July 28 2008
Zig what is up with Ellsbury? Very prolonged slump. Down to .250 or so and OBS is dropping to durn near .300
Red Sox also in a bad slump.
I went to Seattle and watched him play. I think there are a couple of basic things.
#1 he has become much less patient at the plate, I read somewhere that his pitches per plate appearance has dropped almost 1/2 pitch per plate appearance. As a result he has been swinging at pitches he should be taking. Those are pitches he can't do much with, and rather than wait for a pitch he can do something with, he goes out. I saw that 3 times in Seattle, and on a couple of other games. Struggling with the breaking ball and balls down and in. This has resulted in his walk rate going way down and his strikeout rate going up some.
I also think that having Ortiz out has hurt as well. Like most young lefties he struggles against other lefties. With Ortiz out he has had to play everyday, and I think he has developed some bad habits against lefties.
I also believe that some of it is luck, just like Kyle Loshe. Baseball streaks clearly have a luck component. Look at your boy Peavy in 2006, it was just like Hee Haw. Then look at him last year, and he was a beast. There is no doubt luck (good and bad) played a huge role in both years. The best example this year compared to last year is Rafael Betancourt of the Indians. No way he was as good as it looked last year (best relief pitcher in baseball, Dennis Eckersley like), and no way he is as bad as he looks this year. Sometimes you hit a laser, right at someone and you get an out. Other times you hit some texas leaguer just over the head of the SS, or drops in between 3 fielders, and you get a hit. Get a little bad luck, in the middle of a tough patch, and you begin to press, and then it starts to snowball. I knew that he would have a stretch like this, and now we get to see how he handles it.
