Author Topic: Suns are going to win it all according to computer analysis  (Read 1981 times)

Offline WayOutWest

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Suns are going to win it all according to computer analysis
« on: April 20, 2007, 09:14:48 AM »
IMO the Mavs should be the odds on favorite. They have the balance of offense and defense that wins championships, not too mention teams with 65+ wins have won 9 out of the 10 playoffs they have participated in. These guys must be using Pentium I computers to run their simulations cause they seem to have the floating point error in their analysis.  I still think the Spurs are going to shock the West.

Story:

http://msn.foxsports.com/nba/story/6707060

We like the Suns' chances
WhatIfSports.com / Special to FOXSports.com
Posted: 13 hours ago

If the WhatIfSports.com computer is right — and it usually is (more on that later) — the Phoenix Suns will defeat the Detroit Pistons to claim the 2007 NBA Championship.

WhatIfSports.com used its acclaimed basketball simulation technology to attempt to forecast the future by simulating the entire 2007 NBA playoffs 10,000 times.
Results of these simulations can be found at www.BracketPreview.com.

This analysis allows the site to determine exactly how great of a chance a team has of reaching any round of the playoffs. Last season, for instance, WhatIfSports.com gave the Miami Heat a 12% chance of taking home the championship. The Dallas Mavericks, who became surprising title contenders after getting through the San Antonio-Phoenix gauntlet, were given a 22.5% chance of advancing through the bracket to the NBA Finals.


Will the Pistons beat the Magic? According to the computer, it's a slam dunk. (Allen Einstein/NBAE / Getty Images)

According to the computer output, the team with the highest likelihood of being this year's Cinderella (a team seeded in the bottom half of the conference with a decent chance at winning it all) is the Eastern Conference's 5-seeded Chicago Bulls (8.5% chance of making the Finals and 4.1% chance of winning it all). Of course, this may be misleading as the Bulls obtained the third-best record in the East and will have homecourt advantage in the first round against Miami.

The Denver Nuggets are the only seed below #5 to win the championship at least 50 times in 10,000 simulations, though Golden State and Los Angeles each have a 0.8% chance of reaching the finals. This is the same percentage this analysis gave George Mason of making the Final Four last season. It's possible, but definitely not likely.

In the first round, WhatIfSports.com is only predicting one true upset, though due to health issues (good and bad) the teams are much closer than the seeds. The third-seeded Toronto Raptors won the Atlantic Division, yet lost versatile rookies Jorge Garbajosa and Andrea Bargnani down the stretch. On the flip side, with Richard Jefferson healthy, Mikki Moore coming into his own and sharp-shooting Bostjan Nachbar lighting it up, New Jersey finished the season hot, winning 10 of its last 13 to end the season right at .500 and earn the Eastern Conference's sixth seed. The two teams split the four-game regular-season series. In the simulation, the close series goes seven games, but with the Nets advancing 52% of the time. Really, this, or any other series in which no team has greater than a 60% advantage, could easily go either way.

On the other end of the spectrum, Detroit obliterates the young Orlando Magic 99.2% of the time. In simulation it is hard to predict a sweep of a seven-game series, yet it happens here. Dwight Howard and company may be on the rise, but no Eastern Conference team is as complete as the Pistons.

Ultimately, though, the WhatIfSports.com-simulated NBA playoffs conclude with the second-seeded Phoenix Suns on top. Phoenix has the highest chance of winning the championship at 26.0%. Steve Nash and Phoenix's high-paced offense carried the team to a franchise-record 61 wins. The simulation (like real-life) appreciates efficiency — field-goal shooting, points per possession and limited turnovers — and the Suns are as efficient a team as the league has seen in many years. In the regular season, Phoenix shot 49.4% from the field, almost five full percent better than its opposition, to go with an impressive 40% accuracy from three-point land. The Suns face Kobe Bryant and the Los Angeles Lakers in the first round. The simulation has the favorites advancing to the second round 81.7% of the time.

Still, 26.0% is roughly one-out-of-four. That means that, even though Phoenix is the favorite, it is still failing to win the championship about three more times than it is winning. That leaves plenty of room for other contenders. Even though the Detroit Pistons have the second best chance of winning the title (21.1%), the Western Conference is once again favored, winning 56.1% of the championships.

The Suns and Pistons are followed by Western Conference top seed Dallas (16.7%) and Eastern Conference fourth seed Miami (12.6%) before a drop-off to Utah (6.1%), Cleveland (6.1%) and San Antonio (5.7%).

So yes, because of the immense difficulty of just making it out of the West, the Spurs are less likely to win the championship than the Cavs.

WhatIfSports.com's sports simulation capabilities include baseball, basketball, football, hockey and auto racing. In the last few years, the site has been impressively accurate with its predictions. Just this last October, WhatIfSports.com accurately predicted that the St. Louis Cardinals would win the World Series in five games.

The computers have picked the last four Super Bowl winners correctly and boast a two-year, 69.2-percent NFL accuracy picking winners straight-up, a 57.8-percent NFL accuracy against the spread, an 80-percent college bowl accuracy straight up and 64 percent against the spread.
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Offline westkoast

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Re: Suns are going to win it all according to computer analysis
« Reply #1 on: April 20, 2007, 09:45:11 AM »
There is too many other factors to go strickly off numbers although I have to admit I do read these because I am curious.  The main problem of course is that you cannot really calculate hustle and defense fully in numbers.  When those really seperate teams from the rest of the pack in the playoffs it's hard to not kind of brush this off.

I see Detroit coming out of the EC but I see Dallas coming out of West.  How is PHX going to win when they won't make it past the second round?!
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Offline Reality

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Re: Suns are going to win it all according to computer analysis
« Reply #2 on: April 20, 2007, 11:25:01 AM »
At least this study really exists.
While I'm sure this "study" will keep lurker, koastie, msc and maybe even W.O.W. going for a while, here is an article with quotes from Suns and Lakers.
http://www.latimes.com/sports/basketball/nba/lakers/la-sp-lakerep20apr20,1,4941963.story?coll=la-headlines-sports

Book reveals opinions of Lakers
Bryant is called 'arrogant' and Brown is described as 'awful' in book about last year's Suns.
By Mike Bresnahan, Times Staff Writer
April 20, 2007


 
In addition to scouring video for any added advantage against the Phoenix Suns, the Lakers might also want to sit back and read a good book.

Longtime Sports Illustrated reporter Jack McCallum spent last season with the Suns, documenting the inner workings of the high-scoring curiosity piece in a 312-page account that could provide a wealth of bulletin-board material for the Lakers, who begin another first-round series with the Suns on Sunday.

An all-access look at one of the league's top teams, ":07 Seconds or Less" devotes more than 100 pages to last year's playoff series between the Suns and Lakers, eventually won by the Suns in seven games. The book, named after the Suns' mantra to fire up a shot before seven seconds tick off the shot clock, includes several scenes in which Kobe Bryant, Phil Jackson and the Lakers in general are panned by the Suns.

"As the Suns see it, the Lakers trek along the low road," McCallum wrote. "Bryant is arrogant. [Kwame] Brown is just a big body with nothing behind it. Smush Parker was a Sun for a couple of weeks [in 2004-05] and no one rued his departure. Lamar Odom is just too damn big and long. Luke Walton seems like a nice guy … but he laid out [Tim] Thomas in Game 3 and triggered a miserable chain of events [for the Suns]. Sasha Vujacic is an all-universe whiner with an unpronounceable surname. Plus, Phil Jackson sits on a throne."

The Lakers are aware of the book, which was released last fall, and perused copies of it long before the Suns became their playoff opponent.

Some of the things they have likely noted:

•  The Suns, while watching video of their Game 1 victory, poked fun at the Lakers' defense.

"This is when we're at our best, when we're changing ends on the fly," Coach Mike D'Antoni said. "They have no answer for it. Kwame is awful. Odom's a very average defender. Vujacic can't guard anybody. And Bryant in the open floor takes chances that aren't good."

•  Suns owner Robert Sarver had issues with some millionaire courtside fans at Staples Center. He thought Norm Pattiz was getting into the face of Thomas during Game 3 and told the Westwood One Radio Network founder before Game 4, "You ever touch one of my players again, you'll have me to deal with."

Sarver was also mad that actor-director Penny Marshall was near the Suns' huddle before Game 3, talking to some of the Suns' players.

"This L.A. [expletive] has got to stop," Sarver said afterward. "This is war. I hate those guys."

•  While Suns coaches watched video of Game 3, Jackson wandered into the frame with his painful side-to-side walk.

"Look!" one of the coaches blurted out. "It's the Penguin!"

•  After the Lakers took a 3-1 series lead, D'Antoni wondered aloud why so many people were lauding Bryant's share-the-ball approach.

"They're talking about Kobe and how great it is that he's playing with the team," D'Antoni said. "Well, isn't that what you're supposed to do? Now he's the savior because he's playing that way? He's no god. He does what he's supposed to be doing, which is what we learned in kindergarten. Share the ball and play."

•  An unidentified member of the Lakers left a scouting report of the Suns at the Ritz-Carlton Hotel after Game 5 in Phoenix. It quickly ended up in the hands of Suns coaches, much to the Lakers' dismay.

A part that wasn't in the book: Jackson called a hotel official and wondered how the document ended up in the Suns' possession. He was informed that all trash from hotel rooms is typically shredded. The hotel official said he would get back to Jackson after investigating the matter further. To this day, Jackson still hasn't heard back from the official, a team source said.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


More recently, the Suns haven't exactly downplayed their thoughts of the Lakers, beginning with forward Amare Stoudemire's statement last week that "I think we would take care of them pretty quick" if the teams met in the first round.

Bryant said the Lakers would "put [Stoudemire's] clairvoyancy to the test," and other Lakers weren't so sure the series would be done so quickly.

"That's his opinion," Walton said. "If he thinks it's going to go four, good for him. They've proven they're a great team. We're the ones that are going to have to play great basketball if we want to win. They've played great basketball all year and they've got home-court advantage, but I don't think it's going to be a four-game series."

Bryant was asked if the Suns (61-21) might be a tad overconfident in viewing the Lakers (42-40).

"I'm sure they are," he said. "Their team's won like, what, 60-something games, whatever it is. I'm sure they're confident. I'm sure they believe it's going to be a quick series. It's our job to try and prove them wrong."

The Lakers will try to do what they did last season and pound the ball inside to their big men, although the presence of Stoudemire will make things more difficult. He missed almost all of last season, including the playoff series against the Lakers, because of knee problems, but has averaged 20.4 points and 9.6 rebounds this season.

"We're going to try to slow it down," Walton said. "That's no secret. Now we've got Kwame back. That's big for us. Ronny [Turiaf] has been playing great. [Andrew] Bynum is starting to play well again.

"We've got to focus on getting the ball inside all game long and not just for a little bit and then start settling for jumpers. If you settle for a jumper against Phoenix and if you don't make it, it's like a turnover, where they're off to the races."




Offline westkoast

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Re: Suns are going to win it all according to computer analysis
« Reply #3 on: April 20, 2007, 12:33:56 PM »
At least this study really exists.
While I'm sure this "study" will keep lurker, koastie, msc and maybe even W.O.W. going for a while, here is an article with quotes from Suns and Lakers.
http://www.latimes.com/sports/basketball/nba/lakers/la-sp-lakerep20apr20,1,4941963.story?coll=la-headlines-sports

Book reveals opinions of Lakers
Bryant is called 'arrogant' and Brown is described as 'awful' in book about last year's Suns.
By Mike Bresnahan, Times Staff Writer
April 20, 2007


 
In addition to scouring video for any added advantage against the Phoenix Suns, the Lakers might also want to sit back and read a good book.

Longtime Sports Illustrated reporter Jack McCallum spent last season with the Suns, documenting the inner workings of the high-scoring curiosity piece in a 312-page account that could provide a wealth of bulletin-board material for the Lakers, who begin another first-round series with the Suns on Sunday.

An all-access look at one of the league's top teams, ":07 Seconds or Less" devotes more than 100 pages to last year's playoff series between the Suns and Lakers, eventually won by the Suns in seven games. The book, named after the Suns' mantra to fire up a shot before seven seconds tick off the shot clock, includes several scenes in which Kobe Bryant, Phil Jackson and the Lakers in general are panned by the Suns.

"As the Suns see it, the Lakers trek along the low road," McCallum wrote. "Bryant is arrogant. [Kwame] Brown is just a big body with nothing behind it. Smush Parker was a Sun for a couple of weeks [in 2004-05] and no one rued his departure. Lamar Odom is just too damn big and long. Luke Walton seems like a nice guy … but he laid out [Tim] Thomas in Game 3 and triggered a miserable chain of events [for the Suns]. Sasha Vujacic is an all-universe whiner with an unpronounceable surname. Plus, Phil Jackson sits on a throne."

The Lakers are aware of the book, which was released last fall, and perused copies of it long before the Suns became their playoff opponent.

Some of the things they have likely noted:

•  The Suns, while watching video of their Game 1 victory, poked fun at the Lakers' defense.

"This is when we're at our best, when we're changing ends on the fly," Coach Mike D'Antoni said. "They have no answer for it. Kwame is awful. Odom's a very average defender. Vujacic can't guard anybody. And Bryant in the open floor takes chances that aren't good."

•  Suns owner Robert Sarver had issues with some millionaire courtside fans at Staples Center. He thought Norm Pattiz was getting into the face of Thomas during Game 3 and told the Westwood One Radio Network founder before Game 4, "You ever touch one of my players again, you'll have me to deal with."

Sarver was also mad that actor-director Penny Marshall was near the Suns' huddle before Game 3, talking to some of the Suns' players.

"This L.A. [expletive] has got to stop," Sarver said afterward. "This is war. I hate those guys."

•  While Suns coaches watched video of Game 3, Jackson wandered into the frame with his painful side-to-side walk.

"Look!" one of the coaches blurted out. "It's the Penguin!"

•  After the Lakers took a 3-1 series lead, D'Antoni wondered aloud why so many people were lauding Bryant's share-the-ball approach.

"They're talking about Kobe and how great it is that he's playing with the team," D'Antoni said. "Well, isn't that what you're supposed to do? Now he's the savior because he's playing that way? He's no god. He does what he's supposed to be doing, which is what we learned in kindergarten. Share the ball and play."

•  An unidentified member of the Lakers left a scouting report of the Suns at the Ritz-Carlton Hotel after Game 5 in Phoenix. It quickly ended up in the hands of Suns coaches, much to the Lakers' dismay.

A part that wasn't in the book: Jackson called a hotel official and wondered how the document ended up in the Suns' possession. He was informed that all trash from hotel rooms is typically shredded. The hotel official said he would get back to Jackson after investigating the matter further. To this day, Jackson still hasn't heard back from the official, a team source said.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


More recently, the Suns haven't exactly downplayed their thoughts of the Lakers, beginning with forward Amare Stoudemire's statement last week that "I think we would take care of them pretty quick" if the teams met in the first round.

Bryant said the Lakers would "put [Stoudemire's] clairvoyancy to the test," and other Lakers weren't so sure the series would be done so quickly.

"That's his opinion," Walton said. "If he thinks it's going to go four, good for him. They've proven they're a great team. We're the ones that are going to have to play great basketball if we want to win. They've played great basketball all year and they've got home-court advantage, but I don't think it's going to be a four-game series."

Bryant was asked if the Suns (61-21) might be a tad overconfident in viewing the Lakers (42-40).

"I'm sure they are," he said. "Their team's won like, what, 60-something games, whatever it is. I'm sure they're confident. I'm sure they believe it's going to be a quick series. It's our job to try and prove them wrong."

The Lakers will try to do what they did last season and pound the ball inside to their big men, although the presence of Stoudemire will make things more difficult. He missed almost all of last season, including the playoff series against the Lakers, because of knee problems, but has averaged 20.4 points and 9.6 rebounds this season.

"We're going to try to slow it down," Walton said. "That's no secret. Now we've got Kwame back. That's big for us. Ronny [Turiaf] has been playing great. [Andrew] Bynum is starting to play well again.

"We've got to focus on getting the ball inside all game long and not just for a little bit and then start settling for jumpers. If you settle for a jumper against Phoenix and if you don't make it, it's like a turnover, where they're off to the races."





I don't think it really matters all that much...I mean it was written by someone who lives in Arizona.  As far as I am concerned that is a much worse place to live then Texas!  ;D  Honestly, its a bit on the childish side but kind of funny.  If any of the Lakers made similar comments (like making fun of D'Antonio for a physical condition) they would be looked at as the devil.  Since it is PHX people just laugh.

The real question though is....if the Lakers are so horrible why did PHX go 7 games with them?
« Last Edit: April 20, 2007, 12:39:11 PM by westkoast »
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Offline Reality

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Re: Suns are going to win it all according to computer analysis
« Reply #4 on: April 20, 2007, 01:10:41 PM »
I don't think it really matters all that much...I mean it was written by someone who lives in Arizona. 
yes a study that exists can't possibly matter as much as one that doesn't. :D :D

Offline westkoast

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Re: Suns are going to win it all according to computer analysis
« Reply #5 on: April 20, 2007, 01:18:24 PM »
I don't think it really matters all that much...I mean it was written by someone who lives in Arizona. 
yes a study that exists can't possibly matter as much as one that doesn't. :D :D

Um...smart guy, what you posted is not a study.
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Offline Reality

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Re: Suns are going to win it all according to computer analysis
« Reply #6 on: April 20, 2007, 01:20:04 PM »
Um...smart guy, what you posted is not a study.
No, it was a book quote.
But lurkers was a study.
 :D :D hey westkaost msc and lurker, you made my day.

Offline westkoast

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Re: Suns are going to win it all according to computer analysis
« Reply #7 on: April 20, 2007, 01:26:48 PM »
Um...smart guy, what you posted is not a study.
No, it was a book quote.
But lurkers was a study.
 :D :D hey westkaost msc and lurker, you made my day.

Lurker didn't post in this thread....Our joke in another thread was clearly a joke.  The comments made in this book were not all jokes.

What you posted is still not a study, therefore "yes a study that exists can't possibly matter as much as one that doesn't." doesn't make any sense at all.  Check your juicer for mold spores.
« Last Edit: April 20, 2007, 01:29:30 PM by westkoast »
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Offline Reality

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Re: Suns are going to win it all according to computer analysis
« Reply #8 on: April 21, 2007, 12:51:45 PM »
Phillip and The Kobester respond:

Bryant arrived at practice with a scowl and was short-sentenced afterward with the media. When asked if he was surprised by the rhetoric from the Phoenix camp, he deferred.

"I'm not surprised or anything like that," he said. "I don't have any sentiment one way or another. I don't think anybody was really paying any particular attention to it."  Rrright Kobester.

http://www.latimes.com/sports/basketball/nba/lakers/la-sp-lakerep21apr21,1,5400717.story?page=1&coll=la-headlines-sports-nba-lakers

Last years series, contrary to the usual "Kobe scores 50 Lakers win", Phillip noted the Laker wins came in games in which the Kobester averaged only 23pts, and one win the Flames were up 10 pts 4th qtr at which point Kobe had 9 game pts.  Wow. 

Will be interesting to see if Phil uses same strategy of pounding it down to Kwame.