Mavs do the job

[Rolando Blackman]

Hey y'all!
   
One of the strangest reversals of dominance has been exhibited in the last few years by the Don Nelson-coached Golden State Warriors and the Avery Johnson-led Dallas Mavericks.  The Mavericks have generally kicked boot on everyone for the last couple of years - except GS.  I think I saw on some TNT graphic that up until last night, the Mavs were 2-8 vs. the Warriors of late.  To the (admittedly less than ultimately knowledgeable) fan, it does not seem possible from what appearances are.  What is up here?
   
NOTE:  I love HD!
   
I think that the Warriors are not being given credit for the defense they were playing.  By occupying the passing lanes almost perfectly,They forced Dallas into jump-shooting mode, and they couldn't hit.
   
This strategy would have worked in game 2, except for two Mavs players that brought their 'A' games with them, Devin Harris and Josh Howard.  Devin Harris is the quickest player I have seen for his size since Travis Best first entered the league with the Pacers.  And, he has the ability to drive to the hole where there doesn't seem to be any room for him to do so.  Howard reminds me of a young Scottie Pippen - like Pippen when he was young, he too (as well a Harris) needs to develop his outside shot to complete his game.
   
Harris repeatedly broke down the Warrior interior defense on dribble-drives (Chickie baby - snif...) to the basket, and almost single-handedly broke the GS defense down to where it could no longer impose the midrange shot limitation on Dallas.  Not only that, he took some charges (and was on the losing end of a rather egregious blocking foul that sent Cuban into paroxyzms of disbelief) and played hard-nosed 'D' like he meant it!  Jason Terry, take note... 

GS really lost the game when they let their emotions get away from them...it was ovah after that.
   
Nowitzki was about as invisible as a 'superstar' scoring 23 can be.  No defensive contribution at all.
   
-RB
Shaq #1
   

[westkoast]

It is a couple of things.....

First it is the matchups, for whatever reason GS just matches up real well with Dallas.  They beat them the year before when Nelson was not there.  No one on Dallas can hang with Baron Davis and Stephen Jackson is scoring with ease.

Second, their defense against Dallas is pretty good.  Much better then any other teams i've seen them play.  I am going to assume that since Don Nelson build that offense he knows where his players need to be to slow it down.  Nelly knows Dirk so well that he has Stephen Jackson and Al Harrington really sticking it to him.  He hasn't quite been the Dirk we are use to seeing.

[rickortreat]

I didn't even write about this series as being a must win for Dallas.  I knew they were going to win.

Dallas is simply the better team.  Yes, they have problems matching up with the Warriors, but that really doesn't matter, since Dallas can score with them no matter what the Warriors do.

Dallas like to run and get in the open floor, but the should want to run half-court sets against the smaller Warriors.  Dallas should pound the ball inside relentlessly, getting the Warriors into foul trouble and getting Dirk and Dampier inside shots.

Even with Baron Davis, the best the Warriors could do was stay even.  Dallas has the edge on the boards and in overall talent.  It isn't that the Warriors can't win, but if Dallas plays their game they will win.

[westkoast]

I didn't even write about this series as being a must win for Dallas.  I knew they were going to win.

Dallas is simply the better team.  Yes, they have problems matching up with the Warriors, but that really doesn't matter, since Dallas can score with them no matter what the Warriors do.

Dallas like to run and get in the open floor, but the should want to run half-court sets against the smaller Warriors.  Dallas should pound the ball inside relentlessly, getting the Warriors into foul trouble and getting Dirk and Dampier inside shots.

Even with Baron Davis, the best the Warriors could do was stay even.  Dallas has the edge on the boards and in overall talent.  It isn't that the Warriors can't win, but if Dallas plays their game they will win.

 

Rick...The Warriors won the first game and were actually up by 6 for a portion of the 2nd.  They stayed even until Dallas made a small push in the 3rd and then Baron was ejected.

[Skandery]

Golden State compounded their horribly bad shot selection with unchecked emotions and extracurricular nonsense.  Yeah it was a free-throw parade for Dallas, but as GS you just have to expect that when you're undersized and an 8 seed.  If Baron Davis were healthy.........


Series will be over in 5, count on it.

[westkoast]

Golden State compounded their horribly bad shot selection with unchecked emotions and extracurricular nonsense.  Yeah it was a free-throw parade for Dallas, but as GS you just have to expect that when you're undersized and an 8 seed.  If Baron Davis were healthy.........


Series will be over in 5, count on it.

Too bad we cannot bet Skand because I don't think the series is going to be that one sided.  I don't think GS will advance but this will be 6 games at least if not 7.

[rickortreat]

You're lucky you can't bet him Westcoast.  Very likely over in 5. Dallas does not want to work that hard to get through the first round to find the Suns rested and waiting.

The sooner they put the Warriors out the better.  Important for Dallas to win the first game in 'Frisco.  Dallas is not an intimidating team.  That's ok, but they will have to make it clear to the Warriors they aren't good enough, by executing on offense.

G.S. has no answer for Dallas' offense.

[Lurker]

You're lucky you can't bet him Westcoast.  Very likely over in 5. Dallas does not want to work that hard to get through the first round to find the Suns rested and waiting.

Problem is that Dallas will have to beat the Rockets (or Jazz) before they can get to the Suns.

[westkoast]

You're lucky you can't bet him Westcoast.  Very likely over in 5. Dallas does not want to work that hard to get through the first round to find the Suns rested and waiting.

The sooner they put the Warriors out the better.  Important for Dallas to win the first game in 'Frisco.  Dallas is not an intimidating team.  That's ok, but they will have to make it clear to the Warriors they aren't good enough, by executing on offense.

G.S. has no answer for Dallas' offense.

No one wants to work hard in the first few rounds.  Although Dallas has a knack of pushing series they should have won quicker to 7 games like they did last year.

Dallas defense has no answer for Baron Davis or Stephen Jackson.  GS actually has put the Mavs offense in check better then anyone I've seen this year.  Did you watch the last two games?  The GS defense has been very impressive.

[Skandery]

Dallas defense has no answer for Baron Davis or Stephen Jackson.

No need to have an answer when both guys get ejected.

GS actually has put the Mavs offense in check better then anyone I've seen this year.  Did you watch the last two games?  The GS defense has been very impressive.

It has been very impressive, actually. 

The 43-27 free throw disparity in Game 2 told GS exactly what the refs think of that kind of defense, though.

The refs thought it was all fun and games to let the loveable goofballs get away with their gimmicks until they actually won Game 1.  They won't let that happen again, and Dallas is very wise to that fact. 

I also think Nellie dug his team's grave when he announced, "looks like its going to be a long series" after Game 1.  Shoulda bit your tongue, Nellie.  

[westkoast]

Dallas defense has no answer for Baron Davis or Stephen Jackson.

No need to have an answer when both guys get ejected.

GS actually has put the Mavs offense in check better then anyone I've seen this year.  Did you watch the last two games?  The GS defense has been very impressive.

It has been very impressive, actually. 

The 43-27 free throw disparity in Game 2 told GS exactly what the refs think of that kind of defense, though.

The refs thought it was all fun and games to let the loveable goofballs get away with their gimmicks until they actually won Game 1.  They won't let that happen again, and Dallas is very wise to that fact. 

I also think Nellie dug his team's grave when he announced, "looks like its going to be a long series" after Game 1.  Shoulda bit your tongue, Nellie.  

Is that the game plan now?  Try to get Baron Davis and Stephen Jackson kicked for the rest of the games in the series? LOL  Sounds like a crappy game plan and one that isn't going to work.  Maybe if they get Salvatore to ref the next few games it would be possible.

That FT disparity had alot to do with technicals and cheap whistles in the Mavs favor.   Which should be expected as they are on their home court.  They put GS over the limit pretty quick on two of those QTs.  You are making it sound as if the defense is cheap and all they do is foul.  They've been doing an excellent job of disrupting Dirk and staying in front of everyone (except Jason Terry).  Josh Howard and Dirk both have not really been themselves.

Dallas can play either half court ball or fast break ball....right now everyone says for them to play half court ball but I think they would have a better chance of running it on GS.

[Laker Fan]

Oh no Rick, Dallas is not the better team! That is why they are still playing the game! How do you swallow a good glass of Black Bush with those 2 holes in your neck you are constantly talking out both sides of? I guess your inane assessment on the SA/Den thread only count when Iverson is onthe underdog team hmm?

[rickortreat]

The difference is that the Warriors really are an 8th seed and the Mavericks are a 1.

So far they have done everything the Nuggets have to take the series, but in spite of that similarity I give them no shot.

They just don't have the talent to take the Mavericks.  I have great confidence that Dallas will win the next game and take control over the series.  If Dallas fails to win tonight, I will be forced to re-evaluate.  It would be a serious mistake for Dallas to go down 2-1 with another away game.

Same thing for the Spurs. They have to take control by winning the first game in Denver, or the odds of them getting to the next round go down severely.

The statistics are very clear on this.  The winner of the first game in these series wins like 70% of the time.  IMO, Dallas overlooked the Warriors first game.  The Spurs didn't overlook the Nuggets, they just didn't have a good game plan to stop them.  They adjusted in game 2, and the Nuggets will have to adjust to win in game 3.

[WayOutWest]

The difference is that the Warriors really are an 8th seed and the Mavericks are a 1.

So far they have done everything the Nuggets have to take the series, but in spite of that similarity I give them no shot.

They just don't have the talent to take the Mavericks.  I have great confidence that Dallas will win the next game and take control over the series.  If Dallas fails to win tonight, I will be forced to re-evaluate.  It would be a serious mistake for Dallas to go down 2-1 with another away game.

Same thing for the Spurs. They have to take control by winning the first game in Denver, or the odds of them getting to the next round go down severely.

The statistics are very clear on this.  The winner of the first game in these series wins like 70% of the time.  IMO, Dallas overlooked the Warriors first game.  The Spurs didn't overlook the Nuggets, they just didn't have a good game plan to stop them.  They adjusted in game 2, and the Nuggets will have to adjust to win in game 3.

I completely disagree, the Spurs only NEED a split at Denver.  After that they regain home court advantage.

[rickortreat]

While it's true they only need a split to regain homecourt, that isn't the point.  If they loose game 3, the Nuggets will start to think of themselves as the better team and the Spurs will be at a distinct psychological disadvantage.

This is playoff dynamics.  The better team usually wins over a 7 game series, and they do so, by winning the psych game as much as on the court.  These series only go to 7 if the teams are evenly matched and then it comes down to luck. Which is why homecourt is so big in these series. Typically in those series, both teams win on their homecourt. 

The Spurs need to take control over the series and close the Nuggets out, not just to beat them, but to get through the series so they can win the next one.

If the series goes to 7, the Spurs will get taken out in one of the next two rounds depending on matchups.  I say that because when a team struggles to get through to the next round and their opponent has a cakewalk, they don't have time to recover thanks to fatigue.

IF the Nuggets win game 3, they will be more than a little encouraged.  They will try to close out the Spurs by doing the same thing in game 4 and they will go back to SA down 3-1.  That's a formula for disaster for the Spurs, one more slip up and they're done.  You don't let your opponents hang around if you can help it. 

The Spurs need to establish they're the better team and make the Nuggets give up.  IF they can't do that, they'll be in for the type of series that reduces their chance of doing anything significant this year.

This is also true for Dallas.  They cannot afford to let the Warriors hang around, or get ideas about winning.  Teams that don't close out their opponents quickly in the first are usually at a disadvantage in the next.

The Spurs have the toughest road, since if they manage to get by Denver, they will have to face the Suns and Dallas in the next rounds.  They need to be at least as fresh and as rested as the teams they face if they want to win.

The last thing they need is to struggle putting out the Nuggets.  That's why they need to win game 3.