Lakers - better matchup at 6 or 7 seed?

[Lurker]

The seeding for the top of the west looks set.  Lakers & Nuggets seem to be battling for the 6/7 seeds.  To you Laker fans...would you rather meet Suns or Spurs in the first round?

[Laker Fan]

Slam dunk, we match up way better with Phoenix, they are more vulnerable than they look in the slower pace of the playoffs, besides, a little revenge would be nice! Second round we will struggle against everyone save maybe Utah.

[WayOutWest]

I'd rather see the Lakers face the Suns.  Neither of them play defense so the Lakers would have a shot.  Amare is an easier matchup than TD and the Lakers present matchup problems for the Suns  Not to mention the up and down pace of the game would be fun too watch instead of having 15 minute breaks everytime Manu goes down like a shooting victim. 

I doubt the Lakers get past the first round if they have to face any of the big three out west.

[westkoast]

I'd rather see the Lakers face the Suns.  Neither of them play defense so the Lakers would have a shot.  Amare is an easier matchup than TD and the Lakers present matchup problems for the Suns  Not to mention the up and down pace of the game would be fun too watch instead of having 15 minute breaks everytime Manu goes down like a shooting victim. 

I doubt the Lakers get past the first round if they have to face any of the big three out west.

I tend to agree with both LF and WOW's take.  IMO even though PHX is the better team wins wise I think it wouldn't be as big a long shot if they played the Spurs.  The Lakers do match up better with the Suns then Spurs.  Considering the Lakers can score against any team and the Suns don't play all that much D.

Amare has the potential to get himself into foul trouble as the only large body with any time of shot blocking/lane defending ability.  Duncan is too savvy on defense to get caught too many times.  Not to mention Duncan would have very little problems guarding Kwame or Bynum on most of the plays on that end.  Not quite sure if the same could be said about Amare.  If Amare hits the pine then the Suns are very vulnerable.  If Duncan hits the pine Fabs or Elson will take over the game in a major major MAJOR factor.

To me the Spurs are battle tested in the playoffs and everyone knows they can win a championship.  The Suns are not battle tested to the same degree and they have yet to prove they can win a championship, let alone multiple championships in a short span of time.

[rickortreat]

I'm coming at this from the other side, since AI is with Denver.  As I looked at the standings I saw that the Nuggets could catch the Lakers and swap seeds with them.

Given that the Nuggets just rocked the Suns, I would think they'd rather face them than the Spurs.

The problem is both the Spurs and the Suns are very good teams and it's not clear which one would present a better opportunity.

It seems you all would rather face the Suns, which makes sense considering how the Lakers played there last year.

Out West everyone is talking about Dallas and Phoenix, but the Spurs are right there with them.  All three are scary good, with a slight edge going to Dallas. 

It really doesn't matter who either team draws.  The good teams will last through to the next round, so they'll have to be faced anyway.

The Lakers are a playoff team, but seriously, no one gives them a shot to win it all, not this year.  Does it make that much of a difference if they get to the second round before being chased out?  Given who they're likely to be matched with I think they're one and done.

Denver on the other hand, is the wild card in the mix.  I think that neither the Suns or the Spurs want to see them in the opening round.  When AI and Mello are clicking like they are now, they are a very tough team to stop.  I think that with Nene and Camby, they're better suited to face SA than LA is. 

I'd actually enjoy a Denver/SA series, but don't really care either way. 

[westkoast]

"The Lakers are a playoff team, but seriously, no one gives them a shot to win it all, not this year.  Does it make that much of a difference if they get to the second round before being chased out?  Given who they're likely to be matched with I think they're one and done."

I agree with this also.  They are a playoff team but  they don't have a shot to win it all this year.  Maybe if they continued the play they had at the begging of the season until now, ya.  However they have really played too inconsistent to be anything but a one and done in the WC playoffs.

Given who they are matched up with matters though.  They can wear out certain teams more then others.  I don't see the Lakers giving Dallas a run for it's money at all but I do see them making PHX battle like they did last year.

[Lurker]

IMO the Lakers best chance of going to the second round is against the Suns.  I also say the same about Denver.  The Nuggets play to outscore their opponents (as opposed to playing some defense)...and the only top team that plays that style is Phoenix.  I even think that the Jazz & Rockets could take out the Nuggets.

The biggest wildcard in the west is the Rockets.  This team has strong defense, a solid inside/outside game and role players that know their roles.  Biggest weakness is health...Yao & TMac have to be at their best.

[westkoast]

IMO the Lakers best chance of going to the second round is against the Suns.  I also say the same about Denver.  The Nuggets play to outscore their opponents (as opposed to playing some defense)...and the only top team that plays that style is Phoenix.  I even think that the Jazz & Rockets could take out the Nuggets.

The biggest wildcard in the west is the Rockets.  This team has strong defense, a solid inside/outside game and role players that know their roles.  Biggest weakness is health...Yao & TMac have to be at their best.

Houston's defense def makes them the wild card.  While some would say it is boring to watch them play, the strength of their defense kind of seperates them from the 5 on down seeds.

If Yao only had more stamina and was more of a presence inside they really could be a serious contender.  I guess first thing is first tho...stay healthy.

[Reality]

Are you Laker-Spur Spur-Laker posters gonna hook up and watch a game if they play?

[Reality]

msc, with that Kobe guy saving them from sub .500 and breaking the losing streak what are tickets scalping for at Staples these days?

[msc]

I've been thinking about this a lot recently for obvious reasons, nice thread Lurker.  

Obviously the Lakers chances of beating either of these teams is somewhere between slim and none.  That said, I think I'd rather the Lakers match up with the Spurs this year.  I think Phoenix is a much better, more balanced team this season with the way Amare has fit in to the system.  It definitely adds another dimension to their team on both sides of the court that wasn't there last season when the Lakers gave them a scare in the first round.  

As far as the Spurs, they're a super talented team with a ton of experience, but match-up wise, I like Kwame's chances of man'ing up on TD and giving him some fits.  Not saying Kwame will shut him down, but Kwames one strength (if he has one) is his man on man D in the post.  Second, if the Laker D can get physical with TP, he can get rattled.  We've seen it in the past.  Of course, we've also seen him scorch us in the past, but the Lakers chances of slowing down TP are greater than being able to slow down Nash, IMO.  Assuming these stars align, the x-factor becomes Ginobili.  His athleticism and versatility on offense will give the Lakers fits.  If he's hitting his outside shots, forget about it.  But if the Lakers can catch him on a couple of off nights offensively, I think we have a chance.  

At the end of the day, I just feel that the Suns have too many weapons.  Everyone here is saying neither team plays D, so it's a good match up.  I can see that point; however, the Lakers have absolutely no chance of keeping up with the Suns offensively.  In a 7 game series, when the pace slows down a bit and it becomes a chess game of match ups, I think the Spurs have slightly less offensive weapons that pose major match up probs for the Lakers which is the ultimate reason I'd rather they match up in the first round.  

[msc]

msc, with that Kobe guy saving them from sub .500 and breaking the losing streak what are tickets scalping for at Staples these days?

I'm not sure the prices they're going for, but there is quite a bit of scalping activity at every game.  I can check it out on Sunday when I'm down there if you want.

[Reality]

Yeah that would be great.  While i don't expct you to do this on my behalf, I wonder what the scalpoids charge 5 minutes into the game.
Of course that varies from game to game, but still i wonder how much it goes down 5 minutes or even 1 quarter into the game. 
Or have all those cochroaches scattered by then?

I'd love to get scalped Spurs-Lakers playoff tickets 5 minutes into the game, but those (even if available) would probably stay sky high, right?  Only way they would come down at Staples is if the Spurs were romping up 3 games to 1 and scalpoilds were looking to unload?

I agree with you that a fully healthy Laker team and frontline could bother TD, especially if CementHead-o-vich tries to play Fabs instead of Elson.  Don't expect any of you to watch Spurs highlights, but if you saw Elsons 3/4 court dribble with the ball at full speed left handed with a Pacer right on him and dunking last night, WOW!
espn might still have it
http://scores.espn.go.com/nba/scoreboard?date=20070321

[msc]

^^^Reality, ya I can check on Sunday, but it's kind of moot as the playoff tix are a whole different product.  I'm not sure where you're looking to sit, but I can tell you what the face value is on just about every seat in there so you have a reference.  Also, you might want to try stubhub, ebay and Craigslist.  I'm not advocating those sites in any way, but you will at least be able to gauge what tix are trading at for specific games. 

[westkoast]

At the end of the day, I just feel that the Suns have too many weapons.  Everyone here is saying neither team plays D, so it's a good match up.  I can see that point; however, the Lakers have absolutely no chance of keeping up with the Suns offensively.  In a 7 game series, when the pace slows down a bit and it becomes a chess game of match ups, I think the Spurs have slightly less offensive weapons that pose major match up probs for the Lakers which is the ultimate reason I'd rather they match up in the first round. 

I'll disagree here, hear me out....

I think the Spurs have just as many weapons but are not  a fast paced team.  If they ran more then they could score alot of points also.  Maybe not the same amount as PHX does night in and night out but I bet they would be pushing 100 if it was faster paced.  However, the plan is to go to Duncan often and get higher % shots while letting the defense keep the other team from scoring.  That plan has worked pretty darn well for the past 7-8 seasons.  I say don't fix what is not broken.  They are a more consistant team in the long run playing that way, that has been proven.

The reason I personally mentioned that neither team plays defense is that the Lakers may not be able to keep up scoring with PHX each game but  Kobe can score better then anyone in this league.  If you don't force him into tough shots he will torch your team.  If you can't stop him then you must stop his other teammates.  Last year PHX had trouble with that and they almost were eliminated in the first round by a lesser team.  The Spurs can make Kobe work for his shots and with Duncan in the middle he cannot get to the rim as easy.  He will not be stopped but you have to slow him down just enough.   They can almost get away with not doubling him as much as other teams in the league because of the strength of their team defense.  That makes sure the Odom, Walton, Smush Parkers of the team do not have easy shots themselves.  Less penetration, less open shots for guys who really need space.  Odom, Walton, and Smush this year are average from outside.  Where they do alot of damage is in the paint.  Odom pushing the ball for layups/easy dishes.  Walton posting guys up on the block for jump hooks, easy layups.  Smush penetrating and throwing down dunks or kissing it off the glass.  When it comes to jumpers they need space most of the time.  I just don't see Bynum or Kwame creating that space with Duncan if Kobe cannot.  With Amare, I think it is possible for them to do so.  He is a very talented player but the post defense is something he needs to work on (and I am sure he will).

As for Nash, you are right the Lakers have no shot at guarding him.  Really no one does.  The best defense (if you want to call it defense) is to not to focus in on keeping him from scoring.  You want to make him score rather then dish the ball.  Awesome shooter or not I rather see him take 3s and make runners then I want to see Stoudamire, Marion, etc get dunks/layups.

To me, people are sleeping on the Spurs big time.  Almost as if they are sitting in the 6th 7th seed with the other pack of teams.  They've been pretty good the last 25 games or so.  They have one of the greatest coaches of all time, they are battled tested, and they are a very talented team.