NBA playoff thoughts

[WayOutWest]

In MY order of likely finishes:

Kings: With Webber, yuck!  WithOUT Webber, yummmmm (that yummm is for that pillow biter flamer sf101)  When the Kings are on they are probably the favorites because you can't really defend them in crunchtime.  It's like Kareems skyhook, the Kings are going to get the crunchtime shot, no matter what you do, it's only a matter of wether or not that make it.  I don't think anyone is going to be able to defense their pick and roll offense in the playoffs so you're going to have to count on their poor defense and cold outside shooting to beat them.

Wolves: WFT?  These guys could be lethal to their opponents or to themselves, not sure which.  I think jn is right about Kandi's effect on them.  They look lost at times and other times they look downright unbeatable with KG as the workhorse and SamIAm as the closer.  These guys could go either way, 1st/2nd round exit or NBA champ, I have no idea.

Lakers: thier defense sucks and their crunch time offense is looking more like the 1999 version that got swept by the Spurs.  Devean George is utterly useless, this guy needs to ride the pine in favor of Fox and Walton.  It's good to see Malone back in action but I still don't like PJ's substitution patterns.  I'd like to see Karl on the floor when Shaq is not more often.  Two of the big floor should be on the court at all times unless it's a blow out or they're in foul trouble.  At this point I'd give Karl and Kobe the early breather and have them come in when GP and Shaq come out.  I just don't like the groups that get put on the floor at times.  Shaq's FT's seem to be getting worse and worse.  Kobe is inconsistent because of injuries and his court case, which by the way could cause him to miss tonights game.  I really can't complain about GP too much, he's being asked to do too much.  I like what I see from Fox, Walton and Rush, although Rush has gotten his minutes slashed.  Fisher is a non-factor and I would put him in the liability catagory at this point.  I'm not liking or betting on the Lakers future at this point.

Spurs: yuck, nothing to see here.  Timmy needs to get back to his old self for them to have a shot.  The Spurs biggest strength, a strength NO OTHER of the top teams have is their CONSISTANT defensive game.  That should keep them in the hunt and if Timmy can once again dominate I put them in 2nd or 3rd spot depending on what Wolve's and Kings team shows up for the playoffs.

Dallas: I'm not seeing enough of their "junk" defense to give them a legit shot of getting out of the 2nd round.  Last year in the playoffs they were able to make defensive stands for several possesions against the Kings and Spurs.  A combo of zone and double teamns in their man to man defense gave them a legit shot in the playoffs.  With the personnel changes this year I don't think they have it in them for either side of the court in the playoffs.

The rest could make some noise, Grizz anyone, but VERY unlikely.

EDIT: OOPS!  Order should be Kings/Wolves/Lakers/Spurs/Dallas

[spursfan101]

Dude, your such an ass, you know I haven't been a pillow biter since my high school days! :angry:  :lol:  :blink:  

[Lurker]

IMO the seedings will end up:
Kings
Wolves
Lakers
Spurs
Grizzlies
Mavs
Rockets
first round fodder (Utah right now, Portland possibly by 4/16, Nuggets no way)

The Rockets and Grizzlies will give the Wolves & Spurs fits but I look for the top 4 to advance to the second round.  Lakers/Wolves will be a close series if Minny can hold onto home court but I think the Lakers will win.  Playoff experience will be the edge for the Lakers.  Minnesota's best chance...go up 2-0 on their homecourt and steal 1 of 2 in LA.  I don't see the Wolves giving up a 3-1 advantage this year.  Lakers will need to find the desire to play a more consistent defense to reclaim the throne.

Spurs/Kings have proved over the past couple years that homecourt doesn't matter....great defense & great offense can be played on any court.  Key to this series for the Spurs will be the production of Hedo/Manu/Horry.  Key for Sacto will be if Adelman solves their current malaise....they are strong enough to get past the #8 seed but will struggle against any of the top seeds if not corrected.

I think many here are still underestimating the Spurs once the playoffs start.  This team is very similar to the one that won last year.   There is a lot of big game experience in the starting 5 as well as the top reserves.  They may go 4-2 or 4-3 through every series but in the end all that matters is the 4 wins per series.

 

[WayOutWest]

Miny has never been up 3-1 on anybody, so not shure what you meant by that comment.

IMO the Spurs are underestimating the loss of D-Rob.  Rasho is still a stiff who's only contribution to defending the rim will be giving fouls, not actually intimidating.  Every center the Spurs face will be to their disadvantage with the possible exception of Grizz and Utah.  Timmy cannot carry the the Spurs on BOTH sides of the court and expect to get very far in the playoffs, that's just too much work and the teams are just too good this year.

Whoever ends up the 4 & 5 seeds this year will have a near impossible task to come out of the west.  I'm keeping my fingers crossed that the Lakers hold on but they have the toughest remaining schedule of the top teams.  I think it's like 10 of the last 14 are against winning teams and 8 of those 10 are against playoff teams.  I'm shocked the Lakers are in this good of a position considering the have had the worst run of injuries this year, the Kings could lay claim to that distinction as well.  Wolves have been riddled but not truely at the starting 5.

The other thing to possibly look out for is the wheels comming off the Mavs.

This is going to be one exciting playoff year!

[spursfan101]

Say what you want, NO DOMINATE team will emerge, these are all going 7 games, and the majority will be decided in the final quarter. SA and LA will meet in the WC Finals, Sac, Dal and Twolves will be out in the early rounds.

[WayOutWest]

The more and more I think about it the more and more I get an uneasy feel about a 1st round exit for the Lakers.    

I need to shut off my brain and stop thinking, can we start talking politics again?   :blink:  

[Randy]

The more and more I think about it the more and more I get an uneasy feel about a 1st round exit for the Lakers.    

I need to shut off my brain and stop thinking, can we start talking politics again?   :blink:

Okay, Lurker, I don't know how you got signed in under WOW's registered name and avatar but stop it!

[JoMal]

Depending on whether or not the Kings can solve their current offensive problems going into the playoffs will greatly dictate how the playoffs will go. They actually play the Lakers fairly tough, and the Spurs obviously can have some problems with the Kings executing their offense. The Wolves, unfortunately, give the Kings fits. If SacTown faces them, I would have to bet on Minnesota.

The Lakers are not as deep as even last year, and that will be a problem in a tight series. The Spurs clearly are not the force without D-Rob, and it shows up offensively. Defense will keep them competitive, but either the Kings or Wolves should prevail in a seven game series. The Lakers, this year, should be able to take out the Wolves or Spurs, but the Kings are another story - again, based on if they can get back to their true offense.

Yes, it is a toss up depending on which Western team really brings their best game. Any of them can be out in the first round, which will throw the second round games up for grabs. Should be interesting.  

[WayOutWest]

The more and more I think about it the more and more I get an uneasy feel about a 1st round exit for the Lakers.     

I need to shut off my brain and stop thinking, can we start talking politics again?   :blink:

Okay, Lurker, I don't know how you got signed in under WOW's registered name and avatar but stop it!

Dude...they're like totally SCREAMING for a first round upset.  The Lakeshow's switch might not get turned "on" until the face one of the other big 5, if they wait for that it might be too late.  My hope is that they face Utah or the Rockets in the first round if they're seeded higher than #4 because Osterbiznatch and Hype Ming bring out the monster in Shaq.

JoMal, I totally disagree with you regarding the Lakers dept, this is the deepest team since 2001 when they went 15-1 and the are comporable to the NVE/EJ/Lynch/Peeler days of old regarding dept.  IF only they had a decent coach back then we'd be talking about the Celtics 8Peat record being in jepordy!  :angry:  

[WayOutWest]

Yes, it is a toss up depending on which Western team really brings their best game. Any of them can be out in the first round, which will throw the second round games up for grabs. Should be interesting.

Q: what if EVERYONE brings their A game?

I'd bet the Lakers but DON'T call me a HOMER mmmmmkay!  :rolleyes:  

[Lurker]

Rasho is still a stiff who's only contribution to defending the rim will be giving fouls, not actually intimidating.

4.6 def rebs and 2.03 blocks and 3.0 fouls in 28.9 minutes.  Sounds like a terrible post defender.  Let's see what all those other western centers are accomplishing:

Divac  4.1 reb  .89 blks  2.8 fouls  29.7 min
Shaq  7.7 reb  2.51 blks 3.2 fouls  36.2 min
Yao    6.6 reb  1.83 blks 3.2 fouls  30.8 min
Wright (Mem)  4.7 reb   .96 blks  2.9 fouls  26.2 min
Minn:  Johnson 36 starts, Kandi 25 starts
Johnson  2.5 rebs  .64  blks  2.3 fouls  14.3 min
Kandi     3.7 rebs  1.56 blks  2.9 fouls  21.0 min


I left off the center for Dallas because defense and Dallas don't belong in the same discussion.  And it appears that Rasho is getting outplayed defensively by basically one western center (Shaq) and is about even with Yao.  But you have to remember that Rasho also plays with the #3 rebounder in the league so I'm sure that impacts his rebound totals just a little.

[WayOutWest]

Rasho is still a stiff who's only contribution to defending the rim will be giving fouls, not actually intimidating.

4.6 def rebs and 2.03 blocks and 3.0 fouls in 28.9 minutes.  Sounds like a terrible post defender.  Let's see what all those other western centers are accomplishing:

Divac  4.1 reb  .89 blks  2.8 fouls  29.7 min
Shaq  7.7 reb  2.51 blks 3.2 fouls  36.2 min
Yao    6.6 reb  1.83 blks 3.2 fouls  30.8 min
Wright (Mem)  4.7 reb   .96 blks  2.9 fouls  26.2 min
Minn:  Johnson 36 starts, Kandi 25 starts
Johnson  2.5 rebs  .64  blks  2.3 fouls  14.3 min
Kandi     3.7 rebs  1.56 blks  2.9 fouls  21.0 min


I left off the center for Dallas because defense and Dallas don't belong in the same discussion.  And it appears that Rasho is getting outplayed defensively by basically one western center (Shaq) and is about even with Yao.  But you have to remember that Rasho also plays with the #3 rebounder in the league so I'm sure that impacts his rebound totals just a little.

Come on B, Elton Brand get's 2.3 blocks per game but he's not a defensive pressence at the rim.  On the flip side Shaw Bradley only gets 1.1 blocks per game but he obviously bothers shooters near the rim.

From the games I've seen Rasho sucks compared to DRob as the last line of defense.

[Randy]

Depending on whether or not the Kings can solve their current offensive problems going into the playoffs will greatly dictate how the playoffs will go. They actually play the Lakers fairly tough, and the Spurs obviously can have some problems with the Kings executing their offense. The Wolves, unfortunately, give the Kings fits. If SacTown faces them, I would have to bet on Minnesota.

The Lakers are not as deep as even last year, and that will be a problem in a tight series. The Spurs clearly are not the force without D-Rob, and it shows up offensively. Defense will keep them competitive, but either the Kings or Wolves should prevail in a seven game series. The Lakers, this year, should be able to take out the Wolves or Spurs, but the Kings are another story - again, based on if they can get back to their true offense.

Yes, it is a toss up depending on which Western team really brings their best game. Any of them can be out in the first round, which will throw the second round games up for grabs. Should be interesting.

This year vs, last year

2003
PG – Gary Payton, Derek Fisher, Jannero Pargo
SG – Kobe Bryant, Kareem Rush, Bryon Russell
SF – Devean George, Rick Fox, Luke Walton
PF – Karl Malone, Horace Grant, Brian Cook
C  - Shaq, Stanislav Medvedenko, Jamal Sampson

2002
PG – Derek Fisher, Brian Shaw, Jannero Pargo
SG – Kobe Bryant, Kareem Rush,
SF – Devean George, Rick Fox, Tracy Murray
PF – Robert Horry, Mark Madsen, Samaki Walker
C – Shaq, Medvedenko, Soumaila Samake

So, Brian Shaw is better than Gary Payton?
Or is Tracy Murray and upgrade over Bryon Russell and Luke Walton?
Or perhaps it’s Samaki Walker and Mark Madsen over Horace Grant and Brian Cook?
Nobody hates losing Robert Horry more than I do but is he an upgrade over Karl Malone?
Or maybe it’s that Samake is better than Sampson (I saw Samake play one game all year long).

Don’t have a clue, JoMal, how you think that the Lakers were deeper last year than this year.
 

[JoMal]

This year vs, last year

2003
PG – Gary Payton, Derek Fisher, Jannero Pargo
SG – Kobe Bryant, Kareem Rush, Bryon Russell
SF – Devean George, Rick Fox, Luke Walton
PF – Karl Malone, Horace Grant, Brian Cook
C - Shaq, Stanislav Medvedenko, Jamal Sampson

2002
PG – Derek Fisher, Brian Shaw, Jannero Pargo
SG – Kobe Bryant, Kareem Rush,
SF – Devean George, Rick Fox, Tracy Murray
PF – Robert Horry, Mark Madsen, Samaki Walker
C – Shaq, Medvedenko, Soumaila Samake

So, Brian Shaw is better than Gary Payton?
Or is Tracy Murray and upgrade over Bryon Russell and Luke Walton?
Or perhaps it’s Samaki Walker and Mark Madsen over Horace Grant and Brian Cook?
Nobody hates losing Robert Horry more than I do but is he an upgrade over Karl Malone?
Or maybe it’s that Samake is better than Sampson (I saw Samake play one game all year long).

Don’t have a clue, JoMal, how you think that the Lakers were deeper last year than this year.

Brian Shaw better then Payton? No, I preferred Shaw to Fisher, who is this year's backup. Payton is the starter now, remember, and Fisher was your starter last year.

While Walton is better then Murray, your starter and backup - George and Fox - are both not playing as well as they were last year.

Grant and Cook versus Madsen and Walker? Walker was a starter much of last year, who has now been replaced by Malone, and Horry was last year's backup, who was better then Grant and Cook.

The backup centers are better this year, but with Shaq as the starter, it matters very little anyway.

Rush is still the backup at SG. Still either hot or cold so a wash.

Your achilles heel looks to be small forward until Walton gets into the lineup. Fox still has the savvy but looks to have lost a step, while George has plateaued.  

[WayOutWest]

Your achilles heel looks to be small forward until Walton gets into the lineup. Fox still has the savvy but looks to have lost a step, while George has plateaued.

By plateaued do you mean useless pile of dirt?

You've basically pointed out that the Lakers are better and deeper at every position than last year, and pretty much for the last 4 years.

Horry was a starter for most of the year which is why he was worn out by the time the playoffs rolled around, Samaki was useless the combo of Malone/Grant/Cook is clearly better than Samaki/Horry.

The Lakers basically have the same SF's as last year, Fox lost a step two years ago, he's pretty much getting to par lately.  George has always been useless in my book, Walton is a huge upgrade IMO except behing the arc and perimeter D, something Devean has forgotten to do for the last 40 games.