Opinions on the draft

[ziggy]

Who won, who lost?

Some quick takes

Start with the obligatory Steven A Smith is a moron post.  I am sorry, but Jason Richardson for Brendon Wright is highway robbery by Micheal Jordan, not the other around.  OK Wright may turn out to be great, but JRich is already a top 15-20 player in the league.  MJ gave up a maybe for a star, Great move.

Boston will be better next year, not that it matters.  Maybe Ainge saved his job for a year or 2.

Seattle is completely rebuilding, which isn't a bad thing.  In 3-4 years they will be really good.

I am holding off on the Zach Randolph for Francis and Frye deal for right now.  There is a another trade in the works, that can't happen for a couple of days.  I believe it will include the Vanilla Gorilla because he is the hold up as he is a base year player.  It will also include Fernandez, but as far as the rest I have no idea.  I will wait until I hear before I comment.

My opinion of the worst lottery pick is the Kings.  For some reason I keep seeing Jon Koncak, Joe Kliene, Blair Rassmussen, Todd McCullough, Eric Montross, Bryant Reeves, Cherokee Parks, Todd Fuller, Micheal Dolec, Chris Mihm, and    Rafael Araujo when I look at Spencer Hawes.

I think Philly did OK with Thaddeus Young, and NO did great with Julian Wright.  No doubt they did better than Sacto.

Phoenix did well with Tucker that late, and San Antonio got a great pick at 28 with Splitter.

Lakers picking where they were had limited opportunities.  One thing you see in many drafts is that success in picking from 17-21 is no better than picking 26-30.  Often times team take a flier on a very young player at 19 (Crittendon) with the hope that maybe they turn out.  Sometimes it works sometimes it is a bust.  This then leads to a few older players (Splitter, Tucker) with limited ceilings sliding into the very low 20's, and they turn just like you would expect, and become very good picks.

[Lurker]

I am holding off on the Zach Randolph for Francis and Frye deal for right now.  There is a another trade in the works, that can't happen for a couple of days. 

I wish I could be present at the first Knicks practice to see Curry & Zach knock each other off the low post and fight for the ball...assuming , of course, that Marbury would actually pass it into the post.

Two low post offensive players who can't pronounce defense let alone play it.  Zeke switched out a overpaid duplicate PG for an overpaid duplicate post player.  What a legacy he is creating in NY.

I like Frye's game...IMO Portland got a solid big man to back up Oden & Aldridge.

[Lurker]

Here is ESPN Insider take on Celtics/Sonics & Knicks/Blazers deals:

Celts, Knicks taking big risks in Allen, Randolph deals
 By John Hollinger  ESPN Insider

 Updated: June 29, 2007

It's that classic moment in the shelf-life of an NBA executive: The desperation trade. That's the trade GMs make when they feel like they have one final shot at keeping their job, so to heck with the future. The thought process is to just take on whichever veteran stars the guy can and worry about the cap later -- if the trade doesn't work it will be somebody else's problem anyway, because he's guaranteed to be fired.

Last night, we got that times two. Both Boston's Danny Ainge and New York's Isiah Thomas decided to roll the dice on expensive veterans and, in doing so, helped Seattle and Portland along in their rapid rebuilding projects -- as if they needed the help. While in the short term these moves bring two star players to a dilapidated Eastern Conference, long-term it may only ensure the continued dominance of the West.

It continues a tried and true formula in the NBA -- find the biggest sucker at the table, and take all his chips. Getting Isiah on the phone has been a key part of the rebuilding process for the Suns, Bulls, Raptors and Magic, and it appears the Blazers are the latest to take the plunge.

Of course, the Blazers first plundered Ainge a year ago in the Brandon Roy deal, and now it appears the Sonics have done the same. Ainge's deal for Ray Allen represents a full-circle move by the Celtics. When he took over, Ainge decided to blow up Boston's nucleus because he had an old team that had peaked in the mid-40s in wins and wasn't going to be getting any better.

Five years later, he's dealt himself an old team that will peak in the mid-40s in wins and isn't going to get any better.

One of the keys to the deal is how much Allen has left in the tank. At first glance, it seems quite a bit. Though he's 32, his numbers have been virtually identical each of the past several seasons. Additionally, wings who can shoot tend to age much better than those who can't, and Allen is among the best shooters of all time. That's why players like Reggie Miller, Jeff Hornacek, Walter Davis and Steve Kerr were able to play at levels near their peak-effectiveness until their mid-30s.

However, the NBA is a grueling life, and those players are the exceptions. Many more players of similar skills began to decline in their early 30s, usually because the injuries simply caught up with them. Great shooters like Allan Houston, Mitch Richmond, Rolando Blackman, Glen Rice and Dale Ellis all hit the wall at 31 or 32 (though Ellis succeeded at a lower level for several more years). So did a shooting guard by the name of Danny Ainge, which makes you wonder why he signed off on this deal.

Plus, there's another factor here. Allen has long had a sore knee, and he also underwent surgery on both ankles this offseason. Maybe it's nothing and he comes back fresh as a daisy, but it's hardly a positive sign.

That's why Seattle made the right move cashing in its Ray Allen stock immediately and building the team around Durant, Green and (perhaps) Rashard Lewis. Additionally, Wally Szczerbiak and Chris Wilcox both come off the books in 2009, giving new Sonics GM Sam Presti either a $20 million war chest in expiring contracts to trade for another star, or a huge chunk of cap space with which to pursue free agents.

Meanwhile, Ainge's only option now is to double down on the bet he just made. The Pierce-Allen-Al Jefferson triumvirate should be an effective one, but unless that's surrounded by more quality it won't amount to much more than a first-round playoff defeat -- especially without quality defenders to surround them.

To make this work, Ainge must also use the combo of Gerald Green and Theo Ratliff's expiring contract to try to pry away a quality big man to pair with Jefferson, and he has to use his midlevel exception to bring in a decent point guard. (Alternatively, he should call his buddy Chris Wallace in Memphis and ask what it would take to get the suddenly disposable Kyle Lowry).

That's where we come up with the second key to the deal -- Boston's pockets. I sure hope Ainge got the owners to sign off on paying luxury tax the next three years before he pushed this trade through, because otherwise I'm not sure it makes sense.

The Celtics are close to the luxury tax line already and would be way over next year if they extend Al Jefferson (and, perhaps, Tony Allen) and get a player in return for Ratliff. Ainge's only hope, it seems, is to pursue Isiah's strategy of using his young players and expiring deals to take on contracts nobody else wants. We've all seen how that worked out.

In the meantime, he has three stars -- but no point guard, no center and no defense. It will be one of the more entertaining 44-win teams in recent years, and who knows, maybe in the East that will be enough to provide the illusion of success by getting them to the second round of the playoffs. But unless the C's are ready to go all-in and pay through the nose, it's hard to see what the point was, because in three years they'll be a lot worse off for it.

Speaking of Isiah, the other big deal on Thursday was the Knicks' trade of Channing Frye and Steve Francis to Portland for Zach Randolph, Dan Dickau and Fred Jones. On the surface, this seems like a home run -- the Knicks got a 20-10 guy in return for two guys they'll hardly use.

Honestly, I'd like this trade a lot better for New York if they'd turn around and trade Randolph some place else. He's an important chip that came at a surprisingly low cost, but he really doesn't fit New York's personnel well.

The combo of Randolph and Eddy Curry will be the worst defensive frontcourt in basketball, and meanwhile only one of them can post up at any given time. Yes, Randolph has a nice touch from outside, but that's not where the focus of his game should be. And the two of them both are poor passers from the low block, which means teammates won't benefit much from the double teams they draw.

I don't fault Isiah for making this deal, because on talent alone it was probably too good to pass up, but I'm really interested to see whether he's going to keep Randolph. On the surface, it seems Randolph and Curry will diminish each other's production (not to mention the minutes of supersub David Lee), and the gain will be far less than it appears on paper.

Alternatively, one really has to appreciate the approach Kevin Pritchard is taking to building the Blazers. In Frye he adds a second power forward who can shoot -- joining LaMarcus Aldridge -- which should give Oden plenty of room to operate on the low block. Room that Randolph was going to take away, mind you, which was one incentive for making the deal.

Additionally, he's positioned himself to have oodles of cap space in 2009 when Francis and Raef LaFrentz come off the books -- right before he has to extend the deals of Aldridge, Roy and Sergio Rodriguez. By that point, one would expect Portland to be a coveted free-agent destination, and so the Blazers could do a lot of damage in the market that summer & if Seattle doesn't beat them to the punch.

So the two Northwest teams just made their foundations a whole lot stronger, while two more Eastern teams rolled the dice on big contracts that are questionable fits with the current roster. Just another day in the NBA, it seems, where the chips keep piling up at the Western side of the table after two more Eastern GMs went all-in with weak hands.

John Hollinger writes for ESPN Insider. To e-mail him, click here.

[jn]

I liked the Wolves getting Brewer. I think he will be a fine player.

The Hawks had an excellent draft with Horford and Law although I doubt an improved roster can overcome all the other problems in the organization.

JoMal, my condolences.  I don't like the Kings pick of Hawes at all.   

zig, things are really looking up for Portland on all fronts. 

[Reality]

Francis has all kinds of physical talent.  If he could score a work ethic and team ball mentality then Portland has just scored the best one year and continuing turnaround since Lurker and Pop agonized but eventually took Tim Dunkan over Keith Van Horn.

[Derek Bodner]

JoMal, my condolences.  I don't like the Kings pick of Hawes at all.   

I like it very much.  I was hoping he fell to 12.

Very nicely put by Hollinger.

[JoMal]

ziggy

My opinion of the worst lottery pick is the Kings.  For some reason I keep seeing Jon Koncak, Joe Kliene, Blair Rassmussen, Todd McCullough, Eric Montross, Bryant Reeves, Cherokee Parks, Todd Fuller, Micheal Dolec, Chris Mihm, and    Rafael Araujo when I look at Spencer Hawes.

JoMal, my condolences.  I don't like the Kings pick of Hawes at all.   

And here I was, wondering if I was going to have to beg for some commentary on the King's pick. I even had a whinny comehither opening that would have lured potential posters into a wide realm of insights. There went that idea.

I am holding out some hope that Petrie knows what he is doing. As it is, getting a Vlade Divac wannabe could work out - in about ten years.

But I have to look at the bright side of things as well. How deep is NEXT year's draft going to be, especially in the top five range?

I hear ole' Spence plans to partake in Divac's School of Flopping this summer, which includes Vlade's world-reknown conditioning regiment and weight training.

It is offered over the Internet. I took it and gained twenty pounds and a tendency to fall out of my chair any time my boss comes near me with any new work.

It comes with a nicotine patch, but, like Vlade, I like to get my nicotine from cigarettes.

 

[Skandery]

Random thoughts about various teams and players:

Portland:  

I didn't like the deal, and its less about the deal in and of itself than it is about the fact they've now lost the opportunity to use Zach Randolph to either trade for Richard Jefferson or do a sign-n-trade for the likes of Rashard Lewis or even Gerald Wallace.  I think all of those options are better than getting a solid "backup" for Aldridge and Oden (in Frye) and Stevie Franchise's ankles and attitude.  I think the ball was dropped and that they really could've have done a whole heck of a lot better.    

Atlanta:

Should really start having their draft picks revoked, at least until they fire Billy Knight.  Al Horford at #3 instead of Mike Conley Jr.  Maybe Horford is the better player, he's also completely unnecessary on that roster.  Acie Law IV is going to be a bad pick at #11 who looked better than he really was because he had a really good coach.  He's that Royal Ivey, Speedy Claxton type of player than Knight continues to try to pass off as NBA level PG options.  Get a PG you idiot!    

Spencer Hawes:

This guy is going to be AWFUL with a capital AW!  About the only saving grace for him and the one thing that may make me eat my words is the fact that Petrie drafted him.  Absolutely awful:  unathletic enough to make his skillful post game irrelevant in the NBA and doesn't defend or rebound worth a lick--two things 7 footers generally are counted on to do.

Charlotte deals Brandan Wright for Jason Richardson:

Have I fallen into a nether-realm without noticing.  Everything I've read says that GS got away with highway robbery!  WHAT!  Is this opposite day or something:  has J-Rich all of a sudden become something other than a 20 point scorer, great rebounding guard, athletic defender, who has improved his long range game considerably over the last couple of years.  What the heck are these guys smoking, Charlotte got away with MURDER on this one.  Who knows what Brandan Wright is or ever will become--the Bob-kitties are now fielding a starting 5 of Raymond Felton, Jason Richardson, Gerald Wallace (if re-signed), Sean May, and Emeka Okafor.  If I'm a Charlotte fan, I expect that team not only to make the playoffs but make some noice once there.  Great deal for Charlotte, not really sure about where it puts GS.

Seattle gets Jeff Green, Wally Szszcerbiak, and Delonte West for Ray Allen and Big Baby Davis:

Hard to say either way, but Presti did make his cap outlook a whole lot brighter.  Boston definitely improves here.  Yes, Ray Allen just had surgeries on both ankles, but I've yet to know the guy as anything other than a consisten mid-20's scorer with a devastating shooting stroke.  I don't see it changing at the age of 31, maybe I'm wrong.  Seattle on the other hand kind of muddles up the SF question:  You now have Kevin Durant, Jeff Green, Wally Szszcerbiak, and Rashard Lewis (if you intend to sign him) all at the SF position.  By just playing one of these guys at SF, instantly three other players are playing out of position and its three pretty important players.  If this stands as is, I'm underwhelmed, if its a springboard for some other shrewd move down the line that'll be different.      

Dallas drafts Nick Fazekas and Detroit drafts Rodney Stuckey:

I think this might be another case of the rich getting richer.  I considered Fazekas a Top 15 prospect let alone falling into the second round.  We're talking about a good rebounding, great shooting (53% FG, 35% three, 81% FT), 6`11 guy who was the cornerstone of a Nevada team that gave people fits in the last two NCAA tournaments.  In Stuckey, you're talking about a guy who would have likely become the best guard drafted in this entire class.  I was very high on both of these guys and they've gone to essentially complete teams that don't need their services for a very long time (Booooooooo!!).  Darn you Joe Dumars and Donnie Nelson for being smart executives, drafting guys like these makes Lurker's list (#3 for Dumars, #2 for Nelson) that much more credible in my book.

Philadelphia:

Awesome pick in Thaddeus Young, he is better than Julian Wright and MOST definitely better than Al Thornton.  Another great pick in Daequan Cook which they then gave to Miami--bad move.  Byars for Koponen isn't bad, but they should've just kept the pick and taken fliers on Fazekas, Davis, or McRoberts.      

  

[jn]

Oh, and the Suns got Alando Tucker, another speedy, high flying guy who attacks, attacks, attacks.  No outside shot but a respectable defender.  

[westkoast]

Not sure how I feel about the Lakers picks.  I'll have to wait and see as I had not really heard about anyone they took except for Pau Gasol's brother.

The front end of the draft went exactly like I assumed it would be.  Chicago picking up Noah was a suprise to me.  How much more young talent do they need? lol

[Joe Vancil]

Well, it's obvious that ziggy, Skander, and me don't write the paychecks for NBA teams, because I'm with you guys on the Richardson deal - what a steal for Charlotte!  If they either add Rashard Lewis or keep Gerald Wallace, that team now has a serious look about it.

My hope was that the Jazz got Belinelli...leave it to Don Nelson to screw that up.

Loved the Mavericks getting richer by getting Fazekas in the second round.  I thought Portland really bolstered what might be a shallow power forward spot by picking up McRoberts - who has played with Oden before! 

I'm not altogether pleased with the Randolph deal for Portland.  I think they could have gotten a Richard Jefferson or the like.  HOWEVER, Portland now has several young pieces and a few over-inflated contracts to trade to MINNESOTA for a certain player who could be truly appreciated....and if not, then they can still eat Francis's contract, and that's a lot of cap room freed up to keep their young nucleus around for a while.

I'm not as down on Hawes as everyone else is.  I think he'll be just like his uncle - a poor man's version of Rik Smits.  Okay, a VERY poor man's version of Rik Smits.

I'm still shrugging at Seattle.  I'm not as high on Durant as everyone else is, but did anyone bother to notice that Atlanta just got Green, Szczerbiak, and Durant - all of whom play the exact same position as Lewis - who is a free agent that needs to be kept, and pretty much play the same spot as Wilkins and Gelebale?  What it this - Snow White (Luke Ridnour) and the Seven Small Forwards?

Philadelphia fans - fire your GM.  Thaddeus Young plays small forward - which just happens to be one spot where you don't really need any help, with Korver, Iguodala, Carney, etc.  And to top it off, while I like Byars, do you really need to try to compete with Seattle for grabbing up all the small forwards?  After all - how many teams out there are saying, "Oh, we're just fine, as long as we can find a good small forward?"

My value pick - other than Oden - for a team getting the most useful player with the lowest pick possible:  Jared Jordan at 45 for the Clippers.  This kid can play the point, and the Clippers need someone who is willing to pass the ball to Elton Brand.  I'm also thinking that D.J. Strawberry at 59 is going to pay off for Phoenix when Raja Bell goes south.

I think the off-season is just getting started.

[Lurker]

I would like to add that I like the pick by the Lakers.  Crittenton and Bynum should grow into a very talented combo.  With Walton now locked up for 5-6 years the Lakers have a solid young core.

IMO all they are missing right NOW is some strong veteran leadership to nurture these young guys and help them grow into NBA stars.  I wonder if the Lakers could find anyone like that.

[westkoast]

IMO all they are missing right NOW is some strong veteran leadership to nurture these young guys and help them grow into NBA stars.  I wonder if the Lakers could find anyone like that.

Are you trying to say being an egomaniac, loud mouth whiner who can't put other people before them self  is not characteristics that make up a good leader?  Good thing you don't run a business Lurker....

On a serious note...hmm Chauncey Billups maybe?  He is an FA..the Lakers don't have a good defensive PG......has a lot of playoff experience....is a TRUE leader......yet no mention from LA LA about him.  WTF does Mitch Kupchek do all day?!

[JoMal]

I would like to add that I like the pick by the Lakers.  Crittenton and Bynum should grow into a very talented combo.  With Walton now locked up for 5-6 years the Lakers have a solid young core.

IMO all they are missing right NOW is some strong veteran leadership to nurture these young guys and help them grow into NBA stars.  I wonder if the Lakers could find anyone like that.

Eh? Crittenton may have some potential, but at this point, that is all you can hope for out of this guy. He is not a natural point guard, meaning that the triangle is going to be Greek to him for some time, which means he will be of little use for the forseeable future. He also has a low basketball IQ, poor shot selection, and my favorite, an extreme tendency for the fancy passes like my old favorite Jason Williams.

So you get a kid with 5.8 assists last year.....and 3.9 turnovers...... per game.

Good luck with those ratios at the pro level.   

[rickortreat]

Philadelphia fans - fire your GM.  Thaddeus Young plays small forward - which just happens to be one spot where you don't really need any help, with Korver, Iguodala, Carney, etc.  And to top it off, while I like Byars, do you really need to try to compete with Seattle for grabbing up all the small forwards?  After all - how many teams out there are saying, "Oh, we're just fine, as long as we can find a good small forward?"



I think the off-season is just getting started.

IMO, Thadeus will be a replacement for Kyle Korver and Philly will put Igoudala at the 2 spot instead. Billy has indicated that he expects the roster to change before the season starts, but who knows what he has in mind.  I can't fault him for not making a deal to move up- if the price is too high, it's a bad deal.