Did Shaq suck this year??

[Skandery]

Alright whose ready for some true number crunching??  The debate at hand seems to be whether Shaq's performance this year was better, comparable, or much worst than the recent past.  For argument's sake, let's define recent past as starting from his MVP year.

These are Shaq's points per minute from the 99-00 to the present.

99-00:  .742
00-01:  .726
01-02:  .751
02-03:  .727
03-04:  .584
04-05:  .672

Seems that Shaq dropped off significantly last year and while this year was better, it wasn't where it had been before 2003 season started.  Stick around, the plot does thicken with this scoring issue.  

These are Shaq's rebounds per minute from the 99-00 to the present.

99-00:  .342
00-01:  .322
01-02:  .296
02-03:  .294
03-04:  .312
04-05:  .305

Aside from his MVP season, the numbers are pretty much hovering around .300 rebounds per minute give or take.

Let's revisit the .672 points per minute Shaq had this year.  Is it really low or can we find an explanation for it.  Let's look at Shaq's field goal attempts.  The average FGA (field goals attempted) from the 99-00 to the 03-04 seasons is 18.2.  His FGA this season was 15.0.  The difference is 3.2 attempts.  Let's multiply that difference by Shaq's career FG% of .579 to see about how many of those added attempts he would have made.  We get 1.85, let's now multiply by two points because I don't think he's a good three point shooter. B)  We get 3.70, which when we add to his 22.9 ppg average this season is about 26.6 ppg.  His average ppg from 99-00 to 03-04 is 26.9 ppg, a .3 point per game difference.  Not much!  Expecially when you consider that Shaq shot a career record 60.1% this year in Miami, far above his career average.  

What does all this damn math tell us boys and girls??  That Shaq had fewer minutes per game which caused fewer attempts per game and thus fewer points per game.  The debate about whether Shaq's performance was better or worst this season can be laid to rest.  Now the debate about whether Shaq received fewer minutes because he's old, out of shape, etc. can rage on.  Personally, if I had Shaq on my team and he was 33 years old.  I'd be very careful not to overuse him risking injury and just plain wearing his body out faster than it has to be.  

[westkoast]

He played about 2-3  minutes less per game this year than the previous 3 years.  2 minutes is a lifetime in basketball but you can bend stats around to fit any argument (not saying yours is not valid) he may or may not have attempted more shots, he may or may not have grabbed more rebounds, and he may or may not have passed more.  Things you dont see in stats like stopping penetration and altering shots is something we do not see.  He was not as active consistantly thru out the year in that department.

He also had three Shaq-like games this season.   I am still looking for a game by game stat sheet for the previous years.  I can guarentee it was alot more the previous 3 years per year.

Shaq's injury in 2002 was his big toe he had surgery on that was bothering him all year.  Something he got surgery for the following year later than he should having him miss games and his conditioning time (LOL).   Now he played 3 or so more minutes that year however he was injured and was able to still post better numbers.  This is something you cannot factor in but does effect his performance.

He also played 6 more regular season games this year than he has the previous 3 years.  The most games he has played since 00-01.  Shaq missed 15 games each of the previous 3 years.  Now how much would 6 games effect the stats and forumula's that you provided above? Or better yet the defenders and teams faced frequently. Lets factor these in also for a nice debate.

The debate wasnt did Shaq suck this year.  That isnt what I was saying (never once did I say he sucked this year) and we were not debating about that.  What we were debating about was if Shaq was better his previous years than he was this year.  Shaq was in better shape this year than he has been in forever so even tho he played 2-3 less minutes this year shouldnt he have done just as much as before?  He could operate better, didnt have his foot injury (although did have minor bumps and bruises), and played against more guard-ran teams back east.

[Derek Bodner]

"I am still looking for a game by game stat sheet for the previous years"

http://www.basketballreference.com/players...?ilkid=ONEASH01

[ziggy]

From basketballreference.com

Approximate Value which was developed by Dean Oliver. You can read more about this formula and more at this website: http://www.powerbasketball.com/theywin2.html

Here is a quick synopsis of AV values
Credits= PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-FG MISSED-FT MISSED-TO
AV= Credits^(3/4)/21

The plan for the method was to end up with a scale of integers between 0 and about 20 rating players, with 10 representing an 'average' player. It was to be based upon several standards a player was to meet in order to gain points of approximate value. The whole thing was modeled on Bill James' Value Approximation method for baseball. As James did, I assigned verbal descriptions to ranges of scores in order to see if the method produced results that matched general descriptions of players. Those descriptions are as follows:

A score of about twenty indicates an exceptional MVP season.
A score of seventeen or eighteen indicates a strong MVP candidate or an ordinary MVP season.
A score of sixteen indicates an MVP candidate.
A score of fifteen indicates a definite All-Star who is a marginal MVP candidate.
A score of fourteen indicates a probable All-Star.
A score of thirteen indicates a marginal All-Star.
A score of twelve indicates a very fine season; an All-Star candidate.
A score of eleven indicates an above average regular; an excellent player playing about 1800 minutes.
A score of ten indicates an average regular or a very good sixth man.
A score of nine indicates an average regular or a good sixth man.
A score of eight indicates a fair regular or an average sixth man.
A score of six or seven indicates an average bench player or a good player playing under 1500 minutes.
A score of four or five indicates a player who plays about 1000 minutes and who doesn't deserve many more.
Scores of three or less usually indicate players who are unimpressive in limited playing time.


Shaq's AV for each year has been
1992-93 16.0  MVP Candidate  (Shaq played about 3100 minutes)
1993-94 17.9  MVP season  (3200 minutes)
1994-95 16.4  MVP Candidate  (2900 minutes)
1995-96 11.3  an excellent player playing about 1800 minutes (1946 minutes)
1996-97 11.4  an excellent player playing about 1800 minutes (1941 minutes)
1997-98 12.8  a marginal All-Star (2175 minutes)
1998-99 10.4  average regular or a very good sixth man (1705 minutes)
1999-00 17.7  MVP season  (3200 minutes)
2000-01 15.8  MVP Candidate  (2900 minutes)
2001-02 13.7  a probable All-Star (2400 minutes)
2002-03 14.2  a probable All-Star  (2500 minutes)
2003-04 12.4  an All-Star candidate  (2464 minutes)
2004-05 13.1  a marginal All-Star (2500 minutes)

For his career Shaq has missed 16% of his games or 13+ games per year.  If he played 82 games per year he would play 3100 minutes, for his career he has averaged 2580.


A second stat is Efficency rate.  Efficiency is a new stat the NBA developed in 2002. It is calculated using the following formula: ((pts + reb + stls + asts + blk) - ((fga - fgm) + (fta - ftm) + to))/g
Since Efficiency is calculated on a per game basis, it is good at seeing how well a particular player has performed, regardless of the number of games that the player has played during that season.
 
1992-93  28.90
1993-94  33.48
1994-95  30.72
1995-96  27.33
1996-97  29.33
1997-98  28.85
1998-99  26.94
1999-00  33.82
2000-01  30.99
2001-02  28.48
2002-03  29.85
2003-04  24.93
2004-05  24.44


Another stat is Rebound rate.  Rebound Rate is an excellent stat for measuring the rebounding ability of a player. It simply measures the percentage of missed shots a player rebounded while he was on the floor.

For Shaq

1992-93  20.6%
1993-94  18.8%
1994-95  17.6%
1995-96  17.8%
1996-97  18.7%
1997-98  17.7%
1998-99  18.0%
1999-00  18.3%
2000-01  18.1%
2001-02  16.4%
2002-03  16.4%
2003-04  17.7%
2004-05  17.7%

[ziggy]

"I am still looking for a game by game stat sheet for the previous years"


[url=http://www.basketballreference.com/players...?ilkid=ONEASH01]http://www.basketballreference.com/players...?ilkid=ONEASH01[/URL]

Go to the far right for each season and you will see LOG in blue, which will take you to a page that shows the game by game log for each season.

[rickortreat]

Less imporatant than Shaq's individual stats are Miami's team stats in terms of winning, IMO.

Based on that, he had a great year this year, even if he didn't have to step up as much for his team.

It was smart for the Heat to limit his minutes, so he could be at his best during the playoffs.  Thanks to the injury it didn't work out too well but it was what it was.

IMO, the Heat lost the series because of Wade's injury.  Next year, they will be favored to take the East again, in large part because of Shaq.  

[Derek Bodner]

"I am still looking for a game by game stat sheet for the previous years"


[URL=http://www.basketballreference.com/players...?ilkid=ONEASH01]http://www.basketballreference.com/players...?ilkid=ONEASH01[/URL]

Go to the far right for each season and you will see LOG in blue, which will take you to a page that shows the game by game log for each season.

Yeah.  I was actually impressed.  Recently (within the last month or two), they only had the last 3-4 years.  Now they go way back (91-92)

[westkoast]

"I am still looking for a game by game stat sheet for the previous years"

http://www.basketballreference.com/players...?ilkid=ONEASH01

Thanx for that DB!

Like I thought Shaq had 10x as many Shaq-like games 2 years ago than he did this year.  Comming from just looking strickly at Shaq he was better and more dominant then.   We also know Shaq plays much better defense when he is in the grove and scoring alot.

RT is right based on what the Heat did he had a good year but the debate this thread was started over was "Was Shaq a better player this year than the last 3 years as a Laker"

btw, not conditioning your body well in the off season for 3 or so years then going balls out in one summer IS going to wear your body out.  Especially when you are hitting your mid 30s, take the abuse Shaq does, and have the size he does.  Great thread even tho I feel it was in spite of my comments in another thread.

[Joe Vancil]

My question with regards to Shaq is a simple one, but one not easily answered:  is Shaq a 22.9-10.4 player, or is he a 29.7-13.6 player giving 22.9-10.4 effort?

The problem is that we know Shaq is notoriously lazy during the regular season and doesn't take care of himself in the off-season.  Change those two things, and I'm reasonably sure that Shaq would still be a Laker.  But his work ethic for the Lakers was so far beneath "sub-par" that they couldn't justify the risk of keeping him around at a high price with him very likely to break down due to his own neglect.

Personally, I think Shaq is still a lot closer to the 29.7-13.6 player than people think, but he's just too used to giving 22.9-10.4 effort - especially if there's a nagging little pain for him to play through.

I've noticed a lot of change in my own basketball game as I've gotten older and those nagging little pains get more pronounced.  And in terms of watching my weight and conditioning, I've done a worse job than Shaq.  I don't dive for balls any more.  I don't make hard V-cuts.  I'm slower, and play slower.  And if the knee starts aching, I don't run nearly as hard.  No, I can't do what I used to be able to do, but I can do more than I typically do.  So why don't I?  Because I'm looking at playing all day - not for a game or two - and so I work to save energy.  What's wrong with that?  According to Skander, used to, I'd burn through all my energy quickly, but I could play tired and not lose too much.  Now, it's just harder to play tired.

The reason I say this is because I well understand that although some physical skills will have deteriorated for me, my biggest problem is conditioning.  And I think it's the same thing with Shaq.  And even if he does get into condition, he then still has to unlearn all the bad behaviors he's learned while playing out-of-shape.  If I were to drop 40 pounds today, and go out to play, I might be faster, and I might be able to go longer, but it's going to take a while before I realize that I can make those V-cuts and dive for loose balls without the same detrimental impact.

So even though Shaq came in in better shape this year, I think he still has some bad habits to unlearn, and I don't feel that he adequately did that this year.  This is where having a Pat Riley as a coach, with his brutal practices, would have been beneficial.

 

[ziggy]

There is no doubt that Shaq is nowhere near the player he was 3 to 4 years ago.  Upwards of 90% of all players have their best years at 27-28-29 the only notable exception to that was Olajuwan.  The three title years in LA were when Shaq was 27-28-29.  His performance the last 2 years is 20% below his performance of when he was 27-30.  It will drop a little more next year.  Next year Shaq will be no better than a 22-10 player, and probably even less than that.
He has missed 16% of his games for his career, so I would expect him to miss nearly 20% of his games next year.  So not only will his per game averages drop, but he will play fewer games.  All that combined will make Shaq nothing more than a borderline all-star.

None of this precludes the Heat from winning a title the next 2 years, with Shaq as their center.  Wade will be 24 and 25, so he will be improving.  If they can add one more solid scorer, then they are clearly in the drivers seat.

[Skandery]

My question with regards to Shaq is a simple one, but one not easily answered: is Shaq a 22.9-10.4 player, or is he a 29.7-13.6 player giving 22.9-10.4 effort?

This is what this thread is trying to answer.  But like so many things in life the answer isn't a clear "Yes he is a 29.7-13.6 player giving 22.9-10.4 effort" or "Yes he is just a 22.9-10.4 player right now".  I personally don't think the question the way its phrased is valid.  Since you've seemed to box Shaq's situation into only two very different, very unlikely scenarios.  Do I think Shaq can go 29.7 and 13.6? Honestly, No!!  Even if he wanted to!!  

The same reason David Robinson couldn't go 29.8-10.7 (his averages in 93-94) in 2003 even if he really wanted to.  He performed at 8.5-7.9 that year.  Now it would be wrong of me to sit here and say David Robinson in the 02-03 season was a 29.8-10.7 player who gave 8.5-7.9 effort.  He slacked off and used his various injuries as an excuse to put up mediocre numbers at best.  Obviously that's all horse hockey.  

The answer to your question lies somewhere in the middle.  Circumstances such as decreased playing time, age, chronic injuries, emergence of a rising star, etc.  all lead to lower and lower numbers as one's career progresses.  Like David Robinson who had decreased playing time, was old, was injured, and had the emerging Tim Duncan in the frontcourt.  As dominantly fierce as Shaq is, it happened to him too!!  His playing time was decreased, he got old, he's been injured, and has had to deal with the emergence of the all-great, all-wonderful Kobe Bryant and an exciting, future all-NBA player in Dwayne Wade.  And his numbers have been lower because of it.  If anything shouldn't his numbers have been decreasing at a faster rate than this since he's such a notoriously lazy player who always gets out of shape in the off-season on top of all the aforementioned circumstances.

On the subject of whether Shaq could have given the Lakers more effort?  Yes!  Now show me a player who couldn't.  And if Shaq showed less effort than expected from a max contract player, in retrospect I guess he was as loyal as the organization was to him at the end of the story.  

But the Laker's made the right move, after all Shaq is old and out of shape and Kobe still has a long illustrious career ahead of him, right? :nod:      

       

[Joe Vancil]

Skander,
      I'm not arguing that one or the other is the absolute case, but I'm arguing that one or the other is closer to the truth.

      My belief is that Shaq is closer to a 29.7/13.6 player giving 22.9/10.4 effort.  Part of that is because I believe that in his 29.7/13.6 season, he was actually a 32/15 guy giving 29.7/13.6 effort.

     I don't doubt that Shaq has slowed down.  But if we're asking what he's capable of, I believe he's capable of more than he's putting up.  I think it's an effort question - just like it has been with Shaq for almost all of his career.  He's not a 29.7/13.6 player, but I believe he's at least a 25/12 player.

     Most of Shaq's limitations that I see are on the defensive side of the ball.  That's the side that deteriorates more easily because on that side, physical attributes come into play more.  Being smart and knowing where to go only gets you so far when you don't have the ability to get there anymore.  On the offensive side of the ball, a hook from 2 feet is a hook from 2 feet, and it doesn't require as much effort to get there when you outweigh your opponent by 40-80 pounds as it does to cover the guard on a pick-and-roll.  So I feel his scoring drop is a bit of an illusion.  It's his rebounding numbers that will drop quicker - in my opinion - when he starts falling off.

     I think most of Shaq's drop off is in conditioning and learning to play the lazy man's game.  The problem is that the more accustomed he becomes to playing at that level, the less likely he's going to be able to switch to high gear when he tries to.

 

[westkoast]

But the Laker's made the right move, after all Shaq is old and out of shape and Kobe still has a long illustrious career ahead of him, right? :nod:

Considering he wants a 100 million dollar extension and more likely than not need surgery in this off season I would say yes.  Whether you like Kobe or not he is going to continue to be a top guard in this league for years and years.  Can the same be said for Shaq?  No it cant.

If Shaq couldnt get it done with Wade this year how well would he have done with no talented outside player on the Lakers?  Would have 100% of the focus with no pressure reliver and would have played at least 5 more minutes per game.  You are letting your bias cloud your outlook on the situation.

[Joe Vancil]

westkoast,

So, you're telling me that if the Lakers had committed to Shaq and Kobe decided to bolt, he'd have done it for less money than the Lakers could offer?  

I don't believe it for a second.  Kobe would make sure he took every available dollar on the table.  He'd have forced a sign-and-trade to pick up that extra 1 year and 3%.

So let's say he bolts for the Clippers.  He takes the Lakers money, and forces a sign-and-trade.  So you end up with Shaq, Maggette, and Jaric instead of Shaq and Kobe.  That could then easily translate into Shaq, Malone, Maggette, Jaric, and Payton.  That ain't bad.

When dealing with someone who is egotistical, point out that he's making less than (fill-in-the-blank) if he takes the Clippers offer, and the guy will want to do the sign-and-trade option...if he wants to leave.  And he may not want to leave.

Someone should have tried playing hardball with Kobe Bryant - for a change.

 

[westkoast]

westkoast,

So, you're telling me that if the Lakers had committed to Shaq and Kobe decided to bolt, he'd have done it for less money than the Lakers could offer? 

I don't believe it for a second.  Kobe would make sure he took every available dollar on the table.  He'd have forced a sign-and-trade to pick up that extra 1 year and 3%.

So let's say he bolts for the Clippers.  He takes the Lakers money, and forces a sign-and-trade.  So you end up with Shaq, Maggette, and Jaric instead of Shaq and Kobe.  That could then easily translate into Shaq, Malone, Maggette, Jaric, and Payton.  That ain't bad.

When dealing with someone who is egotistical, point out that he's making less than (fill-in-the-blank) if he takes the Clippers offer, and the guy will want to do the sign-and-trade option...if he wants to leave.  And he may not want to leave.

Someone should have tried playing hardball with Kobe Bryant - for a change.

What im saying is the Lakers woukd have been forced to pay Shaq that kind of money even though his play was on the decline.  He would have been making over 30 million the next 3 years and in 2 years he would be at age 34-35.  That wouldnt have put the Lakers in a good situation at all.  That would, in three years, leave the Lakers with no star player.  No Shaq, no Kobe.

LA fans want rings.  Thats the kind of fickle fans we have out here.  Its all or nothing.  Now Shaq with no outside player as good as Wade or Kobe is going to have a hell of a time.  Take it from a Laker fan who watched him in LA when he was the only guy.  When Shaq has been most successfull its with a talented outside player who can pitch in, make just a tiny bit of space for him so not everyone is hanging around him, and can break down the defense.

Payton was already being moved before any of this so he wouldnt have returned anyways.  Karl would have but half way thru the year.

Shaq got in shape this year in spite of the Lakers decision to ditch him for another ego maniac.  If he stayed his ego wouldnt have been bruised and he more likely than not would have got into much better shape.