Author Topic: Is Peja a top 10 player?  (Read 7638 times)

Offline WayOutWest

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Is Peja a top 10 player?
« on: February 19, 2004, 01:24:19 PM »
IMO, No.  

The guys on my list play both sides of the ball well.  The exceptions being Dirk, AI and T-Mac.  AI tires but his size hurts him, still he's always at the stop of the steals list.  T-Mac just doesn't try but if he did he'd be a very good defender with his combo of size and quickness.  Dirk is an excellent rebounder but not much of a defender so I can see people making a case for Peja but IMO he's not as versitile on offense to put him ahead of Dirk on onto the top 10 list.

If Shaq plays like he played last night for the remainder of the season he will be catapulted to #1.

Anyway, is Peja better than one of these?

1.) KG - Best player in the NBA 3 years running. Most skilled and versitile player I've ever seen.
2.) TD - Most effective player in the league 4 years running, very Kareem-like in his game, mannerisms and effectiveness.
3.) Shaq - Most dominant player in the league 5 years running, has had a major drop off the last two years otherwise he'd easily be #1.
MAJOR DROP OFF to #4
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4.) JO - Plays both sides of the court. Excellent in every aspect of a big-mans game. Needs to mature a bit before he reaches the next level. His head is not always in the game when things don't go his way.
5.) Kidd - Has more of an impact on his teamates than any other player in the league. The Nets have a horrid roster offensively but when Kidd is on they look terrific. Just as good defensively as he is offensively, too bad he can't develop a reliable outside shot.
6.) Dirk - Becomming nearly impossible to guard, once his inside game developes or is utilized more often he will join the top 3 in terms of unguardable. Solid rebounder but needs to get tougher mentally, you can see signs that he's getting there but he needs to be more consistent.
7.) Yao - Already the 2nd best center in the league. There is no weakness in his game. Still needs to develop the mental aspects of the game, i.e. toughness, reading doubles, playing with fouls and banging for position.
8.) Kobe - He's really #4 or #5 but his inconsistency and brain farts this year have dropped him down. Easily the most competive player in the league, only KG and Artest match his intenisity night in and night out. Plays both sides of the ball well and he's the most "clutch" player in the game today.
9.) T-Mac - All the pluses of Kobe with more size and athletic ability. My only issue with him is his weak mental approach to the game. If he was as mentally tough as Kobe he'd be a much better player than Kobe. T-Mac doesn't like to do much but score, doesn't play much D to begin with and when teams double/triple team him he just give up. Big wuss IMO.
10.) AI - Amazing player for his size. Gives it his all on the court, too bad he doesn't in practice. Very tough, gets to the line as much as anybody and really tries on defense, usually in the top 3 in steals, but his size hurts him defensively.
 
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Offline Randy

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Is Peja a top 10 player?
« Reply #1 on: February 19, 2004, 01:40:04 PM »
One problem with your assessment, WOW.  

Quote
8.) Kobe - He's really #4 or #5 but his inconsistency and brain farts this year have dropped him down. Easily the most competive player in the league, only KG and Artest match his intenisity night in and night out. Plays both sides of the ball well and he's the most "clutch" player in the game today.

I don't disagree with you on this one but when you state that you are ONLY looking at this year than I question whether TMac or AI are better players than Peja.  Peja is not only the best shooter in the NBA (sorry Lenard) shooting .482 from the field and .429 and doing that as the player that most teams are going to focus their defense around.  He is also a very good rebounder (ave. 6.2 per game) on a team that has some good rebounders already (Miller and to a lesser degree Vlade).  

AI will always be there at the top in steals but look at his fg% (.396) and his 3 point shooting is atrocious (.291).  His assists are up this year (6.5) and this stat is quite impressive as is his steal ration (2.4) but his TO's are horrible (4.4) and his rebounding is less than 4 a game -- also Peja is averaging almost 1.4 steals a game and his TO's are only 2 a game.  

Also, as for TMac -- the guy has played some great offensive games but I haven't seen a great defensive effort yet (although I haven't seen a ton of their games).  TMac, I think, has the ability to be a great defensive player but like his cousin simply doesn't apply himself -- and he certainly hasn't worked hard in that area this year.  Peja is having the best year of his career and, IMO, has had a better year than AI or TMac.  Add to that what he has done for his team -- leading them to be winners and I would say that makes him better than TMac and/or AI this year.  As leaders on their teams, TMac and AI leave a LOT to be desired.

Offline WayOutWest

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Is Peja a top 10 player?
« Reply #2 on: February 19, 2004, 01:47:19 PM »
I disagree because Peja is a one-demensional player and in that regard he's even one deminsional in his one demension.  He's mostly a spot up shooter, although he's greatly improved his ability to get his shot off, still, players like Bowen practically shut him down.  Nobody is going to shutdown T-Mac, Kobe or Iverson.

IMO Peja lacks versatility big time.
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Offline Laker Fan

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Is Peja a top 10 player?
« Reply #3 on: February 19, 2004, 01:55:48 PM »
That's true WOW, but where he really shines is in Sacramento's motion offense, it allows him those spot-up opportunities he might not otherwise get, which is why his limited otverall game can really only flourish on a team like the Kings. He is afraid of the post game and he certainly doesn't offer much defensively but when you can break him free on the outside, I don't think there is ANYONE better in the league than Peja.
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Offline JoMal

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Is Peja a top 10 player?
« Reply #4 on: February 19, 2004, 03:39:14 PM »
Quote
1.) KG - Best player in the NBA 3 years running. Most skilled and versitile player I've ever seen.

KG is probably the most skilled player in the game today, but it is a pity you never saw Jerry West, Magic Johnson, Oscar Robinson, or Julius Erving play if he is the best player you have ever seen. Can he shoot better then Peja? - No.


Quote
2.) TD - Most effective player in the league 4 years running, very Kareem-like in his game, mannerisms and effectiveness.

Very effective power forward, but Kareem would win a straightup matchup with him. Can he shoot better then Peja? - No.

Quote
3.) Shaq - Most dominant player in the league 5 years running, has had a major drop off the last two years otherwise he'd easily be #1.

Shaq is a very effective player even when hurting, but comparing a true center to a true small forward is hardly fair to either. Could Shaq play Peja's position any better then Peja could play Shaq's? Hardly. The main reason? Can he shoot better then Peja? - No.

Quote
4.) JO - Plays both sides of the court. Excellent in every aspect of a big-mans game. Needs to mature a bit before he reaches the next level. His head is not always in the game when things don't go his way.

Definitely a player who is proving his worth at his position. Only problem?  Can he shoot better then Peja? - No.

Quote
5.) Kidd - Has more of an impact on his teamates than any other player in the league. The Nets have a horrid roster offensively but when Kidd is on they look terrific. Just as good defensively as he is offensively, too bad he can't develop a reliable outside shot.

If we were comparing point guards, he tops the list. In fact, he should be put in the elite category of players. His only weakness? Can he shoot better then Peja? - No.

6
Quote
.) Dirk - Becomming nearly impossible to guard, once his inside game developes or is utilized more often he will join the top 3 in terms of unguardable. Solid rebounder but needs to get tougher mentally, you can see signs that he's getting there but he needs to be more consistent.

His defense is not as good as Peja's (who out there is still ignoring how well Peja defends his man any longer?). And I certainly feel he can be a load on offense. But!  Can he shoot better then Peja? - Still, no.

Quote
7.) Yao - Already the 2nd best center in the league. There is no weakness in his game. Still needs to develop the mental aspects of the game, i.e. toughness, reading doubles, playing with fouls and banging for position.

At this point in his career, I would probably chose Yao to build my team around before Shaq, who seems to be in and out game after game as his career winds down. And when necessary he certainly can hit from outside. But, can he shoot better then Peja? - No.

Quote
8.) Kobe - He's really #4 or #5 but his inconsistency and brain farts this year have dropped him down. Easily the most competive player in the league, only KG and Artest match his intenisity night in and night out. Plays both sides of the ball well and he's the most "clutch" player in the game today.

Clutch, yes. Team player, oddly - no. Which is a problem except on the occasions when he ball-hogs and it wins games, so you tend to forget about it. He certainly wants to be the guy too, and few players are in the League you can truly say that about. But, can he shoot better then Peja? - No.

Quote
9.) T-Mac - All the pluses of Kobe with more size and athletic ability. My only issue with him is his weak mental approach to the game. If he was as mentally tough as Kobe he'd be a much better player than Kobe. T-Mac doesn't like to do much but score, doesn't play much D to begin with and when teams double/triple team him he just give up. Big wuss IMO.

I like T-Mac's overall game, but his failings are as you mentioned them. He can put his team at a disadvantage, but how dominant are his stats simply because no one else on the Magic can be trusted to make (or even try to make) plays? Plus - can he shoot better then Peja? - No.

Quote
10.) AI - Amazing player for his size. Gives it his all on the court, too bad he doesn't in practice. Very tough, gets to the line as much as anybody and really tries on defense, usually in the top 3 in steals, but his size hurts him defensively.

The quickest player in the League, and the most fearless. His aura can carry a team, but his play leads to injury and his effectiveness, IMO, has declined in the last several years because of it. He just does not seem to trust his teammates all that much. Plus - can he shoot better then Peja? - No.


My point of all this is, Peja plays on a team of shooters and passers. No one (except Christie, who brings other talents - and can shoot if necessary) is afraid to put up a clutch shot at any time from any where on the court. Yet they all would defer to Peja if they absolutely needed points. Why? Because none of them can shoot better then Peja.

He has been scoring easily from inside this year. As for his versatility, his steals are up this year, his rebounds are up, his assists are up, and he is leading the League in FT percentage. Plus, no one in the League can shoot better then him from outside. Can he be shut down by good defense, sure. But he is NOT the only offensive weapon on the Kings, so to do so means someone else will be padding their average and Peja would still be responsible helping his team out.

Is McGrady or Iverson the main focus for their teams' offensive? Well, the League's leading scorer is now McGrady, who takes 23.1 shots per game and makes 9.8 of them, Second is Iverson, who takes 24.1 shots to make 9.5. Third is Peja, who only takes 17.7 shots to make 8.5. That is still less shots then Duncan or Garnett take per game, though their shooting percentages are slightly better then Peja, in that they are shooting from inside almost exclusively.

Peja does not have to be open (NO TEAM leaves him open on the perimeter if they can help it) to make his shots. He rarely is. Peja is what you might call a "Sagger".
When the other team sees him get the ball for an open three pointer, you can visably see them as a unit sag their collective shoulders, knowing what is coming.

Should he be in the top ten in the League today? Maybe that is a question you should be asking his opponents who have to guard him -including Bowen and Fox, who both claim some success against him. And failures.
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Is Peja a top 10 player?
« Reply #5 on: February 19, 2004, 03:47:32 PM »
I was going to say yes, until I read your post.  I wouldn't put him ahead of any others you listed. I'm still not sold on JO though.  I wouldn't have him nearly as high.

Offline westkoast

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Is Peja a top 10 player?
« Reply #6 on: February 19, 2004, 04:03:12 PM »
No he isnt.  He cannot take over games like guys mentioned on your list.  He surely doesn't command a double team night in and night out and his defense is decent but not worth talking about.

JoMaL....Peja is a better jump shooter pct wise but Kobe is much much better at creating his own shot and creating around the rim.  Something that gets overlooked.  I also tottally disagree about him being 100% selfish.  You guys like to paint that picture and will bring up times when he scores alot of points.  Yet you fail to realize he was told to takeover games by the coaching staff on a number of occasions.  You cannot be labeled selfish when you are told by the coaches to do what he is doing.  Lets also not forget his number of assists over the past 3-4 years.
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Offline JoMal

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Is Peja a top 10 player?
« Reply #7 on: February 19, 2004, 04:09:23 PM »
So what, exactly, would it take to convince you? Maybe a scientific comparison system that uses a player-rating system based on various offensive and defensive statistics? Where players can increase their scores with every contribution they make to the game? Would something like that affect your opinion of Peja, if he ranked high on it?
« Last Edit: February 19, 2004, 04:09:46 PM by JoMal »
"We must not confuse dissent with disloyalty.....We will not be driven by fear into an age of unreason.....We are not descended from fearful men, not from men who feared to write, to speak, to associate and to defend causes that were for the moment unpopular....We cannot defend freedom abroad by deserting it at home."

Offline Randy

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Is Peja a top 10 player?
« Reply #8 on: February 19, 2004, 04:14:39 PM »
JoMal,

Just looking at this year, I would put Peja in front of TMac and perhaps AI -- but while Peja is the best shooter in the league, IMO, that doesn't mean that he is a top 10 player.  You overrate him defensively and offensively he is on a team that defenses have to respect (even Christie shoots decently outside (and he is the guy on the starting five you want to shoot).

I don't know why you kept comparing everyone to Peja's shooting ability or his position -- it was simply a top 10 list of current players -- and I think at this point he breaks in but he isn't as good as Kobe, etc.  Bottom line?  Ask SacTown if they would trade Peja for Kobe -- I bet they would in a heartbeat.  I don't think they would do that for TMac or AI.

Offline WayOutWest

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Is Peja a top 10 player?
« Reply #9 on: February 19, 2004, 04:21:28 PM »
1.) I didn't see Mr. Clutch of the Big-0 play alot, but IMO he's got more skills and is more versitile than Magic and Dr. J., for the simple reason of his defense.

2.) I would bet on Kareem as well but even "Cap" couldn't deal with McHale and IMO Duncan's post game is just as good as Kevins.  There is a big difference between "effectiveness" and "best".  Kareems post game being the most effective but KM and TD's post games being the best.

3.) The list is about top 10 players, not top ten at their position.  I wouldn't take Peja ahead of Shaq, nor would any GM.

4.) Better than Peja on both ends of the court.

5.) Plays both sides of the ball well, unlike Peja.

6.) Dirk is probably the most comperable player to Peja.  Excellent shooter, decent off the dribble but the Diggler is a better rebounder and a better post player, at least he posts more than Peja.  Their defense is nothing to post home about.

7.) Agreed, I'd probably take Yao ahead of Shaq at this point considering Shaq's age and poor conditioning, but I wouldn't say definately.

8.) No contest, even this year.  Kobe's more versatile on both ends, takes it to the rack alot better and gets to the line a bit more.

9.) Same pluses as Kobe but lacking the intensity and defensive effort, both things Peja lacks as well at this point.

10.)  Same as Kobe but physically can't D like him and his stupidity about "practice" really puts him in danger of dropping off the list if players like Lebron, AK-47 and Peja continue to develop.  Also if players like Webber, Carter and Brand can come back healthy I would take them over AI as well.

You illustrate my point, not sure if that was your intention, about Peja being too one-demensional to be top ten.  Peja is a great shooter, someday he may become a great scorer and decent defender as well but I don't see him over taking the players on my list.  While agree that Fox's effect on Peja has deminished greatly, Bowen and the Spurs still have Peja's number, I think he scores about 10-12 points below his average vs. the Spurs this year.  I havent' seen enough of the Kings this year to see the improvement you mentioned about his inside game, at 6'9 I've always considered him a match-up nightmare ala Dirk so I wouldn't be surprised if that were true.  I think Peja would do well on any team because he's become a great in-your-face shooter but IMO Ray Allen is still the best pure shooter in the game today.

I'm on a ton of pain medication so I may be completely missing your point.
 
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Offline Lurker

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Is Peja a top 10 player?
« Reply #10 on: February 19, 2004, 04:22:34 PM »
Quote
So what, exactly, would it take to convince you? Maybe a scientific comparison system that uses a player-rating system based on various offensive and defensive statistics? Where players can increase their scores with every contribution they make to the game? Would something like that affect your opinion of Peja, if he ranked high on it?
You mean a system like this:

        Player             Team MyTend          Player             Team Tend/48
  1) garnett,kevin         Min   33.30     1) garnett,kevin         Min  40.15
  2) duncan,tim            San   28.30     2) duncan,tim            San  35.50
  3) brand,elton           LAC   26.53     3) o'neal,shaquille      LAL  33.75
  4) mcgrady,tracy         Orl   25.89     4) brand,elton           LAC  32.71
  5) stojakovic,predr      Sac   25.06     5) kidd,jason            NJN  31.25
  6) o'neal,shaquille      LAL   24.84     6) mcgrady,tracy         Orl  31.18
  7) kidd,jason            NJN   24.50     7) stojakovic,predr      Sac  30.25
  8) miller,brad           Sac   23.94     8) miller,brad           Sac  29.97
  9) nowitzki,dirk         Dal   23.55     9) cassell,sam           Min  29.91
 10) marbury,stephon       nyk   23.08    10) nowitzki,dirk         Dal  29.38
 11) cassell,sam           Min   22.71    11) boozer,carlos         Cle  29.35
 12) kirilenko,andrei      Uta   22.39    12) kirilenko,andrei      Uta  28.90
 13) davis,baron           NOr   22.35    13) camby,marcus          Den  27.99
 14) marion,shawn          Pho   21.91    14) ming,yao              Hou  27.90
 15) wallace,ben           Det   21.29    15) gasol,pau             Mem  27.76


 :ph34r:

Note: the current MyTendex formula is:
 (PTS - FGmsd - (FTmsd/2) + 0.5*m3 + 1.25*st + 1.25*as + bl
  + reb - 1.25*to - tc - 2*ff - pf/2) /
                GamesPlayed)
 
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Offline spursfan101

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Is Peja a top 10 player?
« Reply #11 on: February 19, 2004, 04:27:23 PM »
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Offline Randy

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Is Peja a top 10 player?
« Reply #12 on: February 19, 2004, 04:32:42 PM »
Quote
Quote
So what, exactly, would it take to convince you? Maybe a scientific comparison system that uses a player-rating system based on various offensive and defensive statistics? Where players can increase their scores with every contribution they make to the game? Would something like that affect your opinion of Peja, if he ranked high on it?
You mean a system like this:

        Player             Team MyTend          Player             Team Tend/48
  1) garnett,kevin         Min   33.30     1) garnett,kevin         Min  40.15
  2) duncan,tim            San   28.30     2) duncan,tim            San  35.50
  3) brand,elton           LAC   26.53     3) o'neal,shaquille      LAL  33.75
  4) mcgrady,tracy         Orl   25.89     4) brand,elton           LAC  32.71
  5) stojakovic,predr      Sac   25.06     5) kidd,jason            NJN  31.25
  6) o'neal,shaquille      LAL   24.84     6) mcgrady,tracy         Orl  31.18
  7) kidd,jason            NJN   24.50     7) stojakovic,predr      Sac  30.25
  8) miller,brad           Sac   23.94     8) miller,brad           Sac  29.97
  9) nowitzki,dirk         Dal   23.55     9) cassell,sam           Min  29.91
 10) marbury,stephon       nyk   23.08    10) nowitzki,dirk         Dal  29.38
 11) cassell,sam           Min   22.71    11) boozer,carlos         Cle  29.35
 12) kirilenko,andrei      Uta   22.39    12) kirilenko,andrei      Uta  28.90
 13) davis,baron           NOr   22.35    13) camby,marcus          Den  27.99
 14) marion,shawn          Pho   21.91    14) ming,yao              Hou  27.90
 15) wallace,ben           Det   21.29    15) gasol,pau             Mem  27.76


 :ph34r:

Note: the current MyTendex formula is:
 (PTS - FGmsd - (FTmsd/2) + 0.5*m3 + 1.25*st + 1.25*as + bl
  + reb - 1.25*to - tc - 2*ff - pf/2) /
                GamesPlayed)
The only problem with your MyTendex is that it has the ability to skew some players ability based on what team they play on.  It also does almost nothing to gauge defensive ability (which completely favors players like Dirk and Peja).  

Brad Miller is having a great year but his MyTendex wouldn't be nearly as high with many other teams as it is with the Kings -- he gets a lot of easy baskets and wide open looks at the rim.  Same isn't true with players like AI, TMac, Pierce, etc. who are the entire focus of the other teams defense.  I think it's important to keep that in mind when you look at your MyTendex and remember that it's not a completely fair system or formula.

Offline Lurker

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Is Peja a top 10 player?
« Reply #13 on: February 19, 2004, 04:55:16 PM »
It does take into account defensive measurements...things like steals, rebounds, blocks and fouls.  Of course it doesn't take into account non-measurable defensive abilities.  But it also doesn't take into account non-measurable offensive abilities.  And team style does impact the formula, of course, but then fast paced teams can also result in more missed shots, more turnovers  and other negatives that would reduce their value.

BTW it isn't a system that I developed but that others more advanced in statistical analysis have come up with.  And it is widely considered one of the best comparisons of contributions by players based on MEASURABLE stats.  Especially the per 48 minute value.

Another site & another measurement:
Player Plus/Minus Stats (Last 30 Days)
82games publishes daily updates of the season-to-date floor time stats for players, including the +/- number, the team offense, defense, and net per 48 minutes of playing time, and a game-by-game won-lost record for the player based on the plus/minus score in the specific game.
However, while the season tally is important, with all of the upheaval in the NBA both coaching and player moves, it's often valuable to take a more recent look at how teams are performing with certain players on the court.

To the left then are links to pages for each team showing the relevant "last 30 days" floor time stats, which covers the games played from Tuesday, January 13th through Wednesday, February 11th.


"Top 40" Players Rank Player Team +/- W L W%
1  Kidd NJN +155 13 3 81%
2  Jefferson NJN +143 12 4 75%
3  Garnett MIN +111 13 4 77%
4  Cassell MIN +108 13 3 81%
5  Miller SAC +104 12 3 80%
6  Stojakovic SAC +97 9 5 64%
7  O'Neal IND +95 10 3 77%
8  Best DAL +95 13 1 93%
9  Jamison DAL +94 9 4 69%
10  Posey MEM +94 10 4 71%
11  Foster IND +94 10 3 77%
12  Bibby SAC +94 11 3 79%
13  Hassell MIN +92 12 5 71%
14  Tinsley IND +92 11 3 79%
15  Gasol MEM +91 9 4 69%


Again Peja ranks in top 10.....
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Offline JoMal

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Is Peja a top 10 player?
« Reply #14 on: February 19, 2004, 05:06:29 PM »
The CBS SportsLine Player rankings takes into account all factors of every player, including, it should be noted, the number of games in which they actually play. These rankings include defensive stats as well.

These rankings are:

1. Garnett - rating = 94.45
2. McGrady - rating = 88.69
3. Duncan - rating = 86.93
4. Stojakovic - rating = 85.89
5. Marion - rating = 84.59
6. Pierce - rating = 82.46
7. Marbury - rating = 82.29
8. Nowitzki - rating = 81.46
9. Cassell - rating = 80.49
10. Randolph - rating = 80.20

Because of games missed, neither Shaq nor Kobe are on this list, and they certainly would both be there otherwise.

How did the others listed fare using this formula?

11. Jason Kidd - rating = 80.03, making him the third best point guard.
17. Jermaine O'Neal - rating = 78.87, making him the sixth best power forward
27. Allan Iverson - rating = 76.08, making him the sixth best shooting guard
44. Yao Ming - rating = 72.17, making him the second best center (after Dirk)

Shaq came in as the fourth most effective center (68.54) only because of the games he missed, as Kobe did coming in as the 13th best shooting guard (69.35), but there is some validity to taking that into consideration. You can't be affective if you are not playing.

But the point is, does Peja qualify as a top ten talent in the League? Even with Shaq and Kobe healthy and playing the majority of their games, Peja would not fall off this list. None of the other players who have missed as many games as these two would bump him off either, if they had been healthy.

Since this list ranks players on both offensive and defensive statistics, clearly WOW's original list is based on other criteria rather then hard evidence, which is fine, except it can not necessarily be backed up.

As for the question, would Sacramento make a straight up trade with the Lakers for Kobe? Probably. After all, they BOTH are top ten players in the League, aren't they?  

Here is the link, BTW:

http://www.sportsline.com/u/partners/aol/f...rtsline.com/nba
« Last Edit: February 19, 2004, 05:08:28 PM by JoMal »
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