this by any number of means which are all initiated by actually getting to touch the ball.  No one will argue Walton was the most important part of the puzzle for the Lakers on offense, but they won't argue that he was an after-thought, either.  In fact some will argue the Lakers run smoother when Walton is involved.  

Going back to Kirilenko.  Last year he was an after-thought on offense, virtually ignored by his coach and his teammates and while the team did fine for a while, it exploded in spectacularly horrible fashion against a great team in WCF.  And caused bad emotions to fester inside their best defender and highest-paid player to the point he threatened not to come back.  This year, he is not an after-thought on offense and lo and behold Utah is still doing just as good this year.  And Kirilenko feels good about his team and himself.  

But enough touchy-feely, lets crunch some cold, hard, unfeeling numbers . . .

Utah Points per 100 possession when Kirilenko is on the court -- 119.1
Utah Points per 100 possession when Kirilenko is off the court -- 99.4

a 19 point difference and a 9 point advantage over Deron Williams numbers.  

The +/- numbers for Utah when Kirilenko is

-on court -- +14.2
-off court -- -4.7

for a net difference of +18.9, by far and away higher than any other Jazz who plays at least 30% of the minutes.  For comparison Boozer is at +1.1 and Deron Williams is at +2.6.  And before you think Minutes played skews the comparison, the percentage of total minutes played for all three players are as follows:

Williams -- 77%
Kirilenko -- 71%
Boozer -- 69%  

His Roland Rating is tied for the highest in the Jazz along with Carlos Boozer at +9.8.  A more versatile offensive option that you or Ted may argue over AK in favor of is Memo Okur, his Roland Rating is -5.1.  Just to show you that being a purer shooter or "running with the 1st team" doesn't help you in this measure.

The Utah Jazz Team Effective FG% and Assisted Field Goals are both substantially higher with Andrei Kirilenko on the court.  

I am not arguing that Andrei Kirilenko is an Offensive Demi-God.  I (and the numbers) am simply saying that when he is thoroughly involved in the offense, things are better for the Utah Jazz.          

[Skandery]

Last year his problem was that he wanted to prove he had a jump shot and inhibited the movement of the ball, so Deron just stopped passing to him. That's my theory from what I saw at least.

Now a theory like that I can stand behind.  If Kirilenko just receives the ball and pops a perimeter shot everytime, I'd be the first one in line calling for his head.  As for last year, I'm sure I didn't see as many Jazz games as Ted, but it didn't seem like AK was doing enough of that to warrant being ignored to the magnitude he was. 

Thats neither here nor there, though, since IMO All parties share a portion of the blame.   

[westkoast]

I think you're underrating Andrei as a passer. He is the best passer on the Jazz behind Deron; he's long and he's the best finisher on breaks and backdoor cuts. When he plays that kind of game, he's the perfect fit for the Jazz offense. Last year his problem was that he wanted to prove he had a jump shot and inhibited the movement of the ball, so Deron just stopped passing to him. That's my theory from what I saw at least.

That's what I was speaking on.  Last year he thought he was Kobe Bryant or Dwayne Wade pulling up for jumpers.  That is not what I call creative offense.

As for his passing, I never rated it to begin with but the ball should be ran through Boozer with Deron initiating the offense.  If AK gets the ball on a cut, cool but no way would I want to see him on the post with the ball going through him when you have Carlos Boozer.  As far as I know he doesn't have a real back to the basket game and his jumper is nothing to write home about.  Why would the offense be ran through him if he is not a true threat?  They didn't do it last year and they had a GREAT year.  They just happened to run into the championship team on the way to the finals.

Skandery...I have to wait to address your entire post cuz you came with the heat and im at work but I can comment on the Luke Walton thing real fast.  Yes he was very important to the Lakers offense last year before all the injuries.  He was the oil in the engine to make sure it ran smooth but he was not the first or second option in the way I am speaking about.   He was not the driving force behind the offensive engine.  He just made sure it ran more efficient and smooth.   When I think of options I think of something like The Spurs where it goes to Duncan..if he doesn't have a good look it goes to Parker...if he doesn't have a good look it goes to Manu...then if something else pops up it does.  That doesn't mean Bruce Bowen is useless much like it doesn't mean AK is useless if he's not one of the main 3 options. 

Wouldn't you agree you rather see a drive and kick to Okur then AK?

[westkoast]

Okay I have some time to really get into the post.  First of all I appreciate you "dumbing it down" for me by using Lakers examples.  You know us slow, self centered  plastic  Southern California residents can only grasp things like totally in Los Angeles as mayor of LA, Paris Hilton, would say.

 

Going back to Kirilenko.  Last year he was an after-thought on offense, virtually ignored by his coach and his teammates and while the team did fine for a while, it exploded in spectacularly horrible fashion against a great team in WCF.  And caused bad emotions to fester inside their best defender and highest-paid player to the point he threatened not to come back.  This year, he is not an after-thought on offense and lo and behold Utah is still doing just as good this year.  And Kirilenko feels good about his team and himself. 

He was an after thought maybe because his offense is just not that good?  I also disagree they exploded against the Spurs.  IMO they were picked apart by a much better veteran team that was dominating.  That happens when you are a young team.   This year in the playoffs will be a different story.

You think AK - 47s offense was going to get them past SA's defense?  Or even counter act things SA was doing well like high low bounce passes for dunks and base line cuts?  If the Jazz "exploded" it's because of their defense.  SA was getting layups, wide open shots, and put backs.  I wouldn't say any Jazz offense would have helped.  Deron was on fire and should have taken every shot you think AK should have had.

Utah is doing very well because he is playing defense better and not injured.  Not because of his offense.  You could argue he is trying harder on the defense end because he is getting touches but he still should be a defensive player first and a hay-you-are-open slot on this offense second.  No way the offense should be ran through him at all.   Luke Walton was not the 3rd option on this Laker squad nor do they run the ball through him.  Last year it was Kobe, Kwame, Odom.  This year it is Kobe, Bynum, Odom.  So your example is flawed in multiple ways.  Also, Luke is valuable because he knows the triangle well.  AK does not have an advantage over other players on his team in the Jerry Sloan offense.  If anyone knows that offense the best I would say it's Deron Williams given his guidance from Mr Stockton.

But enough touchy-feely, lets crunch some cold, hard, unfeeling numbers . . .

Utah Points per 100 possession when Kirilenko is on the court -- 119.1
Utah Points per 100 possession when Kirilenko is off the court -- 99.4

a 19 point difference and a 9 point advantage over Deron Williams numbers. 

The +/- numbers for Utah when Kirilenko is

-on court -- +14.2
-off court -- -4.7

for a net difference of +18.9, by far and away higher than any other Jazz who plays at least 30% of the minutes.  For comparison Boozer is at +1.1 and Deron Williams is at +2.6.  And before you think Minutes played skews the comparison, the percentage of total minutes played for all three players are as follows:

Williams -- 77%
Kirilenko -- 71%
Boozer -- 69% 

His Roland Rating is tied for the highest in the Jazz along with Carlos Boozer at +9.8.  A more versatile offensive option that you or Ted may argue over AK in favor of is Memo Okur, his Roland Rating is -5.1.  Just to show you that being a purer shooter or "running with the 1st team" doesn't help you in this measure.

Skander let's cut the fluff here and these "cold" numbers.  You can bend stats to warm players up.   While these numbers are great to look at it still doesn't tell me in a half court set they should run the ball through AK. 

What the stats say, which I think EVERYONE agrees with, is they are a better unit when he is on the floor.  He makes things happen on the defensive end that allow for much easier buckets.  That doesn't mean they should run the offense through him.  Maybe Deron shouldn't look him off when he is open like he admitted to do but no way should he be a focal point, he doesn't have that kind of game.   He has no back to the basket game and I think you would agree his jumper needs to improve before he plays the role Manu does for SA was a legit part of the offense with Parker and Duncan.  AK should be Bruce Bowen in every sense of his role.  They both can score but not a focal point of the offense.

The reason certain players get the ball ran through them is because they are legit threats.   Boozer is a legit person to run the ball through because he can dominate the paint with his back to the basket game.  Deron is a legit person to run the ball through because he can score from every spot on the court.  AK does not have a solid jumper (yet) nor does he have a back to the basket game.  He doesn't take people off the dribble.  So again WHY run the ball through him in any half court set?

The Utah Jazz Team Effective FG% and Assisted Field Goals are both substantially higher with Andrei Kirilenko on the court. 

I am not arguing that Andrei Kirilenko is an Offensive Demi-God.  I (and the numbers) am simply saying that when he is thoroughly involved in the offense, things are better for the Utah Jazz.

You know what effective FG% tand assisted field goals tell me?  They play better defense and get easier looks when he is on the floor.  That doesn't tell me he on the offensive end is the direct cause of that.  If Deron was having a poor year and Boozer was as well then I might give him more credit but that is not the case.

He doesn't have to be an offensive demi god but to be a legit 2 and 3rd option you need to be on par with guys like Richard Jefferson, Vince Carter, Caron Butler, Manu Gnob, Chauncey Billups, Yao Ming, etc type player.  On the offensive end AK does not match up to them because he doesn't have the same amount of skills they do.  Each of the players I named have a decent jumper, range, and can get to the rim night in and night out.  AK just is not the same type of offensive player they are to have an offense ever ran through him.     It's the defensive end where most of his energy should be focused on.   

[Ted]

He makes things happen on the defensive end that allow for much easier buckets.

You know what effective FG% tand assisted field goals tell me?  They play better defense and get easier looks when he is on the floor.  That doesn't tell me he on the offensive end is the direct cause of that.   

I've never agreed with this kind of assertion. For the good defense = easy scores assertion to fully account for that frickin huge 18.9 pt spread Skander showed you, AK would have to be a god. The Jazz fast break has improved no doubt, but it's not that much better than last year. The one thing that is remarkable about how they're scoring this year is that it's mostly coming from the half-court offense. Against the Lakers, the Jazz had 70 points in the paint--that does not include fast break points. All without Boozer.

I guess I get my point of view from watching Jazz games this year, and Skandery gets his from examining A LOT of quantitative measures, and . . . you?

AK has doubled his assists average this year, and has led the team in assists several times. And I can tell you from watching and hearing what the coaches and players say on local radio, when they're not running the offense through Deron (who of course should be the primary facilitator), it's usually going through Andrei. Especially when he's on the move, and he's always on the move. Boozer is merely the designed end of the offensive position, with Deron as second option. This year, AK is almost always somewhere in between.

PS. Is there some kind of special school you have to attend or degree you have to obtain to be able to discount very specific and applicable offensive statistics as effortlessly as you did?

The Jazz are a half-court offense. This is a Jerry Sloan team. He may have "loosened the reins" a bit, but they still score the great majority of their points in the half-court offense. So I don't see how those statistics say AK has not been a vital part of their half-court offense.

[westkoast]

He makes things happen on the defensive end that allow for much easier buckets.

You know what effective FG% tand assisted field goals tell me?  They play better defense and get easier looks when he is on the floor.  That doesn't tell me he on the offensive end is the direct cause of that.   

PS. Is there some kind of special school you have to attend or degree you have to obtain to be able to discount very specific and applicable offensive statistics as effortlessly as you did?

Seems like simple basketball logic to me.  You have two players who are very good.  Both who have shown that if you run the offense through them for this squad they can get far in the playoffs.  I say you run the ball through them.  Doesn't seem like you need formulas or seeing every game to come up with that conclusion.

If Good defense = easy scores assertion doesn't fully account for what you bring up then what makes you think that AK himself is directly responsible for those 18.9 point spread?  Is is possible....GASP that when hes on the floor that unit is the best unit they have?!?!  Was that taken into account??  If I am stretching for that one then surely you both are stretching for AK.

Second Ted if you want to jump in here....  Can you refute points made about AK's back to the basket game and jumper?  Those are keys to having plays ran through you on the offensive end in the NBA.  Tell me now of all the players in the league who have entire offensive sets ran through em don't have that AK does.  I can name plenty of things (and did) that backs up why I feel he shouldn't have an offense ran through him.  Was saying he should be Bruce Bowen on the Jazz not a fair comparison?  It's not like they are both defensive stoppers, key to their team being consistant, the player who practices what their coach preaches the most, and good for buckets here and there but no where is the ball ran through them in the offense. 

Offensive statistics that don't say all that much.  Like I said there was a lot of fluff there.  Saying they are more effecient when he is on the floor this year doesn't automatically mean he is a good offensive player.  He is not a good offensive player.  He is decent but much much better on the defensive end.

You want to bring up the Lakers Jazz game?  You know the game where AK got assists by getting a block or rebound with a long outlet pass to cutting players?  Or how about grabbing long rebounds and making the good outlet to give the Jazz the advantage.  I am glad you brought that game up because that sums up what I am saying.  They are a better defensive unit when he is on the floor and it gives them alot of opportunity's.  The Jazz did not "run the ball through" AK when they played the Lakers and they won by 20+.  So again, you guys think AK is the direct cause of this and warrants a half court set to go through him when Deron and Boozer?

You are right the Jazz are a half court team and AK doesn't have the skill set (at this time) to be considered a type of player you want to run plays through when you have Deron and Boozer.  He can't come off screens like Rip Hamilton or Chauncey  cuz his jumper is weak.  He doesn't slash like Richard Jefferson.  He doesn't have the range of Michael Redd.  Nor can he take people off the dribble like Caron Butler.  All of which are people whom offense runs through as 2nd and 3rd options.

[Ted]

Before I address the minutia you are asking me to address, I think I ought to go back to the underlying misconception underpinning everything you are saying. That is . . .

Where are you getting this "run the offense through AK" stuff? When did either of us say that? You do realized you're the only one saying that. I think you're unintentionally taking Skander's initial remarks on this subject and totally warping them. Here they are:

"I believe AK's true dissatisfaction stemmed from his under-utilization in the offense period.  Not just shooting, but having the ball work through him some of the time to utilize his offensive creativity.  He's not stupid and realizes he is surround by talented players, its not like he's gonna turn into JR Rider overnight; he just had no chance of using his players since he was being virtually ignored on that side of the ball last year."

I agree completely with this. Notice, he did not say, "run the offense through AK." He even says "some of the time." Now here's part of your response.

"There is no reason to have the ball go through AK when you have Boozer in the post and Deron on the outside.  He should be an after thought.  I don't see the problem with that.  If the ball comes to him then it comes to him but to run it through him in any sense of the phrase? No way."

So, it sounds like you're advocating an offense where primarily two people touch the ball and other players get involved only when that initial point A to point B approach doesn't work? I'd love to play against that team. Do you coach?

And here's what Skander says about having "the ball work through someone" versus "running the offense through" someone. As it happens, I like what he says.

"Having the ball work through someone doesn't mean they dominate the offensive position.  It means they are an intricate part of the offensive system designed to produce high percentage field goal attempts."

And this is what is happening. This is why the Jazz lead the league in scoring this year. This is why the numbers look the way they do. This is why we disagree. Of course they're not "running the offense through" AK. In fact, if you've ever watched the Jazz play their best game, they aren't "running the offense through" anyone. Any player could score at any given time. The fact that the three best "finishers"--Booz, Deron, Memo (and lately Ronnie)-- usually end up doing most of the scoring only speaks to the efficiency of the offense. These three know where to be to get the open shot, and the other players know well enough to get it to them.

Okay . . .

Even though I don't think I now need to address your point about having a back-to-the-basket game, I will. According to what I understand from the comments quoted above, a player without a back to the basket game, or a jumper (incidentally, AK's jumper is falling this year), or the ability to create his own shot, should be an "after-thought" in the NBA offense, which, it would seem, every NBA team uses. Do I have to continue with this . . . ? Skander just telepathically told me yes I do. Okay.

Bruce Bowen, which AK should supposedly seek to become, is one of the most one-dimensional offensive players in the league. And he is NOT an after-thought. He is a very real and necessary threat, and without his long-range shooting, Spurs opponents would be able to double team Tim Duncan or Manu Ginobili with much more freedom. Of course, then Tony Parker would probably take his man on the dribble and then . . . dang . . . the Spurs are good! Especially with Bruce Bowens three-point bombs in the mix. 


P.S. Blocks/Steals = Easy shots is not a true mathematical equation.