zig, statistical questions:
1. When MLB teams limp thru the end of the regular season, how often do they then smoke thru the playoffs ala Detroit so far. I know in the NBA it is a myth that finishing strong is a must for title.
2. When teams sweep ala Det over the Skunkies (near sweep 3-1) and Oakland while the other League is extended till the World Series, how often does much rest = win or loss? Fox flashed a stat last night but I didn't catch it. Bottom line one of the talking heads said previous long resters did not hurt the long resters in the Series at all.
I don't have any statistical data, and I am not sure where to go to get it. I would say though that if they have data that says anything less than 75% of the teams one way or the other, it means that there is no real correlation. 50/50 means no correlation, so it would have to be a very high or very low number to mean anything.
In the case of Detroit, I think it comes down to a couple of things. First is the young pitchers they had were a little tired down the stretch, and all it takes is for 2 of your 5 starters to hit a rough patch to start a slump. Assume 2 of your 5 are in a slump, then just to win 40% of your games you other 3 have to 2-1. In 3 trips through your rotation, assume you number 1 starter goes 2-1, you number 2 goes 2-1, your number 3 goes 1-2, and your 4th and 5th go 0-3. That means you just went 5-10, and if the Twins happened to be hot they could have easily gone 10-5, or 11-4. Your 10 game lead just dropped to 3. It doesn't take much.
The other issue for the Tigers was the loss of Placido Polanco and then his return. Polanco is the key to that lineup, and there is a huge difference between him and Omar Infante and Neffi Perez, HUGE. Once he came back his contribution was overwhelming. The point, the Tigers of September are a different team than the Tigers of October.
As far as the next series, number of days off for your starters is very important, but it can be equally bad if you go 10 days between starts. Ideally Detroit would like to go Rogers, Bonderman, Verlander, Robertson in that order, maybe switching Verlander and Bonderman, so you have Bonderman pitching game 7 if you need. At the same time that rotation is far better than either St. Louis or the Mets. Nate Robertson vs Perez or Reyes is a huge edge for the Tigers. Only Glavine and Carpenter are equal to or better than the Tigers top 3. Verlander vs Maine or Weaver is a decided edge to the Tigers, though Weaver has pitched much better as of late, and is closing that gap, I would still take Verlander. Bonderman vs Suppan or Trachsel is a huge edge for the Tigers. That leaves Rogers vs Glavine or Carpenter. Right now Rogers/Glavine is a push, while Carpenter has the edge over Rogers.
The Tigers can set up their rotation just how they want, and the Cards and Mets, can make a tweak or 2, but that is about it. Best case for the Cards is Carpenter can pitch 2-6, probably 3-7. If it is Carpenter in Game 3 of the WS vs Bonderman, that is the worst situation for the Cards, because they must get 2 wins from him, and he will go against Bonderman twice.
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