Most lotto balls does not = #1 pick.

[Reality]

Year -team w worst record - their pick order and player /team who got the #1 pick -their record - player chosen

1996 Vancouver 3rd pick Shareef Abdur-Rahim / Philly, second worst record -Iverson
1997 Vancouver 4th pick Antonio Daniels / San Antonio, third worst record-Duncan
1998 Denver 3rd pick Raef Lafrentz / Clippers, third worst record / Olowokandi
1999 Vancouver 2nd pick Steve Francis / Chcigo, third worst record / Elton Brand
2000 Clippers 3rd pick Darius Miles / New Jersey, 7th worst record / Kenyon Martin
2001 Chicago 4th pick Eddy Curry / Washington, 3rd worst record / Kwame Brown
2002 Chicago and Golden State 2nd, 3rd picks, Jason Williams, Mike Dunleavy / Houston, 5th worst record / Yao Ming
2003 Cleveland, Denver / 1st, 3rd picks, LeBron, Carmelo
2004 Orlando 1st pick, Dwight Howard
2005 Atlanta 2nd pick, Marvin Williams / Milwaukee, 6th worst record / Andrew Bogut
2006 Portland / 2nd pick, Ty Thomas / Toronto, 5th worst record / Andrea Bargnani
2007 Memphis 4th pick Mike Conoley Jr (traded for OJ?) Portland 6th worst record/Oden
2008 Miami 2nd pick Beasly  Chi 9th worst record/ Derrik Rose
2009 Sacramento _____ Clippers tie 2nd worst record _____
So, over the last 10 years, only Cleveland 2003 and Orlando 2004 were able to get the no. 1 overall pick with the worst record in the league. Seems like having the third worst record has been a little lucky.

Vancouver got screwed out of Allen Iverson, Tim Duncan, and Elton Brand.   
   
Toronto, Milwaukie, and New Jersey scored #1 from 5th 6th and 7th respectively.

[Reality]

^^^ while Jersey had the biggest leap going from 7th to #1 position, it was a lemon year draft and they settled for Kenyon Martin.

Houston scored Yao from 5th and the jury is still out but on how Toronto and Milwakee scored from 5th (Bargnani and Bogut). 

[ziggy]

Year -team w worst record - their pick order and player /team who got the #1 pick -their record - player chosen

1996 Vancouver 3rd pick Shareef Abdur-Rahim / Philly, second worst record -Iverson
1997 Vancouver 4th pick Antonio Daniels / San Antonio, third worst record-Duncan
1998 Denver 3rd pick Raef Lafrentz / Clippers, third worst record / Olowokandi
1999 Vancouver 2nd pick Steve Francis / Chcigo, third worst record / Elton Brand
2000 Clippers 3rd pick Darius Miles / New Jersey, 7th worst record / Kenyon Martin
2001 Chicago 4th pick Eddy Curry / Washington, 3rd worst record / Kwame Brown
2002 Chicago and Golden State 2nd, 3rd picks, Jason Williams, Mike Dunleavy / Houston, 5th worst record / Yao Ming
2003 Cleveland, Denver / 1st, 3rd picks, LeBron, Carmelo
2004 Orlando 1st pick, Dwight Howard
2005 Atlanta 2nd pick, Marvin Williams / Milwaukee, 6th worst record / Andrew Bogut
2006 Portland / 2nd pick, LaMarcus Aldridge / Toronto, 5th worst record / Andrea Bargnani

So, over the last 10 years, only Cleveland 2003 and Orlando 2004 were able to get the no. 1 overall pick with the worst record in the league. Seems like having the third worst record has been a little lucky.

Vancouver got screwed out of Allen Iverson, Tim Duncan, and Elton Brand.   
   
Toronto, Milwaukie, and New Jersey scored #1 from 5th 6th and 7th respectively.

Actually Portland had the 4th pick last year, took Ty Thomas, and traded him with Victor Khryapa for Aldridge.

[rickortreat]

Your record is proof positive that getting the most balls doesn't guarantee anything.  Which is actually the point of the lottery, any team's ball can get picked.

With that said, the odds are more in your favor the more balls you have.  The big difference is between the playoff teams and the ones who don't make it.  The ones out of the playoffs get many more opportunities for the big one.

The real key is the ability to project which players will be the real deal and which ones will be duds.  A lot of top first-round picks were failures, while those picked later on in the draft have turned out to be better players.

[Reality]

^^ Yeah while most lotto balls is almost always good for at least a higher pick, it sucks in the years that no surefire #1s exist.
By surefire i mean AI, Duncan, Yao.

This year i believe Oden is surefire.
Will he be Mo Malone Kareem Bob Parish Tim Duncan surefire?
Well who knows, but IMO no way he flames out short of injury.
I think he'll be perennial All Star.

[westkoast]

Your record is proof positive that getting the most balls doesn't guarantee anything.  Which is actually the point of the lottery, any team's ball can get picked.

With that said, the odds are more in your favor the more balls you have.  The big difference is between the playoff teams and the ones who don't make it.  The ones out of the playoffs get many more opportunities for the big one.

The real key is the ability to project which players will be the real deal and which ones will be duds.  A lot of top first-round picks were failures, while those picked later on in the draft have turned out to be better players.

Exactly.  Nothing is for certain in the lottery system but you obviously want a higher chance to get your ball pulled.

Ditto on the pick moreso then the spot.  I was just looking over that list and looking at how a number of those picks were wasted.  Rahim, Daniels, Lafrentz, Kandi, Kwame Brown...none of those guys should have been top 5 picks.

[Lurker]

Your record is proof positive that getting the most balls doesn't guarantee anything.  Which is actually the point of the lottery, any team's ball can get picked.

With that said, the odds are more in your favor the more balls you have.  The big difference is between the playoff teams and the ones who don't make it.  The ones out of the playoffs get many more opportunities for the big one.

The real key is the ability to project which players will be the real deal and which ones will be duds.  A lot of top first-round picks were failures, while those picked later on in the draft have turned out to be better players.

Exactly.  Nothing is for certain in the lottery system but you obviously want a higher chance to get your ball pulled.

Ditto on the pick moreso then the spot.  I was just looking over that list and looking at how a number of those picks were wasted.  Rahim, Daniels, Lafrentz, Kandi, Kwame Brown...none of those guys should have been top 5 picks.

Sometimes you have to look at those players in relation to who else was available those years.  And hindsight is almost always perfect.  Some organizations are just better at finding hidden talent with later picks than others...but most often it is just a crap shoot.

[westkoast]

Your record is proof positive that getting the most balls doesn't guarantee anything.  Which is actually the point of the lottery, any team's ball can get picked.

With that said, the odds are more in your favor the more balls you have.  The big difference is between the playoff teams and the ones who don't make it.  The ones out of the playoffs get many more opportunities for the big one.

The real key is the ability to project which players will be the real deal and which ones will be duds.  A lot of top first-round picks were failures, while those picked later on in the draft have turned out to be better players.

Exactly.  Nothing is for certain in the lottery system but you obviously want a higher chance to get your ball pulled.

Ditto on the pick moreso then the spot.  I was just looking over that list and looking at how a number of those picks were wasted.  Rahim, Daniels, Lafrentz, Kandi, Kwame Brown...none of those guys should have been top 5 picks.

Sometimes you have to look at those players in relation to who else was available those years.  And hindsight is almost always perfect.  Some organizations are just better at finding hidden talent with later picks than others...but most often it is just a crap shoot.

Good point.   It isn't really all that cut and dry like I seemed to make it.  Really luck does come into it sometimes.  You never can fully guess how well a player will adjust to the NBA from high school or college.

Although I will say that you should be able to pick out drive and determination some how.  I am not a scout so I have no clue what the process is but it seems like certain players have it and some do not.  Similar to, well just about any other job.  Makes you wonder how much they focus in on 'what they could be' as oppose to what they already have built into them.

[Reality]

Updating.  The trend continues, team with most lotto balls does not get the #1 pick:
2007
2008
2009


(Portland with one of the "best" records (6th worst) to get the #1 overall and chose Oden.)
Chi with the 9th worst record got Derrick Rose.  The all time record for best standing to get the #1 overall?