MUST win for the Spurs tonight.

[rickortreat]

The Spurs haven't proven they're better.  That's why they're still playing.  They have more experience and are deeper, but that's as far as I will go.

If the Spurs were better, they'd be up 2-0 and there'd be no discussion.  Denver is in the drivers seat now.  They are holding serve and in the psych war, they are winning. 

Just because I thought the Spurs would win yesterday, doesn't mean I think they'll take the series. 

I'm leaning Denver's way because they are hot.  It was a good lesson for them to get beat by SA this way.  The Nuggets have to play better than they did to beat the Spurs.  They can't let the Spurs take them out of their offense, they have to work harder to execute successfully.  Karl will have new offensive wrinkles in game 3 to take advantage of the Spurs team play against A.I.

The Spurs had control in game two from the begging, and Denver still came back.  It took them too long to figure out how to counteract the defense, and they never we're able to shut SA down.

Denver isn't going to win playing San Antonio's game.  They have to be more consistent on offense or work a lot harder on defense. It is easier for them to outscore SA than defend them. There's no reason why they can't.  Yesterday the Nuggets missed so many easy shots that would have kept them in the game.  Don't count on the Nuggets shooting 38.6% next game.  Worry about how the Spurs only managed to shoot 43.8% with Denver giving up all those transition baskets! 

[Lurker]

Rick...Denver most likely will continue to shoot only around 39-40%.  That is what the Spurs do to teams in the playoffs.  Denver averaged over 105 pts a game and has come no where close to that total against the Spurs.  Also the Spurs shot over 50% in the second half of both games which seems to say that fatigue is working in their favor not against them.  As far as being hot...check out which team in the NBA had the best post allstar break record.  Hint: they play in South Texas.  Both teams finished 14-6 with the Spurs on cruise control for their last 3-4 games and the Nuggets playing for playoff positioning.

Another little tidbit...look at the box scores.  Denver's starters all played big minutes in both games - every one averaging over 36 minutes in the two games.  And AI/Melo each over 42 minutes.  By contrast Parker (37.5) and Duncan (36.5) are the only Spurs to average over 36 minutes.  As the games get more important do you really think that Pop will let Denver make 4th quarter runs with Duncan & Parker both on the bench?  Don't you think that Bowen will spend more minutes on the floor?  That Ginobili will spend more time attacking?   The Spurs have 9 players averaging over 11 minutes a game.  The Nuggets have only played 8 total.  A deeper bench will prove the difference in a longer series.

[SPURSX3]

I disagree Rick.  Our season record shows we are better which is why we are the higher seed.  As for comparisons, would you say Dallas is no better than Golden State.  I wouldn't.  This is the playoffs and it is a series of best of seven, so what?  The Spurs should be the team moving on and be able to fend off the underdog Nuggets.  I don't see this being an upset as much as I don't see the Dallas MAvs getting upset by the Warriors.  I also have not seen this being as physical as it as last years playoffs to where our guys look like the walking dead going into the next round...well maybe robert horry getting stepped on was rough but other than that I think we are alright.  The Spurs go through this each year, and believe me as a Spurs fan it is nerve racking to see series after series get stretched out, but I am not worried about this series nor have I seen any reason yet to be worried about it.  Denver will put up a fight but I see SA coming out on top by the end of it.  Pop needs to shut down the answer [AI] to clog up all of his ball movement and let the cancer [Carmelo] try to carry this team by himself - yes he may score 27+ but watch the number of shots he chucks up to get there.  I still feel like the Spurs are ok for now.  We just need our big three to step it up a notch.

[westkoast]

I disagree Rick.  Our season record shows we are better which is why we are the higher seed.  As for comparisons, would you say Dallas is no better than Golden State.  I wouldn't.  This is the playoffs and it is a series of best of seven, so what?  The Spurs should be the team moving on and be able to fend off the underdog Nuggets.  I don't see this being an upset as much as I don't see the Dallas MAvs getting upset by the Warriors.  I also have not seen this being as physical as it as last years playoffs to where our guys look like the walking dead going into the next round...well maybe robert horry getting stepped on was rough but other than that I think we are alright.  The Spurs go through this each year, and believe me as a Spurs fan it is nerve racking to see series after series get stretched out, but I am not worried about this series nor have I seen any reason yet to be worried about it.  Denver will put up a fight but I see SA coming out on top by the end of it.  Pop needs to shut down the answer [AI] to clog up all of his ball movement and let the cancer [Carmelo] try to carry this team by himself - yes he may score 27+ but watch the number of shots he chucks up to get there.  I still feel like the Spurs are ok for now.  We just need our big three to step it up a notch.

I agree 100%.  SA is still the better team and has proven they are the better team this year.  Denver has not shown that they are better then SA by winning one game.  They did snatch the home court advantage and props to them for that.  They need it, SA doesn't.  GS/Dallas is a perfect example X3.  GS played Dallas well in both games and snatched home court from Dallas just the same.   Personally I  cannot say because AI joined Denver they are a better team then one that has recently won multiple championships.

[JoMal]

The Spurs haven't proven they're better.  That's why they're still playing. 

Really?

And I thought they were still playing because one team has to win four out of seven.

BTW, Rick, I admire you for taking an opposing stand to all the Spurs' posters around here. While I may agree with them in that the Spurs 'should' easily win a seven game series against Denver, it never hurts to argue the point.

[rickortreat]

They are comparing apples and oranges.  Season records: an established team with no major injuries and no big mid-season trades vs. a team with suspensions, injuries to key players and a multi-player mid season trade.  Very logical- NOT!

Excuse it any way you want, but Denver had a hotter record coming into the post season.  That is a fact.  AND, the Spurs were also trying to get to the number 2 seed, so they were trying until that possibility was eliminated by a Spurs loss!

The presumption that Denver will continue to shoot below 40% in a series, because of the vaunted Spurs defense.  That defense didn't work so well in the first game!  It did in the second, but I saw things that tell me that Denver will handle the defense better in the game three.

Spurs fans can focus on the mantra that the Spurs are a better team, but to me, the Nuggets are an unknown quantity without a long-term track record.  Any comparisons based on long term history are therefore invalid.

It is established that the Spurs are a great team, worthy of their seed and a legitimate contender to the title.  It is not established at all where the Nuggets fit in.  If they loose the series, then I'll agree with SA is the better team.  If the Nuggets win the series, I will conclude the Nuggets are a better team than the Spurs and based on the Spur's success this season, also a worthy contender for the title.

They have only won one game so far.  I remember Philly with Iverson taking one game from the Lakers in the Championship and then getting blanked.  So one game means nothing.

Game three is critical for both teams.  The Spurs are not in control of the series, at present the Nuggets are.  Because of the split in SA, the Spurs need to win one in Denver.  If the Spurs are really a better team they will win the game on Saturday and take back control of the series. If the Nuggets take the third game, all the Spurs fans will be here with the reasons why and how the Spurs will come back and take the fourth game.

I'll wait until after the third game to make a prediction about the series.  It isn't just who wins but how they win.

This is a matter of wills.  One team will try to dominate the other and take them out of the series.  I thought the Spurs did a good job of that in game 2, until the end. 

I think Denver will find a way to beat the Spurs defense.  That's why they got Iverson and Carmello.  These are great individual talents that can't be stopped consistently. Great team defense like the Spurs can present different looks that can confuse these players temporarily, but typically not consistently.

Great individual players overcome these types of obstacles.  That is why Michael Jordan is still respected as the greatest- he overcame other team's focused on stopping him.

Tim Duncan was unstoppable during the Spurs Championship runs.  He overcame the defenses thrown at him.

Now, the challenge is for the Spurs to step up again and control this series, or for Iverson and Carmello to establish themselves as stars by overcoming the Spurs defense.  They don't have to do all the scoring either- just get easy baskets for the others when they are doubled.

My opinion is that Denver has enough talent to overcome SA's team defense, and will therefore take the series in an upset. I don't think San Antonio can contain both Carmello and AI at the same time, without the other Nuggets getting easy baskets. 

Nothing I write here will change anyone's opinion. I expect the Spurs fans to support their team and believe in them until the deciding game is over. It's more fun this way to be the only one who thinks the Nuggets have a good shot to advance.

[Laker Fan]

Rick, you never cease to amaze me, I don't know if you are just playing devils advocate here or it is just another example of your woefully inadequate basketball knowledge. By your criteria, Dallas is done as well because GS holds serve right now home court wise, by your criteria, as JoMal pointed out, it is only a 1 game series and Denver won it all in game 1.

Let me spell this out for you, D-e-n-v-e-r i-s n-o-t t-h-e b-e-t-t-e-r t-e-a-m!!!! By your criteria, every team that wins a game is the better team, AFTER JUST 2 GAMES!!!!!


I honestly think you are the new agent provoceteur of this board, but I will give you credit, you don't spew hate for hates sake, that at least makes you amusing, which I will take over irritating and offensively hypocritical any day

[JoMal]

Let me spell this out for you, D-e-n-v-e-r i-s n-o-t t-h-e b-e-t-t-e-r t-e-a-m!!!! By your criteria, every team that wins a game is the better team, AFTER JUST 2 GAMES!!!!!

I honestly think you are the new agent provoceteur of this board, but I will give you credit, you don't spew hate for hates sake, that at least makes you amusing, which I will take over irritating and offensively hypocritical any day

Dandy Dan....Danno....Danny boy...

You are missing Rick's whole motivational point here. Denver has become, since a famous trade that will remain nameless, Sixers West. After a certain, let's say Artificial Intelligence appeared in the Colorado Mountains, and another "Eastern" team fell on hard times as a result, Rick must find his motivation to stay interested in these, here playoffs through some other means.

Which takes nothing away from his arguement, BTW. Just explains why he has one.   

[WayOutWest]

Spurs fans can focus on the mantra that the Spurs are a better team, but to me, the Nuggets are an unknown quantity without a long-term track record.

You need to think about that statement.  Spurs fans are betting on a "known", you seem to prefer the "unkown", is that how you invest in the stock market?  While I agree with your classification of the Spurs and Nuggets I don't agree with you favoring the "unkown".  That's not where you put your money.

Great individual players overcome these types of obstacles.  That is why Michael Jordan is still respected as the greatest- he overcame other team's focused on stopping him.

Sooooooo NOT true, MJ didn't have success until he had RELIABLE support, he won nothing on his own, he would put up Kobe-like numbers in the playoffs and get bounced by the Celtics and Pistons every year until his team mates were able to shoulder the load because the obstacles thrown at MJ did stop MJ from winning, which is the point of the playoffs.

[SPURSX3]

talk to me about Denver being a better team IF and WHEN they beat us.  Which is about the only way I would say they were the better team.

[rickortreat]

First off, JoMal is the one who sees clearly!  And he is correct about my "motivation".  However this is about logic and seeing clearly.

Spurs fans can focus on the mantra that the Spurs are a better team, but to me, the Nuggets are an unknown quantity without a long-term track record.

You need to think about that statement.  Spurs fans are betting on a "known", you seem to prefer the "unkown", is that how you invest in the stock market?  While I agree with your classification of the Spurs and Nuggets I don't agree with you favoring the "unkown".  That's not where you put your money.

Great individual players overcome these types of obstacles.  That is why Michael Jordan is still respected as the greatest- he overcame other team's focused on stopping him.

Sooooooo NOT true, MJ didn't have success until he had RELIABLE support, he won nothing on his own, he would put up Kobe-like numbers in the playoffs and get bounced by the Celtics and Pistons every year until his team mates were able to shoulder the load because the obstacles thrown at MJ did stop MJ from winning, which is the point of the playoffs.

Let me clarity please.  The Spurs are more of a known quantity based on their track record.  The Nuggets are not.  It is not because the Nuggets are unknown that I pick them to win the series.  I pick them because I think that when you have two players of Iverson and Carmello's talent, and they are surrounded by quality players like Camby and Nene and Kleiza and the rest, that they should be a very, very good team, possibly with enough talent to overcome the Spurs.  I base that on my experience watching lots of teams over the years and seeing what it takes to win a championship. 

I really don't know if the Nuggets are that good. I know I'm out on a limb here against conventional wisdom, but then again I have little respect for conventional wisdom!

In the stock market, I am in fact investing in the unknown. I do not have a crystal ball and do not know where a given stock is going. I use technical analysis to define the trends in the stock, and rely on chart patterns to make my decisions.  When I see certain pattens, I'm confident that the stock will perform as others have in the past.  But even when I make the decision, I watch the trade like a hawk until I close it out.  The action in the price tells me whether the decision was a good one, and that can change based on what happens with the price.

I don't have the same tools to analyze basketball teams. Yes, there are statistics, but not enough with the Nuggets to make a projection. Just instincts and feelings from a lot of experience watching teams.

In the case of MJ, he was a star before he won championships.  The same way AI is a star without a ring.  He needed a good team around him to win a championship.  Some players never get the chance to win a ring, but I thought would have been good enough if circumstances were different.  Reggie Miller was a player I though was worthy of a ring.  If that MJ character wasn't around, he might have actually gotten one.

AI is still in search of one, and I think he is with a significantly more talented team then the one he went to the finals with in Philly.  That team played better team defense (pre-Mutumbo) than Denver does, but Denver has a much better offense than that Philly team could ever dream of. 

Enough to beat the Spurs?  A Championship-calibur club? I'm not really sure, I think so, and watch the series to see if my thinking is justified.  So far, "the jury" is out.  The Nuggets have done enough that it seems reasonable, and I think game three will be pivotal for psychological reasons. 

To me game 1 was huge because the sixth seed shouldn't be able to do that to the three seed. Game 2 made it clear that the Spurs weren't about to roll over.  Now for Denver to upset the Spurs they need to defend their home court.  IF the Spurs win, they take control over the series.  If the Spurs loose, the Nuggets are right where they need to be to take the series. 

What is unusual is that a first round series is in doubt.  Usually the higher seed takes it no question.  But I have doubts because the Nuggets are an above average team talent wise to be sixth.  Not because I have any doubts about the Spurs.

[Reality]

What is unusual is that a first round series is in doubt.  Usually the higher seed takes it no question.  But I have doubts because the Nuggets are an above average team talent wise to be sixth.  Not because I have any doubts about the Spurs.

I'm with you on that.  Once again, like 2006 the Spurs draw a team much better then their seed would indicate due to trade deadline change.  Ron Artesty, A.I.

rickortreat wrote:

They have only won one game so far.  I remember Philly with Iverson taking one game from the Lakers in the Championship and then getting blanked.  So one game means nothing.

I have no plans to twist and distort this quote.

However rt, you also wrote: 

Excuse it any way you want, but Denver had a hotter record coming into the post season.  That is a fact.  AND, the Spurs were also trying to get to the number 2 seed, so they were trying until that possibility was eliminated by a Spurs loss!

To with you completely missed lurkers post of the facts: 

As far as being hot...check out which team in the NBA had the best post allstar break record.  Hint: they play in South Texas.  Both teams finished 14-6 with the Spurs on cruise control for their last 3-4 games and the Nuggets playing for playoff positioning. 

  One of those being the Joey Crawford burn Duncan game i might add.

[WayOutWest]

Rick,

I can totally agree with your last post, you were just intimating that the Nuggets were favored because they are an "unkown" and after having won game 1.  I totally agree that ANY team that drew the Nuggets in round one didn't know what they were in for, I think all along everyone on this board picked the Spurs/Nugs as an interesting one because of the "unkown" factor but convensional wisdom, based on track record/chart would tell you to put your money on the Spurs.

Dallas/GS is just as interesting because of the record the Warriors have posted agaisnt the Mavs, they've outright dominated the Suns over the previous 10 regular season games leading up to the playoffs.

Lakers/Suns is interesting because of last year.

I've listed the series in order of my opinion of most interesting.  So far it's been holding true but I still expect the big 3 to advance, the Suns being in the best position so far.

[Lurker]

Rick...simple math

Nuggets: 2 stars

Spurs: 3 stars

Duncan > Iverson
Parker = Melo
Manu > Nene
Finley < Camby
Bowen > Blake
Oberto > Najera
Barry > JR Smith
Horry > Kleiza
Elson >
Vaughn >

Have to use ? because Denver hasn't played anyone other than the 8 listed.

Spurs advantages:
More stars.
Deeper bench.
Better coach.
Play more styles.
More playoff experience.


And Denver's advantages are?


Which team is more talented?

[WayOutWest]

Parker = Melo

You're not helping Lurker!