Predictions/Discussions for the Magic series

[RickyPryor]

I completely agree with this approach. 

It's Hedo and Lewis shooting from outside that will do us in, if anything will. 

Exactly.

Hence the need to make Howard a non factor down low.  Then we can afford to play these guys outside.

[rickortreat]

The more I look at this, the better I'm feeling about the Sixers.  Their last loss to the Magic was very close
and if not for a string of three pointers they made they would have lost. Until then they had been control of the game, doing a very good job of answering every Magic score with one of their own.

The question is can the Magic "turn it on" any time they want, or did the Sixers just go through a cold spell while the Magic got lucky with some desperate shots?

At their best this season, the Sixers were good enough to beat Orlando. If they can get to that level they can win.  The problem is they haven't been playing that way for quite some time. 

Every time, I look at our starters vs. theirs, I keep thinking the Sixers are better.  Lewis had a better year than Young, but right now I'd take Thad over him as the better player.  Same with Hedo and Iguodala. Alston isn't anywhere near as good as Miller and Lee is no better than Green.  Howard is way better than Dalembert but that's only one out of 5.  Put it this way, it's very close in terms of scoring averages, etc. 

It's our bench that has to make the difference.  I figure our starters should be able to keep is in the game, and it will be up to Williams, Speights and Marshall to give us the scoring edge.  In that last game in February, none of these players were a factor and we lost a close one.  If two of them can step up and give us significant production; 10 or more each, the Sixers should win.  That doesn't seem like an impossible task, Williams can go off for 20 by himself.   

The problem with a young team is you just can't be sure which team is going to show up.  But for this group this is their 2nd playoff run.  Only Speights wasn't around.  This may give them the sense of urgency they need - jump on the Magic while Hedo and Lewis aren't 100%. If they can steal one in Orlando and put the Magic on their heels, this series could become very interesting.

[WayOutWest]

Howard is shooting 57% from the field so you are actually worse off putting him on the line. 

That's incorrect.  Especially when you consider that a field goal is worth two; and a foul shot one.

 

You're making the common mistake when it comes to this discussion.  If you play Dwight strait up for 100 possesions he gets 100 FG attempts.  If you play "Hack-A-Dwight" he gets 200 FT attempts for those same 100 possesions.

Do the math, I'm am correct.  100 possesions = 100 FG attemps or 200 FT attempts.

100 X 57%FG = 57 shots made X 2 points = 114 points
200 X 59%FT = 118 shots made X 1 point = 118 points

[DuckyNinja]

Howard is shooting 57% from the field so you are actually worse off putting him on the line. 

That's incorrect.  Especially when you consider that a field goal is worth two; and a foul shot one.

 

You're making the common mistake when it comes to this discussion.  If you play Dwight strait up for 100 possesions he gets 100 FG attempts.  If you play "Hack-A-Dwight" he gets 200 FT attempts for those same 100 possesions.

Do the math, I'm am correct.  100 possesions = 100 FG attemps or 200 FT attempts.

100 X 57%FG = 57 shots made X 2 points = 114 points
200 X 59%FT = 118 shots made X 1 point = 118 points

To be fair, that's not exactly fair either WoW.  Even if you play him straight up, he's going to get some and-1s, that would probably end up giving him more points on FG attempts + and-1 FTs.  That being said, the 10 point difference or whatever it would be would be offset and more by having to play weak defense due to foul trouble.

[RickyPryor]

You're making the common mistake when it comes to this discussion.  If you play Dwight strait up for 100 possesions he gets 100 FG attempts.  If you play "Hack-A-Dwight" he gets 200 FT attempts for those same 100 possesions.

Do the math, I'm am correct.  100 possesions = 100 FG attemps or 200 FT attempts.

100 X 57%FG = 57 shots made X 2 points = 114 points
200 X 59%FT = 118 shots made X 1 point = 118 points

The 'common mistake' is yours, I'm afraid.

I never promoted sending him to the line 100 times.  Never even promoted fouling the guy.  Let alone "Hack-A-Dwight".

Once again:

I said play him aggressive, for the purpose of denying him receipt of the ball; after all - that will reduce the need to sag, we have expendable fouls should that occur, AND he sucks from the line.

Better than allowing him receipt at 3 feet where he shoots 57%.

[DuckyNinja]

The Magic are beatable, but the Sixers haven't figured out a way this season. Whenever I think of teams that are a matchup problem for the Sixers, I think of the Magic and their style of play. With injuried to two of their starters, however, the Sixers may have a chance after all.

One thing the Sixers do have going for them is youth and athleticism. A short-handed magic team might be run into the ground.  The only player the Sixers don't have an answer for is Dwight, but he isn't a huge scorer for them anyway. I like Iguodala and Young over Turkogulo and Lewis.  I also think Miller is a better player than Alston.

It's a matter of which team can force the other one out of their comfort zone on offense. Orlando doesn't have great one on one players, but they can all spot up and shoot. if the Sixers can avoid switching and play their men straight up and not help, they should be able to get stops.

On offense, if Young continues to play as he has, I think the Sixers are unstoppable, provided Dileo manages the team properly.  With Iguodala and Young in the lineup the Sixers are very difficult to defend. They can both shoot from the outside and drive the lane and finish.  They will draw extra defenders and there should always be an open man. I was hoping to see something of a post-up offense, but they rarely gave Speights the chance.  In fairness, he is a little too weak and gets pushed around by other players. On the other hand, he has the moves, and is able to convert at the line as well.

It's no secret that when he is in the game, Iguodala and Young both start looking to pass as well. The Sixers seem to have a shortage of players willing to simply spot up and make shots. I would have liked to have seen more of Donyell at the end of the season, to finally put the whole offense together, but the Sixers coaching staff seems clueless.  It's frustrating when it appears they have the pieces but don't put them together, or keep them on the floor very long.

With Miller, Iguodala and Young all putting up 20+ the Sixers should be close.  They will obviously need scoring from Williams, Green and Speights, plus some three's from Marshall. They can do that, but probably not enough times to win the series. Unless the Sixers can jump on them early and steal a game there, Orlando will take them out in 5 or 6.

I agree with some of this, especially the part about using our "athleticism".  But my take on it would be to use that attribute for the purposes of good defense.  These guys shoot well, especially from downtown.  We need to get out (and stay out) on them outside.  And while I know the goal is to try to play smash-mouth with Howard...for me, that means deny, deny, deny.  That way there's less need for our 'd' to sag...thereby leaving the oputside guys open.

Howard is the guy you want to play agressively, and so our combo of Sam, Reggie and Theo (and their 18 fouls between them) should be rotated constantly.  Put that fella on the line; let him shoot his 59% from there instead of from 2 feet.

I also wouldn't mind seeing him in foul trouble for a couple of these games.  We don't have the low post guy for that...but we do have slashers like LWill, Iggy and Miller.  Go at him.

Emphasis added for purposes of proof.

[RickyPryor]

Emphasis added for purposes of proof.

...or do you mean added for purposes of dwelling on some argument I'm not making.  Get over it.  You know my point - I've stated it 80 times now.

If you disagree with it, say so.  But if you misunderstood my continuing point...or if I wasn't clear during one of those 80 times...none of that matters: I've told you the point I'm making.

Argue it, agree with it, or go try to pick a fight with someone else.

[WayOutWest]

Howard is the guy you want to play agressively, and so our combo of Sam, Reggie and Theo (and their 18 fouls between them) should be rotated constantly.  Put that fella on the line; let him shoot his 59% from there instead of from 2 feet.

The 'common mistake' is yours, I'm afraid.

I never promoted sending him to the line 100 times.  Never even promoted fouling the guy.  Let alone "Hack-A-Dwight".

No, no mistake here.

I'm not arguing how often you send him to the line, my point is 59% FT > 57% FG, nothing mistaken about that fact.  Don't know why people try to argue otherwise, people incorrectly think a team will out score a guy shooting in 50's from the FT line.

The fact is that Dwight will beat you from the FT lline more consistently than from the floor. 

[RickyPryor]

I'm not arguing how often you send him to the line, my point is 59% FT > 57% FG, nothing mistaken about that fact.  Don't know why people try to argue otherwise, people incorrectly think a team will out score a guy shooting in 50's from the FT line.

The fact is that Dwight will beat you from the FT lline more consistently than from the floor. 

Nowhere do I see where you argue that we should play him aggressively so as to take the pressure away from our perimeter defenders.  Which, of course, is the only point I'm making.

And so, yes.  You are still not grasping the point.

And so I'm done making it.  Let's just watch the game, shall we?

[WayOutWest]

I'm not arguing how often you send him to the line, my point is 59% FT > 57% FG, nothing mistaken about that fact.  Don't know why people try to argue otherwise, people incorrectly think a team will out score a guy shooting in 50's from the FT line.

The fact is that Dwight will beat you from the FT lline more consistently than from the floor. 

Nowhere do I see where you argue that we should play him aggressively so as to take the pressure away from our perimeter defenders.  Which, of course, is the only point I'm making.

And so, yes.  You are still not grasping the point.

And so I'm done making it.  Let's just watch the game, shall we?

You are trying to side skirt your comment, the comment may have not been the entire point of your post but that was an incorrect point made in your post. 

I'm done, try this for a start (There are much more detailed discussions on that board regarding FT% vs FG% in other threads):

http://forums.phillyarena.com/index.php?topic=5026.0