Draft Analysis Part IIBasketball JihadWayOutWest loves his double D's and decided to stick with em' (Stop fondling 'em in front of the mirror, dude). Dirk and Davis are awesome. In my humble opinion, there is no fantasy commodity worth more than Dirk Nowitzki in any of the 4 previous years I've participated and I don't think it'll change this year. A 90% FT shooting, 40% 3 PT shooting big man who gets 25 and 9 is ridiculous. Baron Davis goes as his health goes--healthy and their's only one or two PGs better, unhealthy and he's a wrecking ball around your ankle.
The GoodJermaine O'Neal needs to get healthy finally but if he does, he's an awesome fantasy big man. Anthony Parker (103) and Raja Bell (114) were late picks that'll bolster Dirk's categories. Gooden (138) was a nice pick late.
The Bad J-Rich (42), TP (55), Ricky Davis (66), and Al Harrington (79) are all good fantasy players but all have efficiency, rotation (except Tony P.), and all aren't known for helping across all categories.
The UglySMOOOSH at pick (127) when Jason Williams (the guy he backs up) didn't even get drafted makes you go hmmmm. Now we all know Miguel wouldn't make a semi-homer pick, don't we?
Prediction Any team with Dirk on it has a chance to to something special. I think this team will do well in the percentage/scoring categories but might find accumulation categories (Blks, Stls, Asts, Rebs) a little hard to come by. The health Baron Davis and J.O. will decide the fate of this team.
Wolverine's GunnersChauncey Billups and Joe Johnson were the keepers and those two guys go a long ways to solving you're backcourt problem. You worry a little about Chauncey regressing as he gets older but I would think he should be fine for this year. He took Al Jefferson with the first pick to shore up the front court--and I think Jefferson could be monstrous in Minny.
The GoodBrad Miller (80) I like because even if he reverts to mediocre Brad of last year--he'll still have been worth the 80th pick. I like Grant Hill (104), it might have been a tad early but you have to love the prospects in Phoenix and you knew you had to reach a little to get him on the roster. Elton Brand (128) is very saavy and Turkoglu (137) is an amazing pick that late.
The BadI love, LOVE Brandon Roy as much as the next guy but (41) is too early for a sophomore with persistent heel issues. (PG,SG) eligibility is nice but you've kept two PG eligible players and Kevin Martin, Caron Butler, and Manu Ginobili were still there. Maxiell (113) is a nice sleeper but he sure is buried in Detroit, I'd have gone a safer route with guys like Krstic (115), Millsap (119), and Battier (120).
The UglyShaquille, lovably referred to as Fatquille but WOW, at (89). There are two kinds of people in this world, some who think Shaq still has great days ahead of him and a 75 game season in the offing and those that think he won't be much more than Eddy Curry for about 45 games. I'm closer to the latter camp but I've been wrong before.
Prediction The Gunners are a well-balanced and all it would take is a banner year from his mid-round picks like Granger, David West, and Brad Miller to make this team a very strong team. You're probably looking at a playoff team.
Archangel UnitedI kept Steve Nash and Gilbert Arenas. Two valuable players that unfortunately have PG only status. So what I made up for in production, I sacrificed heavily in flexibility. So I set out to draft a flexible, albeit not world-beater team.
The GoodLaMarcus Aldridge (57) had me jumping up and down like a school girl at a "My Little Pony" Ice Capades. He was THEE, absolute LAST Center I thought may crack into the 2nd Tier of Centers. BTW, sorry Derek. Murphy (88) I look at, like Wolverine's pick of Brad Miller, he ain't going to be much less valuable than where he was taken unless J.O. is healthy and Diogu improves by leaps. Charlie Villanueva (129) will be good value and BTW, sorry Derek about that one, too.
The BadRedd (33) and Jamison (40) weren't the most valuable players available, and all they bring are the same categories by keepers bring anyway. I don't have Top talent across all dimensions and these picks ensured that. Gay (81) and West (105) were both picked before they should have and both are going to have to forge ample playing time for me to break even.
The UglyWith my 64th pick and guys like Ron Artest, Ricky Davis, Zach Randolph, Ben Wallace, Mike Bibby, Peja Stojakovic, and Richard Jefferson on the board. I draft an Italian girlie man named Andrea. Yes he's got position flexibility and C status and yes that was my stated draft goal but Andrea is going to have to bust out in a BIG way for me to reap any value whatsoever out of this pick.
Prediction This draft comprised a lot of gambles on a lot of unproven players in the mid-round: Aldridge, Bargnani, Gay, and Scola. All of those players will probably need to be fairly productive if this team is to make the playoffs, and I consider Bargnani the absolute make-or-break pick for me. If nothing else, I at least liked pissing Derek off.
Derek's Team Derek kept Yao Ming, a fantasy force, and Andre Iguodala (a multi-category stud). In keeping the new A.I., Derek let Jason Kidd and Al Jefferson go. Some might consider that decision a mistake, I happen to think it was the right move.
The GoodVince Carter (34) and Allen Iverson (39) were picked up at discounts. Korver (130) and Dunleavy (135) were just plain stolen!
The BadDerek robbed that cradle every chance he got and you have to wonder if some early gambles might have been better spent on known quantities. Marvin Williams (82), Al Thornton (87), and Al Horford (111) were all drafted at premiums and will need to produce to justify the early selections.
The UglyMarco Belinelli (106) was probably the most egregious of the rookie, gamble picks and with no less than about 5 guys in Golden State who qualify at SG, you have to wonder how much Marco will have to fight through to justify his selection above Raja Bell (114), Cuttino Mobley (125), and Jamal Crawford (126), ALL opening day Starters.
Prediction Derek has a knack for finding hidden talent and I wounldn't be surprised at all if many of his selections pan out making them ripe for selling high. As usual, he drafted a well-balance team at all positions and with relative health from Yao Ming, continued development from Tyson Chandler, and some gambles going his way, this team should be considered a championship contendor.
Jerry LewisJerry Lewis kept LeBron James and Josh Howard, very strong statistically, although both keepers are at the 2 deepest positions. I think if LeBron improves his FT percentage and gets may a half TO less, you may be looking at the best fantasy player on the planet--that isn't much improvement to hope for out of the 22 year old.
The Good I liked Camby (35) and Pierce (38) and very much considered picking up Camby in my 3rd round turn (decided to go with a guy l like and my favorite color). Pierce is absolutely a steal at 38 if he manages to stay healthier than he did for me last year--that sour taste probably kept me from him, the most valuable player on the board on my turn. Diaw (83) is a nice pickup. Walton (134) was taken at a discount.
The BadTheir is a very nice mix of young Centers behind Camby, Biedrins (62), Dalembert (86), and Milicic (110). All of them come with big questions, in the meantime two of them are probably still developing and the other one starts the season injured. Though if you're going to reach for a position, Center is where you want to do it. I probably would have mixed in a more known quantity with the youngsters, like Brad Miller or Zydrunas Ilgauskas.
The UglyThe starting PG for this team is Jason Terry (59)--a wonderful fantasy player but not so good for the assist category. He is backed up by Chucky Atkins (131) and Tony Allen (158), not exactly reassuring. You need to have good points to win the league and rectifying this situation is probably Jerry's top priority.
PredictionThe team is built very solid with players that can contribute in many different categories. Even with PG shortcomings, this team will probably make the playoffs. A timely 'sell high' on one of his bigs for a productive PG and this team has a chance to go far.
Genghis's PolarbearsGenghis kept Tim Duncan and Pau Gasol. Two legitimate Top 10 fantasy players that both happen to qualify at C (and PF) is huge! The massive amount of production at the league's scarcest position goes a long way into making it easy to fill out a devastating lineup and Genghis obliged.
The GoodTracy McGrady (36) fell due to injury concerns but the guy is 2 years removed from threatening to lead the league in scoring every year (in addition to contributing positively to every stat but TO and FG%). Kirilenko (60) at this spot is low risk, cumulo-nimbus sky high reward, you knew he'd fall and Genghis took advantage. Mo Williams (84) could be the most impressive pick when all is said and done for this team. Ronnie Brewer (109) is also very intriguing now that he's wrested control of the SG spot on a good team.
The BadThe team overpaid for guys they liked Kirk Hinrich (37), Randy Foye (85), Jarret Jack (108), and guys he might be able to trade for a profit Andrew Bogut (61)
The UglyBogut, a 12 and 8 player last year, now has to contend with the upstart Yi Jianlian, a healthy Charlie Villaneuva, and a healthy Bobby Simmons in the frontcourt. How much improvement in the numbers is really expected to warrant the selection before Ben Wallace, Al Harrington, Brad Miller, Zydrunas Ilgauskas and maybe even Shaquille O'Neal. Unless he turns a tidy profit in a trade involving Bogut with those of us who overvalue Bogut (and WE're out here), I don't see this pick returning value.
PredictionWith two ho-hum selections in the late rounds, Garbajosa (133) and Varejao (156), Joe has his rotator spots ready to fill in positions to maximize games and with a nucleus of Hinrich, T-Mac, AK-47, Duncan, Gasol, and Mo Williams the team is perfectly suited to his style. I consider this team perhaps the strongest championship contendor drafted.
